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Official Game Thread: Week 4, #9 Florida Gators 34, Tennessee Volunteers 3 9/21/19

Discussion in 'Gator Football' started by Escambia94, Sep 17, 2019.

  1. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator



    On September 21, 2019, the University of Florida will honor Steve Spurrier's 1994 SEC championship team on the traditional Third Saturday in September against rival Tennessee. In 1994, the #1 Gators traveled to the newly upgraded Neyland Stadium to take on the #15 Volunteers and crush Volunteers 31-0. This was the first time that Spurrier defeated Tennessee in Knoxville as a Gator coach, and the second time as coach overall (Duke, 1982 as offensive coordinator). Fast forward to 2019 where the Tennessee program is in a tailspin and the Gators are favored by 14 at home.

    The Florida Gators lead the all-time series 28-20-0 in a rivalry that goes back to the Southern Intercollegiate Athletic Association in 1916 (later the Southern Conference in the 1920s, and finally the SEC in 1932).

    #9 Florida Gators (3-0, 1-0 SEC) vs. Tennessee Volunteers (1-2, 0-0 SEC)

    ESPN Play-by-Play: Bob Wischusen Analyst: Dan Orlovsky Reporter: Allison Williams Channel (Cox): 26 / 1026 [HD] Channel (DirecTV): 206 [HD]

    Gator IMG Sports Network Play-by-Play: Mick Hubert Analyst: Lee McGriff Sideline: Tate Casey Station Freq.: Local Affiliates Sirius Channel: 119 / XM 191


    September 21 // 12 p.m. // Gainesville, Fla. Ben Hill Griffin Stadium (88,548)

    Historical Meetings
    1 October 28, 1916 Tampa, Florida Tennessee 24 Florida 0
    2 October 22, 1921 Knoxville, Tennessee Tennessee 9 Florida 0
    3 December 8, 1928 Knoxville, Tennessee Tennessee 13 Florida 12
    4 December 6, 1930 Jacksonville, Florida Tennessee 13 Florida 6
    5 December 3, 1932 Jacksonville, Florida Tennessee 32 Florida 13
    6 October 28, 1933 Knoxville, Tennessee Tennessee 13 Florida 6
    7 October 26, 1940 Knoxville, Tennessee #5 Tennessee 14 Florida 0
    8 October 14, 1944 Knoxville, Tennessee #15 Tennessee 40 Florida 0
    9 November 15, 1952 Knoxville, Tennessee #7 Tennessee 26 #18 Florida 12
    10 November 14, 1953 Gainesville, Florida #18 Tennessee 9 Florida 7

    11 November 13, 1954 Knoxville, Tennessee Florida 14 Tennessee 0
    12 November 12, 1955 Gainesville, Florida Tennessee 20 Florida 0
    13 December 27, 1969 Jacksonville, Florida #14 Florida 14 #11 Tennessee 13
    14 October 24, 1970 Knoxville, Tennessee #11 Tennessee 38 Florida 7
    15 October 2, 1971 Gainesville, Florida #12 Tennessee 20 Florida 13

    16 October 23, 1976 Knoxville, Tennessee #11 Florida 20 Tennessee 18
    17 October 22, 1977 Gainesville, Florida #19 Florida 27 Tennessee 17
    18 October 13, 1984 Knoxville, Tennessee #18 Florida 43 Tennessee 30
    19 October 12, 1985 Gainesville, Florida #7 Florida 17 #14 Tennessee 10

    20 October 13, 1990 Knoxville, Tennessee #5 Tennessee 45 #9 Florida 3
    21 October 12, 1991 Gainesville, Florida #10 Florida 35 #4 Tennessee 18
    22 September 19, 1992 Knoxville, Tennessee #14 Tennessee 31 #4 Florida 14
    23 September 18, 1993 Gainesville, Florida #9 Florida 41 #5 Tennessee 34
    24 September 17, 1994 Knoxville, Tennessee #1 Florida 31 #15 Tennessee 0
    25 September 16, 1995 Gainesville, Florida #4 Florida 62 #8 Tennessee 37
    26 September 21, 1996 Knoxville, Tennessee #4 Florida 35 #2 Tennessee 29
    27 September 20, 1997 Gainesville, Florida #1 Florida 33 #4 Tennessee 20

    28 September 19, 1998 Knoxville, Tennessee #6 Tennessee 20 #2 Florida 17OT
    29 September 18, 1999 Gainesville, Florida #4 Florida 23 #2 Tennessee 21
    30 September 16, 2000 Knoxville, Tennessee #6 Florida 27 #11 Tennessee 23

    31 December 1, 2001 Gainesville, Florida #5 Tennessee 34 #2 Florida 32
    32 September 21, 2002 Knoxville, Tennessee #10 Florida 30 #4 Tennessee 13
    33 September 20, 2003 Gainesville, Florida #12 Tennessee 24 #17 Florida 10
    34 September 18, 2004 Knoxville, Tennessee #13 Tennessee 30 #11 Florida 28

    35 September 17, 2005 Gainesville, Florida #6 Florida 16 #5 Tennessee 7
    36 September 16, 2006 Knoxville, Tennessee #6 Florida 21 #17 Tennessee 20
    37 September 15, 2007 Gainesville, Florida #3 Florida 59 #22 Tennessee 20
    38 September 20, 2008 Knoxville, Tennessee #4 Florida 30 Tennessee 6
    39 September 19, 2009 Gainesville, Florida #1 Florida 23 Tennessee 13
    40 September 18, 2010 Knoxville, Tennessee #10 Florida 31 Tennessee 17
    41 September 17, 2011 Gainesville, Florida #17 Florida 33 Tennessee 23
    42 September 15, 2012 Knoxville, Tennessee #18 Florida 37 #23 Tennessee 20
    43 September 21, 2013 Gainesville, Florida #19 Florida 31 Tennessee 17
    44 October 4, 2014 Knoxville, Tennessee Florida 10 Tennessee 9
    45 September 26, 2015 Gainesville, Florida Florida 28 Tennessee 27

    46 September 24, 2016 Knoxville, Tennessee #14 Tennessee 38 #19 Florida 28
    47 September 16, 2017 Gainesville, Florida #24 Florida 26 #23 Tennessee 20
    48 September 22, 2018 Knoxville, Tennessee Florida 47 Tennessee 21

    49 September 21, 2019 Gainesville, Florida

    Florida comes into this game ranked #9 after a tough road victory against Kentucky. Tennessee is coming off a victory over an FCS team. Florida is #13 in the Sagarin ratings, and Tennessee is #92. The Gators are 3-0 by a thin margin defined by a couple key plays, so the Gators need to clean up their execution and live up to their expected level of performance. The Gators are favored by 14 and the over/under is at 48.5. I predict a 32-21 victory for the Gators.
     
  2. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    We have a TON of reasons to be "confident" going into this one (in the Swamp, no less)--which means, all in all, that we had best just settle down and TAKE CARE OF BIDNESS, friends!
    Our freshly-installed no-longer-backup QBs (plural intentional) will lead a kind of early-millenial replay of the pre-Tebow offense, I think: It MIGHT be exciting and fun-to-watch, should it all go smoothly--but it's a bit early to begin crowing about it.
    Aw, truth is I'm mostly just throwing that idea out there--No telling HOW Coach/offense-innovator Dan Mullens will exploit the overall situation, but I am confident that he WILL somehow.
    Long as we are calm and composed in our preparations and approach here, we should be fine as far as coming out victorious here in Week 4.
    If anything, the biggest danger in my view would be in being TOO careful in this one; All signs point to an opportunity for us to get our offense fully untracked in ALL phases--get a lead early, then STEP ON THEIR NECKS!!!
    We'll TAKE any sort of win, obviously, but here's a chance at showing ourselves and everyone ELSE that we are still well-stocked, that we can and SHOULD be capable of stomping a lesser SEC opponent with the personel we have by now assembled on BOTH sides of the ball.
    Yes, there are some thinner components, but on the whole we are BETTER THAN THE VOLS. Period. We should beat them handily in the Swamp.
     
  3. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    Todd Helton before he became a long-time Colorado Rockie. Also before Wuerffuel took over.

    Also another SEC Shorts because why not?

     
    • Funny Funny x 1
  4. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Florida's offense is ranked #17 in the nation. Tennessee's defense is ranked #39. Edge: Florida.
    Florida's defense is ranked #11 in the nation. Tennessee's offense is ranked #59. Edge: Florida.
    Florida's receivers have graded out at 95.4% this year. Tennessee's secondary has graded out at 84.9%. Edge: Florida.
    Florida's offensive line has graded out at 82.0% this year. Tennessee's defensive line has graded out at 84.8%. Edge: Tennessee.
    Florida's defensive line has graded out at 84.8% this year. Tennessee's offensive line has graded out at 87.5%. Edge: Tennessee.
    Florida's secondary has graded out at 84.5% this year. Tennessee's receivers have graded out at 89.6%. Edge: Tennessee.
     
  5. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Just goes to show ya:
    Statistics can be completely misleading.
    Or not.
    Hard to say going INTO this one. The overal "eye test" says that we should handle THIS Vols squad with EASE, based on what we have seen so far: Even with our injuries and at times apathetic onfield performance and inconsistency, we are clearly the better team, top to bottom. I tend to be pessimistic, overly negative in my general early-season assessments--but I cannot help but expect a solid win.
    Despite all that has happened TO us, I think we will take this one handily; We are BETTER than we have shown--while Tennessee is, if anything, weaker even than their actual play has indicated.
    We are better than Tennessee--This is a perfect opportunity for us to SHOW it, and circumstances coalescing to motivate us.
     
  6. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    "Trap Game". "Early Kick Off".
    Yes. All the pundits are warning us about this--recalling our travails with early-starting games.
    Thing is, I expect Mullens to at least TRY to take ADVANTAGE of the very same "warnings". We're a 14-pt favorite--and Tennessee is DEFINITELY BETTER than they've shown so far... Nonetheless, I am still confident--as long as Mullens' diabolically creative imagination is able to manifest itself successfully in our offensive gameplan. I believe he will go for the early lead--stun them, "early and often", if we can--then make it stick in the 2nd half.
    The general observation is that as a team we start slowly, consistently FALL BEHIND EARLY in the early kick-off games...
    With "everyone" talking about it, you really think staff and players aren't aware of all this too? Rather than ignore it, I expect Mullen & Co. to somehow seize on it as an "opportunity", try and USE it as a motivational ploy--"Gonna jump on them from the START here!" kind of thing...
    And that tends to feed on itself, if/when it gets any kind of traction at all.
    This is a pivotal game in BOTH teams' seasons, so getting out in front and staying there is EXACTLY what we wanna do and how we wanna feel about where we are at, and where we're headed now.
     
  7. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Anyone besides me SPLIT INSIDE over this one? Yes, I feel we can and SHOULD take control and pull away early--yet, at the same time, I am worried: Our recent history in early-starting games, AND having just lost the leader of our offense and (by all accounts) emotional heart of our whole team puts us in a precarious position... Yes, Kyle Trask filled in admirably, finishing with a flourish and a victory and seemingly ready to carry on in similar fashion--but nothing is guaranteed. A so far mostly-inept Tennessee could go a long way towards steadying THEIR ship, along with their fans' hysteric views of a season already going down in flames by somehow managing a sudden win this weekend in the Swamp. It is up to OUR guys to rally together themselves, overcome THEIR losses and setbacks and bring home a solid win.
    I still say a big first quarter, wherein we hit them for some early scores, then ram it down their throats before they have a CHANCE to think they have any business being on the same PLAYING field is still the order of the day.
    "Step on their necks!" I think is the way I put it before. Yeah, that'd be the way to go here.
    I'd rather NOT get entangled in another "close one", thank you very much.
     
  8. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member


    Last I checked, the Gators are 3-0 and the Vols 1-2. Just saying.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  9. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Yes--but I just DON'T want OUR guys (who hear and read all that via the "social media", make no mistake) thinking that way: They need to be looking to rededicate themselves and the SEASON to avenging their "fallen leader"--and THIS game is the first step in realizing all the goals they came into the campaign carrying next to their hearts. It will take that kind of determined and sustained effort to make this a special one after all.
    All the MORE so now.
    The dumbest thing that could happen now is for us to get swelled heads, overlook the challenge directly in front of us and proceed to stumble over what IS a slightly desperate Volunteer squad that comes into our house hoping against HOPE it can somehow rise above its own sinking expectations and simply SAVE ITS SEASON by knocking off "that Top Ten Gator team that has been consistently beating on us in what was ONCE a rivalry!!!"
    You think they haven't circled this game? All the MORE so now.
    As I say, we must quickly disbuse them of the whole idea that they have ANY sort of chance coming in: Bust the game open early, then run it up if we can.
    "Step on their necks!" is how I put it elsewhere, and I still believe it is what we should aim for from the start here.
    All the MORE so now.
     
  10. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Point of order. The term "trap game" is overused. Here is the official definition of "trap game" or a "letdown game":
    1. A trap game involves a suspiciously heavy underdog, generally greater than 14 points in football or basketball or one where Las Vegas applies a large handicap.
    2. A trap game occurs before a higher profile game where it can be assumed that the favored team was overlooking the current game
    UF vs UT is not a trap game. I am not saying we should not be concerned, but to call this a trap game is to say that Florida is looking ahead to Towson. If Florida loses this game, it is not because of a trap, but because it was overvalued leading up to this point, or that the loss of its QB was too much to overcome. Franks' yards above replacement (YAR) is just under 1.2, which is #3 in the SEC behind Tagovailoa (2.94) and Burrow (2.75), and above Fromme (0.95 to 1.0). Based off a single quarter, Kyle Trask's YAR is about 1.14, which would be #4 behind Franks if we assume the YAR will translate over multiple games.

    Dan Mullen is 4-1 against the spread (ATS) over the last five SEC openers at Florida and Mississippi State. Tennessee is 5-10 ATS over its last 15 SEC match-ups. Tennessee is 4-4-2 ATS against the Gators over the last 10 meetings. In Las Vegas, this game will not count as a trap game. Vegas did not even handicap Florida with the -14 line for inserting a backup QB, because the backup is statistically close to the starter. Tennessee is at +14 because it lost to Georgia State (unranked Sun Belt team that went 2-10 last year) and BYU (unranked Independent that went 7-6 last year).

    Bottom line: regardless of who wins this game, it is not a trap game. If Florida loses, it is because it was overvalued, not that they overlooked Tennessee for Towson. If Florida wins, nobody is going to say that they escaped a potential upset.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  11. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    No arguments here. These statistics just mean that the Gators have been underperforming with the talent they have, which we as Gator fans could generally agree with. Based on talent, Florida should have passed for more yards against Miami and Kentucky, and certainly should have run for more yards against Miami and UT Martin. Tennessee is still 0-2, because what little talent they have actually performed well statistically with talent they have (if that makes sense).
     
  12. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    OK: How about we consider that "underperforming" on UF's part so far:
    How about our disappointing lack, but NOT so much in the passing game (certainly Trask got it done there when called upon, and Franks was generally looking GOOD before getting hurt--we are currently SET at WR, and now we appear to have a good tight end once more in Pitts, and a QB who actually LOOKS for him as an outlet), but rather in our RUNNING game thus far? That O-line hasn't dominated ANYBODY, and until they begin to gel as a unit we'll need Tomey back and our other "FAST backs" available to provide a counter-punch to Perrine.
    I'm not writing them off, mind you, but we need SOME kind of running game, like, NOW. I like our chances with Trask and Jones running a Mullens hybrid spread--but they will still require a steady run game to make it all work.
    Fortunately, our defense is still a force to be reckoned with: I foresee Grantham's attackers bringing misery to that Tennessee offense, with sacks and potential INTs in the offing.
    All in all, if we can just bring some calm balance to the offensive game plan we should come out of this one with a decent win.
    There are no guarantees, however: Neither as a team or its fans should we take ANYTHING for granted: This is the SEC and these "visitors" have nothing to lose--like UK last week they have now circled this one and must look at it as "do or DIE"... Still: We should win games like this one, even down a few stars and with that (supposedly dreaded) "early starting time".
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  13. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    (...See y'all tomorrow morning!)
     
  14. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    (I just deleted a bit of a rant on my part--one where I more or less "faced facts" regarding where we THOUGHT we were heading into the season and ACCEPTING where we actually ARE, as things have appeared to be turning out...all a bit premature, I suppose--to say the LEAST.
    So I guess I'll leave all that aside for now--at least til after this game, anyway.
    We've still got some work to do--or at least Dan Mullens and Co. does.
    Even coming INTO this season I said that our ONLY chance to "arrive early", to achieve the kinds of things that were otherwise 2 or 3 seasons away, was if Franks absolutely FULLY BLOSSOMED, fully came into his own, AND virtually the whole rest of the team stayed HEALTHY. Turns out NEITHER happened; we know that much already.
    So: Where does that leave us? Well, let's see how "the team remaining" performs tomorrow. Never mind all the blah blah blah: An SEC rival with talent and ABSOLUTELY NOTHING TO LOSE is coming to town for an EARLY GAME at our place. I don't want to hear anymore from friend or foe about what we face and what it means, regardless of the outcome. I just wanna see US come out and handle our business. THEN perhaps I'll have something to say about this team--where it's at and where it's heading.
    Right now, I just don't KNOW.)
     
  15. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    @Escambia94,

    OK OK You are right: THIS IS NOT A "TRAP GAME".
    NO. It is a big, deep pile of sticky, stinky poo that we may be about to carelessly traipse directly into THE MIDDLE OF!
    Of course, it is also ANOTHER game that may well be ugly--but that won't matter if we WIN. Seems like that more and more characterizes EVERY (Gator) GAME SO FAR THIS SEASON, looking back. If ever there were a college football season shaping up to embody that famous old Al Davis line (ie."Just WIN, baby."), this may be IT.
    That was more or less arguably one of the goals of NCAA's move towards a Football Final Four ("FFF"): To bury the "Beauty Pagaent" and more and more move to a "prove it on the field" Championship.
    One thing to consider, though: TT and others have already warned against certain "unintended consequences" arising as a result of "good intentions" (in that case, dangers inherent in certain aspects of "pay for play"; I am FOR a certain loosening of the restrictions on players access to profits made on their likeness and/or fame--but also acknowledge the need for caution: We don't necessarily WANT college football to go the way of the NFL in any but the most general of ways--specifically in settling on a "Championship Game" and "Team" at the end of each college football season.
    I know you are aware of the danger and distinctions, E-, and that your ideas here take such things into account.
     
  16. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    45 min to kickoff, College Gameday on already but me, I'M watching our gang (Finebaum, Tebow et al) over on SEC Nation, at least til the top of the hour and kickoff...
    I'm tempted to go back to bed at that point...Just (mostly) kidding--but the closer this one gets, the less certain I am about where we are headed this particular Saturday. After LAST Saturday and its agonizing ebb'n'flow somehow leaving us with a win that DIDN'T seem headed our way--courtesy of a fairly absurd script, truth be told, well, I don't wanna see us playing this one scared, but we have little right or claim to arrogant confidence either.
    Frankly, I don't have any idea of HOW I should feel, what sort of mood the team will be in come the "EARLY KICKOFF".
    I'd LIKE for US to be the team that's "loose", come in playing it free'n'easy from the start--but I'm afraid if we start out tight, that it'll more likely be Tennessee that buys into that "nothing to lose at THEIR place!" attitude...and we'll have to take it AWAY ftom them as the game goes on.
    I hope I'm wrong--but I just have a strong sense that THAT is how the game shapes up for the two squads coming IN. That DOESN'T mean we can't seize control, though. We have done it, made a HABIT of it lately DESPITE slow starts: we know we can DO it--and even down a few weapons we have the talent to pull it off once again.
    I just would prefer it if we simply came home and handled our business. Above and beyond all the talk talk talk, I believe that player-for-player (and even more so Coach for Coach!) we STILL are the better team. But it is the EMOTIONAL HEALTH of the two respective squads that are in question and will make the difference.
    I'm not gonna even hazard a guess as to how THAT shakes out: Either we will very shortly fimd out we had little to worry about and (even before this one's over) we can turn to looking ahead and getting healthy for the "meat" of our SEC schedule, or all the bangs, bruises, slings and arrows of outrageous fortune finally catch up with us today and we find ourselves switching off early in sad frustration as we realize that this season, program amd TEAM will have to be reevaluated and reapproached in another, more "retrenching and rebuilding" context the rest of this season, anyway.
    We will know soon enough, as I say.
    "Just WIN, baby."
     
  17. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    I got my beer ready.
     
  18. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    That was a classic "Vanilla Gator Drive"!
     
  19. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    That was the sharpest the Gators have looked in a while!
     
  20. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Gators left the secondary exposed after a blitz.
     

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