November 16, 2019 at 12:00 PM EST, Columbia Memorial Stadium, Columbia, Missouri
CBS TV: Carter Blackburn, Rick Neuheisel, Aaron Taylor, John Scriffen
IMG Radio/ WRUF: Mick Hubert, Lee McGriff, Tate Casey
Sirius XM: 135/ 192
Florida is favored by 7, with the over/under at 48 points.
The Florida Gators (8-2, 5-2) head into Columbia to face the Missouri Tigers (5-4, 2-3) for their final SEC East game, and final game in the "Tiger series" (Towson, Auburn, LSU, Missouri). The Gators are #10 in the CFP rankings, one spot ahead of their ranking this time last year. The Gators have been ranked in the top 10 in 11 of the last 13 AP Top 25 polls, which is their longest stretch since 2012-2013. Florida's passing offense is ranked #25 in the nation, which is the highest it has been ranked since 2010, and the first time it has been ranked in the top half of the nation since 2011! The Gators have no realistic shot at the SEC East title and an opportunity to play in the SEC championship game, but they are in the hunt for a second consecutive New Year's Six bowl game (likely against Penn State) if they win out. The last time the Gators had back-to-back NY6 bowl games was 2008/ 2009 (BCS National Championship Game and Sugar Bowl). The Gators have just one NY6 bowl game appearance since then--the 2013 Sugar Bowl.
The Gators have 2,475 yards passing, which is the first time since 2009 that the Gators had more than 2,300 yards at this point in the season. Kyle Trask is one of 27 FBS quarterbacks to throw 19 touchdowns this year, and he is one of only five to do so in under 240 attempts. Trask is the first Gator quarterback to throw for 300+ yards multiple times this year since Tim Tebow, and the first since Chris Leak to do so against SEC opponents. Trask's 363 passing yards were the highest for a Gator since Tebow threw for 482 against Cincinnati in the 2010 Sugar Bowl, and was the highest total against an SEC opponent since Rex Grossman threw for 375 against Kentucky in 2002. Trask joins Leak as the only Gators to throw for 300+ yards in multiple games in a season, and as the only Gators to do so against SEC opponents.
Florida has eight different players with 150+ receiving yards for the first time since 1992. Florida is one of six teams with at least four receivers with 375+ yards, 25+ receptions, and 3+ touchdowns. The Gators are one of the five most explosive passing offenses in the nation with 8+ plays of 60+ yards (6 from NFL Draft eligible upperclassmen). Kyle Pitts is one of four FBS tight ends with 5+ games of 60+ yards, and is one of three Gator tight ends with 5+ in a career. He is also the fourth Gator tight end to record 100+ yards receiving since 1996.
Florida has the sixth-best kicker, fifth-best punter, and overall top-5 special teams in the nation.
The Gator defense is third in "havoc rate" with 21 takeaways--14 by interception.
The Gators are outscoring opponents 113-29 in the fourth quarter, 203-66 in the second half (compared to 130-84 in the first half). The Gator defense works best in the Red Zone, where they are fifth in the nation in opponent Red Zone touchdown percentage and sixth in overall Red Zone defense. Overall, the Gator defense is ranked ninth in the nation in scoring defense.
Although the rushing game has been frustratingly inconsistent, the Gators have set a single-season record with 3 rushing plays of 75+ yards. Until this year, the 1982 Gators and the 2008 Gators held the record with 2 such plays. Lamical Perine's 88-yard touchdown against Auburn was the fifth-longest in Gator history and longest since Emmitt Smith ran 96 yards against Mississippi State in 1988.
The Gators have scored in 395 consecutive games, which is an NCAA record.
Missouri is looking to end a three-game slide where they have been outscored 21-77. Missouri can easily point out the injury to Kelly Bryant. Taylor Powell and Connor Bazelak are barely serviceable at quarterback, so if Bryant is not healthy then expect the Tigers to run Larry Rountree all day. Tyler Badie and Dawson Downing will help take the load off Rountree against a good Gator defense. Missouri is 5-0 when running for more than 165 yards, but Florida has only allowed more than 140 yards to LSU and South Carolina. The Tiger defense has no pass rush to speak of, so they will depend on a decent pass defense to control the Gator offense.
As long as the Gators do not fumble or throw the ball away as they typically do against Mizzou, the Gators should win this one 32-10.