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GameDay: "Mizzou vs Florida in the Swamp" Saturday Nov.3 (Noon Eastern)

DRU2012

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I know--I'm putting this one up early even for ME--but it IS an early start, damn near in the MORNING even there on the East Coast...and with things so strangely quiet for the most part here at GE the last 12-to-24 hours, I'll be bowing out now and may not be around early in the morning when presumably y'all start showing up to begin figuring this game.
I'm not one to call the score, as you know, so I'll just go with my usual subjective overview: This is when the 2012 Gators show what they're really made of. If they are "losers" like some have judged them they will continue to flounder, last week's dismal showing just the opening display of an ongoing collapse. If they are just a young team whose, flaws, uncertainties and inexperience suddenly merged, multiplied and WRECKED them like a perfect storm, then these coaches will be able to guide them through it and beyond, they'll come out back on their feet, a little shaky early perhaps but able to get back on track and make some things happen fairly quickly...That will feed on itself: they will soon take over the game and dominate it.
Now, I believe strongly that it would be best, for their own sake and that of the fans, if they were to open things up offensively through the air, throw the "Big Punch" early and throw this opponent back on its heels--get a lead fast and THEN start to wear them down at the point-of-attack on BOTH sides of the ball as these Gator lines are capable of doing, especially when relatively healthy and working against match-ups in which they hold the edge, as should be the case here. That having its risks, however, may NOT be the road chosen by the Head Coach--whom I respect, trust and admire immensely, btw, but that doesn't mean he is always right: While there may seem a safer road, sometimes "Fortune follows the brave"...and this team is in dire need of BOTH, bravery AND good fortune, right about now. I'm not saying they can't "get there" that other way, just that in the pain and confusion after a hard fall, there is sometimes opportunity in a sudden devil-take-the-hindmost mad rush back over and through to a new place of promise and confidence. With a season now teetering on the edge, between success no longer completely achievable on their own and more disappointment only they can save themselves from, this may well be one of those times.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I am still stewing from last week--not because of the loss, but due to the way Florida lost. Last week's game reminded me that today could easily be a repeat of any game from the past two years when an inferior team could have a good day in terms of execution, luck, or referee calls. I can only hope that the pep talks from motivational speaker and Chad Ochocinco Johnson helped the team psyche for today.

That being said I have no idea what to expect today. The Gators are favored by 16.5 to 17 points. Jeff Sagarin has the Gators winning by 21.

Against common opponents, the lessons learned are that the Gators need to get Gilly running and they cannot turn the ball over. Common opponents this year:
  • Georgia. Mizzou was shredded 41-20 as neither team offered up any defense. Both QBs threw for about 250 yards, 2-3 TDs, and an INT in that game. Neither team ran well against one another. Florida coughed up the ball 6 times in its 9-17 loss against a team not known for having a favorable turnover margin. Mizzou did turn over the ball 3 times to Georgia's 2. This just validates the old theory of taking care of the ball. Common point differential (CPD) = 6.5.
  • South Carolina. This game is a better preview of how Florida should fare against Mizzou. If Florida can keep Franklin under 100 yards passing and right at 100 rushing, or some split of 200 yards total offense, the Gators can win using a similar game plan as SC. SC won its game against Mizzou 31-10. Florida beat SC 44-11. CPD = 27.
  • Vanderbilt. Mizzou only lost 15-19, and it lost with its backup QB. Florida allowed its first 4th quarter points in this game, but won 31-17. This common opponent really does not tell us anything, other than reassuring fans that Florida can have a very Vandy-like day and beat the Mizzou backup QB. CPD = 9.
  • Kentucky. Mizzou notched its first SEC win over the might Wildcats of basketball powerhouse Kentucky, 33-10. Enjoy those t-shirts, fellas. Florida smashed football cellar dweller Kentucky 38-0. Florida won this one without much output from Gilly. Mizzou needed its running game to come to life in order to win this one with its backup QB. Mizzou won its UK game by stripping the ball, grabbing interceptions, and snatching fumbles. This game is a reminder that Florida cannot turn the ball over and expect the defense to keep them in the game--especially without an offense to speak of. CPD = 7.5.
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
First off, Whoop! Whoop! Whoop! WARNING! WARNING! Whoop! Whoop! Whoop! Injury/Sickness Alert:
This Gator squad was hit with a flu-bug this past week...a rolling wave struck on staggered days to different individual and pairs of players...I have sworn not to dwell on LAST week's result here, so I won't bother suggesting the possible pre- and post-game implications of now knowing such a powerful virus was stalking our team for some days before now--only note that while it is expected to keep just one player, D-lineman Orr, out of the game itself, it is difficult to project what post-afflicted effects there will be on the team (and HOPE they weren't what somehow similarly affected LAST week's performance)...
What I "got" in the end from E-'s notes and stats above is an impression that seems to validate my own cautious "feel" for what's coming, and the bottomline possibilities as to how it could turn out: We're about to find out a good deal about what REALLY happened to and with our team last Saturday, and if I'm right about it being NOT "the beginning of collapse" but rather " a confused and ill-timed stumble", then we'll see some version of a Gator "return to form". The really interesting question, should this last be the case, will be which form it will take: a seemingly slightly shaky start, with our running game slowly established while our D holds us tight until we get rolling, slowly at first, then ever more steady and dominant, not looking real good in the early going but by the 2nd half building to a "convincing" final score, OR (it is my HOPE) an early sharp club to their heads, using the long pass to shock them, score early and quickly, energizing our team AND the Swamp and, with them back on their heels and unsure, a version of the running game that now includes a controlled passing game if/when they continue to "pack the box" (as I think THEY think they pretty well HAVE to do to stop us), until they are forced to drop out of it and play us "honest", allowing us to then settle in to dominate the line-of-scrimmage and run-shorten the rest of the game. Whew! Of course, I don't have any idea which of ANY of those will actually happen.
OK--there's MY take at just over 5 hours to KO...Y'all hash it all out and we'll get to it shortly (MAN I'm glad we don't have to wait all day for this one!). With some hungover hesitancy and shaken shyness I am ready once more to proudly cry, "GO GATORS!"
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Another point-worth-noting while we're waiting for this thing to get cranked up: Mizzou got their 1st SEC win courtesy of Kentucky's careless "generosity", and our 1st loss of course came with our losing more fumbles in one game than we'd lost all year up 'til then. You think they won't be punching and twisting and grabbing at the ball when we have it? Ball Security!!! Back to proper Technique--the good news being that when the less-talented team starts going after the ball with less and less "proper technique" themselves for basic things like, say, tackling, the runners and receivers (OUR runners and receivers) start breaking away for big gains and scores. First, though, HOLD ONTO THE DAMN BALL!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Agreed. Take care of the ball, and the Gators will win (with or without an offense).
 

InkedAdrenaline

VIP Member
CHOMP CHOMP

uploadfromtaptalk1351955845643.jpg
 

DRU2012

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There Early, IA? Nice. Don't forget about us later as things get crazed--and THANX!
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
Aw HELL...I am only "drivable" (barely) again in the last day or so--and even THAT is not safe with my standard-shift Firebird (broken left patella), only automatics, and even that "unofficial"/NOT "Dr.-approved")--and I am being enlisted/drawn into helping in one of those "minor emergencies" that girlfriends' families somehow always involve us in...it'll mean an hour away from here "sometime soon" and NOT according to MY schedule or convenience--so I apologize in advance (while I swear, bitch and moan at it to myself, the walls of my "Fortress of Solitude" and y'all) that I will be in all likelihood leaving soon for an hour or so. DAMN--the first half will tell the story this week, I feel, in fact it'll be BAD news if things DON'T change from the pre-Jacksonville pattern of us running around mainly disorganized until the 2nd half.
OK--just forced the issue here a bit and got things going NOW: I should be back by the 2nd quarter, I HOPE.
See ya...GO GATORS!!!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I am watching online for as long as I have wi-fi signal. It's not looking good right now. The Mizzou defense all of a sudden is looking like an SEC defense. They are getting good penetration. Florida will have to get rid of the ball quickly, and get it down the field.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Mizzou just punched the ball out of JD's hands on a scramble. Lucky for Florida, it went out of bounds.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Sturgis FG blocked. His ankle was injured before this one, and the ball came out low. He was the first to fall on the blocked ball, but this spells doom for the kicking game today.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Franklin fools the Gator D by pretending to go out of bounds, then gaining another six for the 1st down.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Nothing is working, guys. Offense, defense, special teams all look nervous or broken-hearted.
 

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