Week 9: #10 Florida 41, Missouri 17 - 10/31/2020

[Escambia94]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1320733254094180353?s=20[/TWEET]

The #10 Florida Gators (2-1) return to the Swamp after a two-week hiatus caused by a COVID outbreak to face the Missouri Tigers (2-2). The Gators are favored by 13.5 and the O/U is at 61.5. The game will be on SEC Network at 7:30 PM. Honorary Mr. Two Bits will be Gator Great Jack Youngblood.

The Gators are coming off their first loss of 2020, and are 3-1 following a loss under Dan Mullen. The Gators' 127 points through three games are its most in any three-game stretch since they scored 129 points against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama in 2008. After an abysmal decade of offense, the Gators have now surpassed 400 yards 14 times in 20 games. The Gator Raid offense is #4 in the nation with 7.6 yards per play, which is over a yard per play more than they were in 2019 and half a yard better than their best average in history (2009, 7 YPP). The Gator offense also seems to be working a lot better under newly promoted offensive coordinator, Brian Johnson, which is currently #10 with 42.3 points per game, and climbing above #8 since the start of the 2018 season among all Power Five conferences. Before Mullen's arrival, the Gator offense averaged #110 in the nation with 23.1 points per game. Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts have combined for 11 TD receptions, which exceeds the total scored by Missouri, Mississippi State, or Vanderbilt. The Gators are the only FBS team to have two players with 4 TD receptions in fewer than 4 games. The Gators' 312 passing yards in the losing effort at Texas A&M marked their 11th 300-yard passing game under Dan Mullen, which matches the total number of 300-yard passing games the Gators had after he left UF in 2008 and returned as head coach in 2018. Similarly, the Gators had 8 500-yard passing games since Mullen arrived and the same number without him this past decade!

The Missouri Tigers have a history of defying the odds and beating the favored Gators. The Tigers are 2-2 all-time in the Swamp and 5-4 against the Gators in all venues.

• 2019 UF 23, Mizzou 6 (Columbia)
• 2018 UF 17, Mizzou 38 (Gainesville)
• 2017 UF 16, Mizzou 45 (Columbia)
• 2016 UF 40, Mizzou 14 (Gainesville)
• 2015 UF 21, Mizzou 3 (Columbia)
• 2014 UF 13, Mizzou 42 (Gainesville)
• 2013 UF 17, Mizzou 36 (Columbia)
• 2012 UF 14, Mizzou 7 (Gainesville)
• 1966 UF 18, Mizzou 20 (New Orleans)

Comparing the stats for both teams does not tell the whole story about this matchup, but here is a quick snapshot anyway:

• PPG/F: UF 42.3, Mizzou 24.0
• PPG/A: UF 33.3, Mizzou 31.0
• TY/F: UF 464.0, Mizzou 418.3
• TY/A: UF 495.0, Mizzou 365.0

The Gator offense is one of the best in the nation, believe it or not. The Gators are 6th in SP+, 6th in success rate, 20th in explosiveness, 22nd in rushing (believe it or not), and 5th in passing. The Gators absolutely need to get better at converting 3rd downs where they average 8.8 yards to go. The Mizzou defense is not necessarily good at everything, but they have been okay at 3rd down: #17 at 3rd-and-medium or #48 at 3rd-and-long. The Tigers will likely win this game if they can keep Florida at 3rd-and-long while controlling the clock. Historically, turnovers play a role in this game and this year the Gators have been turning over the ball in critical moments. Pertinent statistics are below:

• Passing efficiency
  1. Graham Mertz Wisconsin 273.0
     
  2. Justin Fields Ohio State 237.1
     
  3. Mac Jones Alabama 212.8
     
  4. Zach Wilson BYU 210.4
     
  5. Grayson McCall Coastal Carolina 197.0
     
  6. Kyle Trask Florida 196.00
• Receiving TD
  1. Jaelon Darden WR UNT 10
  2. Terrace Marshall Jr WR LSU 9
  3. Jonathan Adams Jr WR 7 / Kyle Pitts TE 7
• All Purpose Yards - #32 Kadarius Toney 60 Rush YD, 237 Rec YD, 42 Punt Ret YD, 40 KO Ret YD

The Gator defense is horrendous by Florida standards, but is okay weighed against all of FBS with a #26 SP+. The gaping weakness is run defense, where opponents have a 55.8% success rate--50% on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. The Gators do not allow big plays, but on 2nd-and-long and 3rd/4th-and-short the Gator defense is allowing a 52.6% success rate. Pertinent statistics are below:

• Passes defended - #3 (tied with 13) Kair Elam 6 PBU

For some reason the O/U on this game implies a high score despite Florida averaging 10 possessions per game and Missouri possessing about 11 possessions a game, with Florida averaging 6 points per scoring opportunity and Mizzou averaging 4 points per scoring opportunity. This implies a score between 60-44 and 30-22 (avg 45-33), or that Mizzou needs to exceed its 2020 scoring rate by 1.5X. The statistical rankings below imply that Florida has an edge over Missouri.

• Passing offense - #10 Florida, #29 Missouri
• Total offense - #24 Florida, #42 Missouri
• Total defense - #93 Florida, #33 Missouri
  
• Turnover margin - #68 Florida -1, #80 Missouri -4
• Fewest Penalties - #15 Florida 4.33 pen/game, #31 Missouri 5.25 pen/game

Will the Gators have its best starters available for this game? Has the time off and the COVID impaired the team's ability to compete in the SEC? The Gators only have this game against Missouri to prepare for the make-or-break game against Georgia next week. I will go against the statistics and call this a 21-20 victory for the Gators despite the analytics pointing towards a 45-33 victory for the Gators in their homecoming game.

 

[Leakfan12]

I saw Brian Johnson's name looked him out. He was the quarterback of the Utah Utes after Alex Smith and he quarterback was the 2008 undefeated team that beat Bama in the Sugar Bowl that season. Also, he could be a future head coach soon.

 

[DRU2012]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1320733254094180353?s=20[/TWEET]

The #10 Florida Gators (2-1) return to the Swamp after a two-week hiatus caused by a COVID outbreak to face the Missouri Tigers (2-2). The Gators are favored by 13.5 and the O/U is at 61.5. The game will be on SEC Network at 7:30 PM. Honorary Mr. Two Bits will be Gator Great Jack Youngblood.

The Gators are coming off their first loss of 2020, and are 3-1 following a loss under Dan Mullen. The Gators' 127 points through three games are its most in any three-game stretch since they scored 129 points against Vanderbilt, South Carolina, and Alabama in 2008. After an abysmal decade of offense, the Gators have now surpassed 400 yards 14 times in 20 games. The Gator Raid offense is #4 in the nation with 7.6 yards per play, which is over a yard per play more than they were in 2019 and half a yard better than their best average in history (2009, 7 YPP). The Gator offense also seems to be working a lot better under newly promoted offensive coordinator, Brian Johnson, which is currently #10 with 42.3 points per game, and climbing above #8 since the start of the 2018 season among all Power Five conferences. Before Mullen's arrival, the Gator offense averaged #110 in the nation with 23.1 points per game. Kadarius Toney and Kyle Pitts have combined for 11 TD receptions, which exceeds the total scored by Missouri, Mississippi State, or Vanderbilt. The Gators are the only FBS team to have two players with 4 TD receptions in fewer than 4 games. The Gators' 312 passing yards in the losing effort at Texas A&M marked their 11th 300-yard passing game under Dan Mullen, which matches the total number of 300-yard passing games the Gators had after he left UF in 2008 and returned as head coach in 2018. Similarly, the Gators had 8 500-yard passing games since Mullen arrived and the same number without him this past decade!

The Missouri Tigers have a history of defying the odds and beating the favored Gators. The Tigers are 2-2 all-time in the Swamp and 5-4 against the Gators in all venues.

• 2019 UF 23, Mizzou 6 (Columbia)
• 2018 UF 17, Mizzou 38 (Gainesville)
• 2017 UF 16, Mizzou 45 (Columbia)
• 2016 UF 40, Mizzou 14 (Gainesville)
• 2015 UF 21, Mizzou 3 (Columbia)
• 2014 UF 13, Mizzou 42 (Gainesville)
• 2013 UF 17, Mizzou 36 (Columbia)
• 2012 UF 14, Mizzou 7 (Gainesville)
• 1966 UF 18, Mizzou 20 (New Orleans)

Comparing the stats for both teams does not tell the whole story about this matchup, but here is a quick snapshot anyway:

• PPG/F: UF 42.3, Mizzou 24.0
• PPG/A: UF 33.3, Mizzou 31.0
• TY/F: UF 464.0, Mizzou 418.3
• TY/A: UF 495.0, Mizzou 365.0

The Gator offense is one of the best in the nation, believe it or not. The Gators are 6th in SP+, 6th in success rate, 20th in explosiveness, 22nd in rushing (believe it or not), and 5th in passing. The Gators absolutely need to get better at converting 3rd downs where they average 8.8 yards to go. The Mizzou defense is not necessarily good at everything, but they have been okay at 3rd down: #17 at 3rd-and-medium or #48 at 3rd-and-long. The Tigers will likely win this game if they can keep Florida at 3rd-and-long while controlling the clock. Historically, turnovers play a role in this game and this year the Gators have been turning over the ball in critical moments. Pertinent statistics are below:

• Passing efficiency
  1. Graham Mertz Wisconsin 273.0
     
  2. Justin Fields Ohio State 237.1
     
  3. Mac Jones Alabama 212.8
     
  4. Zach Wilson BYU 210.4
     
  5. Grayson McCall Coastal Carolina 197.0
     
  6. Kyle Trask Florida 196.00
• Receiving TD
  1. Jaelon Darden WR UNT 10
  2. Terrace Marshall Jr WR LSU 9
  3. Jonathan Adams Jr WR 7 / Kyle Pitts TE 7
• All Purpose Yards - #32 Kadarius Toney 60 Rush YD, 237 Rec YD, 42 Punt Ret YD, 40 KO Ret YD

The Gator defense is horrendous by Florida standards, but is okay weighed against all of FBS with a #26 SP+. The gaping weakness is run defense, where opponents have a 55.8% success rate--50% on 1st down, 70% on 2nd down, and 100% on 3rd/4th down. The Gators do not allow big plays, but on 2nd-and-long and 3rd/4th-and-short the Gator defense is allowing a 52.6% success rate. Pertinent statistics are below:

• Passes defended - #3 (tied with 13) Kair Elam 6 PBU

For some reason the O/U on this game implies a high score despite Florida averaging 10 possessions per game and Missouri possessing about 11 possessions a game, with Florida averaging 6 points per scoring opportunity and Mizzou averaging 4 points per scoring opportunity. This implies a score between 60-44 and 30-22 (avg 45-33), or that Mizzou needs to exceed its 2020 scoring rate by 1.5X. The statistical rankings below imply that Florida has an edge over Missouri.

• Passing offense - #10 Florida, #29 Missouri
• Total offense - #24 Florida, #42 Missouri
• Total defense - #93 Florida, #33 Missouri
  
• Turnover margin - #68 Florida -1, #80 Missouri -4
• Fewest Penalties - #15 Florida 4.33 pen/game, #31 Missouri 5.25 pen/game

Will the Gators have its best starters available for this game? Has the time off and the COVID impaired the team's ability to compete in the SEC? The Gators only have this game against Missouri to prepare for the make-or-break game against Georgia next week. I will go against the statistics and call this a 21-20 victory for the Gators despite the analytics pointing towards a 45-33 victory for the Gators in their homecoming game.View attachment 538

Hope you’re right about the win...
Actually, though: EVERY game’s a “make or break game” now, let’s face it—this one in particular because of your musings regarding what harm, if any, that recent Covid-induced “lay off” did...but really, the specific question is whether (as a RESULT of that time off giving time and opportunity for the Coaches and players to redraw, retool, revamp and reMOTIVATE our DEFENSE, or that somehow happens “in SPITE of” that involuntary hiatus) that defense is “improved” after all.
If it is, we will win on Saturday and carry on from there: Face UGA in THAT “make or break” confrontation which, if we prevail in THERE our season is truly rejuvenated and everything looks different: There is a building wave of promise and optimism as we realistically face a chance to sweep on towards something special and exciting after all...
But until we get THERE, we just don’t KNOW “who we are“ or “what we GOT”!
As was basically the case when we exited the field at the end of that damning debacle in (the as it turned out NOT so aptly-named) “Kyle Field“ in College Station a few weeks back.
(And by-the-way, does THAT not feel like an eternity ago at this point?)

 

[DRU2012]

Sigh...Still a BUNCH of starters out for this one—and most of them on DEFENSE, where we can least afford it.
Don’t know about y’all, but I guess it won’t surprise you to hear that personally I am not expecting a whole lot of improvement, as a result.
If I don’t say much, it may or may NOT mean that I am not watching (GEEZ—2nd play and Cox is down!)...I just don’t see how the defense we’ve fielded so far this season can hold up against ANY middling SEC team right now...and we are DOWN ANOTHER 10 starters on that side of the ball. We will have to outscore teams to win ANY in this shape.
Not that we can’t—but it is a hell of an outlook from here.

 

[DRU2012]

Got a drive going with OUR first possession, though...I’d LOVE to see us add more of a running game than we’ve shown. So would Coach, I think—but so far hasn’t shown.
Oh—and our All American Kicker is out too! Geez, we will just HAVE to FLING IT AROUND ALL OVER THE PLACE!

 

[DRU2012]

Will we even TRY a fieldgoal today?

 

[DRU2012]

That was a wasted drive—but at least we managed the 3, in spite of everything.
But with our (lack of) defense, we GOTTA score TDS! (Yes, just call me “Master of the Obvious”!)

 

[DRU2012]

Yikes. There goes our leaky defense, giving up the big gadget play run.
Maybe best to say this now:
I have so little hope for much turning out well THIS season for our Gators now that I am starting to think that the only way I can even watch them is to look for isolated signs of strength—and look forward to the a future when we are healthy, balanced and can PUT IT ALL TOGETHER!
(But we stall their drive—and THEY miss THEIR “chipshot”...So maybe we CAN pull this one out, IF our passing attack CAN make enough plays after all!)

 

[DRU2012]

MAN, that “Kyle-to-Kyle Connection” is efficient! And now Pierce shows what HE can do! In the red zone again—but they MUST cash this in all the way!
NO!!!
This offense is doing ok—but then stoping THEMSELVES. This would be fine if we had a defense—but that is our problem, after all:
At THIS rate, we could easily lose another close one late.
That is the one thing I cannot stomach.
That’s the one kind of loss that, if repeated, COULD drive me away eventually—at least for the rest of THIS year.

 

[DRU2012]

Wouldn’t it be nice to see our DEFENSE score a TD??! A pick-six or scoop’n’score?

 

[DRU2012]

How did they miss the sack there?
Used to be an “automatic” once Grantham’s rushers broke in there!
Chased him outta bounds at least (secondary had their receivers covered), but we gotta start GETTING TO THE QB once more!

 

[DRU2012]

Emory Jones our too?
So the 3rd string kid in now—and he triggers the false start at the key moment...and now Trask’s arm is hit and he throws the pick 6.
I don’t believe it. We just found a NEW way to blow it—when we were already in a bind!
I think I’ll back off, shut up for a while. Maybe change my mind in 2nd half—IF we show an encouraging turn around between now and then.

 

[DRU2012]

I doubt I’ll be back. I won’t likely even watch this much longer: What I am seeing is our 2020 season, sinking over the horizon. Now we can’t even score
(Not on THEM, anyway—but we DID manage to GIVE them their points.

 

[DRU2012]

Can only say I summary, with 5 minutes still remaining in the first half:
Forget it, friends: We really do SUCK right now.
I suppose there are very real forces that have laid us low—and we are not alone in THAT. But in the final analysis, we just aren’t any kind of contender for anything but MEDIOCRITY right now.
And I’m afraid that NOW we’ll have to wait until NEXT season to even begin to see what we’ve got, where we’re going, and to begin to build again:
Yes: We’ll more or less be “starting all over again after all”!
It hurts to say it, but I am more and more convinced it is true.

 

[DRU2012]

And just like that, the Gators (finally) wake up! On BOTH sides of the ball.
And now maybe we go to the half with a two score lead. This is what we SHOULD be doing to everyone, all the time!

 

[DRU2012]

Gator D DEFINITELY playing better—in SPITE of set backs and missing pieces.

 

[DRU2012]

Back to sloppy blundering play.
Dumb penalty on run back; then officials blow another call OBVIOUS PI.

 

[DRU2012]

Dirty late hit on Trask after clock ran out on half. Officials didn’t throw a flag, so things immediately went outta control on field between the teams, throwing punches...Mullens LIVID at the late hit. This officiating squad doing a TERRIBLE job of DOING their jobs!
Fuck Mizzou. Now we have a REAL motivation to come out in the 2nd half and CLEAN THEIR CLOCKS!
I mean it: We get the BALL—and need to go after them IMMEDIATELY!
We have a real chance to put this one away pretty quick, if we do.

 

[DRU2012]

So now there are gonna be ejections—at LEAST “three” so far (including a Florida starter)—and they’ll be out for part of NEXT week too...PLUS whomever ELSE is punished might find themselves out of the UGA game now.
The STUPID part is that STILL no penalty on the listen hit that STARTED everything.
AND TONEY RUNS FOR ANOTHER TD!!!

 

[DRU2012]

So: That is JUST what we needed to do; and THIS one is beginning to look the way it SHOULD have looked all along.
But without all the crap that had us struggling at times AND led to that fiasco at the half...one which is going to affect our personnel NEXT week, damnit.