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Official Game Thread Week 4: #20 Florida Gators 33, #11 Tennessee Volunteers 38, 9/24/2022

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Escambia94

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Overview
The #20 Gators travel to Rocky Top to take on the #11 Tennessee Volunteers. This will be the first time in history that the Gators are double-digit road underdogs (DDRUDs) to the Vols.
  • 1992: @ FSU (+17.0, L 24-45)
  • 2000: @ FSU (+11.5, L 7-30)
  • 2003: @ Miami (+14.0, L 33-38)
  • 2003: @ LSU (+10.0, W 19-7)
  • 2011: @ LSU (+14.5, L 11-41)
  • 2013: @ USCe (+14.5, L 14-19)
  • 2014: @ Bama (+15.5, L 21-42)
  • 2016: @ LSU (+14.0, W 16-10)
  • 2019: @ LSU (+14.5, L 28-42)
  • 2022: @ UT (+10.0?, ?)
The Vols are favored by 10.5 and the over/under is 62. The Gators are 2-7 since 1990 when they are the DDRUD, including 2-2 against LSU, 0-2 against FSU, and 0-1 against Alabama, South Carolina, and Miami. The Gators have a 12.6% chance of winning based on FPI.

The Gators are riding a 5-game win streak against the Vols and are 31-20 all-time in a series that goes back to 1916. The last time Tennessee won was in 2016, a 38-28 victory in Knoxville where the #14 Vols outgained the #19 Gators 498 yards to 402 yards. Each team had 2 turnovers in that match-up, and the Gators had nearly twice as many penalty yards. The average score since that Gator loss is 35.2-15.4, but this game will be a completely different match-up between two coaches who have never faced each other. Billy Napier is 2-1 at Florida, 42-13 overall. Josh Heupel is 10-6 at Tennessee, 38-14 overall.

Keys to the Game
The UT stats may appear to be a bit padded after facing two cupcakes, Akron and Ball State. In week 2, the #24 Vols did squeeze out a victory in overtime against #17 Pitt. In that game the Vols only had 91 rushing yards, but they compensated with 325 passing yards. Having 7 penalties for 70 yards definitely did not help the Vols, but they took care of the ball and exploited the Panthers' turnovers. That same game plan could gash the Gators, who are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of turnovers, and are among the worst in defending the run when Ventrell Miller is injured. If Miller is out this Saturday, expect the Vols' running game to come to life. The Gators have the advantage in terms of speed, which they have not taken advantage of with an obviously injured Anthony Richardson and underused Trevor Etienne and Ricky Pearsall.
Team StatsUTUF
PPG/F52.025.3
PPG/A14.326.7
TOT YD/F553.7353.0
TOT YD/F PASS371.3141.0
TOT YD/F RUSH182.3212.0
TOT YD/A344.7373.3
TOT YD/A PASS261.3178.0
TOT YD/A RUSH83.3195.3


Key Personnel
Tennessee QB is the most efficient passer in the SEC with a rating of 176.1, including a rating of 145.0 against #17 Pitt. Gator RB Montrell Johnson is one of the most efficient backs in the nation with a 9.6 YPC average. When Richardson is not afraid to run, he is among the most devastating weapons in the nation with a projected 2.5 TD rushes per game. Gator WR Ricky Pearsall is among the most explosive receivers in the nation when Richardson puts his big boy pants on and throws him the ball, as Pearsall has a 17.1 YPC average. Tennessee has4 receivers with as many yards as Pearsall, and they are averaging just under 15 YPC among the four of them.
UTUF
QB H. Hooker 59-85, 844 YDS, 6 TD, 176.1 RATQB A. Richardson 41-77, 423 YDS, 4 INT, 89.0 RAT
RB J. Wright 45 CAR, 231 YDS, 3 TDRB M. Johnson Jr. 25 CAR, 240 YDS, 2 TD
WR J. Hyatt 18 REC, 267 YDS, 3 TDWR R. Pearsall 7 REC, 120 YDS

On defense the Gators have an advantage in the secondary, with their DBs being the leading tacklers and being among the leaders in sacks. Unfortunately, QB Anthony Richardson is among the leading tacklers for the Gators as well due to the interceptions. The Volunteer defense does get turnovers, which could be a problem for the Gators who love donating footballs to opposing defenses.
UTUF
LB A. Beasley 9 Solo, 13 Ast, 22 TotS T. Dean 16 Solo, 14 Ast, 30 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD
DB T. Flowers 9 Solo, 7 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 INTS R. Torrence 11 Solo, 11 Ast, 22 Tot
LB J. Banks 10 Solo, 4 Ast, 14 TotLB/JACK B. Cox 8 Solo, 13 Ast, 21 Tot
DB W. Burrell 8 Solo, 4 Ast, 12 Tot, 1 PDLB/STAR A. Burney 10 Solo, 6 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 INT, 10 Sack-Yd, 1 PD,
DB K. Hadden 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot, 2 PD, 1 INTLB/MIKE V. Miller 5 Solo, 10 Ast, 15 Tot, 1 PD
DB J. McCollough 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 TotDL G. Dexter 5 Solo, 7 Ast, 12 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD, 1 INT
DB C. Charles 4 Solo, 5 Ast, 9 TotDL P. Umanmielen 4 Solo, 7 Ast, 11 Tot
DL O. Thomas 3 Solo, 5 Ast, 8 Tot, 2 PD, 1 FRCB J. Marshall 5 Solo, 1 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 PD
DL T. Baron 3 Solo, 3 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 FFCB J. Kimber 2 Solo, 3 Ast, 5 Tot, 1 PD, 1 INT

On special teams the Vols have a reliable kicker who can make long field goals, just like Florida.
UTUF
PK C. McGrath 19/19 PAT, 3/4 FG, 1/1 50+ (51), 28 PTSPK A. Mihalek 7/7 PAT, 3/3 FG, 1/1 50+ (50), 16 PTS

Summary
Based on the statistics I would expect a 32-14 victory for the Vols. Based on the eye test, it could get uglier at 42-14. For the Gators, this game and this season all depend on what is going on between the ears of Anthony Richardson. If he can manage the game and not turn the ball over, I think the Gators can keep it close with defense and eke out a close victory. Nothing has shown that AR is there yet, which could be a bad sign for the Gators. The Gator fanatic in me holds onto a shred of optimism that Napier brought some voodoo magic with him from Louisiana and the Gators eke out a 33-30 game in overtime, but I would not hold onto that prediction.
 
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DRU2012

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Overview
The #20 Gators travel to Rocky Top to take on the #11 Tennessee Volunteers. This will be the first time in history that the Gators are double-digit road underdogs (DDRUDs) to the Vols.
  • 1992: @ FSU (+17.0, L 24-45)
  • 2000: @ FSU (+11.5, L 7-30)
  • 2003: @ Miami (+14.0, L 33-38)
  • 2003: @ LSU (+10.0, W 19-7)
  • 2011: @ LSU (+14.5, L 11-41)
  • 2013: @ USCe (+14.5, L 14-19)
  • 2014: @ Bama (+15.5, L 21-42)
  • 2016: @ LSU (+14.0, W 16-10)
  • 2019: @ LSU (+14.5, L 28-42)
  • 2022: @ UT (+10.0?, ?)
The Vols are favored by 10.5 and the over/under is 62. The Gators are 2-7 since 1990 when they are the DDRUD, including 2-2 against LSU, 0-2 against FSU, and 0-1 against Alabama, South Carolina, and Miami. The Gators have a 12.6% chance of winning based on FPI.

The Gators are riding a 5-game win streak against the Vols and are 31-20 all-time in a series that goes back to 1916. The last time Tennessee won was in 2016, a 38-28 victory in Knoxville where the #14 Vols outgained the #19 Gators 498 yards to 402 yards. Each team had 2 turnovers in that match-up, and the Gators had nearly twice as many penalty yards. The average score since that Gator loss is 35.2-15.4, but this game will be a completely different match-up between two coaches who have never faced each other. Billy Napier is 2-1 at Florida, 42-13 overall. Josh Heupel is 10-6 at Tennessee, 38-14 overall.

Keys to the Game
The UT stats may appear to be a bit padded after facing two cupcakes, Akron and Ball State. In week 2, the #24 Vols did squeeze out a victory in overtime against #17 Pitt. In that game the Vols only had 91 rushing yards, but they compensated with 325 passing yards. Having 7 penalties for 70 yards definitely did not help the Vols, but they took care of the ball and exploited the Panthers' turnovers. That same game plan could gash the Gators, who are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of turnovers, and are among the worst in defending the run when Ventrell Miller is injured. If Miller is out this Saturday, expect the Vols' running game to come to life. The Gators have the advantage in terms of speed, which they have not taken advantage of with an obviously injured Anthony Richardson and underused Trevor Etienne and Ricky Pearsall.
Team StatsUTUF
PPG/F52.025.3
PPG/A14.326.7
TOT YD/F553.7353.0
TOT YD/F PASS371.3141.0
TOT YD/F RUSH182.3212.0
TOT YD/A344.7373.3
TOT YD/A PASS261.3178.0
TOT YD/A RUSH83.3195.3


Key Personnel
Tennessee QB is the most efficient passer in the SEC with a rating of 176.1, including a rating of 145.0 against #17 Pitt. Gator RB Montrell Johnson is one of the most efficient backs in the nation with a 9.6 YPC average. When Richardson is not afraid to run, he is among the most devastating weapons in the nation with a projected 2.5 TD rushes per game. Gator WR Ricky Pearsall is among the most explosive receivers in the nation when Richardson puts his big boy pants on and throws him the ball, as Pearsall has a 17.1 YPC average. Tennessee has4 receivers with as many yards as Pearsall, and they are averaging just under 15 YPC among the four of them.
UTUF
QB H. Hooker 59-85, 844 YDS, 6 TD, 176.1 RATQB A. Richardson 41-77, 423 YDS, 4 INT, 89.0 RAT
RB J. Wright 45 CAR, 231 YDS, 3 TDRB M. Johnson Jr. 25 CAR, 240 YDS, 2 TD
WR J. Hyatt 18 REC, 267 YDS, 3 TDWR R. Pearsall 7 REC, 120 YDS

On defense the Gators have an advantage in the secondary, with their DBs being the leading tacklers and being among the leaders in sacks. Unfortunately, QB Anthony Richardson is among the leading tacklers for the Gators as well due to the interceptions. The Volunteer defense does get turnovers, which could be a problem for the Gators who love donating footballs to opposing defenses.
UTUF
LB A. Beasley 9 Solo, 13 Ast, 22 TotS T. Dean 16 Solo, 14 Ast, 30 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD
DB T. Flowers 9 Solo, 7 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 INTS R. Torrence 11 Solo, 11 Ast, 22 Tot
LB J. Banks 10 Solo, 4 Ast, 14 TotLB/JACK B. Cox 8 Solo, 13 Ast, 21 Tot
DB W. Burrell 8 Solo, 4 Ast, 12 Tot, 1 PDLB/STAR A. Burney 10 Solo, 6 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 INT, 10 Sack-Yd, 1 PD,
DB K. Hadden 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot, 2 PD, 1 INTLB/MIKE V. Miller 5 Solo, 10 Ast, 15 Tot, 1 PD
DB J. McCollough 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 TotDL G. Dexter 5 Solo, 7 Ast, 12 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD, 1 INT
DB C. Charles 4 Solo, 5 Ast, 9 TotDL P. Umanmielen 4 Solo, 7 Ast, 11 Tot
DL O. Thomas 3 Solo, 5 Ast, 8 Tot, 2 PD, 1 FRCB J. Marshall 5 Solo, 1 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 PD
DL T. Baron 3 Solo, 3 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 FFCB J. Kimber 2 Solo, 3 Ast, 5 Tot, 1 PD, 1 INT

On special teams the Vols have a reliable kicker who can make long field goals, just like Florida.
UTUF
PK C. McGrath 19/19 PAT, 3/4 FG, 1/1 50+ (51), 28 PTSPK A. Mihalek 7/7 PAT, 3/3 FG, 1/1 50+ (50), 16 PTS

Summary
Based on the statistics I would expect a 32-14 victory for the Vols. Based on the eye test, it could get uglier at 42-14. For the Gators, this game and this season all depend on what is going on between the ears of Anthony Richardson. If he can manage the game and not turn the ball over, I think the Gators can keep it close with defense and eke out a close victory. Nothing has shown that AR is there yet, which could be a bad sign for the Gators. The Gator fanatic in me holds onto a shred of optimism that Napier brought some voodoo magic with him from Louisiana and the Gators eke out a 33-30 game in overtime, but I would not hold onto that prediction.
Well, your (sometimes AWKWARD) combination of realism and optimism pretty cleanly nails my confusion of "mixed feelings" right to the wall we are hurtling towards.
We will somehow have to break right THROUGH it if we are to come OUT of Rocky Top with the win this time. No, I don't feel especially confident about it either.
For now, this game and season depend on Richardson, as you say--and his performance in turn depends to great extent on Napier's going "all IN" on the young QB's proven "wild skills".
Neither can coach or play with the restraining influence of any kind of fear...Again: "TURN HIM LOOSE!", Billy.
So: We wish, hope, PRAY for that thrilling "close victory", but we try and be somewhat emotionally ready for the expected "bad loss".
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The Gators are 16-8 (5-1 since 2005) in meetings where both Florida and Tennessee have been ranked, with the most recent coming in 2017 (No. 24 Florida 26, No. 23 Tennessee 20).
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
From the Spurrier years through the Tennessee downfall in 2007 the Gators and Volunteers met every year with all 18 matchups being ranked matchups. The Gators went 12-6 in that span.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
This is the first meeting between Billy Napier and Josh Heupel as head coaches, but these two coached against one another as assistants in the 2014 Sugar Bowl. In that matchup, Napier was the WR Coach at Alabama and Heupel the Co-OC / QB Coach at Oklahoma. The Sooners prevailed in that contest, 45-31, but Napier’s WR corps racked up 387 yards on 19 catches, led by 121 yards from Amari Cooper and 139 yards from DeAndrew White.
StatisticOklahomaAlabama
Score4531
1st Downs2420
3rd down efficiency7-156-12
4th down efficiency1-10-0
Total Yards429516
Passing348387
Comp-Att32-4419-30
Yards per pass7.912.9
Interceptions thrown12
QBR92.9 (T. Knight)55.7 (AJ McCarron)
Receptions6/ 105/ 1 (45) (L Bester)3/ 139/ 1 (67) (D. White)
Rushing81129
Rushing Attempts3035
Yards per rush2.73.7
Penalties11-956-45
Turnovers15
Fumbles lost03
Interceptions thrown12
Possession30:5529:05
 
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Escambia94

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Florida ranks second in the SEC, fourth in the Power Five and fifth in the FBS with 6.4 yards per carry. Florida is #32 in overall rushing yardage and in rushing touchdowns.

Yards per rush
1. Alabama 7.5
2. Kansas 7.1
3. Air Force 6.9
4. TCU 6.8
5. Florida 6.4
 
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Escambia94

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Florida is one of two teams in the nation to face three opponents ranked in the AP Top 25 across the first four weeks of the season (Texas Tech). Florida and Texas Tech are each 2-1 leading into their next matchup this weekend. The Gators are the only team to face three top-20 opponents through the first four weeks.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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Florida has scored in 426 consecutive games dating back to 1988 -- an NCAA record and 6 games longer than any other college football team in the history of the sport. The last team to shut out the Gators was the 1988 #9 Auburn Tigers, who marched into Florida Field and beat the Gators 16-0. In that game, the Amadeeville Horror offense was absolutely atrocious without Emmitt Smith, as they had been all year. Gator QBs Kyle Morris and Herbert Perry managed 3 TDs and 13 INTs for the season. The team went 0-4 without Smith starting with the Memphis State game. This time period was also the last time Vanderbilt would beat Florida until 2013.

The 426-game scoring streak is amazing, considering the 25 times that the Gators nearly blew this record. Tennessee nearly ruined this record twice: in 2014 and 1990. In 2014, the Gator eked out a 10-9 victory over Tennessee despite the score being 9-0 through the 4th quarter and the Gators failing to cross the 50-yard line until Tennessee fumbled the ball and set up a 30-yard TD drive. Austin Hardin took over for kicker Francisco Velez and put down the crack pipe long enough to kick the game-winning field goal with 6:20 on the clock to seal the victory. In that game, vaunted former 5-star QB Jeff Driskel went 11/23 for 59 yards and 3 INTs (16.4 QBR) and was replaced by Treon Harris who went 2/4 for 17 yards passing, but he averaged 6 YPC on 4 rushes to Driskel's 2.1 YPC. In Spurrier's return to his home state in year 1 as Head Ball Coach in 1990, it took a last-minute field goal by the punter Arden Czyewski to save the consecutive scoring streak. The #9 Gators still lost that game to #5 Tennessee, 3-45.

Consecutive games scoring
1. Florida 423* 1988-present
2. TCU 367* 1992-present
3. Michigan 365 1984-2014
4., BYU 361 1975-2003
5. Virginia Tech 346* 1995-present
 
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Escambia94

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The Gators are 26-15 on College Gameday including wins in two of the team’s last-three appearances.
 

Escambia94

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In past games against Tennessee they did not have a modern defense. Last year was Tim Banks' first year at Tennessee where he lacked the players to fully implement his 4-2-5 defense, which was designed to stop the spread offense. The good news is that the Gators do not have a spread offense. Then again, the Gators might not have an offense whatsoever, but for the sake of discussion let us assume the Gators have a traditional pro-style offense with some RPO elements. Last year the Gators ran for 7.1 yards per carry, which was only slightly less than the 7.9 yards per attempt passing. Against Pitt a couple weeks ago, it is hard to tell if the Volunteer defense limited the Pitt rushing attack or if Pitt is not that good a running team. Upon further inspection it appears that Tennessee is weak against the run. Pitt only ran for 76 yards against West Virginia at 2.0 YPC, but they ran for 141 yards at 3.6 YPC against a "better" Tennessee defense. Note that the best defensive players on UT are the DBs. They are in essence, all nickelbacks with a couple STAR hybrid. They only have 2 dedicated linebackers to stop the run, with the STAR charging in when not in coverage. A halfway competent QB could exploit the UT defense running Cover-6 (half/quarters defense) out of this 4-2-5 (see picture below).
Screenshot 2022-09-23 at 10-57-12 Defensive Coverages In Football - Complete Guide.png


If Florida fails to throw the ball, the Vols could shift into 3-3-5 and stuff the running game.
UT
LB A. Beasley 9 Solo, 13 Ast, 22 Tot
DB T. Flowers 9 Solo, 7 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 INT
LB J. Banks 10 Solo, 4 Ast, 14 Tot
DB W. Burrell 8 Solo, 4 Ast, 12 Tot, 1 PD
DB K. Hadden 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot, 2 PD, 1 INT
DB J. McCollough 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot
DB C. Charles 4 Solo, 5 Ast, 9 Tot
DL O. Thomas 3 Solo, 5 Ast, 8 Tot, 2 PD, 1 FR
DL T. Baron 3 Solo, 3 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 FF

Tennessee will beat Florida if they load the box and if Richardson does not run and occasionally throw deep. It is that simple. The UT defense is designed to stop the spread, which Florida does not have. That same defense is weak against things that Florida did very well against Utah: running up the middle with the running backs, running everywhere with the quarterback, and throwing underneath after winning some deep shots. That is basic football. The Florida offense that showed up in week 1 against Utah would have beaten Kentucky a couple weeks ago and is the exact offense that would destroy this Tennessee defense. The Florida offense that we saw against Kentucky and USF is not going to beat anyone else on its schedule except Eastern Washington. If the Gators employ a tight, pro-style formation, run the ball well (QBs and RBs), and get an occasional deep shot, it could get the Volunteers out of their favorite formation below and into something that Florida can beat with its high school offense. If the Gators use the trips formation, just throw your remote control at the TV and do not replace that TV until next year. Just give up on Gator football if you see that formation one more time. That is a sign that the Gators are not playing to win another game in 2022. The Gators have run trips left and trips right this year, and it has never worked. FSU ran this against UF last year and it did not work. I am not certain this formation works against any FBS team, yet we see it again and again from Napier.
Screenshot 2022-09-23 at 11-04-52 Trips Right Weak Y Slant.png


If Anthony Richardson pulls his head out of his *** this week, the Gators' season can be saved in terms of making a decent bowl game. If Richardson repeats the horrific quarterback play we have seen over the past couple weeks, there is no precedent for a QB to wake up in the middle of a season and win enough games to fix the season. This game is not supposed to be a make-or-break game only 4 games into the season, but it really is a pivotal game that dictates the trends that are rather good at predicting the entire season.
 
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DRU2012

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It might even be a "make or break" for Anthony's immediate college career too...Hate to say it, might be way unfair, but what can the Coach DO in the face of THREE straight can't-hit-the-side-of-a-BARN performances--likely as it is that THAT will be the reality Billy & His Boys will be facing by postgame, come Saturday night?
AR MUST snap OUT of it--or sit down and work his way back, do some growing up, maybe realize that "limitless upside" we heard so much about NEXT year.
As for all the rest, all I can say is, "Whew!--That is a veritable ****load of confusing situational data to wade through and wrap one's mind around!"
I guess it comes down to which Gator team, Coach and/or QB we GET out there come tomorrow:
That promised by all we saw Week 1?
Or everything on display pretty well ever since?
I gotta tell ya, I cannot escape the hideous feeling we are about to get soundly trounced.
 

DRU2012

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(Then again we live in hope--and yes. I WILL be here, watching, hoping, at kickoff Saturday.
Maybe we can pull a "Midway" out there at Rocky Top tomorrow afternoon.)
 

DRU2012

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Word is Ventrel Miller WON'T be playing.
Unless that somehow changes between "now" (this is as of late Thursday) and kickoff in Knoxville, I don't see us having any chance at all.
I'm sorry, but there it is.
In fact, in a wider sense, the impression grows that the overall relative talent vacuum that had developed here at UF by the end of Mullen's tenure, though clearly on the mend now, may well still require a couple of more YEARS to properly surmount. Given everything, SEC Championship-level teams must have not only top-shelf starting talent, but across-the-board DEPTH as well. We have had at best shown patchy promise in our starting line-up--but obviously not even that with regard to depth.
More than ever, PATIENCE will be the key.
This is turning out to be much more a "full scale rebuild" than most of us I think were ready to face, even as last season deteriorated, ultimately completely fell apart.
Fortunately, I believe our new Coach saw it. He took the job anyway--AND was ready, able and willing to face and get the job done.
But it will take time.
 

Escambia94

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In terms of production the linebackers and safeties can absorb the load in terms of tackling, but they cannot replace his leadership skills and knowledge of the game. The defense is basically a 4-2-5 without Ventrell. The base 3-3-5 can still work since the Gators already have hybrid linebacker-safety experience in Trey Dean and Amari Burney.

Leading tacklers
T. Dean III S 30
R. Torrence II S 22
B. Cox Jr. LB 21
A. Burney LB 16
V. Miller LB 15
S. James LB 14
 

DRU2012

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Sorry. I've long since MADE my point here.
I wanna be wrong, after all.
I am merely trying to "harden my heart"--protect myself, indeed protect us ALL, from what seems inevitable pain...but enough is enough:
As Gators, "we live in hope", and that will have to do for now. Some day, sooner or later it will be fulfilled.
The day will come: We will rise again.
Maybe not today (trust me--it would be a transient victory in ANY event, though we'll TAKE it with grace should it come our way!).
 
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