Overview
The #20 Gators travel to Rocky Top to take on the #11 Tennessee Volunteers. This will be the first time in history that the Gators are double-digit road underdogs (DDRUDs) to the Vols.
The Gators are riding a 5-game win streak against the Vols and are 31-20 all-time in a series that goes back to 1916. The last time Tennessee won was in 2016, a 38-28 victory in Knoxville where the #14 Vols outgained the #19 Gators 498 yards to 402 yards. Each team had 2 turnovers in that match-up, and the Gators had nearly twice as many penalty yards. The average score since that Gator loss is 35.2-15.4, but this game will be a completely different match-up between two coaches who have never faced each other. Billy Napier is 2-1 at Florida, 42-13 overall. Josh Heupel is 10-6 at Tennessee, 38-14 overall.
Keys to the Game
The UT stats may appear to be a bit padded after facing two cupcakes, Akron and Ball State. In week 2, the #24 Vols did squeeze out a victory in overtime against #17 Pitt. In that game the Vols only had 91 rushing yards, but they compensated with 325 passing yards. Having 7 penalties for 70 yards definitely did not help the Vols, but they took care of the ball and exploited the Panthers' turnovers. That same game plan could gash the Gators, who are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of turnovers, and are among the worst in defending the run when Ventrell Miller is injured. If Miller is out this Saturday, expect the Vols' running game to come to life. The Gators have the advantage in terms of speed, which they have not taken advantage of with an obviously injured Anthony Richardson and underused Trevor Etienne and Ricky Pearsall.
Key Personnel
Tennessee QB is the most efficient passer in the SEC with a rating of 176.1, including a rating of 145.0 against #17 Pitt. Gator RB Montrell Johnson is one of the most efficient backs in the nation with a 9.6 YPC average. When Richardson is not afraid to run, he is among the most devastating weapons in the nation with a projected 2.5 TD rushes per game. Gator WR Ricky Pearsall is among the most explosive receivers in the nation when Richardson puts his big boy pants on and throws him the ball, as Pearsall has a 17.1 YPC average. Tennessee has4 receivers with as many yards as Pearsall, and they are averaging just under 15 YPC among the four of them.
On defense the Gators have an advantage in the secondary, with their DBs being the leading tacklers and being among the leaders in sacks. Unfortunately, QB Anthony Richardson is among the leading tacklers for the Gators as well due to the interceptions. The Volunteer defense does get turnovers, which could be a problem for the Gators who love donating footballs to opposing defenses.
On special teams the Vols have a reliable kicker who can make long field goals, just like Florida.
Summary
Based on the statistics I would expect a 32-14 victory for the Vols. Based on the eye test, it could get uglier at 42-14. For the Gators, this game and this season all depend on what is going on between the ears of Anthony Richardson. If he can manage the game and not turn the ball over, I think the Gators can keep it close with defense and eke out a close victory. Nothing has shown that AR is there yet, which could be a bad sign for the Gators. The Gator fanatic in me holds onto a shred of optimism that Napier brought some voodoo magic with him from Louisiana and the Gators eke out a 33-30 game in overtime, but I would not hold onto that prediction.
The #20 Gators travel to Rocky Top to take on the #11 Tennessee Volunteers. This will be the first time in history that the Gators are double-digit road underdogs (DDRUDs) to the Vols.
- 1992: @ FSU (+17.0, L 24-45)
- 2000: @ FSU (+11.5, L 7-30)
- 2003: @ Miami (+14.0, L 33-38)
- 2003: @ LSU (+10.0, W 19-7)
- 2011: @ LSU (+14.5, L 11-41)
- 2013: @ USCe (+14.5, L 14-19)
- 2014: @ Bama (+15.5, L 21-42)
- 2016: @ LSU (+14.0, W 16-10)
- 2019: @ LSU (+14.5, L 28-42)
- 2022: @ UT (+10.0?, ?)
The Gators are riding a 5-game win streak against the Vols and are 31-20 all-time in a series that goes back to 1916. The last time Tennessee won was in 2016, a 38-28 victory in Knoxville where the #14 Vols outgained the #19 Gators 498 yards to 402 yards. Each team had 2 turnovers in that match-up, and the Gators had nearly twice as many penalty yards. The average score since that Gator loss is 35.2-15.4, but this game will be a completely different match-up between two coaches who have never faced each other. Billy Napier is 2-1 at Florida, 42-13 overall. Josh Heupel is 10-6 at Tennessee, 38-14 overall.
Keys to the Game
The UT stats may appear to be a bit padded after facing two cupcakes, Akron and Ball State. In week 2, the #24 Vols did squeeze out a victory in overtime against #17 Pitt. In that game the Vols only had 91 rushing yards, but they compensated with 325 passing yards. Having 7 penalties for 70 yards definitely did not help the Vols, but they took care of the ball and exploited the Panthers' turnovers. That same game plan could gash the Gators, who are near the bottom of the FBS in terms of turnovers, and are among the worst in defending the run when Ventrell Miller is injured. If Miller is out this Saturday, expect the Vols' running game to come to life. The Gators have the advantage in terms of speed, which they have not taken advantage of with an obviously injured Anthony Richardson and underused Trevor Etienne and Ricky Pearsall.
| Team Stats | UT | UF |
|---|---|---|
| PPG/F | 52.0 | 25.3 |
| PPG/A | 14.3 | 26.7 |
| TOT YD/F | 553.7 | 353.0 |
| TOT YD/F PASS | 371.3 | 141.0 |
| TOT YD/F RUSH | 182.3 | 212.0 |
| TOT YD/A | 344.7 | 373.3 |
| TOT YD/A PASS | 261.3 | 178.0 |
| TOT YD/A RUSH | 83.3 | 195.3 |
Key Personnel
Tennessee QB is the most efficient passer in the SEC with a rating of 176.1, including a rating of 145.0 against #17 Pitt. Gator RB Montrell Johnson is one of the most efficient backs in the nation with a 9.6 YPC average. When Richardson is not afraid to run, he is among the most devastating weapons in the nation with a projected 2.5 TD rushes per game. Gator WR Ricky Pearsall is among the most explosive receivers in the nation when Richardson puts his big boy pants on and throws him the ball, as Pearsall has a 17.1 YPC average. Tennessee has4 receivers with as many yards as Pearsall, and they are averaging just under 15 YPC among the four of them.
| UT | UF |
|---|---|
| QB H. Hooker 59-85, 844 YDS, 6 TD, 176.1 RAT | QB A. Richardson 41-77, 423 YDS, 4 INT, 89.0 RAT |
| RB J. Wright 45 CAR, 231 YDS, 3 TD | RB M. Johnson Jr. 25 CAR, 240 YDS, 2 TD |
| WR J. Hyatt 18 REC, 267 YDS, 3 TD | WR R. Pearsall 7 REC, 120 YDS |
On defense the Gators have an advantage in the secondary, with their DBs being the leading tacklers and being among the leaders in sacks. Unfortunately, QB Anthony Richardson is among the leading tacklers for the Gators as well due to the interceptions. The Volunteer defense does get turnovers, which could be a problem for the Gators who love donating footballs to opposing defenses.
| UT | UF |
|---|---|
| LB A. Beasley 9 Solo, 13 Ast, 22 Tot | S T. Dean 16 Solo, 14 Ast, 30 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD |
| DB T. Flowers 9 Solo, 7 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 INT | S R. Torrence 11 Solo, 11 Ast, 22 Tot |
| LB J. Banks 10 Solo, 4 Ast, 14 Tot | LB/JACK B. Cox 8 Solo, 13 Ast, 21 Tot |
| DB W. Burrell 8 Solo, 4 Ast, 12 Tot, 1 PD | LB/STAR A. Burney 10 Solo, 6 Ast, 16 Tot, 1 INT, 10 Sack-Yd, 1 PD, |
| DB K. Hadden 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot, 2 PD, 1 INT | LB/MIKE V. Miller 5 Solo, 10 Ast, 15 Tot, 1 PD |
| DB J. McCollough 7 Solo, 5 Ast, 12 Tot | DL G. Dexter 5 Solo, 7 Ast, 12 Tot, 0.5 Sack, 1 PD, 1 INT |
| DB C. Charles 4 Solo, 5 Ast, 9 Tot | DL P. Umanmielen 4 Solo, 7 Ast, 11 Tot |
| DL O. Thomas 3 Solo, 5 Ast, 8 Tot, 2 PD, 1 FR | CB J. Marshall 5 Solo, 1 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 PD |
| DL T. Baron 3 Solo, 3 Ast, 6 Tot, 1 Sack, 1 FF | CB J. Kimber 2 Solo, 3 Ast, 5 Tot, 1 PD, 1 INT |
On special teams the Vols have a reliable kicker who can make long field goals, just like Florida.
| UT | UF |
|---|---|
| PK C. McGrath 19/19 PAT, 3/4 FG, 1/1 50+ (51), 28 PTS | PK A. Mihalek 7/7 PAT, 3/3 FG, 1/1 50+ (50), 16 PTS |
Summary
Based on the statistics I would expect a 32-14 victory for the Vols. Based on the eye test, it could get uglier at 42-14. For the Gators, this game and this season all depend on what is going on between the ears of Anthony Richardson. If he can manage the game and not turn the ball over, I think the Gators can keep it close with defense and eke out a close victory. Nothing has shown that AR is there yet, which could be a bad sign for the Gators. The Gator fanatic in me holds onto a shred of optimism that Napier brought some voodoo magic with him from Louisiana and the Gators eke out a 33-30 game in overtime, but I would not hold onto that prediction.
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