Official Game Thread: Week 10, #6 Florida Gators 17, #8 Georgia Bulldogs 24 (Jacksonville) 11/2/19

[Escambia94]

Welcome to the 96th edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! The #8 Georgia Bulldogs enter this neutral-site game as 6-point favorites over the #6 Florida Gators. The Dawgs have won two in a row and have a 60.9% chance of winning according to the ESPN FPI metrics.

The Dawgs lead the all-time series 51-43-2, with a 2-game winning streak under Kirby Smart. Georgia's offense is ranked #11 in the nation; Florida's is ranked #19. The Georgia offense favors the run in 60% of their plays, but they are averaging 234.4 YD passing and 236.9 YD rushing--against zero top-25 defenses. South Carolina and Notre Dame each held Georgia to 4.7 YPC and 175 rushing YD. The Georgia defense is ranked #4; Florida's is ranked #17. Georgia holds opposing offenses to 181.0 YD passing and only 85.7 YD rushing--with their only top-25 offense being #22 Notre Dame. Georgia has not yet faced any other top-50 offense!

If there were ever a year where the Gators should win despite being the underdog, this is it. Florida has a healthy Greenard and Zuniga on defense, and Toney on offense. I expect Georgia to play better than they have earlier in the season, but not enough to overcome a healthy Gator team. I predict a 31-21 victory for the Gators.

Here is a snapshot of the Georgia Bulldog season this far:

• @ Vanderbilt 30-6. UGA 156 YD pass, 323 YD rush. Vandy 109 YD pass, 116 YD rush.
  
• vs Murray State 63-17. UGA 292 YD pass, 269 YD rush. MSU 261 YD pass, 23 YD rush.
  
• vs Arkansas State 55-0. UGA 388 YD pass, 268 YD rush. ASU 177 YD pass, 43 YD rush.
  
• vs #7 Notre Dame 23-17. UGA 187 YD pass, 152 YD rush. ND 275 YD pass, 46 YD rush.
  
• @ Tennessee 43-14. UGA 288 YD pass, 238 YD rush. UT 273 YD pass, 70 YD rush.
  
• vs South Carolina 17-20. UGA 295 YD pass, 173 YD rush. SC 155 YD pass, 142 rush.
  
• vs Kentucky 21-0. UGA 35 YD pass, 235 YD rush. UK 17 YD pass, 160 YD rush.

Here is a snapshot of the Florida Gator season this far:

• vs Miami (neutral) 24-20. FL 254 YD pass, 50 YD rush. UM 214 YD pass, 87 YD rush.
  
• vs UT Martin 45-0. FL 312 YD pass, 231 YD rush. UTM 140 YD pass, 54 YD rush.
  
• @ Kentucky 29-21. FL 300 YD pass, 138 YD rush. UK 267 YD pass, 140 YD rush.
  
• vs Tennessee 34-3. FL 313 YD pass, 128 YD rush. UT 151 YD pass, 88 YD rush.
  
• vs Towson 38-0. FL 262 YD pass, 160 YD rush. TU 183 YD pass, 65 YD rush.
  
• vs #7 Auburn 24-13. FL 266 YD pass, 132 YD rush. AUB 145 YD pass, 124 YD rush.
  
• @ #5 LSU 28-42. FL 311 YD pass, 146 YD rush. LSU 292 YD pass, 218 YD rush.
  
• @ South Carolina. 38-27. FL 200 YD pass, 154 YD rush. SC 170 YD pass, 217 YD rush.

Georgia has slightly better performances against common opponents Tennessee, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Here are the total yardage ratios:

• UFL vs UT ratios, SC, UK: 1.85, 0.91, 1.08
• UGA vs UT ratios, SC, UK: 1.53, 1.58, 1/53
• UFL - UGA ratios: 0.31, -0.66, -0.45

The scoring ratio comparison merely shows that Georgia performed better statistically against common opponents, despite Georgia having a loss in a game where they statistically outperformed the opponent 1.53:1.

Here are the historical results:

10/27/2018
Jacksonville, FL
36-17

10/28/2017
Jacksonville, FL
42-7

10/29/2016
Jacksonville, FL
10
24

10/31/2015
Jacksonville, FL
3
27

11/1/2014
Jacksonville, FL
20
38

11/2/2013
Jacksonville, FL
23
20

10/27/2012 "#2 Gators Upset"
Jacksonville, FL
17
9

10/29/2011
Jacksonville, FL
24
20

10/30/2010
Jacksonville, FL
31
34

10/31/2009
Jacksonville, FL
17
41

11/1/2008 "Gator Stop"
Jacksonville, FL
10
49

10/27/2007 "Gator Stomp"
Jacksonville, FL
42
30

10/28/2006
Jacksonville, FL
14
21

10/29/2005
Jacksonville, FL
10
14

10/30/2004
Jacksonville, FL
31
24

11/1/2003
Jacksonville, FL
13
16

11/2/2002
Jacksonville, FL
13
20

10/27/2001
Jacksonville, FL
10
24

10/28/2000
Jacksonville, FL
23
34

10/30/1999
Jacksonville, FL
14
30

10/31/1998
Jacksonville, FL
7
38

11/1/1997
Jacksonville, FL
37
17

11/2/1996
Jacksonville, FL
7
47

10/28/1995
Athens, GA
17
52

10/29/1994
Gainesville, FL
14
52

10/30/1993
Jacksonville, FL
26
33

10/31/1992
Jacksonville, FL
24
26

11/9/1991
Jacksonville, FL
13
45

11/10/1990
Jacksonville, FL
7
38

11/11/1989
Jacksonville, FL
17
10

11/5/1988
Jacksonville, FL
26
3

11/7/1987
Jacksonville, FL
23
10

11/8/1986
Jacksonville, FL
19
31

11/9/1985
Jacksonville, FL
24
3

11/10/1984
Jacksonville, FL
0
27

11/5/1983
Jacksonville, FL
10
9

11/6/1982
Jacksonville, FL
44
0

11/7/1981
Jacksonville, FL
26
21

11/8/1980
Jacksonville, FL
26
21

11/10/1979
Jacksonville, FL
33
10

11/11/1978
Jacksonville, FL
24
22

11/5/1977
Jacksonville, FL
17
22

11/6/1976
Jacksonville, FL
41
27

11/8/1975
Jacksonville, FL
10
7

11/9/1974
Jacksonville, FL
17
16

11/10/1973
Jacksonville, FL
10
11

11/11/1972
Jacksonville, FL
10
7

11/6/1971
Jacksonville, FL
49
7

11/7/1970
Jacksonville, FL
17
24

11/8/1969
Jacksonville, FL
13
13

11/9/1968
Jacksonville, FL
51
0

11/11/1967
Jacksonville, FL
16
17

11/5/1966
Jacksonville, FL
27
10

11/6/1965
Jacksonville, FL
10
14

11/7/1964
Jacksonville, FL
14
7

11/9/1963
Jacksonville, FL
14
21

11/10/1962
Jacksonville, FL
15
23

11/11/1961
Jacksonville, FL
14
21

11/5/1960
Jacksonville, FL
14
22

11/7/1959
Jacksonville, FL
21
10

11/8/1958
Jacksonville, FL
6
7

11/9/1957
Jacksonville, FL
0
22

11/10/1956
Jacksonville, FL
0
28

11/5/1955
Jacksonville, FL
13
19

11/6/1954
Jacksonville, FL
14
13

11/7/1953
Jacksonville, FL
7
21

10/25/1952
Jacksonville, FL
0
30

11/10/1951
Jacksonville, FL
7
6

11/11/1950
Jacksonville, FL
6
0

11/5/1949
Jacksonville, FL
7
28

11/6/1948
Jacksonville, FL
20
12

11/8/1947
Jacksonville, FL
34
6

11/9/1946
Jacksonville, FL
33
14

11/10/1945
Jacksonville, FL
34
0

11/11/1944
Jacksonville, FL
38
12

11/7/1942
Jacksonville, FL
75
0

11/8/1941
Jacksonville, FL
19
3

11/9/1940
Jacksonville, FL
13
18

11/11/1939
Jacksonville, FL
6
2

11/5/1938
Jacksonville, FL
19
6

11/6/1937
Jacksonville, FL
0
6

11/7/1936
Jacksonville, FL
26
8

11/2/1935
Jacksonville, FL
7
0

11/3/1934
Jacksonville, FL
14
0

11/4/1933
Jacksonville, FL
14
0

10/29/1932
Gainesville, FL
33
12

10/31/1931
Gainesville, FL
33
6

11/1/1930
Savannah, GA
0
0

10/26/1929
Jacksonville, FL
6
18

11/10/1928
Savannah, GA
6
26

11/5/1927
Jacksonville, FL
28
0

10/30/1926
Athens, GA
32
9

11/13/1920
Athens, GA
56
0

10/25/1919
Tampa, FL
16
0

10/14/1916
Athens, GA
21
0

11/6/1915
Jacksonville, FL
37
0

 

[Leakfan12]

Whoever wins this game wins the SEC East. Really hoping it's the Gators. Also, I want another crack at LSU.

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a more direct comparison of the strengths of each team:

• Scoring offense: advantage Georgia
  
  • Florida 32.5 ppg, #45
  • Georgia 36.0 ppg, #24
• Scoring defense: advantage Georgia
  • Florida 15.8 ppg, #12
  • Georgia 10.6 ppg, #5
• Passing offense: push
  
  • Florida 8.2 ypa #31
  • Georgia 8.2 ypa, #31
• Rushing offense: advantage Georgia
  • Florida 4.3 ypc, #75
  • Georgia 6.07 ypc, #5
• Red zone TD%: advantage Georgia
  • Florida 67.65%, #40
  • Georgia 76.67%, #15

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a comparison of Gator QB statistics over the years, with Kyle Trask's statistics through week 9:

• Danny Wuerffel 1993 FR 159/273 58.2% 2230 YDS 22 10 146.1 RAT
• Danny Wuerffel 1994 SO 132/212 62.3% 1754 YDS 18 9 151.3 RAT
• Danny Wuerffel 1995 JR 210/325 64.6% 3266 YDS 35 10 178.4 RAT
• Danny Wuerffel 1996 SR 207/360 57.5% 3625 YDS 39 TD 13 INT 170.6 RAT
• Doug Johnson 1997 SO 148/269 55.0% 2023 YDS 21 TD 12 INT 135.0 RAT
• Doug Johnson 1998 JR 154 274/56.2 2346 YDS 19 TD 8 INT 145.2 RAT
• Jesse Palmer 1998 SO 73/123 59.3% 1246 YDS 14 TD 5 INT 173.9 RAT
• Doug Johnson 1999 SR 190/337 56.4% 2574 YDS 20 TD 13 INT 132.4 RAT
• Rex Grossman 2000 FR 131/212 61.8% 1866 YDS 21 TD 7 INT 161.8 RAT
• Jesse Palmer 2000 SR 116/223 52.0% 1653 YDS 11 TD 4 INT 127.0 RAT
• Rex Grossman 2001 SO 259/395 65.6% 3896 YDS 34 TD 12 INT 170.8 RAT
• Rex Grossman 2002 JR 287/503 57.1% 3402 YDS 22 TD 17 INT 121.5 RAT
• Chris Leak 2003 FR 190/320 59.4% 2435 YDS 16 TD 11 INT 132.9 RAT
• Chris Leak 2004 SO 238/399 59.6% 3197 YDS 29 TD 12 INT 144.9 RAT
• Chris Leak 2005 JR 235/374 62.8% 2639 YDS 20 TD 6 INT 136.5 RAT
• Chris Leak 2006 SR 232/365 63.6% 2942 YDS 23 TD 13 INT 144.9 RAT
• Tim Tebow 2007 SO 234/350 66.9% 3286 YDS 32 TD 6 INT 172.5 RAT
• Tim Tebow 2008 JR 192/298 64.4% 2746 YDS 30 TD 4 INT 172.4 RAT
• Tim Tebow 2009 SR 213/314 67.8% 2895 YDS 21 TD 5 INT 164.2 RAT
• John Brantley 2010 JR 200/329 60.8% 2061 YDS 9 TD 10 INT 116.4 RAT
• John Brantley 2011 SR 144/240 60.0% 2044 YDS 11 TD 7 INT 140.8 RAT
• Jeff Driskel 2012 SO 156/245 63.7% 1646 YDS 12 TD 5 INT 132.2 RAT
• Jeff Driskel 2013 JR QB 42/61 68.9% 477 YDS 2 TD 3 INT 135.5 RAT
• Jeff Driskel 2014 JR QB 114/212 53.8% 1140 YDS 9 TD 10 INT 103.5 RAT
• Treon Harris 2014 FR 55/111 49.5% 1019 YDS 9 TD 4 INT 146.2 RAT
• Treon Harris 2015 SO QB 119/235 50.6% 1676 YDS 9 TD 6 INT 118.1 RAT
• Will Grier 2015 FR QB 105/160 65.6% 1202 YDS 10 TD 3 INT 145.6 RAT
• Austin Appleby 2016 TR-SR 127/209 60.8% 1447 YDS 10 TD 7 INT 128.0 RAT
• Luke Del Rio 2016 TR-SO 114/201 56.7% 1358 YDS 8 TD 8 INT 118.6 RAT
• Luke Del Rio 2017 TR-JR 16/25 64.0% 138 YDS 1 TD 1 INT 115.6 RAT
• Feleipe Franks 2017 RFR 125/229 54.6% 1438 YDS 9 TD 8 INT 113.3 RAT
• Feleipe Franks 2018 RSO 175/299 58.5% 2284 YDS 7.6 23 TD 6 INT 144.1 RAT
• Kyle Trask 2019 RJR 114/169 67.5% 1391 YDS 8.2 15 TD 4 INT 159.2 RAT

For perspective, here is the ranking of Gator QBs by passer rating since Tim Tebow left with a career passer rating of 170.8:

1. Feleipe Franks 173.4 (2019 weeks 1-4 Florida)
2. Feleipe Franks + Kyle Trask 166.3 (2019 weeks 1-9 Florida)
3. Will Grier 165.2 (2015-2018, Florida and WVU)
   
4. Kyle Trask 159.2 (2019 weeks 4-9 Florida)
   
5. Will Grier 145.6 (2015 weeks 1-6 Florida)
   
6. Feleipe Franks 143.4 (2018 Florida)
7. Kyle Trask 157.0 (2016-2019 Florida)
8. Feleipe Franks 135.7 (2016-2019 Florida)
9. Jeff Driskel 134.1 (2011-2015 Florida and La Tech)
   
10. Malik Zaire 133.5 (2014-2017 Notre Dame and Florida)
    
11. John Brantley 133.3 (2008-2011 Florida)
    
12. Jacoby Brissett 131.3 (2011-2015, Florida and NC State)
    
13. Skyler Mornhinweg 128.2 (2013 Florida)
    
14. Austin Appleby 128.0 (2016 Florida)
    
15. Treon Harris 127.1 (2014-2015 Florida)
    
16. Tyler Murphy 123.9 (2013-2014 Florida and Boston College)
    
17. Tyler Murphy 121.1 (2013 Florida)
18. Luke Del Rio 118.6 (2016 Florida)
    
19. Luke Del Rio 118.3 (2015-2017 Florida)
    
20. Jeff Driskel 117.8 (2011-2014 Florida)
    
21. Jordan Reed 117.2 (2010 Florida, moved to TE 2011-2012)
    
22. Austin Appleby 114.3 (2013-2016 Purdue and Florida)
    
23. Jacoby Brissett 109.6 (2011-2012 Florida)
    
24. Malik Zaire 104.9 (2017 Florida)

What this tells me is that Gator QBs can perform well for half a season before injuries or steroids, or when being coached by a good QB coach (at Florida or elsewhere after transfer).

 

[DRU2012]

Throw away the stats. They SAY that we go down. Throw away recruiting rankings. Same deal.
I don’t KNOW what’s gonna happen in this one—but this one’s a GUT -game—and MY “gut” tells me we can take this one.
I MEAN that. The analytics be DAMNED! With our defense ESPECIALLY getting fully healthy at the right time, and just enough “extra-added” returning to the fold on offense, and Kyle Trask deeply slumbering his way past midnight into pumpkin PARADISE somewhere over the rainbow, at this point I’ll actually be surprised if we DON’T win.
How bout THAT?!!
Mr Bummer, “glass half-empty” “they’re out to screw us!” “DRU2012” (ever THINK about that handle?) is sticking his neck out here and now, of all times and places...
If I’m wrong, I can easily go back to being “the voice of doom”, after all.
But sometimes, there comes a time...
GO GATORS!!!

 

[DRU2012]

I can’t WATCH anymore “buildup”;
It. Just. Doesn’t. Matter.
Far as I’M CONCERNED, this one is decided NOT out there on the streets in front of the hype and the cameras;
NO! It is already being confronted in the motel parking lots and back alleys of Jacksonville! We’ll see the RESULTS of that contest on CBS in the 4th quarter!
See y’all there—and GO GATORS!!!!!!!!

 

[Escambia94]

Gators look bad right now.

 

[DRU2012]

Sure do.
Came out flat, sorry to say—I wmexoected them to be ready for this one...Knew this’d be a close one, given the two teams’ nature’s—and a “3-zip” deficit was somewhat to be expected...I woulda picked our reptiles to rally and keep it close there; that they “gave when it counted” instead is a bad sign: Maybe we don’t HAVE it after all...and if a field goal is all we can respond with NOW, of all times, frankly is just “more of the same: we have GOT to get this thing KNOTTED before the Half—period.

 

[Escambia94]

This is ****ing embarrassing!

 

[DRU2012]

Let us simply concede that this team was NOT READY TO PLAY TODAY—and STILL HASN’T awakened!
This is one where Dan Mullens MUST begin with himself and his staff when analyzing what happened here.
Unless there is a MASSIVE adjustment that TURNS THE WHEEL AND TURNS THE WORM HERE, y’all can FORGET whatever magic we might have seized from thin air THIS season and begin to assess WHERE WE ARE HEADED AFTER ANOTHER “PRETTY-GOOD-BUT-NO-CIGAR”-SEASON LEAVES US WASHED UP ON “Pat ourselves on the back”-Beach once more.
Frankly, that first half was practically unwatchable, and either we turn this one around PRONTO or I personally WILL NOT be watching this one into the 4th.
I am SICK OF “being almost ready”.

 

[Escambia94]

It feels like I am watching Muschamp or McDeathThreats.

 

[DRU2012]

...Oh, we are going to do incrementally better as far as our overall record will reflect: We won’t “lose TWICE” to UGA this time...If we play with any pride at ALL WE WILL WIN OUT AND GRAB THE TOP “ALSO-RAN BOWL”-placement—but SO WHAT???
This was the year for us to seize the SEC East—anything less is slipping back to the pack, to mediocrity.
How about bringing in Jones for this quarter? Yes, the officials are messing with us, but that’s not why we are down—that is all on our once again moribund offense AND Defense. Nothing from our star rushers; they are back, but they aren’t BACK, ya know???

 

[DRU2012]

Oh, that does it...if THAT’S a catch I give up (they gave them that last one—they will give him this one too).
Forget it, boys: unless things change drastically and soon, we will NOT be coming back. Up to our D right now—and they are DEPRESSED.
We just folded for this one; they score here, it is over. (and Mullens’ off field comments after the half were LAME...:
“I think we ‘re ok...we’re playing about as well as we can...I feel good...”
If that’s the case, Dan, just wave the white flag, boyo...

 

[DRU2012]

Trask finslly looking like a “freshman”...HAD to throw that away!
That was our last chance, boys: The carriage turned into a pumpkin back in the first half, and, well, you know the rest of the story—only there’l BE no handsome princes coming around to fix everything after it’s all over.

 

[DRU2012]

What I don’t get is why we don’t give Emory a try??? Kyle is having a bad day—there’s nothing else to say about it!
Give Emory a shot...It is the only possible “magic” we might have left—and boy do we NEED IT—if not for THIS season, then looking towards the NEXT!!!

 

[DRU2012]

Aw, I am not gonna watch anymore of THIS. We are already beaten: “Beaten in our heads since early in the game”.
Dan, it is tome to look to the future:
PUT IN EMORY JONES.

 

[DRU2012]

If Jones gets his shot, I will watch...if not, I will not be back. COACHING LOST THIS ONE, my friends.

 

[DRU2012]

Pathetic. Yeah, no td, but only cause they blew that play. We are already besten—you all can see it as well as I can.

 

[DRU2012]

What a monumental let down by BOTH COACHING STAFFS, offensive AND defensive.

 

[DRU2012]

We still are actually within striking distance—IF we had any offense!