Ranking the Season QB Ratings: Graham Mertz Projection

[Escambia94]

For perspective, here is the ranking of Gator QBs by season passer rating since Tim Tebow left in 2009. Note that Tebow’s season passer ratings were 172.4, 172.5, and 164.2 from 2007-2009. For QBs who transferred in or out of Florida I also cited their previous or next year to establish a trend. Ratings from partial seasons are noted in brackets.

If the pattern holds true, Mertz will finish among the top Gator QBs in the past 20 years.

1. Kyle Trask 180.0 (2020 Florida)
2. Feleipe Franks 173.4 (2019 weeks 1-4 Florida) [projected 163 if he would have finished the season]
3. Graham Mertz 163.7 (2023 weeks 1-7 Florida) [projected 158 through week 12]
4. Feleipe Franks 163.1 (2020 Arkansas)
5. Kyle Trask 156.2 (2019 weeks 4-12 Florida)
6. Jeff Driskel 154.1 (2015 La Tech)
7. Will Grier 145.6 (2015 weeks 1-6 Florida)
8. Feleipe Franks 143.4 (2018 Florida)
9. Emory Jones 141.1 (2021 Florida)
10. John Brantley 140.8 (2011 Florida)
11. Jacoby Brissett 136.9 (2013 NC St)
12. Jeff Driskel 135.5 (2013 Florida)
13. Emory Jones 135.1 (2022 Az St)
14. Jacoby Brissett 134.9 (2012 Florida)
15. Jeff Driskel 132.2 (2012 Florida)
16. Anthony Richardson 130.1 (2022 Florida)
17. Skyler Mornhinweg 128.2 (2013 Florida)
18. Austin Appleby 128.0 (2016 Florida)
19. Graham Mertz 127.7 (2019-2022 Wisconsin)
20. Tyler Murphy 126.9 (2014 Boston College)
21. Tyler Murphy 121.1 (2013 Florida)
22. Luke Del Rio 118.6 (2016 Florida)
23. Luke Del Rio 118.3 (2015-2017 Florida)
24. Treon Harris 118.1 (2015 Florida)
25. Jeff Driskel 117.8 (2011-2014 Florida)
26. Jordan Reed 117.2 (2010 Florida, moved to TE 2011)
27. John Brantley 116.8 (2010 Florida)
28. Austin Appleby 113.6 (2015 Purdue)
29. Malik Zaire 106.7 (2016 Notre Dame)
30. Malik Zaire 104.9 (2017 Florida)
31. Jeff Driskel 103.5 (2014 Florida)

 

[DRU2012]

Difficult to draw anything in the way of conclusions from the list alone, it would seem.

 

[Escambia94]

Difficult to draw anything in the way of conclusions from the list alone, it would seem.

The takeaway is Mertz is already one of the best QBs Florida has seen since 2009. He would need to throw 10 straight interceptions before his rating dropped to the level of Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson.

 

[DRU2012]

The takeaway is Mertz is already one of the best QBs Florida has seen since 2009. He would need to throw 10 straight interceptions before his rating dropped to the level of Emory Jones or Anthony Richardson.

OK--I see what you mean...
Of course, I already had that impression on a gut level (via the notorious "eye test"--LOL).
And by the way--we could write a BOOK unpacking all that is implied in that last sentence above, E-- (equating Emory and Anthony in certain ways, and in turn contrasting their actual results at UF vs what we are seeing from Graham...I'd simply put it like this: The kid is FULLY a GATOR, at this point!).

 

[Escambia94]

Mertz finished among the top Gator QBs in the past 20 years as predicted earlier in the season. I predicted a 158 rating and be finished with a 158 rating. Mertz is the #2 QB at UF since the 2009 departure of Tim Tebow.

1. Kyle Trask 180.0 (2020 Florida)
2. Feleipe Franks 173.4 (2019 weeks 1-4 Florida) [projected 163 if he would have finished the season]
3. Graham Mertz 157.8 (down from 163.7 weeks 1-7 Florida, projected 158 through week 12).
4. Kyle Trask 156.2 (2019 weeks 4-12 Florida)
5. Will Grier 145.6 (2015 weeks 1-6 Florida)
6. Feleipe Franks 143.4 (2018 Florida)
7. Emory Jones 141.1 (2021 Florida)
8. John Brantley 140.8 (2011 Florida)
9. Jeff Driskel 135.5 (2013 Florida)
10. Jacoby Brissett 134.9 (2012 Florida)
11. Jeff Driskel 132.2 (2012 Florida)
12. Anthony Richardson 130.1 (2022 Florida)
13. Skyler Mornhinweg 128.2 (2013 Florida)
14. Austin Appleby 128.0 (2016 Florida)
15. Tyler Murphy 121.1 (2013 Florida)
16. Luke Del Rio 118.6 (2016 Florida)
17. Luke Del Rio 118.3 (2015-2017 Florida)
18. Treon Harris 118.1 (2015 Florida)
19. Jeff Driskel 117.8 (2011-2014 Florida)
20. Jordan Reed 117.2 (2010 Florida, moved to TE 2011)
21. John Brantley 116.8 (2010 Florida)
22. Malik Zaire 106.7 (2016 Notre Dame)
23. Malik Zaire 104.9 (2017 Florida)
24. Jeff Driskel 103.5 (2014 Florida)

 

[Escambia94]

Graham Mertz quietly established himself as the 9th best Gator quarterback in terms of season passer rating.

SCHOOL	YR	FIRST	LAST	CLASS	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
FLORIDA	2020	Kyle	Trask	GRSR	301	437	68.88%	4283	43	8	181.90
FLORIDA	1995	Danny	Wuerffel	JR	210	325	64.62%	3266	35	10	178.40
FLORIDA	2007	Tim	Tebow	SO	234	350	66.86%	3286	32	6	172.50
FLORIDA	2008	Tim	Tebow	JR	192	298	64.43%	2746	30	4	172.40
FLORIDA	2001	Rex	Grossman	SO	259	395	65.57%	3896	34	12	170.80
FLORIDA	2009	Tim	Tebow	SR	213	314	67.83%	2895	21	5	164.20
FLORIDA	2000	Rex	Grossman	FR	131	212	61.79%	1866	21	7	161.80
FLORIDA	1985	Kerwin	Bell	SO	180	288	62.50%	2687	21	8	159.40
FLORIDA	2023	Graham	Mertz	TRJR	261	358	72.90%	2903	20	3	157.80
FLORIDA	1994	Terry	Dean	SR	109	180	60.56%	1492	20	10	155.70
FLORIDA	1994	Danny	Wuerffel	SO	132	212	62.26%	1754	18	9	151.30
FLORIDA	2021	Emory	Jones	JR	209	309	67.64%	2562	19	13	149.20

 

[Leakfan12]

He was looking like the best QB since Trask (even though A Rich was drafted 4th overall and looked better in the NFL than with the Gators until his injury) and then he got hurt and looked at another post and it looks like the big game will be battle of the backup QBs.

 

[Escambia94]

He was looking like the best QB since Trask (even though A Rich was drafted 4th overall and looked better in the NFL than with the Gators until his injury) and then he got hurt and looked at another post and it looks like the big game will be battle of the backup QBs.

I am only counting college stats. Richardson is aggressively average among all the Gator QBs. The truth hurts: Emory Jones was a better college QB by every metric except the eye test. Richardson’s superpower is that he looks like the perfect quarterback, as if the football gods chiseled him out of marble. Richardson was always hurt because he was only gym strong but not football strong. This proved out in the NFL as well. He was larger, faster, and stronger than any linebacker that tried to tackle him, but he was not as football strong as any of them and it resulted in him getting injured before the halfway point of the season.

Mertz has more football strength than Richardson. He was just trying to make a play and was sandwiched by two Missouri defenders that he ran through.

 

[DRU2012]

I am only counting college stats. Richardson is aggressively average among all the Gator QBs. The truth hurts: Emory Jones was a better college QB by every metric except the eye test. Richardson’s superpower is that he looks like the perfect quarterback, as if the football gods chiseled him out of marble. Richardson was always hurt because he was only gym strong but not football strong. This proved out in the NFL as well. He was larger, faster, and stronger than any linebacker that tried to tackle him, but he was not as football strong as any of them and it resulted in him getting injured before the halfway point of the season.

Mertz has more football strength than Richardson. He was just trying to make a play and was sandwiched by two Missouri defenders that he ran through.

@Leakfan12, : I did some "correcting/tidying up" here, plus more accurately finished making my point just moments ago...

A shame--I REALLY LIKE the kid, and think/feel he could well be not just a continued success in 2024, but the IDEAL "mentor" to young DJ in HIS first (possibly redshirt?) season here at UF...
HOWEVER: That injury (though "season ending") probably now just costs him and us ONE GAME (that "big game" you mention, next week against FSU). Even if we WERE to win that "back-up to back-up" match up that would only mean one more not-at-all "wasted" opportunity for young Max Brown to continue HIS ongoing onfield learning experience (itself turning out to be quite valuable, by the way) in what has been a diminishing shot at a post-season extension to our playing time (and all THAT entails).
One we'll TAKE of course...but 2024 will be here soon enough, and by all available reports so far that will include a well-rehabbed and hopefully by then HEALTHY Graham Mertz back in the QB-1 role for 2024--and DJ learning by his side (and perhaps eventually some packages phased into gameplans especially for him...if not by later in the 2024 season (ideally) then certainly for his redshirt freshman 2025 season. We LOSE Mertz by 2025 (and Billy could be under SERIOUS PRESSURE by then TOO), so I expect there to be some effort to have DJ up to speed, maybe even forgoing his "redshirt", by the second half of '24.
All the MORE reason to get Max Brown as much meaningful ONFIELD experience as possible as SOON as possible: He COULD concievably be our starting QB at the beginning of 2025, should DJ develop more slowly than is probably HOPED, at this point. Anyway, we shall SEE.

 

[DRU2012]

By the way:
Max looked pretty damn good HIMSELF in the 4th quarter last night!
We'd seen flashes hear abd there of his talent and progress intermittently in tge course of tge season, but last night was a bit of a "revelation":
Maxx Brown was NOT the reason we didn't get (or even go for) the touchdown that "woukla/shoulda/coulda" won the game last night.
IMHO it was Billy Napier's FEAR that had us essentially shut down the offense inside the 20 with almost 2 minutes left, the best LONG-kicker in college football sitting over on the opposite bench.
"Scared money don't MAKE money!" (Thanks for reminding us of Billy's own WORDS, @Escambia94, )
...and in MY view Billy is playing with little BUT "scared money", at this point.

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a more compact version of the Gator QB season ratings since 2009.

1. Kyle Trask 180.0 (2020)
2. Feleipe Franks 173.4 (2019)
3. Graham Mertz 157.8 (2023)
4. Kyle Trask 156.2 (2019)
5. Will Grier 145.6 (2015)
6. Feleipe Franks 143.4 (2018)
7. Emory Jones 141.1 (2021)
8. John Brantley 140.8 (2011)
9. Jeff Driskel 135.5 (2013)
10. Jacoby Brissett 134.9 (2012)
11. Jeff Driskel 132.2 (2012)
12. Anthony Richardson 130.1 (2022)
13. Skyler Mornhinweg 128.2 (2013)
14. Austin Appleby 128.0 (2016)
15. Tyler Murphy 121.1 (2013)
16. Luke Del Rio 118.6 (2016)
17. Treon Harris 118.1 (2015)
18. Jordan Reed 117.2 (2010)
19. John Brantley 116.8 (2010)
20. Malik Zaire 104.9 (2017)
21. Jeff Driskel 103.5 (2014)

 

[DRU2012]

Here is a more compact version of the Gator QB season ratings since 2009.

1. Kyle Trask 180.0 (2020)
2. Feleipe Franks 173.4 (2019)
3. Graham Mertz 157.8 (2023)
4. Kyle Trask 156.2 (2019)
5. Will Grier 145.6 (2015)
6. Feleipe Franks 143.4 (2018)
7. Emory Jones 141.1 (2021)
8. John Brantley 140.8 (2011)
9. Jeff Driskel 135.5 (2013)
10. Jacoby Brissett 134.9 (2012)
11. Jeff Driskel 132.2 (2012)
12. Anthony Richardson 130.1 (2022)
13. Skyler Mornhinweg 128.2 (2013)
14. Austin Appleby 128.0 (2016)
15. Tyler Murphy 121.1 (2013)
16. Luke Del Rio 118.6 (2016)
17. Treon Harris 118.1 (2015)
18. Jordan Reed 117.2 (2010)
19. John Brantley 116.8 (2010)
20. Malik Zaire 104.9 (2017)
21. Jeff Driskel 103.5 (2014)

Thanks for this, E--...
One of SEVERAL things it highlights, I think, is the "good fortune"/"Bad Luck!" neatly outlined in said list: The history of BOTH are well-reflected there. A specific example is how, while flashes of great talent in a succession of quarterbacks is definitely there (for eg. Frank's great arm strength in HIS high appearance(s) on the list, it does NOT necessarily fill in important points like how we actually caught a strange (ie. a GOOD sort of) "break" when Franks got hurt after his (well-performed) first 4 games to start that season--and in turn made way for Kyle Trask, whom (along with the "OTHER Kyle") together turned out to BOTH be REVELATIONS, Trask himself being the best QB we'd had since TT...and now MERTZ is at least quite CLOSE to moving onto that role, and at that LEVEL!
With Brown now apparently coming around, we finally DO appear to have a viable solid QB-room (ie. QB-1, Backup, and eventually "outstanding QB-1 to BE" in DJ Lagway) developing.
The various "Parts" may be coming together; if we can just somehow hold onto the bill of what at least WAS a nice D-heavy class of recruits for 2024, things COULD be shaping up relatively soon here after all. Starting to look a little shaky, but they haven't gone TOTALLY down-the-drain YET.