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Postgame #4

Discussion in 'Gator Football' started by DRU2012, Sep 22, 2019.

  1. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Take aways from this one:
    We are essentially in good shape at QB, at least for the rest of THIS season--long as Trask remains healthy. Now, Emory Jones is further behind in HIS development than many of us no doubt thought and hoped; Mullens and his coaching staff are going to be "tip towing through a mine field" trying to win THIS season (which more and more appears to require relying on Trask rather than developing a "2-Headed Monster" approach I think Coach Dan was HOPING would ENHANCE our overall threat as an offense, while keeping Emory happy while further developing his ongoing growth towards what they HOPE he will eventually BE...)
    As things are, it now looks as if at least for now, Jones isn't yet far enough along to do much of all that and not weaken our chances for wins; at the very least, right now bringing him in appears to consistently destroy the rhythm, efficiency and overall effectiveness of the gameplan and flow of play...
    If they still truly insist they mean to establish a consistent multi-pronged attack with the two different contrasting quarterbacks freely exchanged in creative fashion, Jones will have to be brought along FAST from here. I fear a frustrating failure that ultimately in fact "accomplishes" just the opposite--a bad loss or two, the offense having regressed and Jones eventually back sitting on the bench, quietly planning his "transfer" come the off-season.
    So Mullens must tread carefully: This is a touchy, tricky process he is contemplating. I'm not saying he cannot manage it with the people he has around him here now...
    If anyone can, I trust Mullens to pull it off--win now with Trask the starter/leader, while bringing Jones up to speed in the old "Tebow-in-the-Red-Zone" wrinkle that makes Emory an essential (if specialized) component of a hard-charging, finish-STRONG offense (even as he developes further as a more and more COMPLETE QB), and eventually at least fairly COMPETES for the job as QB-1/starter.
    Meanwhile, Mullens will HAVE to continue going after a 4- or (even MORE so) 5-Star QB prospect out on the recruiting trail, regardless (This was gonna be in the cards ANYWAY, just as a matter of course, for the sake of "insurance" and "the Future")--which could of course (these days--Kyle Trask and all the nice things folks are saying about him notwithstanding) throw a monkey wrench into the whole affair (they will have to make sure Jones understands all this, has no reason to be automatically threatened by it !). But no use getting ahead of ourselves, "borrowing trouble" from some mythical "future scenario". I can see all KINDS of pitfalls in trying to map "alternative futures"--which is EXACTLY what Head Coaches are expected to do now and what "LUCK", fortune "good" or "bad" has FAR too much bearing on.
    Mullens has clearly TRIED to inject a rational approach in imposing HIS WILL and personal insights into the process; he is making a conscious effort to bring HIS philosophy and experience to bear in PLANNING that future, hoping IT SEEMS for such work to pay off in control over what the eventual "raw materials" (ie. actual TALENT among his eventual recruiting "haul") will turn out to BE... The thing is, after seeing how the results of his LAST such effort, what had LOOKED like his best class yet by far, through subsequent circumstances, realities, revelations and rules changes eroded, then eventually busted APART the bulk of that "highly-ranked-by-experts" group, well, I'm sure he is at BEST now "treading cautiously", to say the least. NO ONE really knows where all of these changes will lead--or even STOP, for that matter, let alone how far their actual effects will reach, in practical terms.
    So it is pretty well back to doing your best to get the guys who your research, eye balls and intuitive ("gut-level") FEELINGS tell you will fill your needs--all the while hoping that they will then actually live up to their promises and/or committments, make GOOD on their word in a world where the main message is now "Show me the MONEY!!!"
     
  2. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    (PS. After a whole game and aftermath with very little (save E-'s invaluable statistical analysis) in the way of feedback from our regs, I am truly interested in reading y'all's THOUGHTS on all of this!)
    (PPS. After catching the game replay, there is much I could say--about mistakes and required improvements on BOTH sides of the ball, btw...but the MAIN point that has reared its ugly face in every game so far can be stated in one word:
    Tackling. Tackling. TACKLING, Damnit!)
     
  3. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    Both guys are going to see action next week against Towson and the next 3 out of 4 games is against highly ranked teams.
     
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  4. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    This game was a complete game that was marred by three turnovers from a first-time starter. Dan Mullen and Brian Johnson ran a good mix of NFL plays and spread-option/ zone-read, along with a bit of RPO. Kyle Trask and Kyle Pitts both did a great job on the little things, such as leverage and eye discipline. Trask often went to his third and fourth reads. He used his eyes to manipulate defenders out of position. Coaching makes a big difference. This play below is a Mills Concept from 2015 game against LSU. The Mills Concept was always one of Steve Spurrier's favorites. In 2015 this play worked against a very good LSU defense in a 4-2-5 (nickel) that shifted into a Cover 4. In 2019, this play devastated the Tennessee defense that pretty much stayed in nickel defense the whole game when they discovered Florida had no running game. The 2019 version is better, because the Gators have larger receivers to stick into the slot for the dig route, and the receivers have been better coached to read leverage and take option routes. What this means to the 2019 Gators is that the analysis of this game goes well beyond mere statistics. This team may frustrate fans by looking like previous years, but this team does all the little things so much better. If the Gators can get a run threat going, then plays like this will be just as explosive as they were under Spurrier. This played worked twice against Tennessee without that run threat, because Tennessee football is hot garbage. This game was basically a scrimmage for Mullen and Johnson to try plays they will need against Auburn, LSU, and Georgia, but to do so without putting the Gators in jeopardy of losing. This is why Emory Jones was plugged in for obvious run plays--to test out new running and blocking concepts without divulging the actual plays that Jones will be running against more dangerous SEC teams.
    Screenshot_2019-09-23 Florida Gators Passing Concepts - Inside The Pylon.png
     
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  5. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Kyle Trask finished 20/28 for 293 yards (10.5 YPA), 2 TD, 2 INT, 70.8 QBR, 168.6 RAT and a yards above replacement (YAR) of 2.1. A YAR of 2.1 is basically at the level of Tua Tagovailoa. Take away those two interceptions, and that RAT goes to 182.9, and those two were not necessarily bad throws for a first-time starter.
     
  6. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    No argument possible there; thing is, what form will it take, and how to "read" the results--both from our "fan-centric" and/or imagined PLAYER-centric points-of-view? Is it even possible to anticipate the latter--and more important, I would LOVE to think our Coach could recognize and reassure young Emory that his best path and longterm growth were properly being taken into account!
    Perhaps there is good reason for this to take a little longer: Let his own growth and experience, on the one hand, and the ongoing growth and development of the TEAM AROUND HIM to form up properly. I'm just throwing that idea out there at the moment--but it appears to have some merit, now that I do.
    In this way, he could end up being "the right guy at the right time", ultimately, while the program continues its upward climb amid increasing success.
     
  7. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    Penetrating analysis...and this break down further contributes to my prior proposal that we don't yet (but could eventually) have exactly the kind of team AROUND Emory that can properly exploit all his talent and developing skills in seasons ahead (might even allow Franks to fit nicely in for a season here if THAT'S how all the still-unkown "future-factors" fall).
     
  8. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    I will assume that Franks is done as a QB at UF. He has a baseball contract with the Boston Red Sox waiting for him. He was projected as a round 5-7 or UFA if he had continued on with this season. With a broken ankle, he would definitely be a UFA. His best option would be to stay at UF until he graduates, and to use the UF rehab facilities at his disposal as a scholarship athlete.

    Kyle Trask might graduate with a master's degree by next season, so his best option would be to try his luck as a UFA, or to return as a graduate assistant and get into coaching.

    Unless Emory Jones throws a ton of interceptions this year, he is going to be the starter next year with Anthony Richardson competing behind him. There is a possibility that Trask or Franks returns a year from now, but I think that chance is rather low.
     
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  9. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    Actually, Franks is an RS Junior though he might graduate and join another school. Trask is an RS Junior as well. 2020 should be interesting with the QB battle but then again probably better to think about this season and worry about 2020 after this season.
     
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  10. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    I'm not so sure...I'm thinking that Filiepe's typically emotional "1st response" will probably give way to a more calculated (and hopefully more realistic) approach to his future...I'd forgotten about his MLB contract offer, but right now I think he's still thinking in terms of coming back as the Gator star QB-1. We'll have to see how it all plays out; nothing short of him coming back and DAZZLING the college football world really improve his position in the pro draft, seems to me. I wish him well, understand that we owe him thanks, respect, and whatever help and support we can give in his rehab/recovery--but we have to consider our own progress and best interests as well. It seems likely that on virtually every level of consideration regarding OUR growth and progress we will have to make decisions that are best for the PROGRAM--and these may be at odds with an emotional view of FRANKS' "ideal scenario".
     
  11. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    I THOUGHT so: The fact that Franks was still just a Junior was always looming in the background--GOOD news if he finally blossomed and had that breakout season of stardom, and THEN was faced with a big choice going into his Senior year... but even THAT had darker overtones regarding our keeping Jones.
    Now all that is REALLY confused...The possibilities are many--but no matter what, more than ever Mullen and the UF braintrust MUST think in terms of The Program, its future and that of its prospective key players.
    But in the end, your summation is truly the bottom line here:
    "...probably better to think about this season and worry about 2020 after..."
    (I get a headache even contemplating all the rest!)
     
  12. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    That is exactly why I do not see both of them returning--they are both RS Jr, but one of them is already working on a master's degree and one has a baseball contract. Both of them have developed strong connections to Florida, but both are in awkward positions if they return in 2020. The best move for Franks is to use the Florida facilities to rehab for a baseball career, because history is not on his side for a successful football return. The best move for Trask is to either light the world on fire in 2019 and hope for a UFA contract, or come back in 2020 as a graduate assistant and get into coaching. There is no good option for them either to return in 2020 with Emory Jones and Anthony Richardson and a potential transfer or walk-on (such as Luke Matthews) all waiting in the background. Pushing off QBs another year is not good in today's era of college football thanks to the transfer portal.
     
  13. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    The bad news is that the running game is horrible. The good news is that the passing game is the best it has been in a long time. The defense is doing well, but they will need to maintain this level as the Gators head into the meat of the schedule.
    • Florida is 4-0 for the first time since 2015, but like 2015 it is too early to tell what will happen with a change at QB.
    • Florida has thrown for 300 yards three times in a season for the first time since 2009 with Tim Tebow. The last times the Gators had three 300-yard passing games in a season were in 2003, 2004, and 2007.
    • Florida QB Kyle Trask amassed 293 yards passing, which was the highest since Austin Appleby passed for 296 against Tennessee in 2016 and John Brantley passed for 329 against Furman in 2011.
    • Florida and Washington State are the only FBS teams with 6 receivers with 5+ receptions and 100 yards.
    • Florida is one of 7 FBS teams with 4 explosive plays over 60 yards--with 2 of them by Sr WR Josh Hammond.
    • Florida is tied for the FBS lead in sacks with 20, and its 37 TFL are #5 in the nation--and they reached this mark in half the time compared to last year.
    • Florida is #5 in the nation in takeaways, #2 in INTs.
    • Florida is #2 in red zone defense and #6 in opponent red zone TD%.
    • Florida's passing offense is #27 in the nation, but its total offense is #58 due to the lackluster rushing offense.
    • Florida's total defense is #23 in the nation (#23 against the run, #38 against the pass).
     
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  14. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    The GOOD news is that in this (somewhat strange) case, that "bad running game" is somewhat fixable--and FAST fixable at that--for the same reason that it is "surprisingly bad" in the FIRST place:
    We expected it to be better because we had some talented, multi-skilled backs with varied skills ready to GO back there--and though thin, the O-line LOOKED to "learn, grow and get better" as it gelled as a unit. As it turned out, though, the dreaded "early nagging injuries" to some of EACH threw all that off practically from the start--almost a worst case scenario, "Perfect Storm" of kind-of-injury to what guy at what point early on has highlighted our seeming weaknesses there...Mullens has had to scheme his way AROUND all that, where passing, using his QB's contrasting skills and creative play-calling has allowed them to generate plenty of offense so far, especially with our defense playing so well--but we better hope we get most of our guys back and quickly up to speed as we hit the meat of our SEC schedule ahead, AND are able to execute a creative overall gameplan each week against some of the best teams in the country...
    OR "-and-oh..." could become "-and-3..." REAL fast in October, if not.
     
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  15. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    I think it's too soon to predict whose going to be quarterback in 2020. Franks and Trask have options after this season especially if they graduate. I know Mullen wants Jones to start but would he force out both guys to do that?
     
  16. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    That's a good question. I don't think so--ESPECIALLY if he doesn't HAVE to, which (for reasons that have become more and more obvious and germaine) seen from the sidelines these last few means of PLAY, appears more and more to be the case here...
     
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  17. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    @Leakfan12,
    Anyway, I am fairly confident that our overall situation is about as calmly promising as it can possibly be. How ELSE can a team develop a "quarterback of the future" nowadays (one of Mullens' specialities we have seen REPEATEDLY over the years), yet KEEP good ones you've already GOT, whether in there now OR sitting by due to injury (BOTH situations currently applicable to US), than a "creatively flexible" approach adapted uniquely each season to the situation-at-HAND?
    No guarantees as to how it'll all likely play out, but, just as he manages to recognize AND bring out the best in the QBs he finds (and/or finds himself WITH, when he COMES to a new job), here at UF he has done (and continues to do) a unique job of adapting to and maximizing the actual factors in play here--many of which were unforeseen, impossible to anticipate except in the most abstract, "what if THIS happens?" way...
    Overall, this has turned out to be just one more reason we can relax, have confidence in our Head Coach and his self-composed, good-natured and FAIR way of doing things. Personally, beyond "liking" his COACHING style AND performance thus far, I actually LIKE THE MAN!
    First time I can actually, honestly and wholeheartedly say that since Spurrier. And a big part of that (and I suspect this is true for his players, especially his QBs) is that I feel we can TRUST him--take him at his word: When Mullens DOESN'T have an honest response he feels he can share publicly at that particular moment, it seems pretty clear that he just won't say ANYTHING.
    Again: Anyone COULD choose to do the same, but he is one of the VERY FEW who actually GOES that route. He's a KEEPER, for SURE!
     
  18. Leakfan12

    Leakfan12 VIP Member

    If Franks, Trask, or both decide to graduate play another year of college ball elsewhere what are the chances that they'll play in the NFL?
     
  19. Escambia94

    Escambia94 Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE) Moderator

    Kyle Trask is no longer eligible for graduate transfer, because he has already enrolled in graduate-level classes at Florida. His best route to the NFL will be to do very well this season and get a good draft grade for the 2020 NFL Draft. His NFL talent evaluation begins with the game against Towson, because the scouts will be in attendance to watch Tom Flacco, brother of NFL QB Joe Flacco. He could also stay for his fifth year, but it is extremely rare for a QB to stay five years. The list of five-year quarterbacks who have done well in that fifth year has only one name on it: Texas QB Colt McCoy. Kyle seems like a smart kid, so maybe he comes back for his fifth year and signs as an undrafted free agent and follows the Colt McCoy path for NFL minimum salary of $480k or maybe 2nd-team salary of $3M. In the 2020 or 2021 NFL Draft he would be competing for draft stock against Tua Tagovailoa (Alabama '21), Justin Herbert (Oregon '20), Jake Fromm (Georgia '21), Jacob Eason (Washington '20 or '21), Trevor Lawson (Clemson '21), Sam Ehlinger (Texas '20 or '21), Justin Fields (Ohio State '21), JT Daniels (SC '21), Jalen Hurts (Oklahoma '20), Kellen Mond (aTM '20), KJ Costello (Stanford '20), Joe Burrow (LSU '20). Unless he has a stellar 2019-2020 season, he would be ranked as the #20-#25 QB in the 2020 class or #15-#20 in the 2021 class.

    Feleipe Franks could come back for his fifth year, but he would need to assume that he is no longer the starter. Historically, this does not happen in college, because the resources are not the same as they are in the NFL. NFL athletes with access to NFL salaries, NFL-quality medical facilities, NFL-quality health care, and NFL-quality physical therapy can expect to return to routine activities within 12 weeks, but are generally given 12 months to return to football shape. Feleipe's best path to the NFL is to return the Gators his senior year as a backup, and use the down time to finish his degree and make use of Florida's sports medicine facilities. Before the injury he was considered the #20 QB in the 2020 class, #9 QB in the 2021 class. I cannot find any case in history where a QB returned from season-ending injury like Feleipe's dislocated/ fractured ankle and took back the starting QB position in a 4th or 5th year and reclaimed his slot in the draft prospect board. Franks has the advantage of a Boston Red Sox contract waiting for him, and MLB is has a farm system to help him through the injury recovery as he relearns how to play baseball.

    Emory Jones might be willing to put off starting another year. We really know little of Emory's personality and motivations. One thing we knew about Kyle and Feleipe is that they both loved the idea of being Gators more than they loved the idea of being starters heading to the NFL. That is hard to find in today's sports.
     
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  20. DRU2012

    DRU2012 Super Moderator Staff Member Super Moderator

    @Escambia94,
    Thanks for that (as always) penetratimg analysis/overview vis a vis our QBs; I had a host of questions, and you have answered the bulk of them.
    Now, lets see...Where does that leave us?
    What are YOUR thoughts, man?
    I certainly get the impression Feleipe WANTS to come back, take another crack in what would be his Senior year--but that MLB contract is sitting out there too: There will be those whispering "THAT'S the SMART move..." in his ear... But even WITH all the arguments and issues you raise, Feleipe is an emotional guy; I'm not so sure THAT doesn't affect his ultimate decision.
    With Kyle, I get the impression that if he thinks he CAN continue to lead this team, he will try--and it will likely be a cleaner, CLEARER decision in his case...How THIS season goes rest of the way will have a huge bearing on BOTH young men and their decisions, obviously.
    Now we turn to Emory. If you study the 4th quarter this past Sat and extrapolate, you get a glimpse of what Dan Mullens sees when he stands back, watches, plans, DREAMS for his offense, team and program down the road: The kid has all the talent and skills our Coach envisioned in the driver's seat of the slick and powerful roadster he has had in mind here since he was the OC under Urban Meyer. I have noted this before, but I truly believe he sees many elements of Cam Newton in Emory's game, and can't WAIT to fully build a multi-headed MONSTER of an offense AROUND him. So no matter what, he MUST negotiate the eddies and currents of the new world of "transfer-portals" and "player opportunities", state-to-state and conference-to-conference, as the terrain changes and it all plays out in the months ahead.
    His best course I think is to stay true to himself: Continue to be straight and honest with your players on a group AND individual level--this natural propensity on our Coach's part will serve he AND his players well. I HOPE it leads somehow to a couple of years of continued rise and transition, leading ultimately (in my own, and I THINK our COACH'S ideal scenario) to an eventual high-flying "Gator/Mullens Spread", backed up by a killer Grantham (or at least Grantham-built and -inspired) Defense that will mark "The Return of the Gator" to the top of College Football.
     

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