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OGT 2023 Week 9: World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party 10/28/2023

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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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Overview
Welcome to the 100th meeting between rivals in what many still call "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party". The plot this year is somewhat similar to last year's as the Gators are unranked and the Bulldogs are firing on all cylinders as the #1 team in America. Last year the Gators were 4-3 (1-3), but this year the Gators are 5-2 (3-1). Just like last year, Georgia is undefeated. Just like last year the line opened up at 21 points in favor of the defending national champions, but the line has backed down to 14.5 with an over/under of 49. The Gators are only given a 15% chance of victory. As always, the game will be played in Jacksonville and aired on CBS for likely the last time. The series is 44-54-2 in favor of Georgia. The Bulldogs have won two in a row.
gator bait ai-alligator-bulldog-chase.png


Keys to the Game
Graham Mertz is not as explosive as Anthony Richardson was last year, and the running game is nowhere near where it was last year.

In terms of designed runs not counting QB scrambles, the Gators are slightly better than last year. The passing game has shown spurts of explosiveness when Napier has called for or encouraged the deep pass option in his high-low passing concepts. Some of the deep shots were due to SCAR going into Cover-1 or Cover-0 more than other opponents.

Stat Comparison
No surprise here, but the Bulldogs lead the Gators in just about all the statistical categories.
UGAFLA
Total Yards509.4421.7
Yards Passing337.0280.4
Yards Rushing172.4141.3
Yards Allowed262.6312.4
Pass Yards Allowed171.1187.6
Rush Yards Allowed91.4124.9

Season Summaries
The Gators have won two in a row since a gut-checking loss to Kentucky. Florida's performance has been relatively steady other than a tendency-breaking offensive explosion against South Carolina, which corresponded with a defensive implosion. The special teams have not been an issue in a few weeks now that the Gators have figured out how to get 10 or 11 players on the field, each wearing unique jersey numbers. If the Gators can keep the game close, the Smack Attack might become the key to a victory.
DateOpponentResultRecordHigh PassHigh RushHigh Reception
Thu, Aug 31@14 UtahL24-11 0-1 (0-0)Mertz 333 137.0RATEtienne 25Pearsall 92
Sat, Sep 9vs McNeeseW49-7 5-2 (3-1)Mertz 193 197.1RATJohnson Jr. 119Pearsall 123
Sat, Sep 16vs 11 TennesseeW29-16 2-1 (1-0)Mertz 166 151.0RATEtienne 172Wilson III 44
Sat, Sep 23vs CharlotteW22-7 3-1 (1-0)Mertz 284 200.6RATJohnson Jr. 63Pearsall 99
Sat, Sep 30@KentuckyL33-14 3-2 (1-1)Mertz 244 167.0RATJohnson Jr. 42Pearsall 62
Sat, Oct 7vs VanderbiltW38-14 4-2 (2-1)Mertz 254 170.1RATJohnson Jr. 135Boardingham 99
Sat, Oct 14@South CarolinaW41-39 5-2 (3-1)Mertz 423 157.2RATJohnson Jr. 50Pearsall 166

Georgia's offense has more play makers than Florida, so the Gators will have their work cut out for them when trying to shut down one of their strengths.
DateOpponentResultRecordHigh PassHigh RushHigh Reception
Sat, Sep 2vs UT MartinW48-7 1-0 (0-0)Beck 294 158.1RATMilton 53Bowers 78
Sat, Sep 9vs Ball StateW45-3 2-0 (0-0)Beck 283 171.2RATRobinson II 38Smith 50
Sat, Sep 16vs South CarolinaW24-14 3-0 (1-0)Beck 269 141.7RATEdwards 118Rosemy-Jacksaint 71
Sat, Sep 23vs UABW49-21 4-0 (1-0)Beck 338 188.4RATEdwards 66Bowers 121
Sat, Sep 30@AuburnW27-20 5-0 (2-0)Beck 313 153.3RATEdwards 76Bowers 157
Sat, Oct 7vs 20 KentuckyW51-13 6-0 (3-0)Beck 389 205.4RATEdwards 54Bowers 132
Sat, Oct 14@VanderbiltW37-20 7-0 (4-0)Beck 261 133.9RATEdwards 146Lovett 72

Prediction
There is no logical way the Gators can win this game, but this year's Bulldogs have shown occasion windows of vulnerabilty that the Gators could take advantage of if the defense and offense come together at the same time.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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"SMACK ATTACK"?
God help the team who comes in here counting on its fg-kicker to bring victory. For the Gators, some kind of miraculous eruption in all phases of the game, offense, defense AND special teams, seems a more likely path to a W this week.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Alright. Time to turn our attention fully to the task at hand.
I'm gonna try and keep it simple--even short and, well, no WAY it'll be "sweet".
We have a mountain to climb, and I just don't KNOW if we are yet up to it. I THINK we are up FOR it--which if true gives us that "puncher's chance" that can yield winners in rival games.
However, even WITH Bowers, their star and true "heart of that team", out, they still have talent and depth at practically every position: His absence only means that they will try and run us into the GROUND.
Can this Gator D respond well enough to at worst "bend and not break"??? Can (WILL?) Napier turn Mertz loose in a well-designed passing game, get the lead early and make it stick?
I just don't know, but I can't say I'm full of hope.
So: NOT "Hopeless".
But not exactly BRIMMING with the stuff either.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Alright. Time to turn our attention fully to the task at hand.
I'm gonna try and keep it simple--even short and, well, no WAY it'll be "sweet".
We have a mountain to climb, and I just don't KNOW if we are yet up to it. I THINK we are up FOR it--which if true gives us that "puncher's chance" that can yield winners in rival games.
However, even WITH Bowers, their star and true "heart of that team", out, they still have talent and depth at practically every position: His absence only means that they will try and run us into the GROUND.
Can this Gator D respond well enough to at worst "bend and not break"??? Can (WILL?) Napier turn Mertz loose in a well-designed passing game, get the lead early and make it stick?
I just don't know, but I can't say I'm full of hope.
So: NOT "Hopeless".
But not exactly BRIMMING with the stuff either.
On any given Saturday…

Regardless, it will be stressful.
IMG_1103.jpeg
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
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I'll be here at kick off...But I doubt I will still be watching at game's end.
I wish to HELL this was just the usual "Big Game Jitters"--but it is worse than that, of course.
MUCH worse: This is the certainty of history, logic and long (TOO long) experience.
We may still be two years away from even that "puncher's chance" I mentioned earlier.
More like "lottery win" or "lightening strike" kind of chances at this point.
I mean, as others have noted: We come in with "hope in SPITE of ourselves", but the longer we are able to hold our own, keep things CLOSE (if we DO), the more that deep down, in our "heart-of-hearts" we are waiting for the other shoe to drop.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Super Moderator
I wish I could come into these games with the naive openness I once had.
No matter HOW the odds and prior performances seemed to stack up against us, I could still be excited, hyper-charged for this game EVERY year!
Not anymore, sad to say.
The best I can do now, despite everything I know and have seen so far, is at the very least to pose "THAT QUESTION" to myself--and of course now here, to all of you:
"WHAT IF??!"
There's SOME small, secret spark that bursts in the dark deep inside at THAT, anyway.
It'll likely die there. But then again...
TO HELL WITH GEORGIA.
GO GATORS!!!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
This rivalry has featured some interesting upsets. This year NR Florida (5-2) is facing #1 Georgia (7-0). Van the Gators pull off another one, or is Kirby Smart’s juggernaut going to dominate just as Steve Spurrier’s did in the 1990s.
  • 1984 #10 Florida (6-1-1) 27, #8 Georgia (7-1) 0
  • 1986 NR Florida (4-4) 31, #19 Georgia (6-2) 19
  • 1992 #20 Florida (4-2) 26, #7 Georgia (7-1) 24
  • 2002 NR Florida (5-3) 20, #4 Georgia (8-0) 13
  • 2003 #23 Florida (5-3) 16, #4 Georgia (7-1) 13
  • 2005 #16 Florida (5-2) 14, #4 Georgia (7-0) 10
  • 2014 NR Florida (3-3) 38, #11 Georgia (6-1) 20
  • 2020 #8 Florida (3-1) 44, #5 Georgia (4-1) 28
I cannot confirm, but I believe the 1984 game was the last time Florida ever stormed the field after a win and took down the goal posts. I need to verify that one. In 1985 it was Georgia storming the field. In 1986 the city of Jacksonville offered to donate the goalposts to the winning team to deter fans from taking them down.
 
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DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
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RISE UP, GATOR NATION! IT’S GAME DAY!View attachment 865
I WANT TO.
I really do.
Forces seem arrayed against us--against ME in particular, in fact: I went to switch my TV over to receive over-the-air reception of CBS this afternoon, only to find my smart TV's remote not functioning. I couldn't actually access the direct signals received by the supposed "high-efficiency indoor antenna" that in the past has always given full and direct access to the local live channels. This business of having to switch over to CBS for a particular SEC game (usually a Gator game, of course) or one of the others (ABC, NBC, FOX) is something that comes up a coupla times each season last few years. (Yes, tried all the trouble-shooting recommendations--For the moment useless, at least until I repair or replace the original remote, it seems...NOT something I could address TODAY!).
Fortunately, I have discovered a fortunate (if a trifle clunky) "patch" available that should allow me to watch this game at home after all.
Not that I am confident I'll even want to BE there by the end. But for the moment, having found and locked in the CBS feed on my best TV, I am suffering through (with sound muted) the Indiana at Penn State game that the seemingly over matched IU squad has in fact managed to stay close in DESPITE doing everything possible to give this game away to Nitany Lions.
Ugh. I don't wanna risk messing with this solid reception--so I'll leave it on in here and go putter around elsewhere for a little over an hour or so.
I suppose all this amounts to my small concession to "HOPE" after all...A part of me was tempted by an invitation this morning to accompany some friends with an (unanticipated) extra ticket to the Texas vs BYU game over in Darryl K. Royal Stadium also kicking off at 2:30pm local time here...I almost accepted--but no: I am a Gator...It just wouldn't DO to miss a historic moment, however unlikely its actual realization.
For that would be what a Gator win today would amount to--a historic TURNING POINT: "premature but UNMISTAKEABLE".
So: Though I do NOT expect it, do not even promise that I will even still BE WATCHING the damn thing by the 4th quarter...Indeed, despite the fact that I suspect we are at least a season AWAY from any such "I was watching WHEN"-moments, the fact remains that long odds or not, it remains POSSIBLE, here and now TODAY--And damn it, I intend to be watching if and when it DOES.
For the moment, that is what BEING A LOYAL GATOR amounts to, in my humble opinion:
Noting progress, finding what we can in whatever it signifies--and BEING THERE WHEN THE WORM TURNS!!!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I can't believe it...
City of Jacksonville RESODS THIS FIELD ON MONDAY...It hasn't regrowth in properly, and our bedt tackler, Shepard Jajes comes out and it gives on him awkwardky: He is HURT before the game even kicks OFF.
Like I said: Things going against us already here (we lost the coin toss too).
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Need to stay open and aggressive on Offense here now...Do they have a complete "flipside passing scheme" to the one that drove the field the first time? Use Wilson as decoy, run Piersal LONG??!
 

DRU2012

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Super Moderator
Pathetic. Well, pretty good HALF a quarter, anyway. Guess that could be about IT--Too bad: We had it going again there until they got silly on offehse again.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
This is the potential "turning point":
Either we hood abd turn it back over to our Offense now, or we surrender and die.
 
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