OGT 2023 Week 5: #22 Florida (3-1) 14 at Kentucky 33 (9/30/2023)

[Escambia94]

Overview
The #22 Florida Gators travel to Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky to face the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, September 30th at noon EDT on ESPN. Kentucky is favored by 1, which is down from 3 earlier in the week.

The Gators lead the all-time series 53-20 in a rivalry that goes back to 1917, but they have lost back to back games for the first time since 1976-1977. Previously the Gators lost back to back games in 1955-1956, 1948-1951, and 1935-1936 (not counting the 1931 game with 1935-1936 and 1917 game with 1926).

The past few games have shown that Florida’s dominance over Kentucky cannot be taken for granted as it had been between 1990-2017.

• 9/10/2022 Gainesville, FL UF 16, UK 26
• 10/2/2021 Lexington, KY UF 13, UK 20
• 11/28/2020 Gainesville, FL UF 34, UK 10
• 9/14/2019 Lexington, KY UF 29, UK 21
• 9/8/2018 Gainesville, FL UF 16, UK 27

Comparison
The Gators and the Wildcats are evenly matched on offense and the Gators have a better defense.

Stat	UF	UK
Total Yards	412.5	396.5
Yards Passing	247.8	265.0
Yards Rushing	164.8	131.5
Yards Allowed	245.0	293.3
Pass Yards Allowed	162.8	215.8
Rush Yards Allowed	82.3	77.5

Scouting the Gators
The Gators have the more talented but lesser experienced offense.

Pos	No.	Player	Ht, Wt
WR-X	4	Douglas, Caleb SO	6-3, 200
WR-Z	1	Pearsall, Ricky SR/TR	6-1, 190
WR-Y	22	Jackson, Kahleil RS SO	6-3, 210
LT	58	Barber, Austin RS SO	6-6.25, 300
LG	67	Leonard IV, Richie JR	6-1.5, 310
OC	65	Eguakun, Kingsley	6-3, 300
OC	66	Slaughter, Jake RS SO	6-4.5, 295
RG	54	Mazzccua, Micah RS JR/TR	6-4.75, 325
RT	76	George Jr., Damieon RS JR/TR	6-6, 355
TE	87	Odom, Jonathan RS JR	6-5.25, 250
QB	15	Mertz, Graham RS SR/TR	6-2.75, 215
RB	7	Etienne, Trevor SO	5-8.75, 205
RB	2	Johnson Jr., Montrell JR/TR	5-11.25, 215
F/ DE	94	Sapp, Tyreak RS SO	6-2.5, 275
NT	99	Jackson, Cam SR/TR	6-6, 360
END/ DT	88	Banks, Caleb RS SO/TR	6-5.75, 320
JACK	1	Umanmielen, Princely JR	6-4.5, 255
MLB	17	Williams, Scooby RS SO	6-2.5, 230
WLB	6	James, Shemar SO	6-1.25, 230
LCB	8	Kimber, Jalen RS JR/TR	6-0, 185
SS	14	Castell, Jordan FR	6-2, 200
FS	10	Mitchell, Miguel SO	6-1, 215
RCB	3	Marshall Jr., Jason JR	6-1, 200
STAR	23	Hill, Jaydon RS JR	5-11.5, 195

Scouting the Opponent
The Wildcats have built a good team through the transfer portal.

Pos	No.	Player	Ht, Wt
WR-X	6	Key, Dane SO	6-3, 194
WR-Z	7	Brown, Barion SO	6-1, 166
WR-F	9	Robinson, Tayvion SR/TR	5-11, 187
LT	69	Cox, Marques RS SR/TR	6-5, 311
LG/ LT	73	Ray, Dylan RS SO/TR	6-6, 305
OC	62	Burton, Jager RS SO	6-4, 307
RG	75	Cox, Eli RS SR	6-4, 311
RT	77	Flax, Jeremy SR/TR	6-6 325
TE/FB	85	Dingle, Jordan RS SO	6-4, 238
TE	80	Bates, Brenden RS SR	6-5, 231
QB	13	Leary, Devin RS SR/TR	6-1, 217
RB	1	Davis, Ray RS SR/TR	5-10, 216
DE	8	Oxendine, Octavious SR	6-1, 276
NT	9	Silver, Keeshawn RS SO/TR	6-4, 322
DT	00	Walker, Deone SO	6-6, 348
JACK/ OLB	13	Weaver, J.J. RS SR	6-5, 244
MLB	54	Jackson, D'Eryk SR	6-1, 245
WLB	32	Wallace, Trevin JR	6-2, 241
STAR (NB/ SLB)	3	Afari Jr., Alex SO	6-2 214
BCB	31	Hairston, Maxwell RS SO	6-1, 181
SS	11	Childress, Zion RS JR/TR	6-0, 201
FS	25	Lovett, Jordan RS SO	6-2, 195
FCB	23	Phillips, Andru RS JR	6-0, 190

Roster comparison
The Gators have the higher blue chip ratio (BCR) at 61.36 vs 34.85, the higher recruit ranking total (RRTOT), and better offensive and defensive first team vs Kentucky (O1vsD1 and D1vsO1). It is interesting to note that Kentucky’s second team is better than their first team, which means they are recruiting better and some of their underclassmen will be dangerous when they gain experience.

Category	UF	UK
BCR	61.36	34.85
RRTOT	3953.29	3686.73
O1vsD1	970.88	965.22
O2vsD2	965.61	1044.32
D1vsO1	1001.64	968.88
D2vsO2	1015.16	1000.06

Key Player Comparison

Statistic	UF	UK
Passing	QB Graham Mertz 84/108, 951 yd, 4 td, 1 int, 162.3 rat, 66.3 (#47)	QB Devin Leary 73/123, 1060 yd, 9 td, 5 int, 147.8 rat, 49.5 qbr (#83)
Rushing	RB Trevor Etienne 49 car, 329 yd, 2 td	RB R Davis 50 car, 314 yd, 5 td
Receiving	WR Ricky Pearsall 26 rec 362 yd, 1 td	WR T Robinson 16 rec, 283 yd, 3 td

Editor’s Pick
The line has moved to UK (-1) with an O/U of 44. I think this is a defensive slog with a final score of 21-17, Gators.

 

[DRU2012]

...I don't know.
I mean, the more I look, listen, absorb and analyze, the less confident I am in victory.
I agree it will likely be close--and that we have the tools to go there and WIN such a struggle. But it shouldn't even BE that huge "a struggle" in the FIRST place.
There are simply too many current questions as to our Coach's daring, not to mention this team's overall health and depth.
Eventually we're likely to grow and develop into a powerful team and program--the process has begun, but we clearly aren't there yet. We "SHOULD" have enough to beat UK now--but RIGHT now, at their place? Perhaps not.
Hope I'm wrong. The Defense has finally, truly come around. One by one, we can SEE other things being fixed. The addition of a creatively flexible offensive gameplan, on one of this team's overall "GOOD days", could itself make all the difference:
With the current relative lack of depth, we need to be fairly healthy, obviously...Beyond all that, I just long to see them HAVING FUN out there!
If the defense shuts them down and the offense in the course of a game finally has SEVERAL big plays downfield (that has GOT to be more a part of our game on offense, Coach--even a "predominantly running team" needs the realistic THREAT of such plays!), I can SEE us finding a way to WIN this one.
It is pivotal to this season for us, too.
We have "the tough stretch" of our SEC schedule looming--these NEXT two games aren't really even the "really HARD PART", either...but WIN them and we can exceed all expectations for ourselves coming INTO 2023; but lose in Lexington and we're probably headed for that "break even"/"heap of mediocrity" kind of record that most had us relegated to after Utah.
SO much depends on us breaking OUT of all that! We have unexpectedly managed to at least elbow our way back into some of the "national buzz"--and don't tell me THAT doesn't play SOME kind of part in the whole modern recruiting scrum!
Our Coach is clearly a sharp appraiser of talent; but we are only NOW grabbing he and his staff a seat at the "Adult's table", know what I'm saying? That's one more thing we are playing for now.

 

[Escambia94]

I have stopped complaining about Napier’s offense. It is what it is and it will not change in the middle of the year. Napier said he would address the OC in the offseason, whatever that means. I think today he can sit in a room with three of his coaches—Rob Sale, Billy Gonzalez, and Russ Calloway—and create a call-playing strategy that uses the same playbook more effectively. Those three have called plays before. If Napier is holding back play calling duties he had better fix the damn offense against Kentucky before the Gators drop a third game in a row. All that good faith he bought by beating Tennessee goes out the window if the Gators lose to Kentucky, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt due to bad offense.

 

[DRU2012]

I have stopped complaining about Napier’s offense. It is what it is and it will not change in the middle of the year. Napier said he would address the OC in the offseason, whatever that means. I think today he can sit in a room with three of his coaches—Rob Sale, Billy Gonzalez, and Russ Calloway—and create a call-playing strategy that uses the same playbook more effectively. Those three have called plays before. If Napier is holding back play calling duties he had better fix the damn offense against Kentucky before the Gators drop a third game in a row. All that good faith he bought by beating Tennessee goes out the window if the Gators lose to Kentucky, South Carolina, or Vanderbilt due to bad offense.

True. In fact, I too am losing confidence in our Coach's offensive acumen: At this rate, it's going to cost us a game or two against teams we are at least as good as even BEFORE we get to the ones who are a cut above.
As for details, I refer you all to Ali Peek's latest YouTube offering (Wednesday, September 27), wherein she fairly and succinctly nails all of this down.
Maybe you're right about Billy not making any drastic moves at OC during the current season; however, he can and in my view MUST show he can at the very LEAST better adjust and expand to more aggressive downfield aspects of the passing game. That may be difficult for a guy who is already shouldering so MANY separate in-game responsibilities for this program.
And THAT is exactly WHY he needs the right OC--one with specific in-game regard and focus on particular trends and tendencies an opposing DC is throwing at us.
For the first time I am seeing a certain stubbornness, inflexibility that is holding us back. It is going to bring some frustrating "woulda/shoulda/couldas", mark my words...and they will be of the kind that Gator fans in particular will see, hate and SCREAM ABOUT.
In this case they'll have some grounds for it.
Coach picked the right QB-1 outta the portal after all:
DON'T BE AFRAID TO USE HIM!

 

[DRU2012]

Alright:
I can't seem to get anyone's thoughts in response to my honest concerns...so as a last resort I suppose I'll simply try blurting out my "worst fears":
I hope I'm wrong, but what I'm most AFRAID of is that when it comes to "HIS OFFENSE", Billy won't change a THING--in the name of "flexibility", "adapting to the opponent" or anything ELSE!
Now, we ARE seeming to get healthier at just the right time, so he may be justified in feeling that now is JUST the time to show what his philosophy and "preferred scheme" can do.
That WON'T work forever, even if it gets us the win here--but I have this grinding feeling in my gut that this could be the start of the "problem with Billy Napier" slide.
I want so badly to be absolutely wrong--that his gameplan will produce an outcome that begins to put-to-REST such concerns...That we go on to "learn, grow and adapt", eventually garnering upwards of 8 or so wins and be on an unmistakable upward trend heading into 2024.
This game will be the signpost:
What we are and what we can be depends so much on who and what our Coach really is. How we do in this game, Coach's Napier's plan, prep, and how he has his team adapt in the actual process, will tell us a great deal about our present AND our future.

 

[Escambia94]

Florida is one of five defenses in the country allowing fewer than 15 points and 250 yards per game entering Week 5 (Michigan, Penn State, Ohio, Air Force).

The Gators are allowing just 13.5 points and 244.8 yards per contest, which are in line to be the team’s best marks since the 2001 (231.8) and 2009 seasons (12.4), respectively. These stats include two P5 matchups, one G5 matchup, and one FCS matchup.

 

[Escambia94]

Florida is in the midst of its first winning streak of three games or more since rattling off six-straight SEC victories from Oct. 31 - Dec. 5, 2020 (def. Missouri, Georgia, Arkansas, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Tennessee). Blame it on the curse of Marco Wilson’s shoe toss.

 

[Escambia94]

11 teams have faced two AP Top 25 opponents. Florida is one of two (Alabama) with a win - the others are all 0-2.

 

[Escambia94]

Mertz has completed 77.8% of his passes (84-for-108), which leads the SEC and ranks fourth nationally behind Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. Granted, Mertz’s average air yardage is lowest out of that group, but we will probably see a change as the Gators face tighter coverage.

 

[DRU2012]

Mertz has completed 77.8% of his passes (84-for-108), which leads the SEC and ranks fourth nationally behind Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel. Granted, Mertz’s average air yardage is lowest out of that group, but we will probably see a change as the Gators face tighter coverage.

This is more or less a reply to ALL of the last 3 posts...
I'm really HOPING that the "change" you forecast in coverages Napier will counter by adding more "downfield"/"over the top" passing plays to his gameplan here. This will have the dual effect of possibly catching them somewhat ill-prepared on defense AND opening up the run game (one their defense will otherwise be focused on) on offense somewhat.
Anyways, I see one of two potential "keys to victory" in an otherwise close game:
Either the offense hits a couple of explosively long passes for scores (the earlier in the game, the better), OR the defense gets a couple of big turnovers along the way that either prevent a score or somehow immediately produce POINTS for us.
These are things we haven't DONE yet, offense OR defense. If the game is as close as I fear it will be, either would likely be decisive.

 

[Escambia94]

This is more or less a reply to ALL of the last 3 posts...
I'm really HOPING that the "change" you forecast in coverages Napier will counter by adding more "downfield"/"over the top" passing plays to his gameplan here. This will have the dual effect of possibly catching them somewhat ill-prepared on defense AND opening up the run game (one their defense will otherwise be focused on) on offense somewhat.
Anyways, I see one of two potential "keys to victory" in an otherwise close game:
Either the offense hits a couple of explosively long passes for scores (the earlier in the game, the better), OR the defense gets a couple of big turnovers along the way that either prevent a score or somehow immediately produce POINTS for us.
These are things we haven't DONE yet, offense OR defense. If the game is as close as I fear it will be, either would likely be decisive.

The Napier offense, when it works, goes like this: run, pass, run. Repeat until the DBs creep up, the throw over the top. The problem is that it is obviously predictable, so the opposing defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage. If the receivers would run better routes they could make opponents pay for crowding the line.

 

[DRU2012]

The Napier offense, when it works, goes like this: run, pass, run. Repeat until the DBs creep up, the throw over the top. The problem is that it is obviously predictable, so the opposing defenses are crowding the line of scrimmage. If the receivers would run better routes they could make opponents pay for crowding the line.

Well, we are getting back all the guys we currently know we have that can make breaking all these "obviously predictable" tendencies that much easier. There ARE ways to USE such assumed "tendencies" AGAINST a defense crowding the line-of-scrimmage in response.
Our QB has done HIS part to be entrusted with the addition of a more aggressively creative offensive passing game on offense.
It's time Coach began to practically demonstrate the presumed skills in offensive scheming that are behind his assuming the role as his own OC in the first place, don't you think?

 

[Escambia94]

Kentucky RB Ray Davis was on the Vanderbilt team that beat Florida last year. He racked up 122 yards on 30 carries that day.

 

[Escambia94]

Florida is a 1½-point underdog at Kentucky, ending UF's 34-game streak as a favorite against UK. The last time the Wildcats were favored vs. UF was in 1988 when UK lost 24-19 as a 1-point favorite

 

[DRU2012]

Florida is a 1½-point underdog at Kentucky, ending UF's 34-game streak as a favorite against UK. The last time the Wildcats were favored vs. UF was in 1988 when UK lost 24-19 as a 1-point favorite

Pretty hyped there in Lexington.
Not quite the Swamp, but I have no idea how thus Gator team will respond to the early start this time. Sort of depends donewhat on lily's gameplan.
We REALLY need to hit them HARD early in this one, I'm afraid. Crap. Just the opposite, looks like.
3rd and long...get it--but big holding call.
We are gonna lose this one, boys. Making ALL the old f-ups again.
I am already getting ready to turn this one OFF!

 

[Escambia94]

With Matt Loeffler as referee you know the Gators will have ticky tack calls go against them.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators forgot how to play football.

 

[DRU2012]

Here we go--right into the hole.
They are executing--we are NOT: And here come the missed tackles of last year now.
This is quickly turning into a nightmare:
We aren't ready to PLAY.
DEPRESSING.

 

[Escambia94]

Kentucky RB Ray Davis just trucked Florida LB Shemar James.

 

[DRU2012]

We aren't tackling.
I am starting to get SICK of these let-down games under this Coach.