OGT 2023 Week 1: Florida Gators 11, #14 Utah Utes 24 (8/31/2023)

[Escambia94]

Florida Gators at #14 Utah Utes
How to watch or listen:
The Gators open up the season all alone on Thursday night as Hurricane Idalia bears down on the Sunshine State. For the fans able to watch the game, this match-up will be broadcast on ESPN, Cox Cable channel 7/ 1007, and DirecTV channel 8. Chris Fowler will do the play-by-play, Kirk Herbstreit will be the color analyst, and Holly Rowe will be reporting from on the field. For those of us who prefer to listen to the local audio broadcast, Sean Kelley, Shane Matthews, and Tate Casey will be available over Gator Sports Network from Learfield.

Overview:
Billy Napier is 46-19 (27-5 Sun Belt, 3-5 SEC) after 5 years of coaching, with this year being his second year in Hogtown. Kyle Whittingham is 154-74 (95-57 Pac-12) heading into his 19th season all at Utah. He is coming off a 10-4 (7-2) season where his worst loss was arguably to non-conference opponent Florida. Florida leads the all-time series 2-0 with a last-minute 29-26 victory last year, and a 38-29 victory in 1977. Florida is 9-5-1 all-time against the Pac-12, with their last match-up being an embarrassing 3-30 loss to #14 Oregon State.

Trivia:

• The highest ranked opening day opponent is #7, tied between 2022 (29-26 victory over Utah) and 1969 (59-7 victory over Houston).
• Florida is 8-13 all-time in true road game season openers, or 6-4 since 1956.
• This is Florida's third true road game in a season opener in 38 years (4-31 loss at Miami in 1987 and a 51-35 victory at Ole Miss in 2020).
• The Gators have only lost 1 season opener since 1990 (17-33 loss to Michigan in 2017 when the teams were ranked 11 and 17).
• The Gators return 4 starters on offense, 4 on defense, and 2 on special teams.
• The Gators have the NCAA record for longest scoring streak in America at 436 games without being shut out. The streak goes back to 1988.
• Despite last year's 6-7 record, the Gators outscored opponents 384-375, including 70-42 off turnovers.
• Two Gators on the roster are the sons of former Gators: WR Kahleil Jackson and S RJ Moten.

Discussion:
Earlier this year I predicted at loss in this game. Last year Utes were clearly the better team (finishing 10-4, 7-2), but the Gators got an assist from the hostile environment of the Swamp and the heat and humidity of Gainesville in September. This time the Utes will return the favor with their own hostile environment coupled with somewhat high altitude and dry air. The Utah offense looks like the offense that Billy Napier is trying to build for Florida: tough offensive line with a steamroller running game and multiple tight end sets. The line on this game has moved back and forth from Utah (-7) to Utah (-4) as there is doubt with Cam Rising’s health after an unexpectedly quick return from ACL surgery. Florida’s athletes are larger and faster than Utah’s, but lack of discipline and experience tip the scales towards the Utes. According to ESPN Utah has a 73% chance of winning based on what little data we have to feed the models. The line is at 46.5 points.

What they are saying:

• Utah linebacker Lander Barton summed up the Utes’ defensive performance against Florida in Gainesville a year ago succinctly.
  
  “It was bad football. We got beat in our gaps, beat in technique,”
• Coach Kyle Whittingham said the Utes missed 27 tackles. Heading into this year’s contest with the Gators, Utah put an emphasis on live tackling during fall camp.
• Linebackers Lander Barton and linebacker Karene Reid say that they feel much more prepared for Florida this season.
  
  “I’d say we’re a lot farther than we were last year preparing for Florida. We’ve been watching that game a lot recently and I feel like our backers are a lot more ready this year than last year,”

Key Utah players:

• Sataoa Laumea, OT Jr. - 2022 All-Pac-12
• Cole Bishop, S Jr.
• Cameron Rising, QB Sr. 3,034 PASS YDS / 216.7 YPG / 64.6% / 26 TD / 8 INT / 77 CAR / 466 RUSH YDS / 6 TD
• Brant Kuithe, TE Sr.
• Karene Reid, LB Jr. - 2022 All-Pac-12 (2nd team)
• Junior Tafuna, DT Jr. - 2022 All-Pac-12 (2nd team)
• Lander Barton, LB Soph. - 2022 Freshman DPOY
• Ja'Quinden Jackson, RB Soph.
• Devaughn Vele, WR Jr. 55 REC / 695 YDS / 49.6 YPG / 5 TD
• Miles Battle, CB Sr.

Key Gator players:

• Preseason award watch list includes Jeremy Crawshaw (Ray Guy Award), Caleb Douglas (Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Award), Trevor Etienne (Paul Hornung Award), Rick Pearsall (Maxwell Award, Campbell Trophy), Princely Umanmielen (Bednarik Award, Lombardi Award), and Derek Wingo (Wuerffel Trophy). RB Trevor Etienne, CB Jason Marshall Jr. and DE Princely Umanmielen all represented Florida on the media’s Preseason All-SEC Third Team.
• TNT ('Tienne n' 'Trell) with help from Anthony Richardson scored the most rushing touchdowns in 12 years (29), and were the first-most all time (2008 - 42, 2007 - 39, 2010 - 31, 2009 - 30). Montrell Johnson contributed 155 carries, 841 yards (5.4YPC) and 10 TDs. Trevor Etienne contributed 118 carries, 718 yards (6.1 YPC), and 6 TD. As a duo, TNT averaged 5.7 YPC and 120 YPG. Johnson was the first Gator running back to eclipse 800 yards since La'Mical Perine in 2018. TNT is being compared to the 2010 Demps and Rainey show.
• The receiving corps has been completely overhauled but will be led by Ricky Pearsall who had 661 yards last year--the most in a season since Kadarius Toney had 984 yards in 2020. If Pearsall can maintain this level of consistency he will remain on the Maxwell Award Watch List. Last year the Gators were the only team in FBS with two receivers averaging over 19 YPC.
• The signal caller is a critical position in Gator lore, thanks to the three Heisman statues of QBs in front of the stadium. There will be plenty of pressure and attention on Wisconsin transfer Graham Mertz, who has 34 career games under his belt where he went 19-13 in 32 starts. Mertz is the 3rd-most experienced QB in the SEC in terms of career starts (Ole Miss Spencer Sanders - 41, LSU Jaydon Daniels - 43).
• The Gators have 13 new faces from the transfer portal, including DL Caleb Banks (Louisville), EDGE Quincy Ivory (East LA CC), DL Cam Jackson (Memphis), LB Teradja Mitchell (OhioState), S R.J. Moten (Michigan), LB Mannie Nunnery (Houston) and Deuce Spurlock II (Michigan).
• Over 70% of the roster is composed of freshmen and sophomores.

Editor’s Pick:
Logic says the Utes will win 32-24, but I will venture out my comfort zone and predict a 27-24 upset by the Gators behind a strong rushing attack from TNT (Trelle n’ Tienne). Mertz will have an okay game, which is really all we need from him if the running game is working and if Ricky Pearsall and a rookie receiver can get the ball moving in the air. On defense I think the Gators will show marked improvement in a similar defense from last year, but with more disciplined play.

 

[Escambia94]

I saw that another source interviewed several Gator alumni and asked for their score predictions. Here are a few of those predictions:
- Anthony Richardson 24-17
- Major Wright 14-10
- Ahmad Black 28-21
- Mike Pouncey 28-24 (he will be at the game)
- Ryan Stamper 21-20
- Chris Doering 27-21 (watch him on the SEC Network)
- Ben Troupe 28-21
- Jarvis Moss 27-24
- Matt Elam 28-17
- O'Cyrus Torrence 28-21
- Gervon Dexter 35-14
- Frankie Hammond 24-17

 

[DRU2012]

I'm assuming all those Gator-alumni predicted scores are for Gator wins...
Me , I'm frankly all over the place on this one:
WE have progressed and ought to be ready for this one as well...and the Utes have their injury issues, which ought to at least offset most of the "on-the-road-at-altitude" obstacles that face our guys tonight.
We are about to find out a lot about this team and program's real growth and supposed "wholesale change-in-culture". If we truly play them even up, tough on Defense and efficient on offense it should be close, with a chance for us to take it at the end.
We're still a season or two away from true "relevance" (outside of G-Nation) again, I fear.
But I guess I need at least some signs that we are truly on that path over the coming dozen or so weeks...and hopefully that begins tonight.

 

[Leakfan12]

I think the Gators will have a better chance with Cam Rising not playing but how good is the other guy?

 

[DRU2012]

This young Utah speedster QB Johnson worries me.
And Ettienne gets buried on the kickoff, so we start deep.

 

[DRU2012]

Penalties again screw us.
Drive killer.

 

[DRU2012]

Noise is getting to us.
Does not look good. We had a chance at 2nd and 2, then 3rd and 1...then blew it.
Oh oh, friends. This one is already headed South for us. Damn. Don't think I can watch much of this.

 

[DRU2012]

Um, that sure looked like targeting to me by that guy hitting Mertz.

 

[DRU2012]

We look like shit. I will shut up now.

 

[DRU2012]

Last comment: We will probably wake up at some point here--we just might well be down a bunch by that point.
What a putrid start. I guess all the pregame stuff, the unexpected extra traveling, the weather back home etc etc must have messed with their heads...but STILL. LOSING this one wouldn't have been so bad a thing--but clearly being unreadable and coming out here to just flounder in every phase of the game, right from the start--THAT makes me wonder about this team, its supposed "progress abd growth", it's "culture change"...ALL that talk we've been hearing from the Coach and "people close to the program".
I don't wanna HEAR it anymore. If this game and team doesn't somehow get totally turned around by the time it's over, it may soon sew the seeds of the kind of widespread discontent that COULD sink this ship before if even gets up to speed.

 

[DRU2012]

Only hope is for our Defense to step up, get a big turnover soon. Considering how this thing started, how we fell so far behind the proverbial "8-ball" from the opening kickoff (AND with them getting the ball to start the 2nd half), we absolutely NEED a turnover and a score to somehow get the lead before the half.
Except for that opening play, the D has for the most part held its own here. We need something MORE from that unit though: INSPIRATION.
Otherwise, one way or the other, quick or slow we go down today.

 

[Escambia94]

I waited 220 days for this? The Utah offense looks a lot like the old Gator offense when the Utes put in their dual threat QB. The Gator defense needs to settle down.

 

[DRU2012]

Looks like it's gonna be "quick death" after all.
I can't watch this. Mertz isn't the guy. And I'm seeing regression, not "progress" OR "growth".
As things seem headed, I just am not interested in hearing anymore of Billy's "calm pearls of upbeat wisdom". Not in THIS context.
This is looking like the OPPOSOTE of everything we've been hearing since he got here--especially this past off season.
I can't see it changing dramatically in weeks ahead--not once we hit our SEC schedule.
And that will NOT help our recruiting outlook.
Since that is where our soul hopes lie, there's a big pit growing in my sinking stomach, folks.
Sigh...The sound of hope dying.

 

[Escambia94]

Yeah. I cannot point out a single thing that the Gators are good at.

 

[Escambia94]

Creative stupidity. That is how I would describe this team. Billy Napier must be confused about how timeouts work.

 

[Escambia94]

There is nothing to analyze here at halftime. The Gators are now the Vanderbilt of the SEC.

 

[DRU2012]

(AND no use joining the inevitable cry coming for Billy's head, either--That just keeps us sinking deeper, another big setback in the SERIES OF THEM that have landed us down here in the SEC cellar again (almost FIFTY YEARS since we were last THIS far down). I mean, I guess we just have to see this through for now, let it all play out and see if he can eventually build a proper program here...But I gotta tell y'all now: I just am not feeling it here. It isn't just the losing--it is the "losers' performance and attitude", right out of the gate, that is so disappointing.
I just don't know WHAT to think of it all now...
Who we are, where we are headed.
Unless there is someone REALLY special, some former-Gator, a younger "second-coming of Steve Spurrier" somehow arriving on the scene to save us THIS time, I guess we just gotta stick with Coach Billy. Let it ride. I am so depressed.)

 

[DRU2012]

There is nothing to analyze here at halftime. The Gators are now the Vanderbilt of the SEC.

Yes! I was thinking the exact same thing--except we don't have as good a basketball team.

 

[Escambia94]

I am not listening to any assholes asking for Napier to be fired. The Gators do not suck because of Napier—they suck because Urban Meyer quit on the job in December 2009 and Muschamp, McElwain, and Mullen took the easy route to winning just enough without fixing the problems.

 

[Escambia94]

Grades: F all around. Some flashes of goodness buried among piles of creative stupidity.