Official Game Thread, Week 10: #13 Florida Gators 17, Missouri 38 (HC), November 3, 2018

[Escambia94]

November 3, 2018. 4:00 P.M. ET.
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field. 32601.
SECN TV. WatchESPN Video. DirecTV 611. Cox 69. Cox 1069 HD.
SECN Crew: Tom Hart, Jordan Rodgers, Cole Cubelic.
Gator Radio IMG Sports Network. Sirius 98. XM 191.
TuneIn: WRUF
“Homecoming in The Swamp.”
Line: Florida 6 (58) over Missouri
[TWEET]https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1057663527056539649
[/TWEET]

#13 Florida Gators (6-2, 4-2) hosts the Missouri Tigers (4-4, 0-4) at Steve-Spurrier-Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. The Other Tigers are coming off a 14-15 loss to the surprising Kentucky Wildcats. The Gators are coming off a 17-36 loss to the hated Georgia Leghumpers.

Last 7 meetings:

• 11/4/17 Columbia, MO Mizz 45 Fla 16
• 10/15/16 Gainesville, FL Mizz 14 Fla 40
• 10/10/15 Columbia, MO Mizz 3 Fla 21
• 10/18/14 Gainesville, FL Mizz 42 Fla 13
• 10/19/13 Columbia, MO Mizz 36 Fla 17
• 11/3/12 Gainesville, FL Mizz 7 Fla 14
• 1/1/66 New Orleans, LA Mizz 20 Fla 18 Sugar Bowl

Missouri's offense ranks #21 coming into this match up (Florida's offense is ranked #79) averaging 470 yards per game (284 Passing & 186 Rushing). Missouri's defense ranks #84 coming into this match up (Florida's defense is ranked #28) averaging 415 yards per game (288 Passing & 127 Rushing).

Passing TD leaders in the SEC

1. Tua Tagovailoa, ALA: 25 TD | 0 INT
2. Jordan Ta'amu, MISS: 16 TD | 5 INT
3. Drew Lock, MIZZ: 16 TD | 6 INT
4. Feleipe Franks, UF: 15 TD | 5 INT
5. Jake Fromm, UGA: 13 TD | 4 INT

Missouri's pass defense is atrocious, so if Feleipe Franks cannot move the ball against the Other Tigers, then there is no hope. Florida's rushing attack needs to get going, because only Georgia and Alabama have had success against this Missouri front. Todd Grantham will want to force SEC's #2 passer into making mistakes by pressuring Lock and forcing him to make mistakes throwing at the Gator's talented secondary. Missouri rushed for 458 yards (5.5 YPC) and 7 TDs even with a struggling passing game, so it is very important that the Gator defense to make tackles on the initial contact, in the middle (against the rush) and on the edge (against the WR / HB screens) and not allow a lot of yards after contact. Here are the last 4 games for Missouri's rushing defense, not including Alabama:

• Georgia: 5.36 YPC on 30 carries
• USCe: 2.88 YPC on 36 carries
• Memphis: 5.59 YPC on 34 carries
• Kentucky: 2.62 YPC on 34 carries

With the Other Tigers being hard to run against, it will come down to Feleipe Franks' right arm to win this game. Missouri usually wins games where they win the turnover battle, so the Gators cannot repeat the turnover mistakes from last week. If the Gators can craft a good passing game with no more than one interception and no fumbles, they will win 21-17. If the Gators get sloppy, expect this to look like Missouri's game against Georgia, but with Missouri hanging 40+ points on the good guys.

 

[DRU2012]

Been looking forward to your analysis of this one, E--...
God knows I couldn't depend on "the experts" and their drivel at CFB Live and the like--Couldn't stand even watching/listening to them: For every Herbstreet and/or Palmer there are just way too many hicks, shills, apologists and ignorant homers there; Late week, when I finally turned to the usually steady (if overly patient with moronic loudmouth callers-in) Finebaum's show, it turned out he had that phony fill-in host there in his place this week, apparently "fair and reasonable" but REALLY a total LSU homer, HE in turn brought in "guest experts" like those jackass fools "Marty and McGee" to studiously continue to IGNORE their loss to US, and instead go on at length at how and why they'll "beat 'Bama" this weekend, and so on...Now, I TOO happen to think that there are at least a half DOZEN SEC teams that are equal (or at least close) to the "rest of the best" (or is that "the best of the rest"?--That these are interchangeable is a big part of "the Problem" for that "committee" deciding the FFF's final make-up) out there, but politics, image, history and "showbiz" (whose current popular "hot button" term is "the Eyetest") will inevitably be the deciding factors in this process for the foreseeable--or (for eg) UCF wouldn't even be in the top 20, wouldn't even be the most highly-rated among the non-major conference-members on the LIST of those considered: Until last night (played Temple), they hadn't even played ONE TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD yet (and only BARELY outscored them in a wild shootout, where the Owls as much as anything BEAT THEMSELVES by screwing up TWO 4th quarter drives into the UCF redzone, coming away from those with NO POINTS--before finally scoring, trading TDs and still "coming CLOSE" to beating them late).
So, on to THIS one, OUR game:
This now remains the game that will show where we're at, where we're headed (and how far) THIS YEAR.
To me, it already had the feeling of being "winnable"...Now, for the most part, we have a clearer picture of HOW... Still, the fact that it DOES appear to once again come down to how much our QB can accomplish, whether he can make enough of the throws our Head Coach's no doubt "realistic but shrewd" gameplan will require of him, DEPEND upon him to recognize and make at key moments, to, if not outright WIN the game, at least help to make the difference between eking out a close one (the relative health of Grantham's DEFENSE will more likely ensure that--or not) or smacking them upside the head early and MAYBE force them to play "wild catchup", and hence expose them to a preponderance of those anticipated "mistakes" you mention the rest of the way. But all in all, I do like our chances there in the Swamp tomorrow.

 

[Escambia94]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1058169320042360832
[/TWEET]

The Gators are going with the more traditional JumpMan uniform.

 

[Escambia94]

On paper the Gators should win this game rather handily based on sheer talent and better coaching. The numbers below show the talent evaluation from the player scouting profile. Ratings above 0.99 equals 5*, above 0.90 equals 4*, and above 0.85 equals 3*.

QB Feleipe Franks SO 0.973    | QB Drew Lock SR 0.955
RB Jordan Scarlett JR 0.946   | RB Larry Rountree SO 0.800
WR-X Van Jefferson JR 0.952   | SLOT J. Johnson JR 0.862
WR-Y Tyree Cleveland JR 0.981 | WR R. Floyd JR 0.842
WR-Z Josh Hammond JR 0.929    | WR E. Hall 0.850
TE C'yontai Lewis SR 0.846    | TE A. Okwuegbunu SO 0.861
LT Martez Ivey SR 0.999       | LT  Y. Durant JR 0.822
LG Tyler Jordan SR 0.882      | LG K. Pendleton SR 0.833
C Nick Buchanan JR 0.827      | C T. Colon-Castin 0.845
RG Fred Johnson SR 0.833      | RG T. Wallace JR 0.845
RT Jawaan Taylor JR 0.845     | RT P. Adama SR 0.849
DE Jabari Zuniga JR 0.860     | DE T. Willians SO 0.867
NT Elijah Conliffe SO 0.894   | DT T. Beckner SR 0.858
DT Tedarrell Slaton SO 0.968  | NT W. Palmore SR 0.858
BUCK Jachai Polite JR 0.854   | DE C. Turner SO 0.836
STAR C. Gardner-Johnson 0.977 | WLB T. Hall SR 0.864
MLB David Reese JR 0.879      | MLB C. Garrett JR 0.807
MLB Vosean Joseph SLB 0.859   | SLB B. Lee SR 0.900
LCB CJ Henderson SO 0.938     | LCB D. Acy JR 0.847
SS Brad Stewart SO 0.935      | SS C. Hilton SR 0.857
FS Donovan Stiner SO 0.853    | FS T. Gillespie SO 0.809
RCB Trey Dean III FR 0.922    | RCB C. Holmes SO 0.811

At most positions the Gators are more talented, and are about equal in experience. The Gators are slightly less talented at TE and at RCB if you account for Dean being a freshman.

The team talent level breaks out as follows:

      ***Florida***|***Missouri***
TOT 0.907          | 0.849
OFF 0.910          | 0.851
DEF 0.904          | 0.847
************************************
QB/RB 0.960        | 0.878
WR 0.954           | 0.851
DB 0.925           | 0.831
OL 0.877           | 0.839
DL 0.894           | 0.855
DL/LB 0.886        | 0.856

 

[DRU2012]

[TWEET]https://twitter.com/GatorsFB/status/1058169320042360832
[/TWEET]

The Gators are going with the more traditional JumpMan uniform.

I LIKE these! All Gator "Royal" blue is still my fave, but these are NICE.

 

[DRU2012]

On paper the Gators should win this game rather handily based on sheer talent and better coaching. The numbers below show the talent evaluation from the player scouting profile. Ratings above 0.99 equals 5*, above 0.90 equals 4*, and above 0.85 equals 3*.

QB Feleipe Franks SO 0.973    | QB Drew Lock SR 0.955
RB Jordan Scarlett JR 0.946   | RB Larry Rountree SO 0.800
WR-X Van Jefferson JR 0.952   | SLOT J. Johnson JR 0.862
WR-Y Tyree Cleveland JR 0.981 | WR R. Floyd JR 0.842
WR-Z Josh Hammond JR 0.929    | WR E. Hall 0.850
TE C'yontai Lewis SR 0.846    | TE A. Okwuegbunu SO 0.861
LT Martez Ivey SR 0.999       | LT  Y. Durant JR 0.822
LG Tyler Jordan SR 0.882      | LG K. Pendleton SR 0.833
C Nick Buchanan JR 0.827      | C T. Colon-Castin 0.845
RG Fred Johnson SR 0.833      | RG T. Wallace JR 0.845
RT Jawaan Taylor JR 0.845     | RT P. Adama SR 0.849
DE Jabari Zuniga JR 0.860     | DE T. Willians SO 0.867
NT Elijah Conliffe SO 0.894   | DT T. Beckner SR 0.858
DT Tedarrell Slaton SO 0.968  | NT W. Palmore SR 0.858
BUCK Jachai Polite JR 0.854   | DE C. Turner SO 0.836
STAR C. Gardner-Johnson 0.977 | WLB T. Hall SR 0.864
MLB David Reese JR 0.879      | MLB C. Garrett JR 0.807
MLB Vosean Joseph SLB 0.859   | SLB B. Lee SR 0.900
LCB CJ Henderson SO 0.938     | LCB D. Acy JR 0.847
SS Brad Stewart SO 0.935      | SS C. Hilton SR 0.857
FS Donovan Stiner SO 0.853    | FS T. Gillespie SO 0.809
RCB Trey Dean III FR 0.922    | RCB C. Holmes SO 0.811

At most positions the Gators are more talented, and are about equal in experience. The Gators are slightly less talented at TE and at RCB if you account for Dean being a freshman.

The team talent level breaks out as follows:

      ***Florida***|***Missouri***
TOT 0.907         | 0.849
OFF 0.910          | 0.851
DEF 0.904           | 0.847
************************************
QB/RB 0.960     | 0.878
WR 0.954          | 0.851
DB 0.925           | 0.831
OL 0.877           | 0.839
DL 0.894           | 0.855
DL/LB 0.886     | 0.856

If you get a chance, watch this week's "Gator Country" podcast: Not that I care much about their "just another coupla guys trading betting tips" approach that comprises a good deal of their thing, as usual (I mean, it's entertaining, agree with some, dismiss a whole bunch more--BUT, they ALSO DO go into a lot of the stuff I have neither the time nor energy right now to wrestle with here myself, along the way collect and recount a lot of the bits'n'pieces that are "floating in the ether"out there, and lay out the foundation from which a REAL discussion about all that might emerge--most of all at least a "skimming, wide-ranging overview" of the whole Gator QB situation--Now AND into the spring, summer and NEXT season...including the rumors, realistic options--and whether worrying about Emory Jones' redshirt, the new rules governing all that, and whether it is even truly worth worrying about when you stop and realistically consider the various ways things likely could go, one way or another.
What am I saying? Check out the podcast, then we can begin to sort things out as far as our future at quarterback, even begin to HELP ourselves in that regard, now and later. ORRRR....maybe not.
Gut feeling/hope/intuitive leap...
Franks looks good, defense and special teams get back to "takeaways'n'makin' plays": GATORS ROLL.

 

[DRU2012]

Tomorrow belongs to US, OUR game vs Mizzou, and though admittedly interested in outcomes elsewhere, won't turn my attention to (least of all comment on) ANY of the other ones until we come through OUR trial--and anything but victory will likely leave me angry, disappointed and depressed to the point of (albeit temporary) unsociability.
Understand: If you didn't realize it already, I am NO KIND of Alabama fan. Nor do I even LIKE their Coach (though I do respect his skills and thorough proficiency in every category of running that program; I just dislike and deeply distrust the resulting package, overall).
So I wanted to say this, but get it in tonight and then be done with it for now...
For a lotta complex reasons here that even I don't really completely understand MYSELF, I have come to REALLY wanna see LSU stomped into the stinky sticky bayou ground of Red Stick tomorrow night. I can think of a whole LOT of conscious reasons why, if I bother to think about it--but now that I DO have the time and reason to think about it, I HAVE ZERO REASON OR INCLINATION TO DO SO!
F*ck 'em: "Geaux git yer loudmouthed, overrated selves PUMMELED, Tigers!"
OK. That felt good.
Now: On to Homecoming...
"Eat 'em UP, Gators!"

 

[DRU2012]

Next morn'--GAMEDAY--and here I've tuned in College Gameday at 8am Central and of course, shoulda seen it coming: They are in Baton Rouge: All they wanna talk about is that game and the "Travesty of it ALL"--on and on and on from one guy to the next whinin' what the crowd there wants to hear...Their first guest is even JAMES friggin' CARVILLE, fer cryin' out loud, mastermind of Bill Clinton's Presidential run, etc, AND well-known LSU grad/Extreme Fan--wherein he proceeds to spin a classic college fan's deliriously paranoid tale of conspiracy supposedly leading to their losing their "No. 1 defender" for the first half of "THE BIGGEST COLLEGE FOOTBALL GAME EVER PLAYED" blah blah blah blah blah
...Now their gravel voiced coach is muttering something or other (How can you tell? What does it really matter?)--I mean, EVERY DAMN SHOW AND EVERY DAMN TALKING HEAD has been trying EVERYTHING POSSIBLE to somehow convince us that "anyone could win this one"--and they are STILL AT IT HERE, morning of the actual game.
I promised to move on, IGNORE discussion of ANYTHING but our own clash until THAT was settled this aft--and except for this wary and exasperated complaint, I intend to stick with that. But DAMN, folks: It sounds/looks/SCREAMS that they were SEARCHING for an excuse outside the relative strengths of the two teams BEFORE the game is even played: THEY EXPECT TO LOSE!
...Which isn't any KIND of "surprise" when it comes to the media, who are trying to maximize both audience AND continued controversy feeding it; but the LSU folks, fans, and I suspect to at least SOME extent now team as well, at some basic level do not THEMSELVES believe they are anything more than "the latest longshot underdogs facing an unbeatable foe". The only arrow left in their quivering quiver is the vaunted "Death Valley Night Game-Factor". I'm not even gonna bother discussing it. (...and lets face it--if we don't win OUR game I almost certainly won't watch "that other one" later...)
No, I am DONE for now: Back to my original, determined promise...Have already switched away from following Football Saturday and have Riddick movies (on one of the movie channels) running in background instead.
See/TALK to y'all in a few hours. I leave it to each of you to consider and settle on everything that is at stake and/or "still on the table for our taking" out there today, and beyond. But it's the proverbial "game-by-game" from here--and it starts today.

 

[DRU2012]

Sigh...Life in the SEC.
Again: NOT gonna get into other games, but I HAVE been watching some of the SEC games and can't help but notice/be reminded of how things can quickly swing one way or another in our league--then change again late. And woe be to you if you are the visiting team, control the game for 50+ minutes but let the play, and as a result the home crowd get control at the end--'cause you'll damn well let the GAME get away from you as well. Only real solution is this simple truth: DON'T LET UP. Never mind the scoreboard; leave NO points unscored.
Sounds obvious, but somehow appears to escape even highly regarded coaches. Like Jimbo Fisher, today--who made poor choices and terrible calls throughout the last 10 minutes of his team's game today.
But there have been other such failures (albeit fewer and less egregious) around the conference already today.
All in all, I will be satisfied with ANY relatively well-called, little-penalized, even eked OUT win by US today.

 

[DRU2012]

Aw hell. Am getting that nervy uptight grip in my guts again after all now that kickoff approaches... I had come to feel pretty calm about this one last few days--THOUGHT I might actually manage CONFIDENCE this time: But apparently not. Something inside has come to the fore...Either fears that I am victim of the media's continued relatively high ratings of our progress, or maybe these very repeated demonstrations of a seeming winning performance amounting to naught, letting it all slip away late.
It is the very thing I dread most--when arrogance and inexperience result in frustration and disappointment.
We SHOULD win this one. Our defense, even thin as it is, if "who's left" remains healthy today we ought to shut them down. Our Head Coach will put our limited QB in position to adequetly succeed on offense today. Not exactly a ringing endorsement--but a realistic one that gives us a pretty good shot here, theoretically.
It'll take a full game--but it would be a good idea to try for a "quick start": Shut THEM down (we won toss, deferred), then go get the lead early.
Go Gators!

 

[Escambia94]

That's using your head, Trey Dean!

 

[DRU2012]

Strong, swirling wind out there today, looks like (right aweb?).
Between that first down they managed, the wind and the bounce (which they got because it got blown AWAY from the returner as well as further downfield), it flipped the field. Pasding's gonna be all the harder for the already-challenged Franks.

 

[DRU2012]

Flag? Pass interference gets the job that Fillipe COULDN'T get done. Strong arm--but as for where it's going...
GET THE TIGHT END INVOLVED!

 

[DRU2012]

THERE. One of the few throws he CAN make, given time to throw.

 

[DRU2012]

Oof. They are leading with the passing game--but so far only the one "look good".
And we punt.
Geez--we better have some "alternate plane". But our Coach IS adept at flexibly changing it up ingame.
Lets face it, though: Right this moment it rests on the shoulders of the DEFENSE to somehow get a takeaway if we wanna "take control early", possibly AVOID having to "pull one out late".

 

[DRU2012]

I just don't like giving Drew Locke lots of time in a close, low-scoring game.
NICE play by CJ Henderson.

 

[DRU2012]

OK: Special Teams...We look to start with a short field--pending the flag. Tiger batted ball a few yards upfield. Yes--He purposefully batted it HARD back downfield. Yes: Ram it down their THROATS. Sigh...IF ONLY WE HAD AN ACCURATE QB. The young man has ZERO "touch".
Look: We can score on the ground--throw now and then, keep 'em honest, but otherwise--Wait til you got a REAL QB, Dan. That last call cost us 4 points. That better be the last points we leave on the field today ("doink" notwithstanding), or we are likely gonna end up SICK at the final (close) score at the end later.

 

[DRU2012]

I am serious: That drive was one more in a solid series of such "lessons we should have already learned here":
Certain passes here and there are ok with this QB--but otherwise it is RUN RUN RUN unless/until there is a pressing reason otherwise.

 

[DRU2012]

Damn. This is what I meant: Keep giving him chances and Locke will begin to find his rhythm and pick you apart.

 

[DRU2012]

We better STOP THIS NOW, D...
And WHERE IS OUR CROWD???