Heading into the back half of the season, the Gators are 4-2 (2-1), but are 1-2 on the road. On the bright side the Gators have surpassed Stewart Mandel’s prediction of going 3-9, but where will the Gators end up this season? Going 6-6 again (or worse) would not quiet the noise in the system even if Napier is safe from the hot seat for a few years. Where can the Gators squeeze out a few wins?
South Carolina (2-3, 1-2) will be an away game in the Cock Pit. The Gators will have their hands full with Spencer Rattler and their aerial attack. The Gators won 38-6 last year in the Swamp in Napier’s first year. Few of the starters were on this team when the Gators lost 17-40 in Columbia in 2021, so they may be surprised by the hostile environment up there. Florida has a 42% chance of victory here according to ESPN.
The Gators play Georgia (5-0, 3-0), of course, at a neutral site where the Gators have not matched up well against Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs. Florida has an 11% chance of victory.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) is reeling after 4 consecutive losses with Alabama on the schedule. Even if they get a confidence boost by beating Mississippi State the week before, Florida should be able to handle Arkansas. The Gators have a 53% chance of victory.
LSU (4-2, 3-1) is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. One thing we know is that Florida cannot beat them on talent, and their margin of victory is always thin thanks to stupid penalties. The Gators have a 19% chance of victory in Death Valley.
Missouri (5-1,1-1) is surprisingly good this year and will likely be ranked for this matchup. The Gators have a 43% chance of victory in the other Death Valley.
FSU (5-0) will be a top-10 team when the Gators play them. ESPN gives Florida a 23% chance of victory.
The Gators only have a > 50% chance against one more team, Arkansas. Missouri and South Carolina are each > 40%. The Gators should at least split these two. Unless things change the Gators will likely end the season on at least a 3-game losing streak.
South Carolina (2-3, 1-2) will be an away game in the Cock Pit. The Gators will have their hands full with Spencer Rattler and their aerial attack. The Gators won 38-6 last year in the Swamp in Napier’s first year. Few of the starters were on this team when the Gators lost 17-40 in Columbia in 2021, so they may be surprised by the hostile environment up there. Florida has a 42% chance of victory here according to ESPN.
The Gators play Georgia (5-0, 3-0), of course, at a neutral site where the Gators have not matched up well against Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs. Florida has an 11% chance of victory.
Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) is reeling after 4 consecutive losses with Alabama on the schedule. Even if they get a confidence boost by beating Mississippi State the week before, Florida should be able to handle Arkansas. The Gators have a 53% chance of victory.
LSU (4-2, 3-1) is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. One thing we know is that Florida cannot beat them on talent, and their margin of victory is always thin thanks to stupid penalties. The Gators have a 19% chance of victory in Death Valley.
Missouri (5-1,1-1) is surprisingly good this year and will likely be ranked for this matchup. The Gators have a 43% chance of victory in the other Death Valley.
FSU (5-0) will be a top-10 team when the Gators play them. ESPN gives Florida a 23% chance of victory.
The Gators only have a > 50% chance against one more team, Arkansas. Missouri and South Carolina are each > 40%. The Gators should at least split these two. Unless things change the Gators will likely end the season on at least a 3-game losing streak.