We all know the story. The Football Championship Subdivision Appalachian State University Mountaineers upset the Football Bowl Subdivision University of Michigan Wolverines 34-32 in a game where Michigan was riding a 14-game winning streak and were 27-point favorites. They were favored so heavily, that Vegas refused to post a betting line on the game-–there was NO WAY that Appy State was going to defeat the mighty, #5 Wolverines. We all know what happened. To make matters worse, the 2007 Florida Gator football team lost to this same Michigan team in the 2008 Capital One Bowl, 41-35. If the Mountaineers can ride the momentum that got them to a 2010 Southern Conference championship and #2 FCS ranking, they can fly high and defeat this very vulnerable Gator team. On the other hand, this is the Swamp. Our losses have come against ranked FBS teams, and the Mountaineers just might have to get a TSA cavity search from a very angry Gator squad before they get on the plane back home to North Carolina.
The Gators (6-4, 4-1) are struggling this year and can only muster 29.6 points per game and are allowing 21.2 points per game. They are hosting a #2 Mountaineer (9-1, 7-1) team that averages 37 points a game and allows 20.3. The Gators admit that they need to “fill the void” and “find the energy”. The Mountaineers will look to fill the void with linebacker D.J Smith and defensive end John Rizor, both studs at tackling and fumble recovery. Look for them to contain some of that energy as Florida returns to its three-headed quarterback monster. Trivia note: the Mountaineers defeated Kerwin Bell‘s Jacksonville University--the same Kerwin Bell that coached Johnny Brantley. Another trivia note is that Brantley’s current QB coach, Scot Loeffler, coached Chad Henne through that Michigan loss to ASU in '07.
Florida can ill-afford a loss to an FCS team. Sure, it can still make it to the lowest of the bowl games with a loss, but with the very disgruntled Gator Nation fanbase, the F-L-O-R-I-D-A Gators might not stick together in all kinds of weather if the team does not win one at home for their favorite seniors C Mike Pouncey, S Ahmad Black, LB Brandon Hicks, P Chas Henry, DE Justin Trattou, DE Duke Lemmens, LB Lorenzo Edwards, and redshirt seniors LB A.J. Jones, NT Brandon Antwine, WR Carl Moore and RB Emmanuel Moooooody.
In 2004, the Mountaineers installed a spread-option offense based on you-know-who’s offense at Utah, Urban Meyer. Their version of the Urban Attack seems to have worked for them, for they won three successive Division II national titles with it. Let’s see how the two teams match up this year.
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ASU Mountaineers Florida Gators
6-2, 265 Offensive Line 6-4, 297
5-11, 191 Backfield 6-0, 208
6-0, 186 Receivers 6-0, 199
6-0, 221 Linebackers 6-2, 232
6-0, 191 Def. Backs 5-11, 189We have bigger offensive line, defensive line, and skill offensive players, and equally sized defensive backs. How do the team leaders match up statistically?
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Passing
DeAndre Presley 158/252, 2,066 YDS, 17 TD/ 4 INT
John Brantley 172/282, 1,746 YDS, 8 TD/ 7 INT
Rushing
DeAndre Presley 124 ATT, 727 YDS ,5.9 YPA, 11 TD
Jeff Demps 80 ATT, 487 YDS, 6.1 YPA, 3 TD
Receiving
Brian Quick 36 REC, 685 YDS, 19.0 YPC, 7 TD
Deonte Thompson 30 REC, 448 YDS, 14.9 YPC, 1 TD
Tackles
D.J. Smith 55 UT, 53 AT, 108 TOT, 3.0 TFL, 1.0 Sacks
Ahmad Black 63 UT, 30 AT, 93 TOT, 9.0TFL, 1.0 SacksIt’s pretty sad that our safety is the leading tackler. Some of the linebackers and defensive ends will need to step it up if we want to avoid an embarrassing loss. We all know our offensive woes, so I won't expound upon that here.
The Mighty Gators are in unchartered waters, for victory is not “certain” even against an FCS team at home in the seniors’ last home stand. This game is so uncertain that I refuse to predict the victor. The team with the most points will win this one.
Gators keys to victory:
- Take whatever we did against South Carolina, and do the opposite
- Read through the Gator Envy forum before the game and take notes
Mountaineer keys to victory:
- Blitz Brantley
- Stuff the run
- Keep doing what has been working in FCS play
Gators win, 32-31 in a nail-biter.
