2024 Gators Schedule

[Leakfan12]

• Miami Hurricanes — Aug. 31, 2024
• Samford Bulldogs — Sept. 7, 2024
• Texas A&M Aggies — Sept. 14, 2024
• @ Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sept. 21, 2024
• BYE
• UCF Knights — Oct. 5, 2024
• @ Tennessee Volunteers — Oct. 12, 2024
• Kentucky Wildcats — Oct. 19, 2024
• BYE
• Georgia Bulldogs — Nov. 2, 2024 (in Jacksonville, Fla.)
• @ Texas Longhorns — Nov. 9, 2024
• LSU Tigers — Nov. 16, 2024
• Ole Miss Rebels — Nov. 23, 2024
• @ Florida State Seminoles — Nov. 30, 2024

Any thoughts? They face off against Texas which should have happened either in 2008 and/or 2009. Also, not a big fan of the no divisions. Couldn't the SEC put the Alabama schools in the East?

 

[Escambia94]

I predict 6 wins +/- 2 for the 2024 Florida Gators.

• Samford = 95%
• UCF = 75%
• Mississippi State = 70%
• Tennessee = 55%
• Miami = 50%
• Texas A&M = 45%
• FSU = 45%
• Kentucky = 45%
• LSU = 45%
• Ole Miss = 45%
• Texas = 25%
• UGA = 15%

 

[Leakfan12]

I put Miami ahead of Tennessee though Tennessee lost the Gators last season and barely won in Knoxville the previous season. Tennessee is 50-50.

 

[Escambia94]

Next week after national signing day we can refine the percentages. I came up with those percentages assuming Florida landed a #5 recruiting class and the #15 transfer class. That would give them the talent and depth needed to win 6 games. This also assumes Napier upgrades the coaching staff.

 

[Escambia94]

Irrespective of the talent, the folks who created this schedule handicapped Florida by giving everyone else a bye or an easy opponent before playing the Gators.

Texas and Ole Miss both come off of byes while Mississippi State, Kentucky, and Florida State all have decidedly easier opponents.

• Miami Hurricanes — Aug. 31, 2024
• Samford Bulldogs — Sept. 7, 2024
• Texas A&M Aggies — Sept. 14, 2024 - previous opponent McNeese State
• @ Mississippi State Bulldogs — Sept. 21, 2024 - previous opponent Toledo
• BYE
• UCF Knights — Oct. 5, 2024 - previous opponent Sam Houston State
• @ Tennessee Volunteers — Oct. 12, 2024 - previous opponent Arkansas
• Kentucky Wildcats — Oct. 19, 2024 - previous opponent Vanderbilt
• BYE
• Georgia Bulldogs — Nov. 2, 2024 (in Jacksonville, Fla.) - coming off bye
• @ Texas Longhorns — Nov. 9, 2024 - coming off bye
• LSU Tigers — Nov. 16, 2024 - previous opponent Alabama
• Ole Miss Rebels — Nov. 23, 2024 - coming off bye
• @ Florida State Seminoles — Nov. 30, 2024 - previous opponent Charleston Southern

 

[DRU2012]

I put Miami ahead of Tennessee though Tennessee lost the Gators last season and barely won in Knoxville the previous season. Tennessee is 50-50.

Next week after national signing day we can refine the percentages. I came up with those percentages assuming Florida landed a #5 recruiting class and the #15 transfer class. That would give them the talent and depth needed to win 6 games. This also assumes Napier upgrades the coaching staff.

Personally, I cannot help but find the list (AND its accompanying percentages) pretty damn optimistic against the overall general strength of the announced schedule.
In short, it's a BEAST.
I grant that it is probably too early to pose specific ""What THEN??!" questions, so I will simply and only be among the first to posit their coming likelihood "if and when".
That "bye-before-meetimg-the-Gatirs" wrinkle only further seals our collective fate.
I simply foresee another losing season, devoid again of any bowl play, as the likeliest outcome.

 

[Escambia94]

Personally, I cannot help but find the list (AND its accompanying percentages) pretty damn optimistic against the overall general strength of the announced schedule.

To be fair those percentages are largely based on three central themes:
1. Florida will be returning core components of its strength area, the offense. At the same time, many of our opponents will be losing core components of their strength area. Only Georgia has shown a propensity to buck that trend due to their ability to sustain a three-deep bench of 5-star athletes.

2. Florida started the most true freshmen and redshirt freshmen and was #14 in total snaps by freshmen. The youth that hurt Florida in 2023 will become veteran strength in 2024.

3. Florida has managed to hold onto a top-6 recruiting class despite having a #40 Sagarin rated team. Florida is the only team with a losing record with a top-15 recruiting ranking heading into national signing day.

The knock against Florida will be its shortcomings in the transfer portal. Granted, on paper Napier did well in the portal. He did not know that the Kentucky transfer offensive tackle Kiyaunte Goodwin would leave to take care of his mother. He did not know that the best returning offensive guard, Dameion George from Alabama, would not fare well sliding over to offensive tackle to fill in for Goodwin. On defense the Gators had no excuse for missing on the portal. Then again this illustrates the importance of winning high school recruits. Only a few transfer portal athletes are good, otherwise they would not be in the portal.

 

[DRU2012]

To be fair those percentages are largely based on three central themes:
1. Florida will be returning core components of its strength area, the offense. At the same time, many of our opponents will be losing core components of their strength area. Only Georgia has shown a propensity to buck that trend due to their ability to sustain a three-deep bench of 5-star athletes.

2. Florida started the most true freshmen and redshirt freshmen and was #14 in total snaps by freshmen. The youth that hurt Florida in 2023 will become veteran strength in 2024.

3. Florida has managed to hold onto a top-6 recruiting class despite having a #40 Sagarin rated team. Florida is the only team with a losing record with a top-15 recruiting ranking heading into national signing day.

The knock against Florida will be its shortcomings in the transfer portal. Granted, on paper Napier did well in the portal. He did not know that the Kentucky transfer offensive tackle Kiyaunte Goodwin would leave to take care of his mother. He did not know that the best returning offensive guard, Dameion George from Alabama, would not fare well sliding over to offensive tackle to fill in for Goodwin. On defense the Gators had no excuse for missing on the portal. Then again this illustrates the importance of winning high school recruits. Only a few transfer portal athletes are good, otherwise they would not be in the portal.

Well, there is at least tangible "HOPE" in your response/summation here, E--.
Your points to a great.extent do build towards a coherent and logical end.
The baffling part comes at the end, of course--and it extends BEYOND just our failings on defense in the portal: That last statement has already shown itself to be patently UNTRUE:
Given our own experiences of late, we of all programs are left scratching our collective head at why these post-adolescents make the decisions they do--least of all our being able to judge what effect their talent and performance onfield will have on those decisions. I mean, we have been outright BLINDSIDED by several such decisions here just in the last week or two.
(Etienne, for example, just to START with...)

 

[Escambia94]

I will put it another way: the transfer portal is a free agency system for marketable players but is a Dollar General for everyone else.

 

[DRU2012]

I will put it another way: the transfer portal is a free agency system for marketable players but is a Dollar General for everyone else.

Lol...Well put.
The first part is college football's "sadly true".
The second "truly sad".
@Escambia94, :
Do you get the impression, as I do, that at least some of these guys delude themselves as to which category THEY fall into?

 

[Escambia94]

Do you get the impression, as I do, that at least some of these guys delude themselves as to which category THEY fall into?

Absolutely. The hidden part of Transfer Portal 2.0 is that of the 3,000 transfers only 7% successfully transferred across all sports, or 67% in FBS [reference]. That means 23% left an FBS school and did not get picked up on scholarship at the next school. That is insane. NIL is not the answer. Only 2% of all athletes make more than minimum wage on NIL. The old system was flawed, but the new system is more flawed and it is not getting reported. The NCAA data does not track the percentage of “homeless” transfers, but I suspect that it is around 15%—meaning of the 23% who leave an FBS school and fail to get picked up that about half of them just go to an FCS school or they just stop playing football on scholarship.

 

[DRU2012]

Absolutely. The hidden part of Transfer Portal 2.0 is that of the 3,000 transfers only 7% successfully transferred across all sports, or 67% in FBS [reference]. That means 23% left an FBS school and did not get picked up on scholarship at the next school. That is insane. NIL is not the answer. Only 2% of all athletes make more than minimum wage on NIL. The old system was flawed, but the new system is more flawed and it is not getting reported. The NCAA data does not track the percentage of “homeless” transfers, but I suspect that it is around 15%—meaning of the 23% who leave an FBS school and fail to get picked up that about half of them just go to an FCS school or they just stop playing football on scholarship.

That is pathetic--and while it is somewhat baffling HOW so many MISS this clear trend, the simple fact is that they ("WE"--us AND them) indeed DO. The media (for whatever reasons) fails to do much to inform them OR us--but I strongly suspect it would not make a great deal of difference if they put up signs on rooftops that spelled it out in giant blinking NEON LETTERS!!!
The "delude themselves" part would be an ongoing feature regardless.
I must admit somewhat sheepishly at my embarrassment in admitting that how much we all managed to find ways to so thoroughly make a bad situation WORSE...
We ALL thought that SOME kind of open "pay for play" was only "just", considering all the money so many were already making off of the "names, images, likenesses" of the players for GENERATIONS BEFORE formal, above-board legal/financial changes were instituted, that ANY such change would be a "change for the better".
How big a surprise should it turn out to BE how WRONG we were??!

 

[Escambia94]

As long as the system works for a few high profile athletes it is assumed that it works for everyone. None of the failed transfers is going to speak out about how bad the system is.

 

[DRU2012]

As long as the system works for a few high profile athletes it is assumed that it works for everyone. None of the failed transfers is going to speak out about how bad the system is.

Leaving us all still here in the throes of pessimism, even hopelessness!