In August I was overly optimistic and I predicted an 8-4 (5-3) season even though the data and the model suggested a 6-6 (3-5) season. Overall the season went as expected. The Gators won 50% of the games and were expected to win 51.2%. The surprises were as follows:
- Texas A&M. Florida had a 33.0% chance of winning, which was up from earlier weeks with the FPI near 28%.
- Vanderbilt. Florida had a consistent 78% to 83% chance of winning.
- Texas A&M. Florida had a 33.0% chance of winning, which was up from earlier weeks with the FPI near 28%.
- Vanderbilt. Florida had a consistent 78% to 83% chance of winning.
| Opponent | FPI | Model Prediction | Manual Prediction | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Utah Utes | 46.02% | Utah 32, Florida 30 (1-0, 0-0) | Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0) | Florida 29, #7 Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0) |
Kentucky Wildcats | 49.27% | Kentucky 27, Florida 21 (1-1, 0-1) | Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0) | #20 Kentucky 29, Florida 16 (1-1, 0-1) |
South Florida Bulls | 97.92% | Florida 45, USF 10 (2-1, 0-1) | Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0) | Florida 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1) |
@ Tennessee Volunteers | 7.81% | Tennessee 36, Florida 24 (2-2, 0-2) | Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1) | #11 Tennessee 38, Florida 33 (2-2, 0-2) |
Eastern Washington Eagles | 98.00% | Florida 48, EWU 10 (3-2, 0-2) | Florida 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1) | Florida 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2) |
Missouri Tigers | 76.69% | Florida 35, Missouri 21 (4-2, 1-2) | Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1) | Florida 24, Missouri 17 (4-2, 1-2) |
LSU Tigers | 24.26% | LSU 42, Florida 32 (4-3, 1-3) | Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1) | LSU 45, Florida 35 (4-3, 1-3) |
Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.) | 7.20% | Georgia 52, Florida 32 (4-4, 1-4) | Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2) | #1 Georgia 42, Florida 20 (4-4, 1-4) |
@ Texas A&M Aggies | 33.00% | Texas A&M 38, Florida 21 (4-5, 1-5) | Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3) | Florida 41, Texas A&M 24 (5-4, 2-4) |
South Carolina Gamecocks | 63.50% | Florida 32, South Carolina 21 (5-5, 2-5) | Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3) | Florida 38, South Carolina 6 (6-4, 3-4) |
@ Vanderbilt Commodores | 78.10% | Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (6-5, 3-5) | Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3) | Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24 (6-5, 3-5) |
@ FSU Seminoles | 32.60% | FSU 36, Florida 27 (6-6, 3-5) | Florida 21, FSU14 (8-4, 5-3) | #16 FSU 45, Florida 38 (6-6, 3-5) |
| 51.20% | | | |
