2022 Game Predictions by FPI and Win Probability

[Escambia94]

The Mighty Gators kick off the 2022 redemption tour against the 2021 Pac-12 champions Utah Utes. This will be the first year for Billy Napier as "head ball coach" (all lower-case in deference to Steve Spurrier) who is currently 40-12 (79.92%) as head coach for the Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns. Sports analysts and betting services seem to agree that the Gators will finish 7-5. These predictions seem reasonable looking at it game-by-game.

Game	Opponent	FPI	Prediction
September 3, 2022	Utah Utes	52.1%	Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0)
September 10, 2022	Kentucky Wildcats	51.1%	Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (1-1, 1-0)
September 17, 2022	South Florida Bulls	87.7%	Florida 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)
September 24, 2022	@ Tennessee Volunteers	39.8%	Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (2-2, 1-1)
October 1, 2022	Eastern Washington Eagles	96.9%	Florida 38, Eastern Washington 20 (3-2, 1-1)
October 8, 2022	Missouri Tigers	78.3%	Florida 34, Missouri 23 (4-2, 2-1)
October 15, 2022	LSU Tigers	44.7%	Florida 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)
October 22, 2022	BYE
October 29, 2022	Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)	9.6%	Georgia 32, Florida 17 (5-3, 3-2)
November 5, 2022	@ Texas A&M Aggies	29.7%	Texas A&M 38, Florida 24,(5-4, 3-3)
November 12, 2022	South Carolina Gamecocks	69.9%	Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)
November 19, 2022	@ Vanderbilt Commodores	86.8%	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)
November 25, 2022	@ FSU Seminoles	43.3%	Florida 21, Florida State 14 (8-4, 5-3)

These predictions are based solely on the FPI and raw victory probability. Based on probabilities alone the Gators should end up 7-5. I have them finishing at 8-4 with an upset over LSU. I could see the Gators beating Tennessee and losing to LSU instead, but my gut tells me that the Gators do not lose both of those games despite the odds being stacked against them at 39.8% and 44.7% against Tennessee and LSU respectively.

Vegas betting services set the over/under at 6.5 games (-160/+130) and a +5000 to win the SEC. With 6.5 wins that would put the Gators in the middle of the conference again and barely above their 2021 win totals. If the Gators exceed expectations, then we can start talking about bowl predictions:
- 6. Fiesta CFP - Georgia vs Ohio St
- 8. Peach CFP (formerly Chick-fil-A) - Alabama vs Oklahoma
- 4. Sugar - Texas A&M vs Baylor
- 10. ReliaQuest (formerly Outback) - Florida vs Wisconsin
- 13. Liberty - Mississippi vs Kansas State
- 14. Citrus - Tennessee vs Penn State
- 15. Gator - Arkansas vs Miami
- 18. Music City - Kentucky vs Michigan State
- 19. Las Vegas (formerly Maaco) - LSU vs Washington
- 26. Texas - Mississippi State vs Iowa State
- 34. Birmingham (formerly Compass) - South Carolina vs Maryland

If you are betting on the Gators there is a lot of uncertainty with a first-year coach leading a team coming off a losing season. Taking the under might be a safer bet for a team expected to go 6-6/7-5. If you are rooting for the Gators there is a swirl of optimism based on Napier's business-like approach to rebuilding a program that has been languishing since the Urban Meyer era. I predict the Gators will finish 8-4 with an upset victory over either Tennessee or LSU. Go Gators!

 

[Leakfan12]

I'm going Bullish and go with 10 wins.

 

[Escambia94]

I'm going Bullish and go with 10 wins.

I like the way you think! Just based on FPI, the Gators could pull off a surprise win against Utah. Tennessee might be overrated. That could be two wins that I did not account for.

 

[DRU2012]

I'm going Bullish and go with 10 wins.

I like the way you think! Just based on FPI, the Gators could pull off a surprise win against Utah. Tennessee might be overrated. That could be two wins that I did not account for.

Yeah, I'm with BOTH of you-- @Escambia94, from a "realistic", step-back-as-fan after recent (AND NOT-so-recent!) history, and of course @Leakfan12, from a purely Gator-centric, "here-comes-the-SEASON" and we ALL long for evidence that "THE FUTURE IS HERE!!!" P.O.V.
No matter WHAT, I ask that G-Nation show patience, look for the positive and encouraging signs no matter what. There were so many frayed ends by last year that this was looking like a serious "retrench and reBUILD" project no matter what. I believe we've ALREADY turned a corner, "righted the ship", got things going and further under way than I personally anticipated.
There WILL be disappointments and setbacks--this is major CFB, after all, and we are in the toughest league by far.

 

[DRU2012]

(PS: If we beat Utah in Game 1, look out--all bets are OFF!

 

[Escambia94]

(PS: If we beat Utah in Game 1, look out--all bets are OFF!

I have heard two different sets of Gator analysts say that if Florida beats Utah that it could alter the math they used to predict 7-8 wins. I would agree. Beating a top-10 Utah with disciplined play with a sprinkle or explosive plays means this team can win 10 games.

 

[DRU2012]

I have heard two different sets of Gator analysts say that if Florida beats Utah that it could alter the math they used to predict 7-8 wins. I would agree. Beating a top-10 Utah with disciplined play with a sprinkle or explosive plays means this team can win 10 games.

Agreed.
For the moment (this being Saturday Aug 27, so-called "Week 0" of the nascent 2022 CFB season at just after 1:00pm), I am still feeling anxious, slightly bewildered and in no small degree isolated--to a large extent still "disconnected" from personal emotional involvement with our team and its chances in the season ahead.
So much of what our hopes, dreams and chances, immediate AND long term, are going to be rest on what happens in the first few games.
For the moment, more than anything, I fell it is best to lower expectations and raise the level of patience and optimism with regard to Billy Napier and the work of his staff, approach and TEAM, as it comes fully together to form what looks to be a rebuilt and RE-ENERGIZED version of the Florida Gator football team.
Whether this will be the uneven, "up-and-down", .500-or-slightly better season most anticipate, or something unexpectedly, excitingly more will depend on these next few crucial outcomes.
Either way, I counsel and support an even-tempered, patiently-supportive (less-reactionary than is so often our fans' general approach of late) view of results here for now.
Let's give Napier, his staff, the team and program they are building and working into shape the time and room to show us at least the foundation of what they have in mind and are capable of.
I have a feeling that will take more than just one off-season to accomplish, after all.

 

[Escambia94]

Right now the team is built like Muschamp’s teams—decent amount of talent to go 10-2, but with lack of depth that could make it 7-5. The difference being that other than Vanderbilt, the floor on the entire SEC East has been raised compared to the division 10 or so years ago.

 

[Leakfan12]

Yeah, I'm with BOTH of you-- @Escambia94, from a "realistic", step-back-as-fan after recent (AND NOT-so-recent!) history, and of course @Leakfan12, from a purely Gator-centric, "here-comes-the-SEASON" and we ALL long for evidence that "THE FUTURE IS HERE!!!" P.O.V.
No matter WHAT, I ask that G-Nation show patience, look for the positive and encouraging signs no matter what. There were so many frayed ends by last year that this was looking like a serious "retrench and reBUILD" project no matter what. I believe we've ALREADY turned a corner, "righted the ship", got things going and further under way than I personally anticipated.
There WILL be disappointments and setbacks--this is major CFB, after all, and we are in the toughest league by far.

I don't know if I go Gator-centric because I did pick them to lose two games. The only team I fear from the Pac-12 is Oregon and Tennessee went 7-6. It mostly depends on the arm and legs of Richardson.

 

[DRU2012]

I don't know if I go Gator-centric because I did pick them to lose two games. The only team I fear from the Pac-12 is Oregon and Tennessee went 7-6. It mostly depends on the arm and legs of Richardson.

You got THAT right, bra'...
It really DOES "depend on Richardson" THIS year.
We know he has the mad skills; the question for me is his health. Will he get the protection he needs? His staying injury-free AND getting chances to apply his unique onfield spontaneous creativity may well depend on that--not to mention whether Napier's penchant for a strong running attack. We also at least appear to have e some creative "free spirits", ones with contrasting strengths, in line to show those off as well.
I just don't know WHAT we'll have ready to go this early, as the season opens. If we stay healthy, we'll get stronger as the season goes on. BUT these first 2 or 3 are a bit of a crap-shoot from a fan's P.O.V.
I WANT to be ready to be patient--able to take the possible ups and downs of an early "bumpy road" in stride. Some of us may have to be "voices of reason" if things repeatedly "don't break our way" in September.
I feel good about where we are headed.
I just don't know WHAT to think or feel about where we are AT.

 

[Escambia94]

The updated FPI shifted the expected results for Utah and LSU and changed the expected outcome of the season slightly.

Game	Opponent	FPI | update	Prediction | Actual
September 3, 2022	#7 Utah Utes	52.1% | 59.1%	Utah 24, Florida 21 (0-1, 0-0) | Florida 29, Utah 26 (1-0, 0-0)
September 10, 2022	Kentucky Wildcats	51.1% | 50.9%	Florida 31, Kentucky 27 (2-0, 1-0)
September 17, 2022	South Florida Bulls	87.7% | 94.8%	Florida 42, USF 10 (3-0, 1-0)
September 24, 2022	@ Tennessee Volunteers	39.8% | 29.4%	Tennessee 30, Florida 24 (3-1, 1-1) (UPSET)
October 1, 2022	Eastern Washington Eagles	96.9% | 94.0%	Florida 38, Eastern Washington 20 (4-1, 1-1)
October 8, 2022	Missouri Tigers	78.3% | 70.0%	Florida 34, Missouri 23 (5-1, 2-1)
October 15, 2022	LSU Tigers	44.7% | 64.0%	Florida 36, LSU 24 (6-1, 3-1)
October 22, 2022	BYE
October 29, 2022	Georgia Bulldogs (Jacksonville, Fla.)	9.6% | 12.3%	Georgia 32, Florida 17 (6-2 3-2)
November 5, 2022	@ Texas A&M Aggies	29.7% | 25.3%	Texas A&M 38, Florida 24 (6-3, 3-3)
November 12, 2022	South Carolina Gamecocks	69.9% | 62.9%	Florida 30, South Carolina 27 (6-4, 4-3)
November 19, 2022	@ Vanderbilt Commodores	86.8% | 87.9%	Florida 38, Vanderbilt 21 (7-4, 5-3)
November 25, 2022	@ FSU Seminoles	43.3% | 53.5%	Florida 21, Florida State 14 (8-4, 5-3)

Based on probabilities alone the Gators should end up 7-5, but I am calling for 9-3 with another possible upset over Texas A&M.

 

[DRU2012]

Hmm. I still feel I don't have enough "eyeball data" to make any solid prediction about our ultimate record this season...
You yourself have so many of these games so CLOSE, E--...Some of these Gator "WINS" that could have us eventually hit that higher number ("9-and-3"!) by regular season's END could just as easily go the other way (as you concede with both your original projection--"7-5"--AND as exemplified in that particular pick against us vs. Tennessee. It all strikes me as a bit arbitrary for your usual logic and statistic-based analysis, my friend.
NOT that I am able to do any BETTER!
In point of fact, according to everything I think I saw and learned about OUR team thus far and the current projected state of the competition, not so surprisingly we STILL have similar weaknesses on Defense--particularly with respect to penalties (though possibly a LITTLE improvement even there) and TACKLING.
We DID get the lead back with less than a minute and a half left on the clock--but then we let an albeit STRONG running team with plenty of times out (plus at least ONE EXTRA gifted them by the refs!) to smoothly drive the field following the ensuing kickoff. Only Birney's (sp?) endzone INT saved the day. Exciting as that was, it ISN'T how we should have won this one--We'll TAKE it, but WE'VE GOTTA DO BETTER, going forward from here; a more "complete game", start to finish, is what our Coaches (and all of US!) are looking for).
Who knows? That kind of play and win in The Swamp in Game 1 may be exactly the kind of overall experience that sends us "ONWARD AND UPWARD" into a STRING of close wins, as we steadily grow and gain ever more confidence in ourselves and each other.
But make no mistake: We do NOT wanna be relying on luck and "breaks" alone. There is much in the way of work, growth and uphill battles to be faced and conquered before we'll be the kind of team that we aim to become: A confident winner, competing for Championships.
For the moment, that means working hard, going out there each week after preparing to face the next set of challenges each opponent presents to us.

 

[Escambia94]

I like the ugly win. That is the best way to learn and improve from week to week. As the weeks go on, the FPI algorithm will update with new information. Just as we learned more about Florida in a top-10 matchup, we are going to learn a lot more about our SEC rivals as they face ranked opponents.
- #3 Georgia is the real deal. They took on a top-15 opponent (#11 Oregon) and embarrassed them on a national, quasi-neutral stage.
- #20 Kentucky did not look like a scary top-20 Power-5 team in their 37-13 win over Miami (OH). Their FPI will be tested by #12 Florida this week, #22 Ole Miss on 10/1, NR South Carolina on 10/8, #24 Tennessee on 10/39, and #2 Georgia on 11/19. More importantly, Florida will get a live test of the FPI jump to #12 and AP poll boost from unranked to #12.
- NR Tennessee looked pretty good in their tuneup against Ball State. They will likely be ranked around #20 by the time they face Florida on 9/24. A victory over Tennessee would help Florida's FPI and AP Poll ranking.
- #7 Texas A&M's lackluster victory over Sam Houston State could be attributed to the weather. They will probably ranked around #5 by the time they face Florida, assuming they do well against #15 Miami, #16 Arkansas, #1 Alabama, NR South Carolina, and #22 Ole Miss.

Beating those teams or looking good in a close loss to two of them will show us a lot about the Gators by November.

 

[DRU2012]

I like the ugly win. That is the best way to learn and improve from week to week. As the weeks go on, the FPI algorithm will update with new information. Just as we learned more about Florida in a top-10 matchup, we are going to learn a lot more about our SEC rivals as they face ranked opponents.
- #3 Georgia is the real deal. They took on a top-15 opponent (#11 Oregon) and embarrassed them on a national, quasi-neutral stage.
- #20 Kentucky did not look like a scary top-20 Power-5 team in their 37-13 win over Miami (OH). Their FPI will be tested by #12 Florida this week, #22 Ole Miss on 10/1, NR South Carolina on 10/8, #24 Tennessee on 10/39, and #2 Georgia on 11/19. More importantly, Florida will get a live test of the FPI jump to #12 and AP poll boost from unranked to #12.
- NR Tennessee looked pretty good in their tuneup against Ball State. They will likely be ranked around #20 by the time they face Florida on 9/24. A victory over Tennessee would help Florida's FPI and AP Poll ranking.
- #7 Texas A&M's lackluster victory over Sam Houston State could be attributed to the weather. They will probably ranked around #5 by the time they face Florida, assuming they do well against #15 Miami, #16 Arkansas, #1 Alabama, NR South Carolina, and #22 Ole Miss.

Beating those teams or looking good in a close loss to two of them will show us a lot about the Gators by November.

So I guess we "part ways" analytically for a while here, E--:
Or to be more precise, you go ahead and "analyze"/over-complicate things like everyone else...In case y'all STILL haven't gotten my message/main point here, I am for the moment ignoring/ABANDONING all the numbers/complex numetrics/ blah blah blah.
As much as we may have gathered in this crazy hodge podge of early results, I just don't think it tells us all that much about even the PRESENT, let alone the future. Either way, I prefer to just calm down, get our bearings, see what we really GOT: It's amazing how many different ways all the "analyzers and prognosticators" see the same supposed "sets of data" thus far.
Me, I see the possible early signs of PATTERNS, but am NOT READY to draw concrete conclusions--much less base predictions on it.
Neither are we likely to see much in the way of consistency yet. For now, it will have to be enough to "Wait and SEE!", as I say.
For good or ill, our emotional satisfaction will rise or fall based on our results and progress week-to-week. Since neither perfection nor an undefeated season seems at all likely, to some extent a bumpy road appears inevitable.
But there's a CHANCE we could "shake up the WORLD!" between now and the Cocktail Party, anyway.

 

[DRU2012]

(Don't get me wrong: I am NOT dismissing the value of a deep analytical approach, especially when trying to basically feel one's way through darkness...and I totally credit and appreciate the consistent manner in which @Escambia94, develops and supports difficult-to-fathom trends in the course of a season's wild, often impenetrable swings.
It just isn't how I am inclined to follow and enjoy the early going for OUR team as we begin to redefine ourselves under a whole new regime.
Game by game, a new identity is being forged.
I mean to maximize whatever joy comes our way, while minimizing how painfully disappointing inevitable setbacks are bound to be. I suppose it is how I protect myself...)

 

[DRU2012]

On the OTHER hand, possibly I am just confused--fearful of the hope and happiness manifest in that opening home win at the very end in a raucous, old-timey (Spurrier-Era?) SWAMP, Week 1.
This next game will tell a lot, answer many questions. At home against another "ranked team", our SEC opener against a program who is in a certain amount of disarray now themselves: It is there for the taking, if we really HAVE truly "turned the page".
This is what "We'll SEE..." is all about!

 

[Escambia94]

So I guess we "part ways" analytically for a while here, E--:
Or to be more precise, you go ahead and "analyze"/over-complicate things like everyone else...In case y'all STILL haven't gotten my message/main point here, I am for the moment ignoring/ABANDONING all the numbers/complex numetrics/ blah blah blah.
As much as we may have gathered in this crazy hodge podge of early results, I just don't think it tells us all that much about even the PRESENT, let alone the future. Either way, I prefer to just calm down, get our bearings, see what we really GOT: It's amazing how many different ways all the "analyzers and prognosticators" see the same supposed "sets of data" thus far.
Me, I see the possible early signs of PATTERNS, but am NOT READY to draw concrete conclusions--much less base predictions on it.
Neither are we likely to see much in the way of consistency yet. For now, it will have to be enough to "Wait and SEE!", as I say.
For good or ill, our emotional satisfaction will rise or fall based on our results and progress week-to-week. Since neither perfection nor an undefeated season seems at all likely, to some extent a bumpy road appears inevitable.
But there's a CHANCE we could "shake up the WORLD!" between now and the Cocktail Party, anyway.

FYI - I am an engineer by trade. I over analyze everything.

 

[DRU2012]

FYI - I am an engineer by trade. I over analyze everything.

Lol--Actually, I LIKE it: You provide detailed, relevant FACTS, and your "takes" are the perfect contrast/"jumping off point" to my more "emotional/intuitive" approach.
Anyway, as I say, I tend to second guess MYSELF regardless, obviously...
Back in my betting days I would absorb vast QUANTITIES of the "deep numbers" in order to find the "right wager" each week--but back then my gambling was focused mainly on the pros.
I'd early learned the hard way that it was a big mistake "betting emotionally", and everything ABOUT college football, not just betting on the games themselves but the way EVERYONE, coaches, players and fans ALL operated out on "THE EMOTIONAL EDGE".
Now I follow college football and of course our beloved Reptiles above and beyond all other Sport--for love of the sport and our University ALONE.
And that is MORE than "enough" now for me.

 

[Escambia94]

Here are the updated FPI for Florida and the upcoming opponents. Bigger numbers are better. Note that Florida's FPI started at 9.3 in the preseason, got a bump to 10.6 after beating Utah, dropped to 8.0 after losing to Kentucky, dropped to 5.1 after narrowly escaping USF, and actually increased to 6.2 after a strong showing in the loss to Tennessee. You can also see that Utah's FPI has gone up since their loss to Florida, which means they are improving. Kentucky's FPI is slowly declining, but still higher than Florida's. USF, Eastern Washington, and Vanderbilt are all in the negative FPI range, meaning they will probably finish below 0.500. Tennessee's FPI was climbing steadily until they faced Florida. Georgia's FPI took a slight hit this week, but they are still head and shoulders above the rest of the SEC East. Missouri is on the decline. LSU and FSU are both rapidly improving. Texas A&M is a complete mystery and are on the decline.

Running the FPI forward, Florida will be double-digit underdogs to Georgia, single-digit underdogs to LSU, and should be toss-ups against Texas A&M and FSU. If FSU performs well against Clemson and Miami, then Florida could be underdogs to them when factoring in their home field advantage.

	UF	UU	UK	USF	UT	EWU	MIZ	LSU	UGA	TAMU	USC	VU	FSU
Week 0​	9.30​	12.90​	12.00​	-4.30​	9.80​	-15.00​	2.10​	14.00​	28.00​	13.10​	5.10​	0.50​	7.90​
Week 1​	10.60​	12.30​	12.10​	-8.90​	14.80​	-15.00​	5.10​	13.90​	29.40​	11.90​	5.40​	-2.20​	8.30​
Week 2​	8.00​	15.30​	12.10​	-11.90​	15.60​	-15.00​	1.90​	14.90​	29.20​	9.10​	4.90​	-4.10​	8.30​
Week 3​	5.10​	15.40​	11.00​	-9.20​	18.20​	-15.00​	-0.80​	16.20​	29.20​	9.20​	0.60​	-3.80​	8.30​
Week 4​	6.20​	16.50​	8.50​	-11.80​	16.20​	-15.00​	0.30​	17.40​	27.20​	8.40​	1.90​	-5.40​	9.50​

 

[Escambia94]

For discussion purposes I will extrapolate the FPI through week 12 using the same figures from week 4. The expected wins have dropped from 7.4 to 6.1 because LSU and FSU have improved, and Texas A&M has declined. Keep watching the FPI movement over the next few weeks. My projected odds in the remaining games are as follows (negative numbers indicate Florida is the favorite; positive numbers indicate Florida is the underdog; home field advantage of 3 points factored in):

• vs EWU -24.2
• vs Missouri -8.9
• vs LSU +8.2
• neutral site vs UGA +24.0
• at Texas A&M +5.2
• vs South Carolina +7.3
• at Vanderbilt -14.6
• at FSU +6.3

I think the expected wins could still climb to 7 if Clemson and Miami take FSU down a notch. LSU will probably beat Auburn and lose to Tennessee before facing Florida, so we should watch those games to get an idea of our chances against LSU at home. If this model is stable as of week 4, the Gators will finish 6-6. The variables are LSU, Texas A&M and FSU.

	UU	UK	USF	UT	EWU	MIZ	LSU	UGA	TAMU	USC	VU	FSU
Week 0​	-0.60​	-2.70​	13.60​	-0.50​	24.30​	7.20​	-4.70​	-18.70​	-3.80​	4.20​	8.80​	1.40​
Week 1​	1.30​	-1.50​	19.50​	-4.20​	25.60​	5.50​	-3.30​	-18.80​	-1.30​	5.20​	12.80​	2.30​
Week 2​	-7.30​	-1.10​	19.90​	-7.60​	23.00​	6.10​	-6.90​	-21.20​	-1.10​	3.10​	12.10​	-0.30​
Week 3​	-10.30​	-5.90​	17.30​	-13.10​	20.10​	5.90​	-11.10​	-24.10​	-4.10​	4.50​	8.90​	-3.20​
Week 4​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-13.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 5​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	24.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 6​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	8.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 7​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-8.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 8​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-24.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 9​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-5.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 10​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	7.30​	11.60​	-3.30​
Week 11​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	14.60​	-3.30​
Week 12​	-10.30​	-2.30​	18.00​	-10.00​	21.20​	5.90​	-11.20​	-21.00​	-2.20​	4.30​	11.60​	-6.30​