The effects of COVID, NIL and the transfer portal

[Escambia94]

The compounding effects of COVID, NIL, and the transfer portal have altered the formula needed to win national championships. Historically the formula leaned towards team that recruited the best depth through high school recruits. Michigan, Washington, and FSU bucked the trend by using a rather old roster with 4th, 5th, 6th, and sometimes 7th-year seniors. Time will tell if this formula holds up, but my theory is that in the long run the best teams will still be built primarily from high school recruiting but augmented by the transfer portal.

The chart below shows that Michigan, Washington, and FSU had ZERO freshman starters but Florida had 6. Michigan and Washington had 3 and 4 sophomores/ redshirt freshmen, FSU had ZERO, and Florida had 8. The takeaway here is that Florida started 14 freshmen and redshirt freshmen but Michigan, Washington, and FSU started a combined 7 amongst all three teams. Michigan, Washington, and FSU all focused on starting experienced seniors and transfers. Of note, 9 of Michigan's 18 seniors and super-seniors were transfers.

Another interesting note is that neither Mighican nor Washington recruited high school recruits in top 10-15. I doubt this trend will continue but it will be a talking point for a while.

​

Class​	Michigan​	Washington​	FSU​	Florida​
2017 (Gr)	0​	0​	2​	0​
2018 (Gr)	1​	0​	2​	0​
2019 (R-Sr, Gr)	13​	9​	6​	2​
2020 (Sr, R-Jr)	2​	8​	18​	0​
2021 (Jr, R-So)	4​	9​	2​	7​
2022 (So, R-Fr)	3​	4​	0​	8​
2023 (Fr)	0​	0​	0​	6​

 

[DRU2012]

I have often wondered over the last few years--first in the early "Covid years" whether it would affect such things, and if so HOW MUCH?...Then, as time went on and saw that it indeed DID, have more and more wondered how far this effect will go, and for how long?
I'm still not at all sure, but one thing I AM hoping, perhaps even COUNTING ON:
Will our grabbing and indeed PLAYING (as promised, possibly tipping certain high-ranked prospects in our FAVOR) talented but still wholly under-prepared true-freshmen in notably higher numbers ultimately pay dividends on the field and in our record in seasons to come.
That's gotta be the one potential benefit--and one that could eventually affect what others do as a result. If all this somehow results in a notable Gator resurgence, the "experts" will be singing a different tune, the "trends" will shift and the "smart money" will flow back to the traditional "recruit, recruit, RECRUIT!" approach.