OGT 2023 Week 7: Florida at South Carolina (10/14/2023)

[Escambia94]

Overview
This Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 2:30 PM EDT the Florida Gators meet the South Carolina Gamecocks for the 44th time since 1911. The Gators won 25 of last 32 since 1964. The ‘Cocks are favored by 2 at home and the over/under is 52.5.


Gainesville: Florida leads, 17-2
Columbia: Florida leads, 12-8-1
Neutral: Florida leads, 1-0-2

Statistical Overview
The Gators and Gamecocks are not too far apart in statistics. The Gators have a better rushing attack when they choose to use it, and a better overall defense (at least at home). Florida is #41 in the Sagarin ratings, and South Carolina is #37. The two offenses are ranked close to one another at #58 and #62. The Gamecocks have one of the worst defenses in the nation at #118 to Florida’s #16, which means the Gators will make the South Carolina defense look like national contenders.

Team Stat	FLA	SC
Total Offense	2458 YD/6.22 YPP/409.7 YPG/20 TD (#58)	1996 YD/ 5.96 YPP/ 399.2 YPG/ 18 TD (#62)
Total Yards	409.7	399.2
Yards Passing	256.7	312.2
Yards Rushing	153.0	87.0
Total Defense	1719 YD/ 5.41 YPP/ 286.5 YPG/ 13 TD (#16)	2215 YD/ 6.17 YPP/ 443.0 YPG/ 17 TD (#118)
Yards Allowed	286.3	443.0
Pass Yards Allowed	166.0	301.4
Rush Yards Allowed	120.3	141.6

Comparison of Team Stats
Graham Mertz and Spencer Rattler have similar statistics, but Mertz has a top-20 rating. Both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne are in the top half of FBS in yards per carry (YPC). Xavier Legette is #4 in receiving yards per game and Ricky Pearsall is #50.

Season Stat	FLA	SC
Passing	G. Mertz 140/175 1474 YD 9 TD 2 INT 165.44 RAT (#20)	S. Rattler 119-163 1411 YD 7 TD 3 INT (156.21 (#32)
Rushing	M. Johnson 74 CAR 388 YD 4 TD (#62 YPC) T. Etienne 60 CAR 358 YD (#33 YPC)	M. Anderson 44 CAR 230 YD 2 TD D. Joyner 40 CAR 100 YD 4 TD
Receiving	R. Pearsall 34 REC 453 YD 2 TD (#50 YPG) E. Wilson III 20 REC 168 YD 1 TD A. Boardingham 13 REC 150 YD 3 TD C. Douglas 11 REC 134 YD 1 TD	X. Legette 32 REC 606 YD 3 TD (#4 YPG) T. Knox 17 REC 164 YD 1 TD A. Brown 11 REC 133 YD 0 TD O. Blake 10 REC 126 YD 1 TD

Florida's Last 5 Games​

The Gators look okay to good at home, but look like garbage on the road.

DATE	OPP	RESULT
10/7/23	vs VAN	W38-14
9/30/23	#22 @UK	L33-14
9/23/23	vs CLT	W22-7
9/16/23	vs #11 TENN	W29-16
9/9/23	vs MCN	W49-7

South Carolina's Last 5 Games​

The Gamecocks are still looking for a spark at home or on the road.

DATE	OPP	RESULT
9/30/23	@ #21 TENN	L41-20
9/23/23	vsMSST	W37-30
9/16/23	@ #1 UGA	L24-14
9/9/23	vsFUR	W47-21
9/2/23	vs #21 UNC	L31-17

South Carolina’s Last 5 Games
Against common opponents the Gators have a 29-16 victory over Tennessee, while the Gamecocks have a 20-41 loss. South Carolina was outgained 333 to 477 in their loss. Florida was out-gained 349-387 in their victory.

Last 10 Meetings​

SC coach Shane Beamer is building a decent team up there in Columbia, South Carolina. He is 17-14 (8-11) since taking over from William Larry Muschamp in 2021. Muschamp was 28-30 (17-22). Steven Orr Spurrier was the last head coach for South Carolina with a winning record of 86-49 (44-40). In the past decade Spurrier was 2-1, Muschamp was 1-5, and Beamer is 1-1.

Date	Location	FLA	SCAR	Summary
11/12/2022	Gainesville, FL	38	6	Anthony Richardson passed for 11/23 112 YD 2 TD and rushed for 96 YD on 15 carries with a TD as the Gators outgained the Gamecocks 515-237. Montrell Johnson ran for 161 YD on 24 carries for a TD and Trevor Etienne added 100 YD on 8 carries with a TD.
11/6/2/2021	Columbia, SC	17	40	Shane Beamer channeled knowledge from his former mentor Steve Spurrier won his first game against the Gators in a blowout. The SC defense held the running game led by Dameon Pierce, Emory Jones, and Malik Davis to only 82 yards.
10/3/2020	Gainesville, FL	38	24	The #3 Gators continued the offensive onslaught despite some feisty resistance from the Gamecocks. Kyle Trask put up some Heisman-worthy numbers with 21/29 268 YD 4 TD 1 INT. The Gator running game was limited to 80 yards, with a quarter of that coming from normally immobile Kyle Trask.
10/19/2019	Columbia, SC	38	27	Kyle Trask had a career day with 4 TDs–3 in the 4th quarter. The game was tied at halftime before Dameon Pierce evented the score with a 75-yard run and they pulled ahead after Trask found Freddie Swain on a 25-yard pass.
11/10/2018	Gainesville, FL	35	31	Feleipe Franks took advantage of being un-benched and silenced the crowd with a decent 15/21 161 YD 1 TD day. The running game carried the day with 367 yards of output shared by Jordan Scarlette, La’Mical Perine, Kadarius Toney, Feleipe Franks, and Dameon Pierce. SC receiver Deebo Samuel did gash the Gators with 120 yards on 4 receptions. Overall the Gators outgained the Cocks 528 to 386 yards. Trask ended the day 21/33 200 YD 4 TD 1 INT.
11/11/2017	Columbia, SC	20	28	The Gamecocks took advantage of a crumbling Gator team operating without a head coach after the firing of Sharkhumper. Neither Felipe Franks nor Malik Zaire could jumpstart this lethargic offense. Former Gator coach Will Muschamp earned his first and only victory against his old team.
11/12/2016	Gainesville, FL	20	7	Florida welcomed their former coach back to Gainesville by defeating his Gamecocks 20-7 in a rather ugly game where the Gators committed 10 penalties for 80 yards. Somehow the Gators outgained the Cocks 372-213. Austin Appleby had a decent day going 17/21 201 YD 2 TD 1 INT. Jordan Scarlett, Austin Appleby, Jordan Cronkrite, La’Mical Perine, Mark Thompson, and Brandon Powell teamed up for 171 yards rushing.
11/14/2015	Columbia, SC	24	14	Florida defeated South Carolina just a month after Steve Spurrier announced his “retirement” from coaching. Treon Harris went 19/33 256 YD 1 TD 2 INT. Kelvin Taylor, Jordan Cronkrite, Treon Harris, and Brandon Powell combined for 148 yards on the ground.
11/15/2014	Gainesville, FL	20	23	Will Muschamp found a way to lose to Steve Spurrier in the Swamp in overtime. Treon Harris went 5/11 for 60 whole yards and somehow managed a TD. Harris did run for 111 yards on 20 carries, but was allergic to the end zone.
11/16/2013	Columbia, SC	14	19	Steve Spurrier’s team set a record with 16 straight home wins…in Columbia, South Carolina. Florida’s backup-to-the-backup QB eked out 107 yards passing on a 10/12 day with an INT. Kelvin Taylor, Mack Brown, Valdez Showers, Solomon Patton, Hunter Joyer, and Trey Burton combined for 200 yards and 2 TD on the ground. The Gators somehow led at halftime and took a nap in the second half–for the entire second half.

​

 

[Escambia94]

Scouting the Gators​

The Gators have the more talented roster at first and second team, but they lack the experience that the Gamecocks have with their older roster.

Pos/Depth	Jersey	Name/ Class	Rating
WR-X 1	4	Douglas, Caleb SO	88
WR-X 2	22	Jackson, Kahleil RS SO	n/a
WR-X 3	6	Jean, Andy FR	90
WR-Z 1	3	Wilson III, Eugene FR	95
WR-Z 2	16	Chiakhiao-Bowman, Thai SO/TR	85
WR-Z 3	11	Mizell, Aidan FR	92
WR-Y 1	1	Pearsall, Ricky SR/TR	89
WR-Y 2	00	Fraziars, Ja’Quavion JR	92
WR-Y 3	30	Spierto, Taylor RS SO	n/a
LT 1	58	Barber, Austin RS SO	90
LT 2	74	Hudson II, Lyndell RS SR/ TR	86
LT 3	79	Herman, Jordan RS SO/TR	n/a
LG 1	67	Leonard IV, Richie JR	85
LG 2	77	Harris, Knijeah FR	88
LG 3	56	Williams, Christian RS FR	86
OC 1	65	Eguakun, Kingsley RS JR	87
OC 2	66	Slaughter, Jake RS SO	85
OC 3	71	Kearney, Roderick FR	94
RG 1	54	Mazzccua, Micah JR/TR	90
RG 2	52	Farmer, Jalen RS FR	87
RG 3	64	Simonds, Riley RS JR	89
RT 1	76	George Jr., Damieon JR/TR	89
RT 2	75	Waites, Kamryn RS SO/ TR	91
RT 3	73	Pitts, Mark RS SO	84
LTE 1	89	Hansen, Hayden RS FR	80
LTE 2	18	Zander, Dante RS SR	n/a
RTE 1	8	Boardingham, Arlis RS FR	90
RTE 2	87	Odom, Jonathan RS JR	86
QB 1	15	Mertz, Graham RS JR/TR	90
QB 2	17	Brown, Max RS FR	87
QB 3	10	Miller III, Jack RS SO/TR	86
RB 1	2	Johnson Jr., Montrell JR/TR	90
RB 2	7	Etienne, Trevor SO	88
RB 3	20	Webb, Treyaun FR	90
DE 1	94	Sapp, Tyreak RS SO	92
DE 2	24	James, Kamran FR	95
DE 3	11	Collins, Kelby FR	96
NT 1	99	Jackson, Cam JR/TR	90
NT 2	95	Lyons, Jamari RS FR	91
NT 3	21	Watson, Desmond JR	88
DT 1	88	Banks, Caleb RS SO/TR	91
DT 2	7	McClellan, Chris SO	95
DT 3	9	Norman, Will FR	90
JACK 1	1	Umanmielen, Princely JR	90
JACK 2	19	Searcy, TJ FR	92
JACK 3	44	Pyburn, Jack SO	88
MLB 1	17	Williams, Scooby RS SO	97
MLB 2	20	Mitchell, Teradja RS SR/ TR	90
MLB 3	15	Wingo, Derek JR	97
WLB 1	6	James, Shemar SO	95
WLB 2	34	Nunnery, Mannie RS JR/TR	86
WLB 3	29	Robinson, Jaden FR	90
LCB 1	8	Kimber, Jalen RS JR/TR	91
LCB 2	28	Moore, Devin SO	90
LCB 3	26	Johnson, Dijon FR	94
SS 1	14	Castell, Jordan FR	88
SS 2	16	Moten, RJ JR/TR	92
FS 1	10	Mitchell, Miguel SO	84
FS 2	18	Thornton, Bryce FR	88
RCB 1	3	Marshall Jr., Jason JR	98
RCB 2	2	Jackson, Ja’Keem FR	97
STAR 1	23	Hill, Jaydon RS JR	92
STAR 2	00	Denson, Sharif FR	90

Florida Depth Chart​

Scouting the Gamecocks​

Pos	Jersey	Name	Rating
WR-X	17	Legette, Xavier RS SR	87
WR-Z	89	Blake, O’Mega RS SO	87
WR-SL	10	Brown, Ahmarean RS SR/TR	88
LT	51	Babalade, Tree FR	92
LG	69	Gargiulo, Nick GR/TR	n/a
OC	53	Lee, Vershon RS JR	86
RG	55	Moore, Jakai RS SR	89
RT	77	Fugar, Sidney RS SO/TR	n/a
TE	1	Knox, Trey GR/TR	91
QB	7	Rattler, Spencer RS SR/TR	99
RB	24	Anderson, Mario RS SR/TR	n/a
DE	10	Johnson, Tyreek RS SR	85
NT	95	Huntley, Alex RS JR	92
DT	91	Hemingway, Tonka SR	90
OLB	7	Strachan, Jordan GR/TR	77
MLB	52	Blanton, Stone SO	90
WLB	00	Williams, Debo RS JR/TR	80
LCB	3	Fortune, O’Donnell RS JR	86
SS	21	Emmanwori, Nick SO	89
FS	1	Smith, DQ SO	86
RCB	6	Dial, Marcellas RS SR/TR	84
NB	18	Nelson Jr., Keenan RS FR	92

South Carolina Depth Chart​

Summary​

The Gators are the more talented team, but the coaches and the players seem to forget how to play football whenever they go on the road. Both teams are rather inept, but South Carolina seems to suck slightly less when playing at home. These games have not been close lately, with the suckier team quitting at halftime and letting the other team practice beating up the dummy for a half. It might as well be a coin toss to determine which team will be the dummy in this game.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
Yeah, that sums this one up quite thoroughly.
We "should" beat these guys--but this Gator team on the road cannot reasonably be favored until it actually shows up and THRASHES inferior squads at least a coupla times. I THINK they are "better" enough to do that here, so for now:
"Here's your 'Chance Number One', boys!"
After this, I suppose the only "Chance Number Two" that MIGHT be out there THIS year is Mizzou--but let's just see what we do with this one. For the moment, I sadly see no reason to confidently change my outlook as to the rest of our schedule.
(By the way, reports say that Billy is "tweaking" travel plans and assorted other pregame schedule and routine factors leading up to Saturday's game in Columbia...That's a good idea--but an even better one would see such changes in substantive areas like maybe a more open and aggressive offensive gameplan? And similarly positive APAPTATION between first and second halves?)

 

[Escambia94]

The key to this game will be pressuring Spencer Rattler without blitzing him. Rattler is horrible against pressure but excellent against the blitz.

A corollary to above is to limit Rattler to short passes. In some ways the Gamecocks offense has a similar goal of throwing short to open the deep pass, but their receiving game has not clicked yet. Rattler throws < 10 yards 45% of the time compared to Mertz who is about 30%. Rattler has taken more deep shots (20) compared to Mertz (16, with 9 completions). Rattler’s stats only differ from Mertz’s in the higher completion rate with passes > 15 yards in air despite taking more short passes than Mertz.

 

[DRU2012]

This is by no means a "scary" S. Carolina squad on EITHER side of the line of scrimmage--but we aren't one that can consistently EXPLOIT such weaknesses either.
Defense has to show its best side, offense MUST finally TRUST MERTZ: "Stretch the FIELD, Billy!"
I don't really have much to add beyond that--and everything I've said before now.
To wit: I WANT to believe, but for now remain EXTREMELY pessimistic (especially with us having to go on the ROAD--basically for the balance of the SEASON).

 

[DRU2012]

Oops! Just noted the weather forecast for this one: Gonna be cold'n'wet-- muddy track, meaning not necessarily that the Gators SHOULDN'T let the indefatigably accurate Graham Mertz take some shots: only that our Coach, more than ever will eschew the pass and focus all the more on our superior running game against what has so far been this Gamecock team's glaring weakness on defense: We will mainly run the ball--and if we are able to do so, that should make the difference.
However, if we could just take a few shots EARLY maybe we could stake our defense to a nice lead on a fast START for a change...
I'm NOT inclined to "bet the house" on it though.

 

[DRU2012]

Turns out its clear in Columbia--so Mertz is free to throw it a bit, if Billy let's him.
"Believe it when I SEE it"--so as far as who I see WINNING here, well, I just cannot count on anything along those lines happening until they begin showing that they are finally READY to begin asserting themselves.
They MUST start fast.

 

[DRU2012]

This was exactly what we needed...a long strong drive. TD!

 

[DRU2012]

Dominant drive...may be marked down outside endzone...This is stupid. WAY too much time studying this. Yeah--touchdown.

 

[DRU2012]

Now up to the D: If we can also establish that side of things here and now this COULD be that first road win after all.

 

[DRU2012]

Can not, MUST not give up the big play here.
This is our chance to take control from the START.

 

[DRU2012]

Stupid penalty...had them STOPPED.
Now they break free. There went our chance at taking control early.
We are blowing a game we almost had under control early!

 

[DRU2012]

Uhoh...Here's the breakdown Gator defense, missing tackles.
Well, that was nice while it lasted. Florida's "road defense" is back--hardly any "defense" at ALL.

 

[Escambia94]

I liked that first drive by the Gators. Lots of up tempo. Cocks return fire by picking on #14 Jordan Castell.

 

[DRU2012]

Sigh. I feel like going to sleep--and waking up two seasons from now!

 

[DRU2012]

Crowd's back in it too.
THIS is when a quick strike capability would really help.

 

[Escambia94]

Gators first drive was 9 plays, 66 yards, 4:07.

• 2nd & Goal at SC 3​

  (10:47 - 1st) Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)

• 1st & Goal at SC 7​

  (14:54 - 1st) Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the SC 3

• 2nd & 8 at SC 18​

  (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 11 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST down

• 1st & 10 at SC 20​

  (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SC 18

• 3rd & 1 at SC 22​

  (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the SC 20 for a 1ST down

• 2nd & 1 at SC 22​

  (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SC 22

• 1st & 10 at SC 31​

  (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the SC 22

• 1st & 10 at FLA 45​

  (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 24 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST down

• 1st & 10 at FLA 34​

  (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down
• (14:54 - 1st) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 47 yds , Tyreak Sapp return for 16 yds to the FLA 34

 

[DRU2012]

LAST thing we want is to get in any kind of shoot out here...but u less that D of ours can somehow tighten up, that'll be our fate.

 

[Escambia94]

SC drove 75 yards on 7 plays in 2:58.

 

[DRU2012]

WTF??? Billy run outta plays???