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OGT 2023 Week 7: Florida at South Carolina (10/14/2023)

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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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Overview
This Saturday, October 14, 2023 at 2:30 PM EDT the Florida Gators meet the South Carolina Gamecocks for the 44th time since 1911. The Gators won 25 of last 32 since 1964. The ‘Cocks are favored by 2 at home and the over/under is 52.5.


Gainesville: Florida leads, 17-2
Columbia: Florida leads, 12-8-1
Neutral: Florida leads, 1-0-2
Beat South Carolina F7_MmWZWAAARYU_.jpeg


Statistical Overview
The Gators and Gamecocks are not too far apart in statistics. The Gators have a better rushing attack when they choose to use it, and a better overall defense (at least at home). Florida is #41 in the Sagarin ratings, and South Carolina is #37. The two offenses are ranked close to one another at #58 and #62. The Gamecocks have one of the worst defenses in the nation at #118 to Florida’s #16, which means the Gators will make the South Carolina defense look like national contenders.


Team StatFLASC
Total Offense2458 YD/6.22 YPP/409.7 YPG/20 TD (#58)1996 YD/ 5.96 YPP/ 399.2 YPG/ 18 TD (#62)
Total Yards409.7399.2
Yards Passing256.7312.2
Yards Rushing153.087.0
Total Defense1719 YD/ 5.41 YPP/ 286.5 YPG/ 13 TD (#16)2215 YD/ 6.17 YPP/ 443.0 YPG/ 17 TD (#118)
Yards Allowed286.3443.0
Pass Yards Allowed166.0301.4
Rush Yards Allowed120.3141.6

Comparison of Team Stats
Graham Mertz and Spencer Rattler have similar statistics, but Mertz has a top-20 rating. Both Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne are in the top half of FBS in yards per carry (YPC). Xavier Legette is #4 in receiving yards per game and Ricky Pearsall is #50.

Season StatFLASC
PassingG. Mertz 140/175 1474 YD 9 TD 2 INT 165.44 RAT (#20)S. Rattler 119-163 1411 YD 7 TD 3 INT (156.21 (#32)
RushingM. Johnson 74 CAR 388 YD 4 TD (#62 YPC)
T. Etienne 60 CAR 358 YD (#33 YPC)
M. Anderson 44 CAR 230 YD 2 TD
D. Joyner 40 CAR 100 YD 4 TD
ReceivingR. Pearsall 34 REC 453 YD 2 TD (#50 YPG)
E. Wilson III 20 REC 168 YD 1 TD
A. Boardingham 13 REC 150 YD 3 TD
C. Douglas 11 REC 134 YD 1 TD
X. Legette 32 REC 606 YD 3 TD (#4 YPG)
T. Knox 17 REC 164 YD 1 TD
A. Brown 11 REC 133 YD 0 TD
O. Blake 10 REC 126 YD 1 TD


Florida's Last 5 Games

The Gators look okay to good at home, but look like garbage on the road.
DATEOPPRESULT
10/7/23vs VANW38-14
9/30/23#22 @UKL33-14
9/23/23vs CLTW22-7
9/16/23vs #11 TENNW29-16
9/9/23vs MCNW49-7

South Carolina's Last 5 Games

The Gamecocks are still looking for a spark at home or on the road.
DATEOPPRESULT
9/30/23@ #21 TENNL41-20
9/23/23vsMSSTW37-30
9/16/23@ #1 UGAL24-14
9/9/23vsFURW47-21
9/2/23vs #21 UNCL31-17
South Carolina’s Last 5 Games
Against common opponents the Gators have a 29-16 victory over Tennessee, while the Gamecocks have a 20-41 loss. South Carolina was outgained 333 to 477 in their loss. Florida was out-gained 349-387 in their victory.


Last 10 Meetings

SC coach Shane Beamer is building a decent team up there in Columbia, South Carolina. He is 17-14 (8-11) since taking over from William Larry Muschamp in 2021. Muschamp was 28-30 (17-22). Steven Orr Spurrier was the last head coach for South Carolina with a winning record of 86-49 (44-40). In the past decade Spurrier was 2-1, Muschamp was 1-5, and Beamer is 1-1.


DateLocationFLASCARSummary
11/12/2022Gainesville, FL386Anthony Richardson passed for 11/23 112 YD 2 TD and rushed for 96 YD on 15 carries with a TD as the Gators outgained the Gamecocks 515-237. Montrell Johnson ran for 161 YD on 24 carries for a TD and Trevor Etienne added 100 YD on 8 carries with a TD.
11/6/2/2021Columbia, SC1740Shane Beamer channeled knowledge from his former mentor Steve Spurrier won his first game against the Gators in a blowout. The SC defense held the running game led by Dameon Pierce, Emory Jones, and Malik Davis to only 82 yards.
10/3/2020Gainesville, FL3824The #3 Gators continued the offensive onslaught despite some feisty resistance from the Gamecocks. Kyle Trask put up some Heisman-worthy numbers with 21/29 268 YD 4 TD 1 INT. The Gator running game was limited to 80 yards, with a quarter of that coming from normally immobile Kyle Trask.
10/19/2019Columbia, SC3827Kyle Trask had a career day with 4 TDs–3 in the 4th quarter. The game was tied at halftime before Dameon Pierce evented the score with a 75-yard run and they pulled ahead after Trask found Freddie Swain on a 25-yard pass.
11/10/2018Gainesville, FL3531Feleipe Franks took advantage of being un-benched and silenced the crowd with a decent 15/21 161 YD 1 TD day. The running game carried the day with 367 yards of output shared by Jordan Scarlette, La’Mical Perine, Kadarius Toney, Feleipe Franks, and Dameon Pierce. SC receiver Deebo Samuel did gash the Gators with 120 yards on 4 receptions. Overall the Gators outgained the Cocks 528 to 386 yards. Trask ended the day 21/33 200 YD 4 TD 1 INT.
11/11/2017Columbia, SC2028The Gamecocks took advantage of a crumbling Gator team operating without a head coach after the firing of Sharkhumper. Neither Felipe Franks nor Malik Zaire could jumpstart this lethargic offense. Former Gator coach Will Muschamp earned his first and only victory against his old team.
11/12/2016Gainesville, FL207Florida welcomed their former coach back to Gainesville by defeating his Gamecocks 20-7 in a rather ugly game where the Gators committed 10 penalties for 80 yards. Somehow the Gators outgained the Cocks 372-213. Austin Appleby had a decent day going 17/21 201 YD 2 TD 1 INT. Jordan Scarlett, Austin Appleby, Jordan Cronkrite, La’Mical Perine, Mark Thompson, and Brandon Powell teamed up for 171 yards rushing.
11/14/2015Columbia, SC2414Florida defeated South Carolina just a month after Steve Spurrier announced his “retirement” from coaching. Treon Harris went 19/33 256 YD 1 TD 2 INT. Kelvin Taylor, Jordan Cronkrite, Treon Harris, and Brandon Powell combined for 148 yards on the ground.
11/15/2014Gainesville, FL2023Will Muschamp found a way to lose to Steve Spurrier in the Swamp in overtime. Treon Harris went 5/11 for 60 whole yards and somehow managed a TD. Harris did run for 111 yards on 20 carries, but was allergic to the end zone.
11/16/2013Columbia, SC1419Steve Spurrier’s team set a record with 16 straight home wins…in Columbia, South Carolina. Florida’s backup-to-the-backup QB eked out 107 yards passing on a 10/12 day with an INT. Kelvin Taylor, Mack Brown, Valdez Showers, Solomon Patton, Hunter Joyer, and Trey Burton combined for 200 yards and 2 TD on the ground. The Gators somehow led at halftime and took a nap in the second half–for the entire second half.

 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator

Scouting the Gators


The Gators have the more talented roster at first and second team, but they lack the experience that the Gamecocks have with their older roster.


Pos/DepthJerseyName/ ClassRating
WR-X 14Douglas, Caleb SO88
WR-X 222Jackson, Kahleil RS SOn/a
WR-X 36Jean, Andy FR90
WR-Z 13Wilson III, Eugene FR95
WR-Z 216Chiakhiao-Bowman, Thai SO/TR85
WR-Z 311Mizell, Aidan FR92
WR-Y 11Pearsall, Ricky SR/TR89
WR-Y 200Fraziars, Ja’Quavion JR92
WR-Y 330Spierto, Taylor RS SOn/a
LT 158Barber, Austin RS SO90
LT 274Hudson II, Lyndell RS SR/ TR86
LT 379Herman, Jordan RS SO/TRn/a
LG 167Leonard IV, Richie JR85
LG 277Harris, Knijeah FR88
LG 356Williams, Christian RS FR86
OC 165Eguakun, Kingsley RS JR87
OC 266Slaughter, Jake RS SO85
OC 371Kearney, Roderick FR94
RG 154Mazzccua, Micah JR/TR90
RG 252Farmer, Jalen RS FR87
RG 364Simonds, Riley RS JR89
RT 176George Jr., Damieon JR/TR89
RT 275Waites, Kamryn RS SO/ TR91
RT 373Pitts, Mark RS SO84
LTE 189Hansen, Hayden RS FR80
LTE 218Zander, Dante RS SRn/a
RTE 18Boardingham, Arlis RS FR90
RTE 287Odom, Jonathan RS JR86
QB 115Mertz, Graham RS JR/TR90
QB 217Brown, Max RS FR87
QB 310Miller III, Jack RS SO/TR86
RB 12Johnson Jr., Montrell JR/TR90
RB 27Etienne, Trevor SO88
RB 320Webb, Treyaun FR90
DE 194Sapp, Tyreak RS SO92
DE 224James, Kamran FR95
DE 311Collins, Kelby FR96
NT 199Jackson, Cam JR/TR90
NT 295Lyons, Jamari RS FR91
NT 321Watson, Desmond JR88
DT 188Banks, Caleb RS SO/TR91
DT 27McClellan, Chris SO95
DT 39Norman, Will FR90
JACK 11Umanmielen, Princely JR90
JACK 219Searcy, TJ FR92
JACK 344Pyburn, Jack SO88
MLB 117Williams, Scooby RS SO97
MLB 220Mitchell, Teradja RS SR/ TR90
MLB 315Wingo, Derek JR97
WLB 16James, Shemar SO95
WLB 234Nunnery, Mannie RS JR/TR86
WLB 329Robinson, Jaden FR90
LCB 18Kimber, Jalen RS JR/TR91
LCB 228Moore, Devin SO90
LCB 326Johnson, Dijon FR94
SS 114Castell, Jordan FR88
SS 216Moten, RJ JR/TR92
FS 110Mitchell, Miguel SO84
FS 218Thornton, Bryce FR88
RCB 13Marshall Jr., Jason JR98
RCB 22Jackson, Ja’Keem FR97
STAR 123Hill, Jaydon RS JR92
STAR 200Denson, Sharif FR90
Florida Depth Chart​

Scouting the Gamecocks


PosJerseyNameRating
WR-X17Legette, Xavier RS SR87
WR-Z89Blake, O’Mega RS SO87
WR-SL10Brown, Ahmarean RS SR/TR88
LT51Babalade, Tree FR92
LG69Gargiulo, Nick GR/TRn/a
OC53Lee, Vershon RS JR86
RG55Moore, Jakai RS SR89
RT77Fugar, Sidney RS SO/TRn/a
TE1Knox, Trey GR/TR91
QB7Rattler, Spencer RS SR/TR99
RB24Anderson, Mario RS SR/TRn/a
DE10Johnson, Tyreek RS SR85
NT95Huntley, Alex RS JR92
DT91Hemingway, Tonka SR90
OLB7Strachan, Jordan GR/TR77
MLB52Blanton, Stone SO90
WLB00Williams, Debo RS JR/TR80
LCB3Fortune, O’Donnell RS JR86
SS21Emmanwori, Nick SO89
FS1Smith, DQ SO86
RCB6Dial, Marcellas RS SR/TR84
NB18Nelson Jr., Keenan RS FR92
South Carolina Depth Chart​

Summary


The Gators are the more talented team, but the coaches and the players seem to forget how to play football whenever they go on the road. Both teams are rather inept, but South Carolina seems to suck slightly less when playing at home. These games have not been close lately, with the suckier team quitting at halftime and letting the other team practice beating up the dummy for a half. It might as well be a coin toss to determine which team will be the dummy in this game.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
@Escambia94,
Yeah, that sums this one up quite thoroughly.
We "should" beat these guys--but this Gator team on the road cannot reasonably be favored until it actually shows up and THRASHES inferior squads at least a coupla times. I THINK they are "better" enough to do that here, so for now:
"Here's your 'Chance Number One', boys!"
After this, I suppose the only "Chance Number Two" that MIGHT be out there THIS year is Mizzou--but let's just see what we do with this one. For the moment, I sadly see no reason to confidently change my outlook as to the rest of our schedule.
(By the way, reports say that Billy is "tweaking" travel plans and assorted other pregame schedule and routine factors leading up to Saturday's game in Columbia...That's a good idea--but an even better one would see such changes in substantive areas like maybe a more open and aggressive offensive gameplan? And similarly positive APAPTATION between first and second halves?)
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The key to this game will be pressuring Spencer Rattler without blitzing him. Rattler is horrible against pressure but excellent against the blitz.

A corollary to above is to limit Rattler to short passes. In some ways the Gamecocks offense has a similar goal of throwing short to open the deep pass, but their receiving game has not clicked yet. Rattler throws < 10 yards 45% of the time compared to Mertz who is about 30%. Rattler has taken more deep shots (20) compared to Mertz (16, with 9 completions). Rattler’s stats only differ from Mertz’s in the higher completion rate with passes > 15 yards in air despite taking more short passes than Mertz.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
This is by no means a "scary" S. Carolina squad on EITHER side of the line of scrimmage--but we aren't one that can consistently EXPLOIT such weaknesses either.
Defense has to show its best side, offense MUST finally TRUST MERTZ: "Stretch the FIELD, Billy!"
I don't really have much to add beyond that--and everything I've said before now.
To wit: I WANT to believe, but for now remain EXTREMELY pessimistic (especially with us having to go on the ROAD--basically for the balance of the SEASON).
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Oops! Just noted the weather forecast for this one: Gonna be cold'n'wet-- muddy track, meaning not necessarily that the Gators SHOULDN'T let the indefatigably accurate Graham Mertz take some shots: only that our Coach, more than ever will eschew the pass and focus all the more on our superior running game against what has so far been this Gamecock team's glaring weakness on defense: We will mainly run the ball--and if we are able to do so, that should make the difference.
However, if we could just take a few shots EARLY maybe we could stake our defense to a nice lead on a fast START for a change...
I'm NOT inclined to "bet the house" on it though.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Super Moderator
Turns out its clear in Columbia--so Mertz is free to throw it a bit, if Billy let's him.
"Believe it when I SEE it"--so as far as who I see WINNING here, well, I just cannot count on anything along those lines happening until they begin showing that they are finally READY to begin asserting themselves.
They MUST start fast.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Dominant drive...may be marked down outside endzone...This is stupid. WAY too much time studying this. Yeah--touchdown.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Now up to the D: If we can also establish that side of things here and now this COULD be that first road win after all.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Super Moderator
Can not, MUST not give up the big play here.
This is our chance to take control from the START.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Stupid penalty...had them STOPPED.
Now they break free. There went our chance at taking control early.
We are blowing a game we almost had under control early!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Uhoh...Here's the breakdown Gator defense, missing tackles.
Well, that was nice while it lasted. Florida's "road defense" is back--hardly any "defense" at ALL.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I liked that first drive by the Gators. Lots of up tempo. Cocks return fire by picking on #14 Jordan Castell.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Sigh. I feel like going to sleep--and waking up two seasons from now!
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
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Crowd's back in it too.
THIS is when a quick strike capability would really help.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Gators first drive was 9 plays, 66 yards, 4:07.

  • 2nd & Goal at SC 3​

    (10:47 - 1st) Trevor Etienne run for 3 yds for a TD (Trey Smack KICK)
  • 1st & Goal at SC 7​

    (14:54 - 1st) Trevor Etienne run for 4 yds to the SC 3
  • 2nd & 8 at SC 18​

    (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Hayden Hansen for 11 yds to the SC 7 for a 1ST down
  • 1st & 10 at SC 20​

    (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 2 yds to the SC 18
  • 3rd & 1 at SC 22​

    (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz run for 2 yds to the SC 20 for a 1ST down
  • 2nd & 1 at SC 22​

    (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for no gain to the SC 22
  • 1st & 10 at SC 31​

    (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Montrell Johnson Jr. for 9 yds to the SC 22
  • 1st & 10 at FLA 45​

    (14:54 - 1st) Graham Mertz pass complete to Arlis Boardingham for 24 yds to the SC 31 for a 1ST down
  • 1st & 10 at FLA 34​

    (14:54 - 1st) Montrell Johnson Jr. run for 11 yds to the FLA 45 for a 1ST down
  • (14:54 - 1st) Mitch Jeter kickoff for 47 yds , Tyreak Sapp return for 16 yds to the FLA 34
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
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LAST thing we want is to get in any kind of shoot out here...but u less that D of ours can somehow tighten up, that'll be our fate.
 
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