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Official Game Thread: Week 13 Florida Gators at FSU Seminoles 11/25/22

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Overview
The 66th edition of the Sunshine Showdown will take place under the Friday night lights of the FSU high school stadium known as Doak Campbell Stadium at Ron Zook Field. The Gators are 37-26-2 all-time against the Noles in a rivalry that dates back to 1958. The Gators have won the last 3 after dropping the previous 5.
Makala Trophy 295A35E4-2CAB-45FC-A533-FD438725CE1C.png


FSU season results through week 12
The Noles have a signature win over the current #7 LSU team, but they have not beaten a ranked team or higher FPI team this season.

DATEOPPONENTRESULTW-LHIGH PASSHIGH RUSHHIGH REC
Sat, Aug 27vs DuquesneW 47-71-0 (0-0)Travis 207Ward 127Poitier 84
Sun, Sep 4vs LSU *W 24-232-0 (0-0)Travis 260Ward 49Wilson 102
Fri, Sep 16@ LouisvilleW 35-313-0 (1-0)Travis 157Ward 126Wilson 149
Sat, Sep 24vs Boston CollegeW 44-144-0 (2-0)Travis 321Benson 78Williamson 98
Sat, Oct 1vs 22 Wake ForestL 31-214-1 (2-1)Travis 281Ward 87Pittman 85
Sat, Oct 8@ 14 NC StateL 19-174-2 (2-2)Travis 181Travis 108Wilson 60
Sat, Oct 15vs 4 ClemsonL 34-284-3 (2-3)Travis 254Benson 69Wilson 75
Sat, Oct 29vs Georgia TechW 41-165-3 (3-3)Travis 396Benson 111Wilson 111
Sat, Nov 5@ MiamiW 45-36-3 (4-3)Travis 202Benson 128Toafili 75
Sat, Nov 12@ SyracuseW 38-37-3 (5-3)Travis 155Benson 163Douglas 43
Sat, Nov 19vs LouisianaW 49-78-3 (5-3)

Florida season results through week 12
The Gators have a signature win in week 1 over #7 Utah (currently #13), but have not beaten another ranked team this season. Florida did beat Texas A&M as a road underdog. The Gators have been playing many career bench-warmers lately, so I would not expect big performances this late in the season.

DATEOPPONENTRESULTW-LHIGH PASSHIGH RUSHHIGH REC
Sat, Sep 3vs 7 UtahW 29-261-0 (0-0)Richardson 168Richardson 106Pearsall 67
Sat, Sep 10vs 20 KentuckyL 26-161-1 (0-1)Richardson 143Johnson Jr. 62Henderson 50
Sat, Sep 17vs South FloridaW 31-282-1 (0-1)Richardson 112Johnson Jr. 103Shorter 33
Sat, Sep 24@ 11 TennesseeL 38-332-2 (0-2)Richardson 453Richardson 62Shorter 155
Sun, Oct 2vs Eastern WashingtonW 52-173-2 (0-2)Richardson 240Pearsall 76Shorter 75
Sat, Oct 8vs MissouriW 24-174-2 (1-2)Richardson 66Johnson Jr. 86Shorter 20
Sat, Oct 15vs LSUL 45-354-3 (1-3)Richardson 185Richardson 109Shorter 71
Sat, Oct 29vs 1 Georgia *L 42-204-4 (1-4)Richardson 271Etienne 53Henderson 110
Sat, Nov 5@ Texas A&MW 41-245-4 (2-4)Richardson 201Johnson Jr. 100Pearsall 65
Sat, Nov 12vs South CarolinaW 38-66-4 (3-4)Richardson 112Johnson Jr. 161Douglas 53
Sat, Nov 19at VanderbiltL 24-316-5 (3-5)Richardson 400Johnson Jr. 32Reynolds 165

The Gators have started to look like a complete team in weeks 10 and 11, but were struggling with new personnel–most notably at receiver.

NameStatsInactive
Justin Shorter WR29 REC, 577 YD, 19.9 YPC, 2 TD11/5, 11/12
Ricky Pearsall WR24 REC, 448 YD, 18.7 YPC, 3 TD11/19 (half)
Xzavier Henderson WR38 REC, 410 YD, 10.8 YPC, 2 TD11/19
Daejon Reynolds WR11 REC, 244 YD, 22.2 YPC, 2 TD9/10, 9/17, 9/24, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29, 11/5, 11/12
Keon Zipperer TE13 REC, 177 YD, 13.6 YPC, 1 TD10/29, 11/5, 11/12
Caleb Douglas WR8 REC, 150 YD, 18.8 YPC, 2 TD9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 9/24, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29
Trent Whittemore WR4 REC, 87 YD, 21.8 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29, 11/5, 11/12, 11/19, 11/25
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman WR2 REC, 28 YD, 14.0 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 10/8, 10/15, 11/5, 11/12
Montrell Johnson Jr. RB11 REC, 64 YD, 5.8 YPC, 1 TD
Dante Zanders TE9 REC, 54 YD, 7.1 YPC, 0 TD9/3
Trevor Etienne RB7 REC, 31 YD, 4.4 YPC, 0 TD
Ja’Quavion Fraziars WR4 REC, 50 YD, 12.5 YPC, 1 TD9/3, 9/10, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29, 11/12, 11/19, 11/25
Kahleil Jackson WR2 REC, 43 YD, 21.5 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29, 11/19, 11/25
Marcus Burke WR4 REC, 30 YD, 7.5 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 9/24, 10/15, 10/29
Lorenzo Lingard RB2 REC, 22 YD, 11.0 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 10/8, 10/15, 11/19
Nay’Quan Wright RB1 REC, 14 YD, 14.0 YPC, 0 TD10/15, 11/19
Jonathan Odom TE2 REC, 6 YD, 3.0 YPC, 1 TD9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29
Jordan Pouncey WR2 REC, 4 YD, 2.0 YPC, 0 TD9/3, 9/10, 9/17, 10/8, 10/15, 10/29, 11/5

Statistical comparison through week 11
The Noles are clearly a better team in year 3 under Mike Norvell. Florida is in year 1 of its rebuild and it shows.


Team StatsFloridaFSU
Points Per Game31.9 (#42)34.0 (#29)
Points Allowed Per Game26.9 (#74)18.1 (#13)
Total Yards438.9 (#31)477.1 (#16)
Yards Passing213.2 (#86)263.5 (#38)
Yards Rushing225.7 (#11)213.6 (#16)
Yards Allowed421.0 (#105)293.6 (#11)
Pass Yards Allowed249.8 (#95)155.0 (#2)
Rush Yards Allowed171.2 (#95)138.6 (#54)

Prediction
The Noles will be favored by 5 and are expected to win 36-30. According to the weekly Football Power Index, the Noles have been a better team than the Gators throughout most of the season and they have not suffered many major injuries. Florida still lags FSU in most metrics, so it will take a breakthrough performance by the Gators to pull off the upset.
Florida-FSU-SEC FPI 20221114.png
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I am doing my best to hold my armored disappointment with this group of "Mullen's Mess" close--the idea being to maybe keep the inevitable pain at having to live through ONE MORE "PARADE OF THE DAMNED" by this (mostly) collection of entitled shells at bay--or at least AT A DISTANCE.
Some say that these kinds of losses ENHANCE Gator recruiting, that our people out on The Trail get to point at such debacles and say, "Look at the ROOM on our squad for you! YOU will have a chance to start RIGHT AWAY!"
Don't know if that's true, but if it is, then I can really see us finishing strong in THAT regard, anyway. But we've screwed so much else up so badly and so consistently this season, I cannot quite embrace even THAT "forlorn hope".
It is the only one I've got--but somehow I know that a stirring "swan song" by this hardly-to-be-lamented, "sooner-they're-gone-the-better" collection of stiffs who've soured many a Florida Saturday would STILL be welcomed and cheered regardless.
Just disregard my cynical shell.
I am, as always, simply full of SH*T when it comes time to pretend I don't care.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
FSU has the advantage of playing a softer conference schedule where their FPI of 10.6 was better than ACC opponent FPI of 4.9 each week except Clemson (19.1). They only beat 1 team with a higher FPI (LSU). Their average FPI is 10.6, but it has averaged near 15.0 since their bye week. Based on FPI in the preseason the Noles were predicted to go 7-5, but they can get to 8-4 by beating Florida.
FSU
Proj: 7-5>8-4​
FPI:7.9>15.9​
8-3 (5-3)​
7.90​
DUQ​
-15.0​
22.90​
W 47-7​
8.30​
LSU​
13.9​
-5.60​
W 24-23​
8.30​
LOU​
7.6​
0.70​
W 35-31​
9.50​
BC​
-6.9​
16.40​
W 44-14​
11.40​
22 WAKE​
10.0​
1.40​
L 21-31​
8.90​
14 NCST​
8.9​
0.00​
L 17-19​
9.30​
CLEM​
19.1​
-9.80​
L 28-34​
9.40​
BYE​
0.0​
0.00​
-​
10.00​
GATECH​
-5.4​
15.40​
W 41-16​
10.00​
MIA​
2.9​
7.10​
W 45-3​
13.10​
14 SYR​
10.5​
2.60​
W 38-3​
15.10​
UL​
-2.2​
17.30​
W 49-17​
15.90​
UF​
7.4​
8.50​
The Gators played a tougher schedule, but should not have lost to Vanderbilt. The Gators have beaten a couple teams with higher FPI (Utah, Texas A&M). The average conference opponent FPI was 10.9 to their 7.5. Based on FPI in the preseason the Gators were predicted to go 5-7, but they can get to 7-5 by beating the Noles.
UF
Proj: 5-7>6-6​
FPI 9.3>8.6​
1.19​
9.30​
UU​
12.9​
-3.60​
W 29-26​
10.60​
UK​
12.1​
-1.50​
L 16-26​
8.00​
USF​
-11.9​
19.90​
W 31-28​
5.10​
UT​
18.2​
-13.10​
L 33-28​
6.20​
EWU​
-15.0​
21.20​
W 52-17​
6.80​
Mizz​
2.6​
4.20​
W 24-17​
6.90​
LSU​
14.2​
-7.30​
L 35-45​
6.60​
bye​
0.0​
6.60​
6.50​
UGA​
28.2​
-21.70​
L 20-42​
6.50​
TAMU​
6.8​
-0.30​
W 41-24​
7.90​
USC​
3.4​
4.50​
W 38-6​
7.90​
VU​
-6.0​
13.90​
L 24-31​
8.60​
FSU​
15.9​
-7.30​
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Keys to the game:
- Keep the FSU offense under 30 points. The Noles are undefeated when scoring 30+ points
- Pressure QB Travis Jordan. The Nole offensive line has allowed a combined 94 QB pressures, or 8.5 per game. The RT Jazston Turnetine leads the team in pressures allowed with 14, followed by LT Robert Scott with 13. The Gator defensive line will need to step up despite the lack of outside pressure from OLB/JACK Ventrell Miller, who must sit out the first half of the game due to an unsportsmanlike penalty last week. Leading pass rusher DL Princely Umanmielen (21 QBP) needs to shake off a rather bad performance last week and cause some disruption in the Nole backfield. DL Gervon Dexter is right behind Umanmielen with 20 QBP and needs to go off in what will likely be his last game as a Gator.
- Stuff the run. The FSU offense is well balanced in the air and on the ground, but the Gator defense tends to do better when they limit the opposing ground game in the few times they have been able to do so. NT Desmond Watson needs a repeat of his performance against Texas A&M and South Carolina in order to make FSU one-dimensional.
- Keep the Nole offense in front of the defense. LB/STAR Amari Burney has 4 turnovers, 3 sacks, and 8 QB hurries. Burney will need to have a good day.
- Keep the Nole pass rush at bay. EDGE Jared Verse and EDGE Derrick McLendon each have 28 and 27 QBP each. The Gators are #11 in protecting the QB from sacks, as they have only allowed 12 sacks for 73 yards--with many of those coming from Richardson running out of the pocket prematurely.
- RUN. THE. BALL. The Gator offensive line has only truly been beaten once this year, by Vanderbilt. They are #15 in preventing tackles for loss, and the Gator rushing attack is #15 at 5.86 YPC, 209.3 YPG. Until last week against Vandy, the Florida rushing attack was a couple points ahead of FSU, so it is safe to assume that the FSU defense will target the Gator rushing attack by dropping to Cover-0/ Press-Man and make the Gators run or throw into a good Nole secondary.
- Rock star Anthony Richardson. When Richardson is on his game he has a passer rating of 154.3 (removing week 2 and 3 performances against Kentucky and USF). Removing the Eastern Washington game his passer rating is 132.7. He will need both a passer rating of 130 and 75 yards rushing in order for the Gators to win this game. Even then he is only 3-3 in such games due the defense having a bad day when he has a good one. The table below shows Richardson's 6 best games.

Opponent and ResultCompAttPctYDTDINTRATRush AttRush YDRush YPCRush TD
1
W Utah
17
24
70.80
168
0
0
129.6
11
106
9.6
3
4
L @ Tenn
24
44
54.50
453
2
1
151.5
17
62
3.6
2
7
L LSU
15
25
60.00
185
1
0
135.4
9
109
12.1
1
9
W @ TAMU
17
28
60.70
201
2
0
144.6
7
78
11.1
2
10
W vs USC
11
23
47.80
112
2
0
117.4
15
96
6.4
1
11
L @ Vandy
25
42
59.50
400
3
1
158.3
4
25
6.3
0
2022 totals
167
300
55.70
2351
14
8
139.5
93
609
6.5
9
Career totals
206
366
56.30
2907
21
14
134.3
151
1071
7.1
12
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is what the Noles are saying about the Gators:
- The Gator defense does not create a ton of havoc against good teams. They are correct. The Gator defense is far from elite and is ranked #56 in FEI metrics. FSU has beaten defenses with similar FEI: Miami (#51), Georgia Tech (#39), Boston College (#68), and Syracuse (#44). The Gators were blown out by similar teams Georgia, Tennessee, and LSU and only faring well against Utah with 3.25 TFL and 1 sack per game.
- The Gators struggle to stop the run. They are correct. Opposing offenses run for 4.45 YPC. FSU's running game has come on strong after three successive losses and has rushed for over 200 yards in six consecutive games. The Gators, on the other hand, have allowed over 200 rushing yards in four games this year, even though some of those are scattered throughout the season.
- Anthony Richardson is inconsistent. Oh boy are they correct. In Richardson's 4 worst games he has a passer rating of 93.4 and is averaging a turnover (INT or fumble) per game. He is only 2-2 in those games because USF and Missouri have FPI near 0.0 or below. The Noles have also noticed that Richardson is 0-4 when he attempts 30+ passes, which means they are definitely going to make him beat them with his arm and he will likely fail because he is not using his athleticism when the read-option or run-pass-option dictates a pass despite his superior EPA when running.
Opponent and ResultCompAttPctYDTDINTRATRush AttRush YDRush YPCRush TD
2
L vs UK
14
35
40
143
0
2
62.9
6
4
0.7
0
3
W vs USF
10
18
55.6
112
0
2
85.6
7
24
3.4
0
6
W vs Miz
8
14
57.1
66
1
1
106.0
5
41
8.2
0
8
L n UGA
18
37
48.6
271
1
0
119.1
11
19
1.7
0
2022 totals
167
300
55.7
2351
14
8
93.4
93
609
6.5
9
Career totals
206
366
56.3
2907
21
14
134.3
151
1071
7.1
12
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Anthony Richardson is #19 in rushing yards per carry at 6.6 YPC. This is #1 among QBs, with the next QB being Bo Nix. In terms of total yardage, Richardson is #98 in the nation, or #6 among QBs at 613 yards. He is only 120 yards behind the leader, Jayden Daniels of LSU.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Florida's offense certain *can* get the job done against the FSU defense, as long as Florida remains efficient, leans on the running game, and gets some explosive passes with Justin Shorter (or Daejon Reynolds steps up). FSU has a clear advantage when their offense is on the field. The Gators need to get the Noles off schedule, slow down the run game, make a stop on 3rd down (ha ha ha), and get a turnover. Easy.

 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
My statistical modeling shows the game outcome as follows:

QB-AvgComp/AttYDTDINTQBR
AR-Avg​
20.5/33​
284​
1.5​
0.5​
80.9​
JT-Avg​
14/13.5​
169​
1.5​
1.5​
79.6​


RB-RandAttYDAvgTD
Benson-Avg​
18​
111​
6.2​
1​
Johnson-Avg​
22​
100​
4.5​
1​

Stats​
Florida​
FSU​
Points​
31.2​
35.4​
Points Allowed Per Game​
27.3​
18​
Total Yards​
439.5​
473.7​
Yards Passing​
230.2​
256.7​
Yards Rushing​
209.3​
217​
Yards Allowed​
408.5​
293.4​
Pass Yards Allowed​
236.9​
155.4​
Rush Yards Allowed​
171.5​
138​
FPI (tot)​
7.69​
3.56​
FPI (P5)​
11.23​
5.25​
QBR-avg​
80.9​
79.6​
QB-PY-avg​
284​
169​
RB-rand​
111​
100​
E(P)​
37.9​
35.4​

Oddly enough, the statistical modeling shows Florida could win 37.9 to 35.4 if the FPI, FEI, QBR, and other advanced metrics line up. However, the statistical model does not account for late season growth which is currently trending in opposite directions.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The Gator receiving corps has been decimated by injuries. Florida WRs Ja'Quavion Fraziars, Xzavier Henderson, Justin Shorter, Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman and Marcus Burke will all miss Friday's game at FSU due to injury. Additionally, Ricky Pearsall is listed as questionable for the contest. The depth chart at receiver looks like this:
PositionStarterInjured
WR-XDaejon Reynolds (11 rec, 244 yd, 2 td)
Jordan Pouncey (2 rec, 4 yd, 0 td)
Xzavier Henderson (38 rec, 410 yd, 2 td)
Marcus Burke (4 rec, 30 yd, 0 td)
WR-ZCaleb Douglas (8 rec, 150 yd, 2 td)
Ja'Markis Weston (0 rec, 0 yd, 0 td)
Justin Shorter (29 rec, 577 yd, 2 td)
Ja'Quavion Fraziars (4 rec, 50 yd, 1 td)
WR-YKahleil Jackson (2 rec, 43 yd, 0 td)Ricky Pearsall (24 rec, 448 yd, 3 td)
Thai Chiaokhiao-Bowman (5 rec, 85 yd, 0 td)

At WR-X we have lost 63% of our production. At WR-Z we have lost 88% of our production. At WR-Y we have lost 82% of our production. This is not going to be pretty.

 
Last edited:

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I need add little, unfortunately:
With all we are missing I really feel we have no chance at ALL in this season finale.
I mean, it isn't as if FSU is unmotivated--at home after some bad years where losing to US has been the final "exclamation point" for several seasons in a row.
That and weak coaching have given us the edge even in our own mediocrity during that time.
I'll give it at least a quarter or so, but if this one heads south in a hurry...well, you know.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Key players to watch:
  • Gators
    • Sophomore QB Anthony Richardson may be playing in his last game ever, so he might as well lay it out on the line. He has quietly turned his season around with a passer rating near 160 over the last 4 games. His personal stats have not elevated the players around him as the Gators are 2-2 across that span, and the running game has regressed without him contributing to the rushing yardage.
    • Redshirt freshman WR Daejon Reynolds will make his first career start after stepping in for injured starters Xzavier Henderson and Arizona State transfer Ricky Pearsall.
    • Sophomore LB Derek Wingo has been waiting on his opportunity, which will be his first start since last year. With Ventrell Miller out for the first half, he will plenty of opportunities to show why he he should have seen more snaps. He will be splitting snaps with freshman Shemar James.
  • Seminoles
    • 5th-year senior QB Jordan Travis is statistically one of the best QBs in the nation with a career passer rating of 148.1. His season efficiency rating has steadily climbed from 80.5, 114.9, 128.6, and 148.9 to his current season average of 161.2. He is also a danger on the ground, but he has not had to run lately due to his excellent receiving corps.
    • Arizona State transfer WR Johnny Wilson is a 6'7", 235 matchup nightmare for the Gators.
    • Albany transfer DL Jared Verse has 7.5 sacks and is looking to add Richardson to his list of victimized QBs.
    • Oregon transfer RB Trey Benson is one of the nation's best running backs at 7.1 yards per carry.
    • South Carolina transfer DB Jammie Robinson is tied for most interceptions in the ACC. He was Freshman All-SEC at South Carolina.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Sigh...The only thing that is "hopeful and encouraging" about ANY of this is the simple fact that after generally stinking UP the place from the Coaching on down to the players for several seasons, these Noles have turned it around quickly here in 2022...Not sure if it is the kind of "foundational, through-and-through" transformation that carries forward into the "foreseeable future", but our Coaches are gonna have to somehow do some of that themselves if we are to show at least a spark of promise in 2023.
As for THIS one, um, no...
It will be a shock, possibly a stirring one if this damaged, short-handed Gator squad were to arise and somehow keep it CLOSE.
I'm just looking for a spirited, workmanlike team effort, at this point.
 

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