'Bout To Turn August...

[DRU2012]

...Is it too still too early to begin to focus on the upcoming season? I for one am getting antsy about what's ahead as we open up the season in just over a month--In fact, that first month itself is tougher, and more telling, than the last couple of years. If we were to manage to come out of THIS one 4-and-0 it would actually show us something about our team AND its chances this season. The 2nd and the 3rd will tell the story, I think. A&M at Kyle Field in week 2 is as tough an early season game as we've had in some time...but I'm with those who feel that we can afford to lose a close one there (long as we play fairly well), even though it is our SEC-opener, provided we win against the Volunteers the following week. It is Tennesee that is as close to a "make or break" early game that will shape our season as any I can remember.
Don't get me wrong: I'd love to see us come out of Sept. undefeated, and feel this team may well be capable of pulling it off, but TAMU is a tough venue, a team with young talent--and to us, overall, an unknown quantity. It would be no disaster or disgrace if we were to lose a tough battle there, but we should and MUST beat a Vol team that is less talented than us, and just as young. The 1st and 4th games are wins--Bowling Green a decent little tune-up and Kentucky a forgone conclusion, respectively. Coming out of September 3-and-1 under those circumstances keeps us on track for the "improved" season I expect for us in 2012; 2-and-2, though, could put us in a hole we never quite climb out of.
Meanwhile, in a summer characterized by projections-of-mediocrity across-the-board for UF from most writers and the national and regional publications, the "Featured Columnist" at B/R, among his latest "Bold Predictions", has us winning "no more than 6 games", struggling to manage that, and "Will Muschamp on the hotseat" going into next year.
What do y'all think--not only of this last, but of my comments in general?

 

[Escambia94]

The aTm game will be a great test of how much the Gators have changed from last year. Any talk of Muschamp in the hot seat is nonsense, unless UT and UK both beat Florida...very unlikely. If the Gators beat aTm soundly, we should win 7-8 games. If it is close, then 6-7 game win season is reasonable. If aTm beats Florida, then expect 6-6.

 

[DRU2012]

(I apologize for my intermittent participation at GE of late: Am out-of-town sporadically these last couple--and next couple--of weeks, but will monitor and participate here whenever I have practical access AND time to do so--AND of course will be back at it full time by mid-August, when it we all can start getting cranked for the season.)
Escambia94 As usual, you are more pessimistic ("realistic"? I hope not...) than I on this, E-: I truly believe that if we come out of the Kentucky game at 4-and-0 (especially if we beat aTm handily), we have a real good chance to go 9 wins at LEAST; If we lose to them in a close, hard-fought battle, we'll still look good for an 8-win season, imo. Oh well, I reserve the right to be wrong--and to admit it and revise my outlook based on what we actually see on-the-field during September.

 

[Escambia94]

Here is how I arrived at the conclusion:

• Sept 1, Bowling Green. 99% chance of a win. With a new OC and new offense, I expect this to start off slowly before things build up. If Muschamp has his way, he will want the offense to back off once the Gators get up a few scores. I have a feeling that Pease would rather pour it on, not to rub it in, but to test drive all facets of his new offense. If Muschamp wins that debate, expect the Gators to coast in the 4th, and we get no insight into how good the Gators will really look next week.
• Sept 8, at Texas A&M. 50% chance of a win. The past two years, the Gators were somewhat slow in weeks one and two. On top of that, this is the first foray into Kyle Field, with another hungry team that has a lot to prove as the new kids with a new coach...a head coach that built up Case Keenum from zero to hero and had his Houston team upsetting better teams.
• Sept 15, at Tennessee. 80% chance of win. Derek Dooley is probably a little warm in his creamsicle-colored seat. Upset the Gators, and his job is safe for a year. Lose to Florida at home, Georgia, Alabama, South Carolina, AND Missouri? Whoa. If I am Dooley and I had to pick one of those teams to beat, I would allocate all my resources to beating the weakest of the bunch, which is Florida right now. They lack the talent to beat Florida, but they may have the motivation to pull an upset.
• Sept 22, Kentucky. 90% chance of win at home.
• Sept 29, bye. 100% chance of not losing. Good time to look at the meat of the lineup and make any major roster shuffles before the injuries start piling on in October.
• Oct 6, LSU. 25% chance of a win. This game will be proof of Jeff Dillman's impact on strength and conditioning. If the Gators get pushed around the line of scrimmage, then the game is done. LSU and Alabama have the two largest lines of scrimmage in all of football. Funny. They both ended up as the two top teams last year playing for the championship. Coincidence?
• Oct 13, at Vanderbilt. 75% chance of win. Normally this would be over 85%, but we can see that Vandy is capable of surging to scare big opponents. They are a few stars away from finishing off big opponents. Florida learned its lesson last year.
• October 20, South Carolina. This game was winnable last year. Come on! Contain the stinking scrambling quarterback, defense! 50% chance of a win, and it makes me sick to type that.
• Oct 27, Georgia (in Jacksonville). 40% chance of win. No excuses. Florida lost by 4 stinking points, and looked stupid handing Richt a job extension.
• Nov 3, Missouri. 60% chance of win. By this point, the Gators should be fired up and the offense clicking, barring injury.
• Nov 10, Louisiana-Lafayette. 90% chance of win. No excuses.
• Nov 17, Jacksonville State. 90% chance of win.
• Nov 24, SWAC (School With A Circus). 30% chance of win. Just because I do not want to be disappointed.

That puts the Gators as 8 wins. aTm will be the early test. LSU will be the midterm review. Georgia will be the final exam part 1. As much as I am annoyed with SWAC right now, I am focusing on Mizzou. Win the SEC games, and fight for better bowl game position.

 

[DRU2012]

Don't feel even YOU have the empirical data (ie. knowledge concerning the talent on-the-field THIS season, how they'll perform individually and as a team) to be especially confident of your "percentages of likelihood" here, E-, for one thing--and even as presented, THEY don't necessarily add up to "7-or-8 wins". For now, it's ALL speculative opinion, and we'll just have to reserve judgement, wait-'n-see.
Again, you may well turn out to get it right--but at this point, it's more about what each of us is comfortable hoping or NOT hoping for. Excited or afraid, it's a question of whether hope and enthusiasm are worth more or less than self-protection, I suppose. Don't get me wrong: I've been there. I just have this feeling we've turned the corner, we will begin to see the results of that this season, and even if the prospect of actually achieving of that reality is just "50-50", I'm ready to go in on the positive side of that equation at the start this year.

 

[Escambia94]

Nope. No empirical data. Just rationalizing a guess. What I was trying to say is that you can look at this schedule and pick out the key games that will give us an idea of where the Gators are this year--same as the past two years, or on the road to improvement. The numbers do not add up to 7 or 8 wins. They add up to anywhere between 5 and 9 wins, so it is not a newsflash. It just shows my opinion of how the Gators are stacking up against the rest of the schedule.