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The big shakeup this week hit Penn State, as they lost to Iowa. Some conference pictures are extremely clear, and others aren’t. The title game, of course, could still swing wildly, as we saw last year. And just projecting the 10 BCS participants (regardless of who goes where) is no easy task. See below for how we feel this weekend’s action will impact the BCS...
These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:
BCS Championship:
James: Florida v. Texas. I think Texas recovers to win the Big 12, and is currently the highest-ranked one loss team in the BCS. Penn State’s loss all but guarantees this matchup is Big 12 v SEC, though some games (Missouri v. Big 12 South, UF @ FSU, etc.) could line up to give USC a shot.
Chris: Florida v. Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma jumps both Texas and Florida in the BCS ranking. My theory is based on the fact that the current difference between Oklahoma at #5 and Texas at #3 is only .0354 points, and that is due in part to the computer rankings. Oklahoma has yet to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, and Texas has no one else of merit left. If there is a 3-way tie in the Big-12 South, then the tiebreaker is final placing in the BCS ranking. Florida, on the same token, has a tougher schedule with South Carolina and Florida State on the radar. They will also have a conference championship game against a possible #1 team, and Texas will not be in there championship game.
Rose Bowl:
James: USC v. Penn State. In my latest scenario, this game is entirely determined due to the auto-bid rules. How boring.
Chris: USC v. Penn State. Traditional Rose Bowl matchup. USC should take the Pac-10 title, as I don’t see Oregon State winning out their remaining three games. I also don’t see Penn State losing in Happy Valley to Michigan State.
Fiesta Bowl:
James: Ohio State v. Oklahoma. If Ohio State loses another game, we’ll either see a second non-BCS get a bid (Boise State, but Ball State if Boise slips up), or some BCS league sneak in a second candidate to the top 14. The top 14 is SEC and Big 12 heavy right now, and only 2 teams from each conference are eligible. But Ohio State makes like Western Michigan and beats Illinois, and do I even have to mention the Michigan game? They’ll win out and go somewhere, might as well be here as at least one of these teams has been in this bowl 5 of the last 6 years. Also, this assures one of these teams will break recent trends and actually win a bowl game.
Chris: Texas v. Ohio State. If Texas barely misses out of the championship picture, and Oklahoma is the team that will claim the #1 spot, then Texas would be the easy Big-12 replacement pick for the Fiesta Bowl. As the retainers of the first at-large selection, the Fiesta Bowl would be delighted to pick an Ohio State team that travels well. I stated last week that Illinois would beat Ohio State, but after Illinois’ loss to Western Michigan last week, I believe Ohio State will win out.
Sugar Bowl:
James: Alabama v West Virginia. Losers of conference championship games rarely get a BCS bid. However, Alabama, in my scenario, gets chosen as the top at-large because of their rabid, and recently down-trodden, fan base- and Georgia is the only other realistic SEC candidate, which (for now) is clearly below Alabama in the national picture. Also, does Rich Rodriguez approach Brett Favre’s level of getting mentioned at a game he’s nowhere near?
Chris: Alabama v Utah. Alabama would be the easy replacement choice for losing Florida to the BCS championship game. There is no other eligible team that will have the credentials of a 12-1 Alabama program. The Sugar Bowl committee will then have a tough choice between an undefeated non-BCS team or a two-loss Big East champion. I think they would be better off with Utah than Cincinnati, so they’ll be my pick. This happens unless West Virginia finds a way to sneak away with the Big East crown.
Orange Bowl:
James: North Carolina v. Utah. UNC gets the ACC’s auto-bid, and Utah will be an automatic qualifier as the MWC champion. Utah gets chosen as the last at-large, as no one ever selects a non-BCS before they are forced to.
Chris: North Carolina v. Cincinnati. North Carolina remains my pick from the ACC due to their good win against Georgia Tech last weekend. I still think they will take down Florida State in the conference championship game. I think Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh in two weeks at home, and they would hold any tiebreaker over West Virginia. They will not be a wanted commodity and thus will be the last at-large pick.
Thoughts?
To see this article, click here.
These are not necessarily what we want to happen, but what we think will happen:
BCS Championship:
James: Florida v. Texas. I think Texas recovers to win the Big 12, and is currently the highest-ranked one loss team in the BCS. Penn State’s loss all but guarantees this matchup is Big 12 v SEC, though some games (Missouri v. Big 12 South, UF @ FSU, etc.) could line up to give USC a shot.
Chris: Florida v. Oklahoma. I think Oklahoma jumps both Texas and Florida in the BCS ranking. My theory is based on the fact that the current difference between Oklahoma at #5 and Texas at #3 is only .0354 points, and that is due in part to the computer rankings. Oklahoma has yet to play Texas Tech and Oklahoma State, and Texas has no one else of merit left. If there is a 3-way tie in the Big-12 South, then the tiebreaker is final placing in the BCS ranking. Florida, on the same token, has a tougher schedule with South Carolina and Florida State on the radar. They will also have a conference championship game against a possible #1 team, and Texas will not be in there championship game.
Rose Bowl:
James: USC v. Penn State. In my latest scenario, this game is entirely determined due to the auto-bid rules. How boring.
Chris: USC v. Penn State. Traditional Rose Bowl matchup. USC should take the Pac-10 title, as I don’t see Oregon State winning out their remaining three games. I also don’t see Penn State losing in Happy Valley to Michigan State.
Fiesta Bowl:
James: Ohio State v. Oklahoma. If Ohio State loses another game, we’ll either see a second non-BCS get a bid (Boise State, but Ball State if Boise slips up), or some BCS league sneak in a second candidate to the top 14. The top 14 is SEC and Big 12 heavy right now, and only 2 teams from each conference are eligible. But Ohio State makes like Western Michigan and beats Illinois, and do I even have to mention the Michigan game? They’ll win out and go somewhere, might as well be here as at least one of these teams has been in this bowl 5 of the last 6 years. Also, this assures one of these teams will break recent trends and actually win a bowl game.
Chris: Texas v. Ohio State. If Texas barely misses out of the championship picture, and Oklahoma is the team that will claim the #1 spot, then Texas would be the easy Big-12 replacement pick for the Fiesta Bowl. As the retainers of the first at-large selection, the Fiesta Bowl would be delighted to pick an Ohio State team that travels well. I stated last week that Illinois would beat Ohio State, but after Illinois’ loss to Western Michigan last week, I believe Ohio State will win out.
Sugar Bowl:
James: Alabama v West Virginia. Losers of conference championship games rarely get a BCS bid. However, Alabama, in my scenario, gets chosen as the top at-large because of their rabid, and recently down-trodden, fan base- and Georgia is the only other realistic SEC candidate, which (for now) is clearly below Alabama in the national picture. Also, does Rich Rodriguez approach Brett Favre’s level of getting mentioned at a game he’s nowhere near?
Chris: Alabama v Utah. Alabama would be the easy replacement choice for losing Florida to the BCS championship game. There is no other eligible team that will have the credentials of a 12-1 Alabama program. The Sugar Bowl committee will then have a tough choice between an undefeated non-BCS team or a two-loss Big East champion. I think they would be better off with Utah than Cincinnati, so they’ll be my pick. This happens unless West Virginia finds a way to sneak away with the Big East crown.
Orange Bowl:
James: North Carolina v. Utah. UNC gets the ACC’s auto-bid, and Utah will be an automatic qualifier as the MWC champion. Utah gets chosen as the last at-large, as no one ever selects a non-BCS before they are forced to.
Chris: North Carolina v. Cincinnati. North Carolina remains my pick from the ACC due to their good win against Georgia Tech last weekend. I still think they will take down Florida State in the conference championship game. I think Cincinnati beats Pittsburgh in two weeks at home, and they would hold any tiebreaker over West Virginia. They will not be a wanted commodity and thus will be the last at-large pick.
Thoughts?
To see this article, click here.
