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2022 Heisman/ NFL QB Tracker

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
My top Heisman candidates are QBs with highest QBR from large programs. If I could create a metric for adding in non-QBs I would, but I am taking the easy way out and only counting stats for QBs to win the Heisman. Here are the leaders for week 1:
  1. Stetson Bennett 25/31 368 YD 11.9 YPA 2 TD 0 INT 97.3 QBR
  2. Bryce Young 18/28 195 YD 7.0 YPA 5 TD 0 INT/ 5 RUSH 100 YD 20.0 YPA 1 TD 96.0 QBR
  3. Caleb Williams 19/22 249 YD 11.3 YPA 2 TD 0 INT / 6 RUSH 68 YD 0 TD 95.2 QBR
  4. Anthony Richardson 17/24 168 YD 7.0 YPA 0 TD 0 INT/ 11 RUSH 106 YD 9.6 YPA 3 TD 94.8 QBR
  5. CJ Stroud 24/34 223 YD 6.6 YPA 2 TD 0 INT 89.0 QBR
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
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Hard to miss the amplified buzz surrounding AR since the final gun Saturday night in the Swamp.
But no matter where you rank him, when or if subsequent play sees him rise or fall in "The Heisman Sweepstakes", for us the pertinent point is that he's the trending "hot commodity" among NFL scouts rating the handful of top prospects for the next Pro Draft.
IF he stays healthy, Anthony may or may NOT ultimately top the other Heisman candidates, but we best "Enjoy him while we've GOT him"...because it looks like Anthony will likely only be with us now the rest of this season.
 

DRU2012

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Even without the week 5 stats, Richardson is tied for 10th in the Heisman race.
Well, if it weren't for weeks 2 and 3 he'd be a lot higher on that list, clearly.
He is starting to actually not just "live UP to the hype", but to exceed it.
I thought he was out of it entirely, and I doubt that the circumstances of "real world imperfection" and the pending schedule bodes well for that drastically changing, but at the very least he appears to be in the process of resurrecting his high pro-draft prospects.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Well, if it weren't for weeks 2 and 3 he'd be a lot higher on that list, clearly.
He is starting to actually not just "live UP to the hype", but to exceed it.
I thought he was out of it entirely, and I doubt that the circumstances of "real world imperfection" and the pending schedule bodes well for that drastically changing, but at the very least he appears to be in the process of resurrecting his high pro-draft prospects.
You are forgetting that NFL scouts look only at measurable skill and physical attributes, and AR has both.
 

DRU2012

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You are forgetting that NFL scouts look only at measurable skill and physical attributes, and AR has both.
Well, if I am, I'm not the only one.
In skimming across YouTube. Twitter etc and sampling a wide range of Gator sites and the views of both hosts and contributing fans yesterday post-game I noted a distinct prevalence of a position that makes similar assumptions about AR's supposed "reaquisition of lost status" among pro scouts...
Actually, that isn't precisely the case; the TRUTH is more like a fairly even split in such opinion...
To wit: some say he has somehow reestablished that primacy, while others somehow have come to feel there is now a growing likelihood that AR might stay anothdr season after all. Perhaps a further expansion and highlighting of your insights into the actual, unemotional/"measurable physical skills" approach that you say governs NFL pro-scouting analysis is in order here, E--.
I for one would welcome said expansion.
What matters most to me is a frank and realistic, fact-based basis for how our Coaches should (and frankly I think already WILL) proceed from
here.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here are the NFL prospect rankings and draft projections. I think Richardson is overvalued here and will likely return to Florida and play himself into a top-5 position for the 2024 draft. Mel Kiper does not have Richardson on his board.

1. HOU: CJ Stroud QB - Ohio St
2. CAR: Bryce Young QB - Bama
3. SEA: Will Anderson Edge - Alabama
4. ATL: Jalen Carter DT - Georgia
5. WSH: Will Levis QB - Kentucky
6. NYJ: Paris Johnson Jr OT - Ohio St
7. NYG: Cam Smith CB - South Carolina
8. CHI: Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Ohio St
9. PHI (via NO): Myles Murphy Edge - Clemson
10. DET: Noah Sewell LB - Oregon
11. HOU (via CLE): Jordan Addison WR - USC
12. PIT: Peter Skoronski OT - N'Western
13. NE: Quenton Johnson WR - TCU
14. IND: Kelee Ringo CB - Georgia
15. MIA (via SF): Bijan Robinson RB - Texas
16. SEA (via DEN): Anthony Richardson QB - Florida
17. CIN: Michael Mayer TE - Notre Dame
18. TEN: BJ Ojulari Edge - LSU
19. MIN: Bryan Bresee DT - Clemson
20. JAC: Josh Downs WR - North Carolina
21. DAL: Kayshon Boutte WR - LSU
22. ARI: Isaiah Foskey Edge - Notre Dame
23. LV: Broderick Jones OT - Georgia
24. GB: Marvin Mims WR - Oklahoma
25. DET (via LAR): Nolan Smith Edge - Georgia
26. BAL: Clark Phillips III CB - Utah
27. LAC: Trenton Simpson LB - Clemson
28. PHI: Jordan Battle S - Alabama
29. BUF: O'Cyrus Torrence G - Florida
30. TB: Tyler Van Dyke QB - Miami
31. KC: Henry To'oTo'o LB - Alabama
 
Last edited:

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Here are the NFL prospect rankings and draft projections. I think Richardson is overvalued here and will likely return to Florida and play himself into a top-5 position for the 2024 draft. Mel Kiper does not have Richardson on his board.

1. HOU: CJ Stroud QB - Ohio St
2. CAR: Bryce Young QB - Bama
3. SEA: Will Anderson Edge - Alabama
4. ATL: Jalen Carter DT - Georgia
5. WSH: Will Levis QB - Kentucky
6. NYJ: Paris Johnson Jr OT - Ohio St
7. NYG: Cam Smith CB - South Carolina
8. CHI: Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR - Ohio St
9. PHI (via NO): Myles Murphy Edge - Clemson
10. DET: Noah Sewell LB - Oregon
11. HOU (via CLE): Jordan Addison WR - USC
12. PIT: Peter Skoronski OT - N'Western
13. NE: Quenton Johnson WR - TCU
14. IND: Kelee Ringo CB - Georgia
15. MIA (via SF): Bijan Robinson RB - Texas
16. SEA (via DEN): Anthony Richardson QB - Florida
17. CIN: Michael Mayer TE - Notre Dame
18. TEN: BJ Ojulari Edge - LSU
19. MIN: Bryan Bresee DT - Clemson
20. JAC: Josh Downs WR - North Carolina
21. DAL: Kayshon Boutte WR - LSU
22. ARI: Isaiah Foskey Edge - Notre Dame
23. LV: Broderick Jones OT - Georgia
24. GB: Marvin Mims WR - Oklahoma
25. DET (via LAR): Nolan Smith Edge - Georgia
26. BAL: Clark Phillips III CB - Utah
27. LAC: Trenton Simpson LB - Clemson
28. PHI: Jordan Battle S - Alabama
29. BUF: O'Cyrus Torrence G - Florida
30. TB: Tyler Van Dyke QB - Miami
31. KC: Henry To'oTo'o LB - Alabama
Interesting in several ways.
First, the fickle "winds of hype":
Anthony's precipitous drop--result of 2 poor outings, his 2nd and 3rd in his FIRST YEAR as the starter? I recall Kyper (whom I have ALWAYS myself thought was HIMSELF "way over-rated") being among all those drooling over him after Utah. Here's hoping AR himself learns from all of this (or, even better, never took it too much to heart in the first place)...Before NIL etc, a kid like this might well have more or less HAD to "grab onto the train as it rolled by", gotten ahold of the first-round cash soon as it was there "for the sake if his family" and all; Now that's neither the smartest play, nor is he necessarily in the ridiculously tight squeeze a "scholar athlete" used to routinely find himself in--where so many AROUND him is cashing IN on his skills and fame. He does seem to be taking it all in comfortable stride, so perhaps there IS a decent chance that patience, wisdom and his own longterm best-interests will win out here, and he will stay one more year.
Not sure how that will affect the current and immediate state of our recruiting--but frankly, in this case at least I believe he is such a standout talent that what both he AND we gain in his staying one more season transcends whatever confusion that may ripple outward as a result.
Another interesting (sort of side-) point raised by the list above is the inclusion of a 2nd name from our starting roster among those pen Ikeda in fir first-round draft status.
O-lineman Torrance is no doubt a very good player, on what is more and more turning out to be a strong part of our blossoming offensive squad, but I guess he AND they have to some extent been overshadowed somewhat by the all the attention showered earlier on Richardson.
Here's a vote for more recognition for their overall contribution to our recognized improvement--and a general tempering (for the moment at least) of "early expectations" for Anthony. Let's give him the time and room to become what we all SEE is within his potential to achieve here.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Kiper still has a high rating for AR, but he does not consider him on the table for the 2023 draft. Make no mistake, if you ignore the draft class, AR is still on top of many draft boards due to raw skill. He still throws the best ball. He is still in the top 5 for precision, but not accuracy. Accuracy can be honed in the NFL, but precision has to already be there. The ability to read defenses is split into two camps now: spread/ pro-style and zone read/ RPO/ spread option. It just so happens that Napier’s offense has both, and AR is learning the spread / pro-style. Another year under Napier will give him experience with both types.
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
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Kiper still has a high rating for AR, but he does not consider him on the table for the 2023 draft. Make no mistake, if you ignore the draft class, AR is still on top of many draft boards due to raw skill. He still throws the best ball. He is still in the top 5 for precision, but not accuracy. Accuracy can be honed in the NFL, but precision has to already be there. The ability to read defenses is split into two camps now: spread/ pro-style and zone read/ RPO/ spread option. It just so happens that Napier’s offense has both, and AR is learning the spread / pro-style. Another year under Napier will give him experience with both types.
OK...I follow most of this and find it both insightful and practical...However, I am still unclear on the distinction between "precision" and "accuracy"; can you further explain/delineate?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Richardson has great accuracy. 9 times out of 10 he will put the ball in the same spot. Unfortunately he puts the ball in the wrong spot 40% of the time. Precision comes with training and practice outside of camp. Many QBs have a personal trainer or they attend a camp. AR goes to Denny Thompson at Six Points, Jacksonville. Accuracy comes from learning the play book—Napier’s play book. Richardson often completes a pass to the wrong receiver in a high-low concept, or he fails to look at the check-down. That accuracy comes from working with Ryan O’Hara in practice, or Napier himself in game days. If AR left UF today, he could gain accuracy by working with an NFL quarterback coach.
3D668DF4-9984-42C8-B365-E46E5188A5A4.png
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Richardson has great accuracy. 9 times out of 10 he will put the ball in the same spot. Unfortunately he puts the ball in the wrong spot 40% of the time. Precision comes with training and practice outside of camp. Many QBs have a personal trainer or they attend a camp. AR goes to Denny Thompson at Six Points, Jacksonville. Accuracy comes from learning the play book—Napier’s play book. Richardson often completes a pass to the wrong receiver in a high-low concept, or he fails to look at the check-down. That accuracy comes from working with Ryan O’Hara in practice, or Napier himself in game days. If AR left UF today, he could gain accuracy by working with an NFL quarterback coach.
View attachment 713
Ooohhh...! I see. Thanks.
The kind of thing portrayed in movies and TV shows like Friday Night Lights, etc, where we see these high-school level QBs practicing throwing the ball through swinging tires and the like in front of their modest homes...We are talking about a more formalized and relentless effort to make these activities "second nature" through repetitive habit, of course.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is the updated 2023 NFL draft board from CBS:
  1. C.J. Stroud QB
  2. Bryce Young QB
  3. Will Anderson Jr. EDGE
  4. Trenton Simpson LB
  5. Olumuyiwa Fashanu OL
  6. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR
  7. Bryan Bresee DL
  8. Peter Skoronski OL
  9. Anthony Richardson QB
  10. Will Levis QB
  11. Myles Murphy EDGE
  12. Kelee Ringo CB
  13. Cam Smith CB
  14. Michael Mayer TE
  15. Antonio Johnson S
  16. Eli Ricks CB
  17. Jalen Carter DL
  18. Anton Harrison OL
  19. Jordan Addison WR
  20. Paris Johnson Jr. OL
  21. Broderick Jones OL
  22. Rashee Rice WR
  23. Felix Anudike-Uzomah EDGE
  24. Cade Stover TE
  25. Jared Verse DE
  26. DJ Turner DB
  27. Parker Washington WR
  28. Michael Penix Jr. QB
  29. Matthew Bergeron OL
  30. Devon Witherspoon DB
  31. Kingsley Eguakun OL
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
So what do YOU think, E--?
There is a lot of back'n'forth out there about whether AR "goes or stays" for 1 more season.
I tend to think he SHOULD stay, but that money will win out...Staying COULD pay off--but it's a gamble: any number of scenarios could result in its backfiring. The only reason there's still a chance he stays is NIL; a real Heisman-run then ensuing kicks his draft status and resulting value WAY up. Let's assume that under these coaches and with a steadily improving team around him, that's a real possibility, even a likelihood perhaps, and it all turns out for the best.
But of course there are no guarantees.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Remember that these draft boards go out for months before the deadline for declaring for the draft. I do not think AR will declare for the 2023, even if his stock goes up.
 

DRU2012

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Remember that these draft boards go out for months before the deadline for declaring for the draft. I do not think AR will declare for the 2023, even if his stock goes up.
Hope you are right...either way, appreciate your clarifying.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Hope you are right...either way, appreciate your clarifying.
Do you remember the season-long Heisman and NFL draft hype on Patrick Mahomes and Mitch Trubisky? Neither do I. We are spoiled by hype trains as Gator fans. Richardson will still get hype even if we lose every game the rest of the season, not that I believe that will happen. Richardson would need to spike the ball on the ground 50 times a game for the rest of the season in order to disappear from the NFL draft boards because he has the raw tools of size, speed, agility, and power.

Richardson is going to come back in 2023. He is a Gainesville native whose NIL stock is only going to rise even if his NFL stock remains the same.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I trust your level-headed, dispassionate "take", and the way you gather, analyze abd interpret the numbers in coming to your conclusions, E--...
So I am comfortable in trusting them NOW:
SO AR is coming back in 2022 after all, and we can build on that going forward from here.
That STILL leaves the D...
We may be able to OUTSCORE folks next season, but we will have to seriously upgrade the DEfense for 2023 if we hope to begin to move towards "ELITE"-status, no?
We need some FIVE-stars over on GHAT side of the ball...and meanwhile, for now we will HA E TO SOMEHOWearn to apply "PROPER TECHNIQUE", as I say, if we are to win some games before then--Starting with THIS one, OK?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The official SEC QB Power Ranking Tracker shows that Anthony Richardson has bounced between being the #2 QB and #9 QB in the conference. Here is the power ranking in week 7 (highest ranking in parentheses):
  1. Bryce Young, Alabama (1)
  2. Hendon Hooker, Tennessee (2)
  3. Stetson Bennett, Georgia (2)
  4. Will Rogers, Miss State (4)
  5. KJ Jefferson, Arkansas (3)
  6. Will Levis, Kentucky (4)
  7. Jaxson Dart, Ole Piss (8)
  8. Jayden Daniels, LSU (6)
  9. Anthony Richardson, Florida (2)
  10. Spencer Rattler, USC (2)
  11. Haynes King, aTm (10)
  12. Robby Ashford, Auburn (12)
  13. Brady Cook, Missouri (11)
  14. AJ Swann, Vandy (13)

The QBs with the most variability are Anthony Richardson and Spencer Rattler.
 

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