The first-round College Football Playoff game on December 20, 2025, features a rematch between the No. 6 seed Ole Miss Rebels (11-1) and the No. 11 seed Tulane Green Wave (11-2) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi. This contest marks the inaugural playoff appearance for both programs. The teams previously met in Week 4 of the regular season on September 20, 2025, with Ole Miss securing a decisive 45-10 victory, outgaining Tulane 548-282 yards and limiting their opponent to minimal offensive production until late in the game.
Ole Miss enters as a substantial favorite, with predictive models assigning approximately an 84% probability of advancement. The Rebels boast a potent offense led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has excelled since taking over as starter, complemented by a balanced attack featuring running back Kewan Lacy. Their defense ranks among the SEC’s stronger units in passing efficiency and scoring prevention. However, significant disruption stems from the departure of head coach Lane Kiffin, who accepted the position at LSU on November 30, 2025, and will not coach in the postseason. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been elevated to interim (and subsequently permanent) head coach, introducing potential adjustments in scheme and motivation dynamics.
Tulane, champions of the American Athletic Conference, has demonstrated resilience throughout the season, overcoming early setbacks to earn an automatic bid as one of the top Group of Five conference winners. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff provides dual-threat capability, supported by a robust offensive line and a defense that has improved markedly since the initial encounter. Head coach Jon Sumrall’s leadership has been instrumental, characterized by a feisty, disciplined approach that emphasizes toughness and execution. Notably, Sumrall accepted the head coaching position at the University of Florida on November 30, 2025, yet has committed to guiding Tulane through its playoff run. He has adeptly managed dual responsibilities, navigating the early signing period and transfer portal for both programs—securing commitments without flipping recruits from Tulane—while maintaining focus on preparations for this game. This balancing act underscores Sumrall’s professional acumen and competitive intensity.
For Tulane to prevail, several key elements must align. An upset would require exploiting any transitional vulnerabilities at Ole Miss under new leadership, forcing turnovers, and controlling possession through effective rushing and time of possession. Improved performance from Retzlaff—limited to 56 passing yards in the September matchup—along with defensive stops against Ole Miss’s high-scoring offense could create opportunities. Historical precedents in rematches suggest variability, as teams evolve over months, and Tulane’s late-season momentum, including a strong conference championship performance, positions them for a competitive outing.
Nevertheless, Tulane is unlikely to win due to the substantial talent disparity between an SEC powerhouse and a Group of Five contender, compounded by the home-field advantage in a hostile environment. The earlier 35-point margin, while not fully predictive given personnel and coaching changes, reflects Ole Miss’s superior depth and athleticism. Predictive analytics and betting lines heavily favor the Rebels, anticipating their progression to face No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal.
This matchup highlights the expanded playoff’s potential for compelling narratives, including coaching transitions and rematches, while affirming the challenges faced by lower-seeded teams against established programs. Even with a defensive minded interim head coach Pete Golding, Ole Miss likely wins handily, 27-14. Jon Sumrall will no doubt make it a game, and can hold his chest high as he moves on to Florida and leaving Tulane in a much better place than before.
Ole Miss enters as a substantial favorite, with predictive models assigning approximately an 84% probability of advancement. The Rebels boast a potent offense led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who has excelled since taking over as starter, complemented by a balanced attack featuring running back Kewan Lacy. Their defense ranks among the SEC’s stronger units in passing efficiency and scoring prevention. However, significant disruption stems from the departure of head coach Lane Kiffin, who accepted the position at LSU on November 30, 2025, and will not coach in the postseason. Defensive coordinator Pete Golding has been elevated to interim (and subsequently permanent) head coach, introducing potential adjustments in scheme and motivation dynamics.
Tulane, champions of the American Athletic Conference, has demonstrated resilience throughout the season, overcoming early setbacks to earn an automatic bid as one of the top Group of Five conference winners. Quarterback Jake Retzlaff provides dual-threat capability, supported by a robust offensive line and a defense that has improved markedly since the initial encounter. Head coach Jon Sumrall’s leadership has been instrumental, characterized by a feisty, disciplined approach that emphasizes toughness and execution. Notably, Sumrall accepted the head coaching position at the University of Florida on November 30, 2025, yet has committed to guiding Tulane through its playoff run. He has adeptly managed dual responsibilities, navigating the early signing period and transfer portal for both programs—securing commitments without flipping recruits from Tulane—while maintaining focus on preparations for this game. This balancing act underscores Sumrall’s professional acumen and competitive intensity.
For Tulane to prevail, several key elements must align. An upset would require exploiting any transitional vulnerabilities at Ole Miss under new leadership, forcing turnovers, and controlling possession through effective rushing and time of possession. Improved performance from Retzlaff—limited to 56 passing yards in the September matchup—along with defensive stops against Ole Miss’s high-scoring offense could create opportunities. Historical precedents in rematches suggest variability, as teams evolve over months, and Tulane’s late-season momentum, including a strong conference championship performance, positions them for a competitive outing.
Nevertheless, Tulane is unlikely to win due to the substantial talent disparity between an SEC powerhouse and a Group of Five contender, compounded by the home-field advantage in a hostile environment. The earlier 35-point margin, while not fully predictive given personnel and coaching changes, reflects Ole Miss’s superior depth and athleticism. Predictive analytics and betting lines heavily favor the Rebels, anticipating their progression to face No. 3 Georgia in the Sugar Bowl quarterfinal.
This matchup highlights the expanded playoff’s potential for compelling narratives, including coaching transitions and rematches, while affirming the challenges faced by lower-seeded teams against established programs. Even with a defensive minded interim head coach Pete Golding, Ole Miss likely wins handily, 27-14. Jon Sumrall will no doubt make it a game, and can hold his chest high as he moves on to Florida and leaving Tulane in a much better place than before.
