Re-evaluating the coaching search 2022

[Escambia94]

Heading into week 2 of the 2024 season and coming off a disastrous season opener, Billy Napier is now 11-15 at the University of Florida and is on pace to have the worst coaching record in the history of the football program with three back-to-back losing seasons. It is natural to ask what went wrong and whether Scott Stricklin should have hired him. First, let us re-evaluate the realistic candidates that were available in November 2021. Based on the evidence we had in November 2021, Billy Napier was the best hire. Luke Fickell had a better winning record at Cincinatti but it was well known that he was not going to leave the Midwest. Mario Cristobal's record was only slightly worst than Napier's, but it was understood that he would never coach at Florida as a Miami alumnus. Retaining Dan Mullen was the next best option, but he was already checked out. James Franklin was locked in at his alma mater of Penn State. Kalen DeBoer was an unknown at Fresno State with no ties to the SEC and a lower winning record. Lane Kiffin's name will always be on these lists, but the boosters were not ready for the 2021 version of Lane Kiffin. Not that it was a factor, but it is important to note that Kiffin's ex-wife, Layla Reaves, is the daughter of Gator Great John Reaves.

Given what we knew at the time, Billy Napier was the right hire. Scott Stricklin should not be chastized for making what he thought was the best hire. As a fanbase we need to ask what went wrong and what needs to change in order to make the next hire a success?

Name	School	Salary	Buyout	W	L	Total WL%	Current WL%
Luke Fickell	Cincinnati	$3.40	$4.00	51	21	70.83%	76.27%
Billy Napier	Louisiana	$2.00	$3.00	37	12	75.51%	75.51%
Mario Cristobal	Oregon	$2.7	$9.00	62	60	50.82%	72.92%
Dan Mullen	Florida	$7.60	$12.00	103	60	63.19%	70.83%
James Franklin	Penn State	$5.50	$4.00	90	47	65.69%	67.35%
Kalen DeBoer	Fresno State	$1.35	$1.50	79	8	90.80%	66.67%
Lane Kiffin	Ole Miss	$4.50	$0.00	74	41	64.35%	65.00%
Mel Tucker	Michigan State	$6.00	$6.00	16	13	55.17%	64.71%
Jamey Chadwell	Coastal Carolina	$0.85	$0.00	87	54	61.70%	58.70%
Jeff Hafley	Boston College	$3.00	$0.00	12	9	57.41%	57.14%
Brian Kelly	Notre Dame	~$5	~$5	263	96	63.5%	56.52%
Chip Kelly	UCLA	$5.8	$1.5	81	41	66.39%	50.72%
Mark Stoops	Kentucky	$5.00	1.75	56	63	47.06%	47.06%
Jeff Lebby	Ole Miss (OC)	$1.20	$0.00	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Joe Brady	Carolina Panthers (OC)	$1.00	$0.00	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

 

[Leakfan12]

Plus Kiffin pissed off Gator nation with his comments as UT coach. That didn't help.

 

[Escambia94]

I am in the minority that believes Napier is a good coach, but not at the SEC level. I think he will do well at JMU, which is currently in 1st place in Napier's old division, the Sun Belt. It also helps Napier that Bob Chesney is basically handing him a championship caliber team. It will be interesting to see how Chesney thrives at UCLA, because he came up from Division II and went 3-3 in the playoffs before moving up to Division I and going 2-3 in the playoffs through the Sun Belt. We will get to compare Napier and Chesney as they essentially swap roles. I think Napier will take JMU to the Sun Belt championship and possibly the playoffs.

We can all see in hindsight that he is not cut out for the SEC, but if we got into a time machine and looked back at the field as of November 2021 he was a good candidate. Keep in mind that what is not on the chart below is NIL 1.0. At the time, Louisiana had a better NIL 1.0 plan than most, if not all, the other schools on this list.

Luke Fickell. All over social media, Gator fans were clamoring for Luke Fickell. Look at his trajectory: he waited another year to leave Cincinnati for Wisconsin, where he now has a losing record. He was 57-18 at Cincinnati, an AAC school. He is currently 17-21 at Wisconsin--basically the same as Napier at Florida after 3 years. Also consider geography. I predict that Fickell will never coach in a school outside the Midwest.

Mario Cristobal was never coming to Florida. He has always hated Florida, so anyone who thought he would consider this job is not paying attention to history. Cristoball is the benchmark for comparison to Napier, and it appears that Cristobal was the better coach.

James Franklin would have been a better candidate than Napier, but he was not going to leave his dream job as a Pennsylvania kid. Even in 2025, his 104-45 record is remarkable. Penn State officials were either silly to fire him at 3-3 this season or there is something else going on behind the scenes that we do not know about.

Kalen DeBoer did not seem interested in leaving that part of the country until the Alabama position opened up in 2024. In 2021, it made sense for him to pick Washington over any other school because it was open and it was in a part of the country that he liked.

Lane Kiffin, believe it or not, had a worse winning record than Billy Napier in 2021. People forget that Kiffin did not really start to put things together until 2023. Even then, he may have been the best candidate in 2025, but just as it was in 2021 there were no true home run, coach of the year hires except maybe Mel Tucker.

Mel Tucker...he would have been a home run hire if he had not sexually harassed a Michigan State student. The next closest home run hire would have been Brian Kelly.

Brian Kelly...what can I say about this guy? Maybe he would have won more games than Napier, but he was a bad fit at Florida.
Let us revisit Billy Napier. He was the second winningest coach available in 2021. By 2025 he fell to seventh in terms of winning percentage on this list. Napier just needs to go back to the Sun Belt or a similar conference. By 2025, Fickell's record looked like Napier's, Cristobal's was better, Mullen's was improving (thanks to an easier UNLV schedule), Franklin was getting fired, DeBoer was at the top of the class, Kiffin found his groove, Tucker's career was destroyed, Chadwell was playing it smart at a smaller conference, Hafley was gone, Brian Kelly was fired, Chip Kelly was fired, and Mark Stoops was fired.

Even with a time machine, I think I would have selected Billy Napier in 2021. How were we supposed to know that he was going to fail? We would not have really considered Kiffin in 2021 not knowing that he was two years away from turning a corner.

Name​	2021 School​	2021 Salary​	Buyout​	2021 Tot WL%​	Current WL%​	2025 School​	2025 Salary​	2025 Tot WL​
Luke Fickell​	Cincinnati​	$3.40​	$4.00​	70.83​	76.27​	Wisconsin​	$7.83​	63.50​
Billy Napier​	Louisiana​	$2.00​	$3.00​	75.51​	75.51​	Fired​	0​	63.90​
Mario Cristobal​	Oregon​	$2.7​	$9.00​	50.82​	72.92​	Miami​	$8.3​	54.70​
Dan Mullen​	Florida​	$7.60​	$12.00​	63.19​	70.83​	UNLV​	$5.5​	64.20​
James Franklin​	Penn State​	$5.50​	$4.00​	65.69​	67.35​	Fired​	$0​	68.10​
Kalen DeBoer​	Fresno State​	$1.35​	$1.50​	90.80​	66.66​	Alabama​	$10.25​	87.20​
Lane Kiffin​	Ole Miss​	$4.50​	$0.00​	34.35​	65.00​	LSU​	$9​	68.60​
Mel Tucker​	Michigan State​	$6.00​	$6.00​	55.17​	64.71​	Fired​	0​	64.71​
Jamey Chadwell​	Coastal Carolina​	$0.85​	$0.00​	61.70​	58.70​	Liberty​	$7.90​	5.90​
Jeff Hafley​	Boston College​	$3.00​	$0.00​	57.41​	57.14​	Inactive​	$0​	0.00​
Brian Kelly​	Notre Dame​	~$5​	~$5​	63.50​	56.52​	Fired​	$10.13​	0.00​
Chip Kelly​	UCLA​	$5.8​	$1.5​	66.39​	50.72​	Inactive​	$2.00​	0.00​
Mark Stoops​	Kentucky​	$5.00​	$1.75​	47.06​	47.06​	Fired​	$7.95​	0.00​

 

[DRU2012]

TI am in the minority that believes Napier is a good coach, but not at the SEC level. I think he will do well at JMU, which is currently in 1st place in Napier's old division, the Sun Belt. It also helps Napier that Bob Chesney is basically handing him a championship caliber team. It will be interesting to see how Chesney thrives at UCLA, because he came up from Division II and went 3-3 in the playoffs before moving up to Division I and going 2-3 in the playoffs through the Sun Belt. We will get to compare Napier and Chesney as they essentially swap roles. I think Napier will take JMU to the Sun Belt championship and possibly the playoffs.

We can all see in hindsight that he is not cut out for the SEC, but if we got into a time machine and looked back at the field as of November 2021 he was a good candidate. Keep in mind that what is not on the chart below is NIL 1.0. At the time, Louisiana had a better NIL 1.0 plan than most, if not all, the other schools on this list.

Luke Fickell. All over social media, Gator fans were clamoring for Luke Fickell. Look at his trajectory: he waited another year to leave Cincinnati for Wisconsin, where he now has a losing record. He was 57-18 at Cincinnati, an AAC school. He is currently 17-21 at Wisconsin--basically the same as Napier at Florida after 3 years. Also consider geography. I predict that Fickell will never coach in a school outside the Midwest.

Mario Cristobal was never coming to Florida. He has always hated Florida, so anyone who thought he would consider this job is not paying attention to history. Cristoball is the benchmark for comparison to Napier, and it appears that Cristobal was the better coach.

James Franklin would have been a better candidate than Napier, but he was not going to leave his dream job as a Pennsylvania kid. Even in 2025, his 104-45 record is remarkable. Penn State officials were either silly to fire him at 3-3 this season or there is something else going on behind the scenes that we do not know about.

Kalen DeBoer did not seem interested in leaving that part of the country until the Alabama position opened up in 2024. In 2021, it made sense for him to pick Washington over any other school because it was open and it was in a part of the country that he liked.

Lane Kiffin, believe it or not, had a worse winning record than Billy Napier in 2021. People forget that Kiffin did not really start to put things together until 2023. Even then, he may have been the best candidate in 2025, but just as it was in 2021 there were no true home run, coach of the year hires except maybe Mel Tucker.

Mel Tucker...he would have been a home run hire if he had not sexually harassed a Michigan State student. The next closest home run hire would have been Brian Kelly.

Brian Kelly...what can I say about this guy? Maybe he would have won more games than Napier, but he was a bad fit at Florida.
Let us revisit Billy Napier. He was the second winningest coach available in 2021. By 2025 he fell to seventh in terms of winning percentage on this list. Napier just needs to go back to the Sun Belt or a similar conference. By 2025, Fickell's record looked like Napier's, Cristobal's was better, Mullen's was improving (thanks to an easier UNLV schedule), Franklin was getting fired, DeBoer was at the top of the class, Kiffin found his groove, Tucker's career was destroyed, Chadwell was playing it smart at a smaller conference, Hafley was gone, Brian Kelly was fired, Chip Kelly was fired, and Mark Stoops was fired.

Even with a time machine, I think I would have selected Billy Napier in 2021. How were we supposed to know that he was going to fail? We would not have really considered Kiffin in 2021 not knowing that he was two years away from turning a corner.

Name​	2021 School​	2021 Salary​	Buyout​	2021 Tot WL%​	Current WL%​	2025 School​	2025 Salary​	2025 Tot WL​
Luke Fickell​	Cincinnati​	$3.40​	$4.00​	70.83​	76.27​	Wisconsin​	$7.83​	63.50​
Billy Napier​	Louisiana​	$2.00​	$3.00​	75.51​	75.51​	Fired​	0​	63.90​
Mario Cristobal​	Oregon​	$2.7​	$9.00​	50.82​	72.92​	Miami​	$8.3​	54.70​
Dan Mullen​	Florida​	$7.60​	$12.00​	63.19​	70.83​	UNLV​	$5.5​	64.20​
James Franklin​	Penn State​	$5.50​	$4.00​	65.69​	67.35​	Fired​	$0​	68.10​
Kalen DeBoer​	Fresno State​	$1.35​	$1.50​	90.80​	66.66​	Alabama​	$10.25​	87.20​
Lane Kiffin​	Ole Miss​	$4.50​	$0.00​	34.35​	65.00​	LSU​	$9​	68.60​
Mel Tucker​	Michigan State​	$6.00​	$6.00​	55.17​	64.71​	Fired​	0​	64.71​
Jamey Chadwell​	Coastal Carolina​	$0.85​	$0.00​	61.70​	58.70​	Liberty​	$7.90​	5.90​
Jeff Hafley​	Boston College​	$3.00​	$0.00​	57.41​	57.14​	Inactive​	$0​	0.00​
Brian Kelly​	Notre Dame​	~$5​	~$5​	63.50​	56.52​	Fired​	$10.13​	0.00​
Chip Kelly​	UCLA​	$5.8​	$1.5​	66.39​	50.72​	Inactive​	$2.00​	0.00​
Mark Stoops​	Kentucky​	$5.00​	$1.75​	47.06​	47.06​	Fired​	$7.95​	0.00​

I don’t know HOW I missed this thread back when originally posted—somehow it only popped up in the bottom (ie. my “quick go-to search for who and what to address here early in the day)…I guess I’ll be LOOKING for it—and things LIKE it—from now on!
So much “back story STUFF” to potentially address—but really “too much water under the bridge”, time having flown by to really even bother now…
Do will mainly just let it all mostly go BY for now, and endeavor to do BETTER from now ON.
—EXCEPT for one thing:
What IS notable is how SUMRALL’S name is completely missing from the above discussion, from ANY of the “lists”. I note that now NOT as criticism but as further evidence of how things have changed, how they DO change, suddenly and quickly today—NOT just in the realm of college football of course, not just “in the NEWS, but in all facets of modern society and the world as we experience it now of “Social Media”, nose-to-smartphones even in crowded “meeting places”—where (if truth be told) NOT a heck of a lot of “meeting” is going ON!