Preseason Predictions for 2024

[Escambia94]

My home brewed game calculator from last year was relatively accurate. Based on what we know right now in July 2024, I actually have the Gators going 3-9 (3-5), but I decided to override my calculator and predict 9-3 (5-3). Crazy, I know.

Update: The Gators finished 8-5 (4-4), including wins over ranked opponents 22 LSU and 9 Ole Miss.

1. (19) Miami: W19–17 --> L17-41
2. Samford: W48-6 --> W45-7
3. Texas A&M: W23-17 --> L20-33
4. Miss St: W32-21 --> W45-28
6. UCF: W24-23 --> W24-13
7. (8) Tennessee: L27-33 --> L17-23OT
8. Kentucky: W38-21 --> W48-20
10. (2) Georgia: L21-36 --> L20-34
11. (5) Texas: L24-38 --> L17-49
12. (22) LSU: W33-30 --> W27-16
13. (9) Ole Miss: W29-21 --> W24-17
14. FSU: W32-21 --> W33-8

Here is the raw data predicting a 3-9 season.

Here is a tuned set of data with optimistic values used to derive the score predictions above.

 

[DRU2012]

My home brewed game calculator from last year was relatively accurate. Based on what we know right now in July 2024, I actually have the Gators going 3-9 (3-5), but I decided to override my calculator and predict 9-3 (5-3). Crazy, I know.

Miami: W19–17
Samford: W48-6
Texas A&M: W23-17
Miss St: W32-21
UCF: W24-23
Tennessee: L27-33
Kentucky: W38-21
Georgia: L21-36
Texas: L24-38
LSU: W33-30
Ole Miss: W29-21
FSU: W32-21

Here is the raw data predicting a 3-9 season.

View attachment 881

Here is a tuned set of data with optimistic values used to derive the score predictions above.

View attachment 882

So your "pessimistically accurate calculator" (ie. analytically driven hardware) gets overridden by your "optimistically motivated brain" (ie. emotionally driven software)--and the end result is a "Screw the logic- and crowd-driven opinions" final result: "9-and-3"?
Naturally, I find the latter endlessly more palatable. Not that any of it really seems to have much to do with our vague and confused future!
I want to "LIKE" it--but the honest, inescapeable TRUTH is that NO ONE HAS THE SLIGHTEST REAL IDEA ABOUT ANY OF IT this time.
THAT (by the way) is the crazy reality of Gator Football AND the state of our society, nation and WORLD in 2024.
Like that "3-9 vs 9-3", either extreme appears eminently possible--like almost every important question posed by us in July regarding what will be in the Fall.
Which, for me, brings us all the way back to my point in the Thread, "BEAT MIAMI":
For the moment, the best I can manage is that we damn well better focus on THAT.
AFTER that, well big surprise: It'll just have to be a matter of "week to week".

 

[Escambia94]

So your "pessimistically accurate calculator" (ie. analytically driven hardware) gets overridden by your "optimistically motivated brain" (ie. emotionally driven software)--and the end result is a "Screw the logic- and crowd-driven opinions" final result: "9-and-3"?
Naturally, I find the latter endlessly more palatable. Not that any of it really seems to have much to do with our vague and confused future!
I want to "LIKE" it--but the honest, inescapeable TRUTH is that NO ONE HAS THE SLIGHTEST REAL IDEA ABOUT ANY OF IT this time.
THAT (by the way) is the crazy reality of Gator Football AND the state of our society, nation and WORLD in 2024.
Like that "3-9 vs 9-3", either extreme appears eminently possible--like almost every important question posed by us in July regarding what will be in the Fall.
Which, for me, brings us all the way back to my point in the Thread, "BEAT MIAMI":
For the moment, the best I can manage is that we damn well better focus on THAT.
AFTER that, well big surprise: It'll just have to be a matter of "week to week".

We will learn a lot in the game against Miami, since they are basically a mirror image of the Gators: 3rd-year coach, similar talent level, similar histories.

 

[DRU2012]

We will learn a lot in the game against Miami, since they are basically a mirror image of the Gators: 3rd-year coach, similar talent level, similar histories.

You know, I hadn't really let that clear TRUTH manifestvin my consciousness--But it's TRUE:
In raw "literal" terms, we CURRENTLY ARE "mirror recent historic images" of each other!
When is the last time THAT was in any similar way true??!

 

[Escambia94]

I guess I will go ahead and close down this thread. My model does not have any variables for crappy coaching and lackadaisical effort from the players. New prediction: I do not care about the Florida Gators as long as Billy Napier is the head coach unless he changes everything in a week, which is not likely to happen.

Prediction --> Result​

Miami: W19–17 --> L17-41

Original Model Prediction --> Updated Guess​

Samford: W48-6 --> W30-14
Texas A&M: W23-17 --> L21-27
Miss St: W32-21 --> L14-21
UCF: W24-23 --> L21-32
Tennessee: L27-33 --> L14-42
Kentucky: W38-21 --> L21-38
Georgia: L21-36 --> L0-42 (UF will lose its NCAA leading scoring streak and guarantee Napier gets fired)
Texas: L24-38 --> L0-32 (UF will go scoreless in back-to-back games)
LSU: W33-30 --> L30-33
Ole Miss: W29-21 --> L10-36 (No, Lane Kiffen will not be coming to UF to coach. He will enjoy beating down the Gators and taking any recruits.)
FSU: W32-21 --> L16-21 (This will be one of the ugliest games ever played.)