Official Game Thread: Week 8, #9 Florida Gators vs South Carolina 10/19/19

[Escambia94]

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Saturday October 19, 2019, 12:00 PM (EDT). Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, South Carolina (80,250)

• ESPN
  • Play-by-Play: Dave Pasch Analyst: Greg McElroy Reporter: Tom Luginbill
• Gator IMG Sports Network
  • Play-by-Play: Mick Hubert
    
  • Analyst: Lee McGriff
    
  • Sideline: Tate Casey
• Odds: Florida -6.5 (49)

The Florida Gators lead the all-time series 27-9-3 against their oldest rival, the South Carolina Gamecocks. When these two teams first faced each other in 1911, it was 81 years before the two teams were in the same conference. The Gators are off to their second consecutive 6-1 start and look to take a definitive lead in the SEC East by defeating the team that just beat the presumed East champion.

Florida has the #48 total offense and #20 total defense in the nation. South Carolina has the #71 total offense and #78 total defense in the nation. Florida is ranked #12 by Sagarin, compared to South Carolina's ranking of #28. The Gators should not take South Carolina lightly, but they should be able to cover the spread. I predict a 32-14 victory for the Gators against former Gator head coach, Will Muschamp.

 

[Leakfan12]

Their QB won't be 100 percent though he will play.

 

[Escambia94]

Their QB won't be 100 percent though he will play.

Ryan Hilinski gives them the best chance to win. He has a rather pedestrian passer rating of 123.87, which is 8th in the SEC. He was a 4-star out of Orange, California and had offers from SC, Arizona State, and Ole Miss. He has decent size at 6'4", 218 pounds.

Interestingly, the offensive coordinator at SC is Bryan McClendon, son of former Chicago Bear Willie McClendon. Bryan runs a pro-style offense that sounds similar to the old Georgia offenses that McClendon grew up in: pro-set with some shotgun, downhill running, two tight ends or three receiver looks with solid running and blocking from the running backs. Nothing fancy. Hilinski could possibly tear up the Gator defense with a clean pocket.

 

[Escambia94]

South Carolina QB Ryan Hilinski is the #8 passer in the SEC, #60 in FBS. His passer rating of 123.9 translates into a 124.5 versus top-25 teams, and 112.6 vs SEC teams. At home he has a rating of 128.8, which includes a 174.3 performance against Charleston Southern. Here is a breakdown of his game performances:

• vs Charleston Southern W 72-10 24/30 282 YD 2 TD 1 INT 0 SK 174.3 RAT 79.5 QBR
• vs Alabama L 23-47 36/57 324 YD 2 TD 1 INT 3 SK 119.0 RAT 65.0 QBR
• @ Missouri L 14-34 13/30 166 1 TD 1 INT 2 SK 94.1 RAT 29.0 QBR
• vs Kentucky W 24-7 15/27 140 YD 0 TD 0 INT 3 SK 99.1 RAT 46.1 QBR
• @ Georgia W 15/20 116 YD 1 INT 0 SK 140.2 RAT 90.8 QBR

Note that in games where Hilinski is sacked 2 or more times, his passing efficiency is vastly reduced. Although he was sacked 3 times against Kentucky, having them at home seems to have helped the Gamecocks pull out the victory. Obviously, his best performance was against Georgia where he completed 80% of his passes. What this tells me is that other than the Kentucky game at home, the key to beating Hilinski is to get at least two sacks and an interception. Hilinski is no slouch, because he can still complete 63% of his passes against the likes of Alabama in a loss.

 

[DRU2012]

I look for Kyle Trask to have a breakout performance. Using Pitts to loosen up the midfield passing game, he will have a chance to hit some bombs early and often.
But it is in our moribund running game that our hopes today and through to the end of the season truly lie. We have GOT to find more than the “pound away in a cloud of dust with an eye towards the 4th quarter”; We can beat USCe (is it finally time to omit the “directional e”?) that way—but NOT UGA or maybe even Mizzou. It may be the difference between this season turning out a kind of facsimile of last, and perhaps something unexpectedly magical lies with that distinction.
I just don’t know if we have the latter in us: This could be the game when we begin to find out.

 

[DRU2012]

I thought Henderson had that all the way. We may be in trouble down our pass rushers. Gotta shut them down here: This could be a low scoring affair.

 

[DRU2012]

Damn. No pass rush. We are fucked if we don’t find a way to pressure this guy.

 

[DRU2012]

Grantham will have to come up with some Blitz packages...They are gonna score on us here; We better get it back quick.

 

[DRU2012]

I still can’t get over them getting that flee-flicker last Henderson.

 

[DRU2012]

Aw fuck—that kid is LINING UP OFFSIDES

 

[DRU2012]

Well, we gave them that. D really letting us down.

 

[DRU2012]

OK. Let’s go get that back. No rush. No run game...If Kyle doesn’t have us respond quickly here, I may have to take a long walk...beautiful warm day here in Austin...THEIR game ain’t on til later, so quiet here in the neighborhood...

 

[DRU2012]

It don’t look good; we have a poor history in this kind of weather...I have witnessed way too many lousy performances in pouring rain: that seems where this is headed.
Ah, Gators: Trask having trouble throwing the wet ball. Now the busted screen. Oh oh. Might HAVE to go to Jones in a no-win situation.

 

[DRU2012]

Up to our add to suck it up and get us even. NOW.

 

[DRU2012]

They look sharper than us. Either that changes PRONTO, or we will lose a game that will change our season to “Fehh!”.

 

[DRU2012]

Does Dan Mullen not believe in the challenge? That wasn’t even CLOSE TO A FIRST DOWN. Damn this game.

 

[DRU2012]

I just can’t watch us blow the game and the season. Will check in with y’all later—and if it stays like THIS, Maybe not til AFTER the game and the inevitable post-mortems. (Oh, and btw: This is the 2nd game in a row I see our head coach looking pretty damn fallible, I’m sad to say. My biggest complaint: He didn’t have his team ready to play coming in here today. Now, that happened against this same team LAST season—but we came storming back in the 4th to win it...but that was at OUR place.
Until we SEIZE this thing, I remain pessimistic.

 

[DRU2012]

We will NOT be anything LIKE the team we wanna be until we at LEAST start beating teams we are more talented than—and beating them EASILY.

 

[DRU2012]

Watch how the ELITE teams handle their business. That’s where we need to get to.

 

[DRU2012]

Trask just missed him. Terrible throw. Shoulda been 6 points.