Which brings me to a question, what does Vegas really want when it makes a spread? Does it want equal $ on both teams, or does it want more money on the team Vegas thinks everyone thinks will jump on (either to cover or not cover)?
Let's take the SEC CG. What does Vegas set the spread at, given most people think Florida will win? Do they set the spread so that there's an equal amount of money bet on each team (and profit from the transaction fees), or does Vegas try to set the spread so most of the money bet is lost?
Right now the spread is about -10, Florida being favored. When Vegas made this spread, what are they hoping for?
1. 50% of the dollars are put on Alabama and 50% of the dollars are put on UF?
or
2. 100% of the dollars are put on UF (and UF loses or doesn't cover) OR 100% of the dollars are put on Alabama (and UF covers)?
I'm guessing Vegas prefers option 2, but it's more risky for them. However, I'm thinking there are certain games were Vegas thinks public perception of the teams is WELL OFF what Vegas thinks will really happen during the game.
Take the UT game, for example. The spread was -7 or -7.5 as of September 18th, depending on where you placed your bet. I thought that was insane, as I knew Florida would cover, but then why in the world did Vegas barely make UF a 1 TD favorite? Probably because they knew most sports betters were like, "Oh, its a big rivalry game and it's in Knoxville, and last time UF played there, they barely won, so yeah, I'm betting on UF not covering or even losing that game." If this is what ultimately happened (I never checked), then Vegas probably made a lot of money on that game, even though the money wasn't split 50/50 on both teams.
