GatorsFirst
Gator Fan
Florida basketball… it’s faaantastic! And it starts tonight. You can already read what I think of this weekend’s opponents, by clicking here. My earliest sports memories are going to Gator basketball games- my dad has been a basketball booster for over 20 years. Well, Gator games and being brain-washed into what is now called ‘Red Sox Nation’. Back to the topic at hand- Gator basketball is starting, and I’m extremely excited to see what this season has in store for us: the development of the returning players, the highly touted incoming recruits, and how many clipboards Billy D will shatter during timeouts. Disregard the last one; I don’t get to see every game any more, and they don’t show that stuff on TV…
Last year, the baby Gators broke a decade-long streak of Donovan-led Florida squads going to the Big Dance (if you don’t know the Big Dance = NCAA Tournament = March Madness, you clearly aren’t a closet office pool gambler like the rest of America.) Now, I have sat through some rough seasons. Interim coach Don DeVoe being booed during home game introductions come to mind, as that took place during my impressionable childhood. So I am not going to go overboard and talk about last season being terrible. I also do not think the extraordinary back-to-back titles now mean Florida fans should expect annual Final Four berths. I do, however, have my own definition of what a ‘good’ Florida basketball season should be. I think any year in which we make the Sweet 16, or win the SEC Tournament, has to be considered a success. Until the recent streak of 3 SEC Tournament championships in a row (a streak also broken by last year’s bunch), we were trailing Georgia Tech in total SEC Tournament championships. Yeah, that’s no misprint, they were a league member. The score was only 1-0, but it’s still a fun way of saying we weren’t very good. I now think it’s reasonable to expect to win a couple SEC Tournaments per decade. However, I also think it’s reasonable to expect to be in the NCAA tournament practically every year.
Last year was an aberration. We lost the entire starting 5 from back-to-back title teams to the NBA and graduation. We lost the sixth man to the NBA draft. We lost all 3 walk-ons, who decided the grueling practices, with little hope of playing time, were not going to be worth it if they were not getting a ring. And I can’t say I blame them- we had peaked as a program. The result of this exodus: 9 scholarship players! And that was when everyone was healthy! You can’t even run legit 5-on-5 in practice that way. We added a walk-on who Donovan took after some of the guys saw him play at Southwest Rec, and recommended him. The guy had never even played high school basketball, and now was in the top 12 of a “two time defending champion”?
This year, we have what some people ranked as the #1 recruiting class in the land. The way basketball goes, with early commits, and early signing periods, this is really the first full class with the benefit of being recruited by a ‘back-to-back championship-winning’ coach. I don’t know how much of a difference it makes, as Donovan has always been known as a fantastic recruiter, but I am willing to bet it makes some sort of difference. Eloy Vargas and Kenny Kadji are the frontcourt help. If you’ve followed our team at all, you know Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Chris Richard, and, now, Marreese Speights have recently made the jump to the NBA. All of these guys going to the league means the frontcourt depth for Billy D has been seriously depleted. Vargas and Kadji are supposed to take care of that problem. As is Allan Chaney, but at 6’8” he is more of a small forward, not the low-post presence we so obviously lacked when Speights was in foul trouble or taking a breather. Then, there are the guards. Ray Shipman should provide perimeter defense, another area that was a problem a year ago. It was a problem last year because we started two under-six-foot guards, and because our young guys were not showing a commitment to defense. Shipman has that defensive ability, and the size and athleticism to match up with guards around the SEC. The last, and shortest, member of the recruiting class is Erving Walker. I’ve seen him listed as 5’6” to 5’8”. Florida fans should have no problem latching on to this little guy, who can fill it up with the best of them, as many shorter guys on the football team have quickly become fan favorites (Brandon James, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps). This reminds me, Teddy Dupay was extremely popular back when he was in school, too, but now he’s just known as a woman-beating thug: I wonder if the Swamp has pulled down his autographed jersey. Another newcomer of note is 6’10” Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin. He is not eligible to play for Billy Donovan’s team this year, but he can bring his enormous low-post presence to the practice floor, where he will play a large role (pun intended) in developing the young Gator front court.
While our first two games aren’t against complete patsies (they are certainly above the usual St. Augustine School for the Deaf and Blind-type teams we load up on early), the non-conference schedule is fairly easy. We do have a game with Syracuse, and a possible match up with defending champ Kansas to worry about, but the main part of the schedule- and what will determine our postseason fate- is the SEC portion. I think you have to put Tennessee as the favorite in the East, and consider the East the better half of the SEC this year. Kentucky is always Kentucky, but Vanderbilt should be taking a step back this year, with the departure of Shan Foster, among others. So we should be a top 3 or 4 team in the SEC, a league which some are predicting could get anywhere from 5 (most likely) to 7 (if it’s a great year) NCAA tournament bids. In the SEC, you hope to win all of your home games, and split the road games. A 12-4 conference record would be fantastic- and I think it’s somewhat achievable. And the top 2 west teams have to visit Gainesville (LSU, Alabama.) We have to go to Tallahassee, and we host NC State. I don’t see any way we do worse than 20-11 this year, as we should be at least one game better in the SEC (we were 8-8 last year), and we shouldn’t lose more than 4 non-conference games. I’m going to say, realistically, we go 13-2 in the non-conference slate, and 11-5 in the conference, to wind up at 24-7. Depending on how we hold up health-wise, how hot we are down the stretch, and our draw/performance in the SEC Tournament, we should be a top 4 seed. Top 4 seeds are expected to make the Sweet Sixteen, so that puts us in line with what I call a ‘good season’. It’s really hard to tell, because so much rides on the young guys, but even at 20-11 we could make the tournament as an 8 seed, and I think that’s a realistic floor for our expectations this year. We weren’t much worse than that last year, and this year’s showing should be a big improvement. You read it here at GatorsFirst.com: 2008 will mark the beginning of a new streak of NCAA appearances for the Florida Gators and Coach Billy Donovan.
Any thoughts???
Last year, the baby Gators broke a decade-long streak of Donovan-led Florida squads going to the Big Dance (if you don’t know the Big Dance = NCAA Tournament = March Madness, you clearly aren’t a closet office pool gambler like the rest of America.) Now, I have sat through some rough seasons. Interim coach Don DeVoe being booed during home game introductions come to mind, as that took place during my impressionable childhood. So I am not going to go overboard and talk about last season being terrible. I also do not think the extraordinary back-to-back titles now mean Florida fans should expect annual Final Four berths. I do, however, have my own definition of what a ‘good’ Florida basketball season should be. I think any year in which we make the Sweet 16, or win the SEC Tournament, has to be considered a success. Until the recent streak of 3 SEC Tournament championships in a row (a streak also broken by last year’s bunch), we were trailing Georgia Tech in total SEC Tournament championships. Yeah, that’s no misprint, they were a league member. The score was only 1-0, but it’s still a fun way of saying we weren’t very good. I now think it’s reasonable to expect to win a couple SEC Tournaments per decade. However, I also think it’s reasonable to expect to be in the NCAA tournament practically every year.
Last year was an aberration. We lost the entire starting 5 from back-to-back title teams to the NBA and graduation. We lost the sixth man to the NBA draft. We lost all 3 walk-ons, who decided the grueling practices, with little hope of playing time, were not going to be worth it if they were not getting a ring. And I can’t say I blame them- we had peaked as a program. The result of this exodus: 9 scholarship players! And that was when everyone was healthy! You can’t even run legit 5-on-5 in practice that way. We added a walk-on who Donovan took after some of the guys saw him play at Southwest Rec, and recommended him. The guy had never even played high school basketball, and now was in the top 12 of a “two time defending champion”?
This year, we have what some people ranked as the #1 recruiting class in the land. The way basketball goes, with early commits, and early signing periods, this is really the first full class with the benefit of being recruited by a ‘back-to-back championship-winning’ coach. I don’t know how much of a difference it makes, as Donovan has always been known as a fantastic recruiter, but I am willing to bet it makes some sort of difference. Eloy Vargas and Kenny Kadji are the frontcourt help. If you’ve followed our team at all, you know Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Chris Richard, and, now, Marreese Speights have recently made the jump to the NBA. All of these guys going to the league means the frontcourt depth for Billy D has been seriously depleted. Vargas and Kadji are supposed to take care of that problem. As is Allan Chaney, but at 6’8” he is more of a small forward, not the low-post presence we so obviously lacked when Speights was in foul trouble or taking a breather. Then, there are the guards. Ray Shipman should provide perimeter defense, another area that was a problem a year ago. It was a problem last year because we started two under-six-foot guards, and because our young guys were not showing a commitment to defense. Shipman has that defensive ability, and the size and athleticism to match up with guards around the SEC. The last, and shortest, member of the recruiting class is Erving Walker. I’ve seen him listed as 5’6” to 5’8”. Florida fans should have no problem latching on to this little guy, who can fill it up with the best of them, as many shorter guys on the football team have quickly become fan favorites (Brandon James, Chris Rainey, Jeff Demps). This reminds me, Teddy Dupay was extremely popular back when he was in school, too, but now he’s just known as a woman-beating thug: I wonder if the Swamp has pulled down his autographed jersey. Another newcomer of note is 6’10” Georgetown transfer Vernon Macklin. He is not eligible to play for Billy Donovan’s team this year, but he can bring his enormous low-post presence to the practice floor, where he will play a large role (pun intended) in developing the young Gator front court.
While our first two games aren’t against complete patsies (they are certainly above the usual St. Augustine School for the Deaf and Blind-type teams we load up on early), the non-conference schedule is fairly easy. We do have a game with Syracuse, and a possible match up with defending champ Kansas to worry about, but the main part of the schedule- and what will determine our postseason fate- is the SEC portion. I think you have to put Tennessee as the favorite in the East, and consider the East the better half of the SEC this year. Kentucky is always Kentucky, but Vanderbilt should be taking a step back this year, with the departure of Shan Foster, among others. So we should be a top 3 or 4 team in the SEC, a league which some are predicting could get anywhere from 5 (most likely) to 7 (if it’s a great year) NCAA tournament bids. In the SEC, you hope to win all of your home games, and split the road games. A 12-4 conference record would be fantastic- and I think it’s somewhat achievable. And the top 2 west teams have to visit Gainesville (LSU, Alabama.) We have to go to Tallahassee, and we host NC State. I don’t see any way we do worse than 20-11 this year, as we should be at least one game better in the SEC (we were 8-8 last year), and we shouldn’t lose more than 4 non-conference games. I’m going to say, realistically, we go 13-2 in the non-conference slate, and 11-5 in the conference, to wind up at 24-7. Depending on how we hold up health-wise, how hot we are down the stretch, and our draw/performance in the SEC Tournament, we should be a top 4 seed. Top 4 seeds are expected to make the Sweet Sixteen, so that puts us in line with what I call a ‘good season’. It’s really hard to tell, because so much rides on the young guys, but even at 20-11 we could make the tournament as an 8 seed, and I think that’s a realistic floor for our expectations this year. We weren’t much worse than that last year, and this year’s showing should be a big improvement. You read it here at GatorsFirst.com: 2008 will mark the beginning of a new streak of NCAA appearances for the Florida Gators and Coach Billy Donovan.
Any thoughts???
