Overview
The #12 Florida Gators kick off SEC play against the #20 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, September 10 at 7 PM Eastern on ESPN. The Gators are favored by 6 at home and the over/under is at 52 points with a 54.8% FPI. Last year the Wildcats defeated the Gators 20-13. The seniors on this team are the only Gators to have suffered defeat at the hands of the Wildcats. The Gators lead the all-time series 53-19 in a rivalry that goes back to 1917. Under Mark Stoops the Wildcats are 20-8 in games where the point margin is 7 or less, and are 44-7 when leading at the half. Kentucky is 5-34 all-time against ranked Florida teams. Florida is 28-4 since Mullen's tenure when scoring 30 points a game. We will soon discover Napier's winning point threshold, which is currently at 29 after one game. Kentucky is 19-40 under Stoops when allowing more than 20 points. I predict a 32-17 victory for the Gators based on the following analysis.
Trenches
The Wildcats match up rather well against the Gators in the trenches, but the Gator offensive line performed very well compared to previous years and it could be the key to a Gator victory. Florida has not seen as good an offensive line since the days of the Great Wall of Florida in the 1980s. On the defensive line both teams are similar in size and will use similar techniques in a 3-3-5/ hybrid 3-4 defense. Florida's defensive front looks good at times, but on occasion the EDGE will fail to set the edge and allow opposing running backs and dual threat QBs to cut across the grain for yardage.
Linebackers
The key to the Kentucky defense is the linebacker corps, which returns all of its starters from last year. The Gator linebacker corps is nowhere near as good, but the Wildcats are playing without their All-SEC running back Chris Rodriguez, who is suspended for a DUI. The Kentucky linebackers also have the advantage in terms of total experience and experience in the same defense. The Gators have an overhauled defense that sometimes puts WILL Amari Burney and JACK Brenton Cox into new situations. As long as Cox remembers to set the opposite edge from EDGE Gervon Dexter and DE Princely Umanmielen the 5-man front should be fine. When the Gators are pressed into 4 and 3-man fronts, both Burney and Cox can be liabilities in pass defense and in some run defense situations where a QB or TE (or in the case of Kentucky, a FB) leaks out.
Secondary
Florida is still a ways from its heyday as DBU, but they may get a solid test this weekend. Kentucky's secondary looked good against an elementary school football team, so they have that.
The #12 Florida Gators kick off SEC play against the #20 Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday, September 10 at 7 PM Eastern on ESPN. The Gators are favored by 6 at home and the over/under is at 52 points with a 54.8% FPI. Last year the Wildcats defeated the Gators 20-13. The seniors on this team are the only Gators to have suffered defeat at the hands of the Wildcats. The Gators lead the all-time series 53-19 in a rivalry that goes back to 1917. Under Mark Stoops the Wildcats are 20-8 in games where the point margin is 7 or less, and are 44-7 when leading at the half. Kentucky is 5-34 all-time against ranked Florida teams. Florida is 28-4 since Mullen's tenure when scoring 30 points a game. We will soon discover Napier's winning point threshold, which is currently at 29 after one game. Kentucky is 19-40 under Stoops when allowing more than 20 points. I predict a 32-17 victory for the Gators based on the following analysis.
Kentucky | Florida |
---|---|
37 P/F | 29 P/F |
13 P/A | 26 P/A |
353 YD/F | 451 YD/F |
303 PASS YD | 168 PASS YD |
50 RUSH YD | 283 RUSH YD |
290 YD/A | 446 YD/A |
179 PASS YD/A | 216 PASS YD/A |
111 RUSH YD/A | 230 RUSH YD/A |
Trenches
The Wildcats match up rather well against the Gators in the trenches, but the Gator offensive line performed very well compared to previous years and it could be the key to a Gator victory. Florida has not seen as good an offensive line since the days of the Great Wall of Florida in the 1980s. On the defensive line both teams are similar in size and will use similar techniques in a 3-3-5/ hybrid 3-4 defense. Florida's defensive front looks good at times, but on occasion the EDGE will fail to set the edge and allow opposing running backs and dual threat QBs to cut across the grain for yardage.
Kentucky Offensive Line | Florida Offensive Line |
---|---|
LT 68 Kenneth Horsey RSr 6-3 304 Sanford, FL/ Seminole | LT 76 Richard Gouraige RSr 6-5 308 Tampa, FL/ Cambridge Christian |
LG 62 Jager Burton RFr 6-4 301 Lexington, KY/ Douglass | LG 77 Ethan White Sr 6-4 331 Clearwater, FL/ Calvary Christian |
OC 75 Eli Cox RJr 6-4 298 Nicholasville, KY/ W Jessamine | OC 65 Kingsley Eguakun RJr 6-3 301 Jacksonville, FL/ Sandalwood |
RG 79 Tashawn Manning GrTrSr 6-4 330 Apopka, FL/ Wekiva (Auburn Transfer) | RG 54 O'Cyrus Torrence TrSr 6-5 347 Greensburg, LA/ St. Helena Central |
RT 77 Jeremy Flax Jr 6-6 328 Detroit, MI/ Robichaud | RT 70 Michael Tarquin RJr 6-5 320 Ocala, FL/ N Marion |
Kentucky Defensive Line | Florida Defensive Line |
---|---|
DE 90 Tre'vonn Rybka RSo 6-4 275 Dickson, TN/ Dickson County | DE 33 Princely Umanmielen JR 6-5 245 Manor, Tx/ Manor |
NT 52 Justin Rogers JR 6-3 332 Oak Park, MI/ Oak Park | NT 92 Jalen Lee JR 6-2 299 Watson, LA/ Live Oak |
DT 8 Octavious Oxendine Jr 6-1 281 Radcliff, KY/ N Hardin | DL/ EDGE 9 Gervon Dexter SO 6-6 312 Lake Wales, FL |
Linebackers
The key to the Kentucky defense is the linebacker corps, which returns all of its starters from last year. The Gator linebacker corps is nowhere near as good, but the Wildcats are playing without their All-SEC running back Chris Rodriguez, who is suspended for a DUI. The Kentucky linebackers also have the advantage in terms of total experience and experience in the same defense. The Gators have an overhauled defense that sometimes puts WILL Amari Burney and JACK Brenton Cox into new situations. As long as Cox remembers to set the opposite edge from EDGE Gervon Dexter and DE Princely Umanmielen the 5-man front should be fine. When the Gators are pressed into 4 and 3-man fronts, both Burney and Cox can be liabilities in pass defense and in some run defense situations where a QB or TE (or in the case of Kentucky, a FB) leaks out.
Kentucky Linebackers | Florida Linebackers |
---|---|
MIKE 10 Jacquez Jones GrTrSr 6-0 233 | MIKE 51 Ventrell Miller RSr 6-0 221 |
WILL 5 DeAndre Square GrSr 6-1 221 | WILL 2 Amari Burney RSr 6-2 228 |
OLB 13 JJ Weaver RJr 6-5 242 | JACK 1 Brenton Cox TrSr 6-3 252 |
Secondary
Florida is still a ways from its heyday as DBU, but they may get a solid test this weekend. Kentucky's secondary looked good against an elementary school football team, so they have that.
FCB 1 Keidron Smith TrSr | FCB 24 Avery Helm RSo |
BCB 14 Carrington Valentine Jr | BCB 3 Jason Marshall RFr |
NICKEL 23 Andru Philips RSo | STAR 16 Tre'Vez Johnson Jr |
SS 6 Tyrell Ajian GrSr | SS 0 Trey Dean RSr |
FS 4 Jalen Geiger RJr | FS/CREEPER 22 Rashad Torrence Jr |
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