Midseason Overreaction: No More Cupcakes on the Schedule

[Escambia94]

Heading into the back half of the season, the Gators are 4-2 (2-1), but are 1-2 on the road. On the bright side the Gators have surpassed Stewart Mandel’s prediction of going 3-9, but where will the Gators end up this season? Going 6-6 again (or worse) would not quiet the noise in the system even if Napier is safe from the hot seat for a few years. Where can the Gators squeeze out a few wins?

South Carolina (2-3, 1-2) will be an away game in the Cock Pit. The Gators will have their hands full with Spencer Rattler and their aerial attack. The Gators won 38-6 last year in the Swamp in Napier’s first year. Few of the starters were on this team when the Gators lost 17-40 in Columbia in 2021, so they may be surprised by the hostile environment up there. Florida has a 42% chance of victory here according to ESPN.

The Gators play Georgia (5-0, 3-0), of course, at a neutral site where the Gators have not matched up well against Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs. Florida has an 11% chance of victory.

Arkansas (2-4, 0-3) is reeling after 4 consecutive losses with Alabama on the schedule. Even if they get a confidence boost by beating Mississippi State the week before, Florida should be able to handle Arkansas. The Gators have a 53% chance of victory.

LSU (4-2, 3-1) is an enigma wrapped in a mystery. One thing we know is that Florida cannot beat them on talent, and their margin of victory is always thin thanks to stupid penalties. The Gators have a 19% chance of victory in Death Valley.

Missouri (5-1,1-1) is surprisingly good this year and will likely be ranked for this matchup. The Gators have a 43% chance of victory in the other Death Valley.

FSU (5-0) will be a top-10 team when the Gators play them. ESPN gives Florida a 23% chance of victory.

The Gators only have a > 50% chance against one more team, Arkansas. Missouri and South Carolina are each > 40%. The Gators should at least split these two. Unless things change the Gators will likely end the season on at least a 3-game losing streak.

 

[DRU2012]

Everything I see here (past, present AND future) says "losing record".
All I saw on the field, throughout the day, further FEELS as if WE are currently among the very bottom dwellers in college football play.
I am also sinking into a state of resigned acceptance: Assuming we ARE, by logic and circumstance and OUTRAGEOUS CONTRACT truly "joined at the hip" with Billy Napier for at least two more seasons NO MATTER WHAT the fans, media or foreseeable developments may indicate, for the FORESEEABLE FUTURE we live or die based on actual RESULTS.
Either Billy really DOES "Turn things AROUND" here, or he doesn't: He's going to get at least 3 or 3 seasons to find out no matter WHAT...Might as well sit back, watch, and TRY to root for him (and more to the point, the resulting team and program) next coupla seasons--He's here now, and if he fails it will mean ONE LONG ROAD BACK.
At the very least, for the moment we all ought to be rooting for continued recruiting acumen--perhaps his successor can arrive to take charge of a program rich in young talent (IF he can hold it here)...On a wider level though I DEFINITELY have my doubts about its current direction and fate.
I personally probably lack the patience to see it all through "no matter what". I doubt I am alone in this. But for now, we take things "one game at a time".