Mid-season Grades for the 2022 Florida Gators and Opponents

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

The Florida Gators are currently 4-3 (1-3) at the approximate halfway point if the season. Earlier this year I predicted the Gators would be 5-2 (3-1) at this point despite the data predicting the Gators at 3-4 (1-3). The chart below shows the win percentages for each game as the weeks went on.

Game

Opponent

FPI-1

FPI-2

FPI-3

FPI-4

FPI-5

FPI-6

FPI-7

FPI-8

FPI-9

FPI-10

FPI-11

FPI-12

FPI-13

Preseason Prediction

Mid-season Prediction

September 3, 2022

UU

46.02%

100.00%

UU 24, UF 21 (0-1, 0-0)

UF 29, UU 26 (1-0, 0-0)

September 10, 2022

UK

51.10%

49.27%

0.00%

UF 31, UK 27 (1-1, 1-0)

UK 21, UF 16 (1-1, 0-1)

September 17, 2022

USF

87.70%

92.84%

97.92%

100.00%

UF 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)UF

UF 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)

September 24, 2022

@ UT

39.80%

27.12%

17.93%

7.81%

0.00%

UT 30, UF 24 (2-2, 1-1)

UT 38, UF 33 (2-2, 0-2)

October 1, 2022

EWU

96.90%

99.47%

98.98%

98.00%

100.00%

UF 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)

UF 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)

October 8, 2022

MIZ

78.30%

81.10%

76.65%

78.28%

77.75%

76.69%

100.00%

UF 34, MIZ 23 (4-2, 2-1)

UF 24, MIZ 17 (4-2, 1-2)

October 15, 2022

LSU

44.70%

47.10%

34.46%

21.72%

22.52%

25.21%

0.00%

UF 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)

LSU 45, UF 35 (4-3, 1-3)

October 29, 2022

UGA (WLOCP)

4.46%

4.37%

3.42%

5.52%

6.36%

7.20%

UGA 32, UF 17 (5-3, 3-2)

UGA 42, UF 20 (4-4, 1-4)

November 5, 2022

@ TAMU

28.43%

36.49%

37.17%

27.43%

34.17%

39.07%

36.04%

33.00%

TAMU 38, UF 24,(5-4, 3-3)

TAMU 19, UF 17 (4-5, 1-5)

November 12, 2022

USC

72.88%

75.80%

69.47%

73.77%

72.24%

71.65%

67.58%

63.50%

UF 30, USC
27 (6-4, 4-3)

UF 32, USC
31 (5-5, 2-5)

November 19, 2022

@ VU

71.66%

82.55%

80.86%

71.97%

78.51%

79.75%

78.93%

78.10%

63.50%

78.10%

UF 38, VU 21 (7-4, 5-3)

UF 38, VU 14 (6-5, 3-5)

November 25, 2022

@ FSU

46.02%

49.27%

39.95%

26.25%

25.21%

34.49%

33.55%

32.60%

UF 21, FSU 14 (8-4, 5-3)

FSU 21, UF 14 (6-6, 3-5)

6.83

7.42

6.61

6.28

6.19

6.32

6.31

8.00

6.00

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

My assessment of Napier and his staff:
Offense: C+. The athletes that Napier brought in are by far more talented and more stable than the garbage recruits he inherited from Mullen. I have turned sour on Anthony Richardson, but I do have hope for him next year as Napier surrounds him with better athletes.
Defense: C. Defense is harder to learn as a freshman, so most of the headaches with this team come from veterans recruited by Mullen and coached by Grantham. These guys are historically bad, but Patrick Toney has tried a few things to squeeze performance out of these knuckleheads.
Special Teams: C. The GameChanger team has not changed the team except on a couple plays by Etienne. The kicker that Napier brought in was injured in the offseason, so we are using a walk-on kicker. The punter is excellent. With some better playmakers perhaps the GameChanger unit will live up to its name.
Overall: The intangibles of patient coaching, scheme adjustment, and recruiting give this staff an A for effort. Mullen was fired for not recruiting a good team, even though on paper it is the 12th-most talented team in America. The adjusted performance puts these athletes around #30 in talent, which we will see firsthand if the Gators make a bowl game.

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

Utah was predicted to go 12-0, but they stumbled against Florida and #18 UCLA. They next challenge will be #10 Oregon, who have beaten now #9 UCLA and #12 BYU. Currently Utah has a higher FPI and is favored to beat Oregon, but that will likely change as Oregon's FPI continues going up with quality wins. Utah will likely go 10-2, but they could go 9-3 with a loss to Oregon. Utah gets a B- at the midpoint of the season.

UU	Proj:12-0>10-2	FPI:12.9>16.4
12.90	UF	9.3	L 26-29
12.30	USU	-15.0	W 73-7
15.30	SDSU	-6.0	W 35-7
15.40	ASU	-0.2	W 34-13
16.50	OSU	4.9	W 42-16
17.80	18 UCLA	9.2	L 32-42
16.40	USC	15.5	W 43-42
16.40	bye	0.0	-
16.40	WSU	3.6
16.40	AZ	-4.5
16.40	Stanford	-0.4
16.40	10 ORE	13.6
16.40	COL	-15.0

Rankings and Grades

	Ranking	Rating
Offense	11	A
Defense	42	C-
Recruiting	40	C
Overall	8	B-

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

Kentucky was projected to go 8-4, that is likely where they end up albeit via different means. Kentucky was expected to beat USCe and lose to Mississippi State, but they flipped those outcomes. Kentucky looked ugly in their win against Florida, but they proved that consistent coaching and consistent recruiting make a better program. Overall the team is regressing a bit as the FPI has dropped from 12.0 to 8.6, which is still higher than Florida and the remainder of their schedule other than Georgia.

UK	Proj:8-4>8-4	FPI:12.0>8.6
12.00	Mia(OH)	-10.0	W 37-13
12.10	UF	10.6	W 26-16
12.10	YSU	-15.0	W 31-0
11.00	NI	-15.0	W 31-23
8.50	Miss	16.4	L 19-22
9.70	USC	4.4	L 14-24
7.50	MSU	13.6	W 27-17
8.40	bye	0.0
7.50	UT	19.6
7.50	Mizz	2.8
7.50	VU	-6.1
7.50	UGA	26.4
7.50	LU	6.4

Ratings and Grades

	Ranking	Rating
Offense	82	D
Defense	9	A
Recruiting	43	C
Overall	27	C

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

Missouri is usually a good benchmark for Florida, and this year they did not fall short of that expectation. Missouri is hot trash, and Florida is just warm trash. They were expected to go 4-8, and that is likely where they end up. Their FPI keeps hovering at 2.1, which means they will likely lose the remainder of their SEC schedule. Missouri gets a D, and I don't mean Dallas.

Mizz	Proj:4-8>4-8	FPI: 2.1>2.1
2.10	La Tech	-5.0	W 52-24
5.10	KSU	9.5	L 12-40
1.90	ACU	-15.0	W 34-17
-0.80	AUB	4.8	L 14-17 OT
0.30	UGA	26.4	L 22-26
2.60	UF	6.9	L 17-24
2.80	bye	0.0
1.70	VU	-6.1	W 17-14
1.70	USC	4.4
1.70	UK	7.5
1.70	UT	19.6
1.70	NMSU	-10.0
1.70	ARK	4.6

Ratings and Grades

	Ranking	Rating
Offense	98	D-
Defense	50	C
Recruiting	55	C
Overall	63	D

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

I fell into the trap of thinking that LSU would take a step back due to all the turmoil on campus. It turns out that Ed Orgeron built a very good team and together with his predecessor, the Mad Hatter, they have kept the talent pipeline flowing through Death Valley. The addition of Brian Kelly and his disciplined brand of football means that LSU should not be counted out in the long run once things settle down on campus. Statistically they were projected to go 10-2 based on talent alone, but that loss to FSU early in the season as forgivable as it is puts them at 9-3. LSU gets a B+.

LSU	Proj:10-2>9-3	FPI: 14.0>16.1
14.00	FSU	7.9	L 24-23
13.90	SU	-15.0	W 65-17
14.90	MSU	12.3	W 31-16
16.20	NM	-5.0	W 38-0
17.40	AUB	4.9	W 21-17
17.00	8 TENN	20.0	L 13-40
14.20	UF	6.6	W 45-35
16.10	7 MISS	14.6	W 45-20
16.10	BYE
16.10	6 BAMA	28.2
16.10	ARK	5.8
16.10	UAB	-15.0
16.10	TAMU	9.1

Ratings and Grades

	Ranking	Rating
Offense	30	B-
Defense	29	B-
Recruiting	7	A+
Overall	12	B+

Escambia94 · Oct 23, 2022

FSU might be the most improved team on our schedule, unfortunately. Their FPI has improved from 7.9 to 10.1 despite losses to #22 Wake Forest, #14 NC State and #4 Clemson. The Holes were predicted to go 7-5 but they will likely go 8-4 this year with a win over Florida.

FSU	Proj: 7-5>8-4	FPI:7.9>10.1
7.90	DUQ	-15.0	W 47-7
8.30	LSU	13.9	W 24-23
8.30	LOU	7.6	W 35-31
8.30	BC	-6.9	W 44-14
9.50	22 WAKE	10.0	L 21-31
8.90	14 NCST	8.9	L 17-19
9.30	4 CLEM	19.1	L 28-34
10.10	BYE	0.0	-
10.10	GATECH	-5.4
10.10	MIA	2.9
10.10	14 SYR	10.5
10.10	UL	-2.2
10.10	UF	7.4

Ratings and Grades

	Ranking	Rating
Offense	62	C-
Defense	45	C
Recruiting	16	A-
Overall	35	C+

DRU2012 · Oct 23, 2022

Escambia94 said:
The Florida Gators are currently 4-3 (1-3) at the approximate halfway point if the season. Earlier this year I predicted the Gators would be 5-2 (3-1) at this point despite the data predicting the Gators at 3-4 (1-3). The chart below shows the win percentages for each game as the weeks went on.

�

Game Opponent FPI-1 FPI-2 FPI-3 FPI-4 FPI-5 FPI-6 FPI-7 FPI-8 FPI-9 FPI-10 FPI-11 FPI-12 FPI-13 Preseason Prediction Mid-season Prediction
September 3, 2022
UU 46.02% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00% 100.00%
100.00%
UU 24, UF 21 (0-1, 0-0)
UF 29, UU 26 (1-0, 0-0)
September 10, 2022
UK
51.10%
49.27%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
UF 31, UK 27 (1-1, 1-0)
UK 21, UF 16 (1-1, 0-1)
September 17, 2022
USF
87.70%
92.84%
97.92%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
UF 42, USF 10 (2-1, 1-0)UF
UF 31, USF 28 (2-1, 0-1)
September 24, 2022
@ UT
39.80%
27.12%
17.93%
7.81%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
UT 30, UF 24 (2-2, 1-1)
UT 38, UF 33 (2-2, 0-2)
October 1, 2022
EWU
96.90%
99.47%
98.98%
98.00%
98.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
UF 38, EWU 20 (3-2, 1-1)
UF 52, EWU 17 (3-2, 0-2)
October 8, 2022
MIZ
78.30%
81.10%
76.65%
78.28%
77.75%
76.69%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
100.00%
UF 34, MIZ 23 (4-2, 2-1)
UF 24, MIZ 17 (4-2, 1-2)
October 15, 2022
LSU
44.70%
47.10%
34.46%
21.72%
22.52%
25.21%

0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
0.00%
UF 31, LSU 24 (5-2, 3-1)
LSU 45, UF 35 (4-3, 1-3)
October 29, 2022
UGA (WLOCP)

4.46%

4.37%

4.37%

4.37%

3.42%

5.52%

6.36%

7.20%

7.20%

7.20%

7.20%

7.20%

7.20%

UGA 32, UF 17 (5-3, 3-2)
UGA 42, UF 20 (4-4, 1-4)
November 5, 2022
@ TAMU

28.43%

36.49%

37.17%

27.43%

34.17%

39.07%

36.04%

33.00%

33.00%

33.00%

33.00%

33.00%

33.00%

TAMU 38, UF 24,(5-4, 3-3)
TAMU

This and your subsequent thorough statical "assessment of Napier and his staff" seem quite fair--and go a long way towards explaining what was coming and how it all more or less came to pass. I may not LIKE it, but I do "GET" it now.

It all amounts to the background tale to your repeated refrain so far along the way--one I haven't been able to argue with, by the way:
"These guys just aren't very good..."
Likewise, the seeds of a real change are also buried among the same numbers.

DRU2012 · Oct 23, 2022

@Escambia94,
As for the rest of your extensive and as usual intensely detailed analysis (the best I've seen--just wanted to acknowledge that), it further highlights and explains most facets of the frustration and disappointment this season has in fact brought our way.
The past, present and likely future are laid out clearly and fairly for us to see and understand--as well as the way forward and OUT of our seeming wanderings.
The past need NOT be prologue, IF we are patient and continue to trust and back our young Coach.
THAT is the philosophical message and theory underlying all that work in the facts and numbers you have compiled, I think.
MY accompanying message has therefore been for us to "hold course!": To allow this staff, program and "team-to-be" to carry on, continue in the direction they have embarked upon.
They are in fact endeavoring to build a foundation for sustained success--not merely the quick road to a coupla years of double digit wins and a few higher-profile non-Championship games (and maybe a windfall coaching extension before "the con-job" catches up with guys like the MacEllwaines and Mullens of the world, while we pay the bill in money and lost time), but nothing less than an eventual annual place in the expanding CFB Playoff picture.

Escambia94 · Oct 24, 2022

Summary
The Florida Gators are not a very good team, and our key rivals are much better. I have included Utah here since they are a good benchmark for the rest of FBS and we get another shot at them next year for comparison.

Power Rankings
1. UGA
2. UT
3. Utah
4. LSU
5. UK
6. TAMU
7. FSU
8. UF
9. USCe
10. Missouri

Combined Rankings/ Ratings

	UF	FSU	UGA	LSU	Utah	UK	MIZ	UT	USC	TAMU
Offense	55 C	62 C-	8 A+	30 B-	11 A	82 D	98 D-	1 A+	41 C+	109 F
Defense	81 D	45 C	2 A+	29 B-	42 C-	9 A	50 C	50 C	61 C-	22 B
Recruiting	9 A+	16 A-	2 A+	7 A+	40 C	43 C	55 C-	10 A+	15 A-	18 A-
Overall	39 C+	35 C+	3 A+	12 B+	8 B-	27 C	63 D	5 A+	41 C+	28 C

Escambia94 · Oct 24, 2022

The summary in one picture shows that Florida's performance has been above average compared against all FBS teams, but in the SEC and against our rivals and opponents we are not improving as quickly as FSU, but we are as inconsistent as Texas A&M.

DRU2012 · Oct 25, 2022

Yes. Yes. YES.
"We are not very good."
That was been long and well-eatablished.
Repeatedly so.
I for one am SICK and TIRED of having our faces rubbed in it.
The SOLE piece of "further information" I have the slightest further interest in is, "When are we likely to start witnessing the onset of INESCAPABLE IMPROVEMENT?"
The underlying tools and signs of said future are accumulating, multiplying now...
WHEN DO WE BEGIN TO REAP THE BENEFITS?
It seems so many RIVAL SEC programs have by now made THEIR progress with seemingly less longterm, deep diving plans and/or actual MOVES...It is MY theory that they will neither accomplish near as much, nor see it take them near as far into the future:
"OUR COACH IS BETTER THAN YOUR COACH."
That's my THEORY, anyway.
If I'm right, "The losers now will later be fast, while the winners now will later be last...
For the times, they are achangin'!"
So for the moment, yes, we "aren't very good"...
So we look to the FUTURE--and SCREW this season AND this collection of self-centered, underachieving navel-gazers!
Those who can change, adapt and grow to become a part of the "Gator-team-to-BE", under this new Coach, staff and system as they bring in a generally different and better quality of player to compose that team...THAT is the team I am looking towards with excitement.
The rest of THIS season's schedule is NOT simply about "wins and losses"--it is about "progress" and "the FUTURE", near as we can reckon it.

Mid-season Grades for the 2022 Florida Gators and Opponents

Escambia94

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