Measuring Ourselves

[DRU2012]

We probably shouldn't even GO there at this point, but in light of how dramatically disappointing a letdown the opener to Billy Napier's 2nd season as Head Coach of our program was and is, it's difficult NOT to at least LOOK at some of our rivals' opening games in similarly early points at the helms of THEIR programs.
So: Tennessee blows out Virginia yesterday, and tonight on a national stage FSU's young Coach has his squad dismantling 5th-ranked LSU, by now running up the score in the second half of what is both of THEIR openers.
Now, neither of these programs had suffered through near as extended periods of decline as ours at UF before landing their current respective guys. In Norvrll's case at FSU, yes, Taggart seemed to have somewhat floundered there for the couple of years he came in and took a previously successful program to successive losing records, but before him Jimbo Fisher had that program smoothly and solidly rolling along, hardly leaving the cupboard bare when he jumped to Texas A&M. That's exactly why the powers-that-be were so quick to pull the trigger on Taggert. So the squad Norvell inherited upon assuming the helm in Tallahassee was nowhere NEAR in the deep hole that more than 10 YEARS of successively bringing in "the wrong guy", a process completed by an at-the-end indifferent Dan Mullen, who reduced the once much-vaunted perrenial contender to back-in-the-pack SEC also-ran status before the talented, ambitious-but-patient Billy Napier agreed to come in and rebuild-to-greatness.
My point: Ours was and IS a "BIG JOB", requiring every BIT of the supposed talent AND patience his record, reputation and varied experience was said to have instilled in him.
Still, though, seeing these rivals making such long, sure strides to the front of the crowd is particularly galling given our current floundering.
Doesn't help quiet the building din of the mob howling for Billy's scalp at this point either...

 

[Escambia94]

If we are measuring we need to compare apples to oranges. Here is Mike Norvell's record compared to Billy Napier's record through the first 14 games. Napier opened up his Gator coaching career with an upset over a top-10 opponent who went on to become Pac-12 champion. Norvell lost his first two games. Napier had 7 losses (6 regular season) through 14 games to Norvell’s 10. Some have already anointed Norvell as a national champion 30 games in while calling for Napier to be fired with 33% of the data for had to head comparison.

FSU has faced some of the same issues as Florida in terms of recruiting and coaching. The difference is that Norvell is two years ahead of Napier and FSU only plays one ranked SEC opponent per year while Florida plays 2-4 ranked SEC opponents and 2-4 scrappy SEC opponents plus 1-2 top-10 power-5 opponents.

Mike Norvell	Billy Napier
Georgia Tech 16, FSU 13	Florida 29, #7 Utah 26
#12 Miami 52, FSU 10	#20 Kentucky 26, #12 Florida 16
FSU 41, JSU 24	#18 Florida 31, USF 28
#5 Notre Dame 42, FSU 26	#11 Tennessee 38, #20 Florida 33
FSU 31, #5 NC 28	Florida 52, #20-FCS EWU 17
Louisville 48, FSU 16	Florida 24, Missouri 17
Pitt 41, FSU 17	LSU 45, Florida 35
NC State 38, FSU 22	#1 UGA 42, Florida 20
FSU 56, Duke 35	Florida 41, Texas A&M 24
#9 Notre Dame 41, FSU 38	Florida 38, SC 6
#16-FCS JSU 20, FSU 17	Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24
Wake Forest 35, FSU 14	#16 FSU 45, Florida 38
Louisville 31, FSU 23	#14 Oregon State 30, Florida 3
FSU 33, Syracuse 30	#14 Utah 24, Florida 11
FSU 35, NC 25
FSU 59, UMass 3
Clemson 30, FSU 20
#19 NC St 28, FSU 14
FSU 31, Miami 28
FSU 26, BC 23
Florida 24, FSU 21
FSU 47, Duquesne 7
FSU 24, LSU 23
FSU 35, Louisville 31
FSU 44, BC 14
#22 Wake Forest 31, #23 FSU 21
#14 NC St 19, FSU 17
#4 Clemson 34, FSU 28
FSU 41,Georgia Tech 16
FSU 45, Miami 3
#23 FSU 38, Syracuse 3
#19 FSU 49, Louisiana 17
#16 FSU 45, Florida 38
#13 FSU 35, Oklahoma 32
#8 FSU 45, #5 LSU 24

 

[DRU2012]

If we are measuring we need to compare apples to oranges. Here is Mike Norvell's record compared to Billy Napier's record through the first 14 games. Napier opened up his Gator coaching career with an upset over a top-10 opponent who went on to become Pac-12 champion. Norvell lost his first two games. Napier had 7 losses (6 regular season) through 14 games to Norvell’s 10. Some have already anointed Norvell as a national champion 30 games in while calling for Napier to be fired with 33% of the data for had to head comparison.

FSU has faced some of the same issues as Florida in terms of recruiting and coaching. The difference is that Norvell is two years ahead of Napier and FSU only plays one ranked SEC opponent per year while Florida plays 2-4 ranked SEC opponents and 2-4 scrappy SEC opponents plus 1-2 top-10 power-5 opponents.

Mike Norvell	Billy Napier
Georgia Tech 16, FSU 13	Florida 29, #7 Utah 26
#12 Miami 52, FSU 10	#20 Kentucky 26, #12 Florida 16
FSU 41, JSU 24	#18 Florida 31, USF 28
#5 Notre Dame 42, FSU 26	#11 Tennessee 38, #20 Florida 33
FSU 31, #5 NC 28	Florida 52, #20-FCS EWU 17
Louisville 48, FSU 16	Florida 24, Missouri 17
Pitt 41, FSU 17	LSU 45, Florida 35
NC State 38, FSU 22	#1 UGA 42, Florida 20
FSU 56, Duke 35	Florida 41, Texas A&M 24
#9 Notre Dame 41, FSU 38	Florida 38, SC 6
#16-FCS JSU 20, FSU 17	Vanderbilt 31, Florida 24
Wake Forest 35, FSU 14	#16 FSU 45, Florida 38
Louisville 31, FSU 23	#14 Oregon State 30, Florida 3
FSU 33, Syracuse 30	#14 Utah 24, Florida 11
FSU 35, NC 25
FSU 59, UMass 3
Clemson 30, FSU 20
#19 NC St 28, FSU 14
FSU 31, Miami 28
FSU 26, BC 23
Florida 24, FSU 21
FSU 47, Duquesne 7
FSU 24, LSU 23
FSU 35, Louisville 31
FSU 44, BC 14
#22 Wake Forest 31, #23 FSU 21
#14 NC St 19, FSU 17
#4 Clemson 34, FSU 28
FSU 41,Georgia Tech 16
FSU 45, Miami 3
#23 FSU 38, Syracuse 3
#19 FSU 49, Louisiana 17
#16 FSU 45, Florida 38
#13 FSU 35, Oklahoma 32
#8 FSU 45, #5 LSU 24

Don't get me wrong: I agree completely.
My point above was pretty well exactly the same--that it is neither a fair nor even comparison.
It is our hope (and Billy's plan, to be sure) to shut them all UP out there, the Finebaums, Mandel and all the rest--or more likely to find them conveniently changing their tunes--a couple of seasons later when the by now similarly in-strong-ascension Gator program is itself consistently trouncing opponents in high profile contests once more.

 

[Escambia94]

Finebaum catches a lot of flak, but I understand where he is coming from. Objectively he wants good football in the best conference, and the Gator program has been one of the best programs in the SEC for decades. Mandel is just clamoring for attention. Regardless, Napier knew what he signed up for—one of the hardest, most heavily scrutinized programs in the country. Napier is not one of the 10 best coaches in the country right now, but he has the potential to grow into that status in a few years. Of course he is going to be ridiculed along the way. If he finishes 6-6 again he absolutely needs to win the bowl game and wrap up a top 5 recruiting class for 2024 to save his job. He is coaching his 14th game this week, so any talk of firing him after losing to last year’s Pac-12 champion and perennial top-20 team is completely asinine.

What metrics should we be using? Let’s start with time. Nobody is counting the years since a Gator coach was welcome at every high school campus to recruit any player he wanted. That number is 12. It has been 12 years since Urban Meyer earned national respect for all Gator recruiters to visit any campus in America and be taken seriously. High school coaches did not respect Muschamp and McElwain in the same regard and it shows because neither coach recruited well (although Champ did recruit one of the best classes in history by focusing solely on defense). Napier will not get credit for winning over high school coaches because we are selfish little shits only counting wins and top recruiting classes. It is hard, thankless work fixing 12 years of Gator sleazeball coaches burning high school coaches. That is foundational work that only the likes of Napier, Meyer, and Pell have done. Spurrier did not have to recruit like that because like Deion Sanders he was already a HOF hype machine recruiter. It is impossible to apply metrics to this.

 

[DRU2012]

Finebaum catches a lot of flak, but I understand where he is coming from. Objectively he wants good football in the best conference, and the Gator program has been one of the best programs in the SEC for decades. Mandel is just clamoring for attention. Regardless, Napier knew what he signed up for—one of the hardest, most heavily scrutinized programs in the country. Napier is not one of the 10 best coaches in the country right now, but he has the potential to grow into that status in a few years. Of course he is going to be ridiculed along the way. If he finishes 6-6 again he absolutely needs to win the bowl game and wrap up a top 5 recruiting class for 2024 to save his job. He is coaching his 14th game this week, so any talk of firing him after losing to last year’s Pac-12 champion and perennial top-20 team is completely asinine.

What metrics should we be using? Let’s start with time. Nobody is counting the years since a Gator coach was welcome at every high school campus to recruit any player he wanted. That number is 12. It has been 12 years since Urban Meyer earned national respect for all Gator recruiters to visit any campus in America and be taken seriously. High school coaches did not respect Muschamp and McElwain in the same regard and it shows because neither coach recruited well (although Champ did recruit one of the best classes in history by focusing solely on defense). Napier will not get credit for winning over high school coaches because we are selfish little shits only counting wins and top recruiting classes. It is hard, thankless work fixing 12 years of Gator sleazeball coaches burning high school coaches. That is foundational work that only the likes of Napier, Meyer, and Pell have done. Spurrier did not have to recruit like that because like Deion Sanders he was already a HOF hype machine recruiter. It is impossible to apply metrics to this.

Agreed...However, the very fact that even in the light of all the valid points you make, you are at this point now granting a set of quite possible future scenarios (ones that are NOT particularly far off) in which Napier WOULD find himself quite deservedly on tge chopping block.
I didn't like much of the Coach's his delayed post-game presser, where he once again turned to rather mealy-mouthed, "not our fault" coachspeak excuses for what amount to examples of the very lack of preparation and discipline, among both players and coaches, that he came in promising to eliminate.
I am not at all optimistic going forward from here. Others among normally supportive online Gator sites are doing their best to reserve judgement--noting the glaring problems but granting the possibility of the team cleaning things up and turning it around.
The main problem for me was how MANY weaknesses and errors were exposed.
We weren't ready--and it showed at various moments in every phase of the game, all three squads. That just won't DO. The details are being widely dissected...so I won't bother even trying to list them all here.
Best I can manage now personally is "Wait and SEE"-mode.