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Here We Come: 2024 recruiting

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
As this next recruiting class further develops into some kind of "HAUL", I cannot ignore the inescapable truth that "THIS IS HOW IT IS DONE, my friends..."
We have already seen how good this Coaxh is at recognizing not just "TALENT", but of the variety that he in particular is searching for--guys who are not just good, but GOOD FOR THE KIND OF TEAM AND PROGRAM HE IS BUILDING.
Players of character who will likely fit together, help to make this a TEAM OF CHARACTER.
We are already seeing it on the field, slowly coming together and revealing itself even as the talent only JUST begins to shine.
With an elite class now surely on tge way in 2024, and signs already that he and his staff are determined to carry on similarly into '25 and beyond, we have seen this before--right here in the SEC: Saban, Smart, others to a lesser extent for a season or two...but there's a/pattern that starts things, snd a seeming inevitability to what follows.
Of course, these Coaches and their staff's must make good on the promise--develop and bring that TEAM along. I believe, if given the time and continued wisdom and flexibility, Napier and HIS staff will see it through. Yes, he needs a strong in game, onfield OC to help shoulder the fast-changing realities of running a modern offense, in addition to all his other duties as "overall program CEO". Word is that eill happen after the season. But we are seeing certain as in signs of "adaptive change" already even now.
But one of the major factors in our long, slow slide as a "major program" was the deteriorating quality of successive recruiting classes over the years--finally sealed by near-total "blase inattention" on Dan Mullen's part--left us with a strange hodgepodge of "parts that didn't add UP to anything". Billy damn near had to start over ENTIRELY. Worse, there was little sense if "team":
Everyone was out for themselves.
The results were obvious and inevitable: hard to watch--even "mediocrity" was often beyond them.
It's been a rough road, but we're finally starting to see the (albeit SLOW) emergence of character and tenacity among what Coach and his guys are putting together here. I am excited to see what they can do with the team they are now purposefully assembling to compete out there.
Let's give them the chance to prove it, one way or another.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Building national championship teams takes talent and depth with good coaching. The 2006 championship team was comprised of the following recruiting classes:
Meyer
- 2006 - 301.71 (2)
- 2005 - 220.98 (12)
Zook
- 2004 - 260.92 (5)
- 2003 - 298.36 (1)

The 2008 championship team was comprised of the following recruiting classes:
Meyer
- 2008 - 285.13 (5)
- 2007 - 309.52 (1)
- 2006 - 301.71 (2)
- 2005 - 220.98 (12)

The recruiting classes of 2005 and 2006 were fortunate to be part of two championships.

Napier is putting together a class that should finish around #3, so let's plug that into the gonkulator for next year:
Napier
- 2024 - 288.55 (3)
- 2023 - 284.22 (12) - transfer rank 16/ composite rank 13
- 2022 - 249.96 (17) - transfer rank 20/ composite rank 18
Mullen
- 2021 - 277.07 (12) - transfer rank 9/ composite rank 12
If the formula holds, then Napier needs two more solid recruiting classes to win a national championship with 3 top-5 classes and a top-12 class, which puts is at the year 2026. Granted, the formula might change due to the impact of both the transfer portal and the COVID pandemic creating super-seniors. The super-senior phenomenon will be going away soon as the class of 2020 graduates and remaining super-senior year athletes fade away. This means that the transfer portal will still affect overall talent on a team but not to the same degree it does now with hundreds of athletes hopping around programs for six years.

Looking at 2023 transfer rankings we can see that Colorado was #1 with 51 total commitments from the portal. That is an anomaly that only Deion Sanders could pull off, but can he keep doing that? How well will it work for him to keep pulling athletes off other teams rather than recruiting out of high school? The 2023 transfer rankings with regular rankings is shown below:
#1. Colorado 51 78pts --> #29 87 pts
#2. LSU 14 77pts --> #6 92 pts
#3. Ole Miss 23 75 pts --> #23 90 pts
#4. USCw 15 74 pts --> #8 92 pts
#5. Auburn 20 74 pts --> #18 89 pts
#6. FSU 12 72 pts --> #19 90 pts
...
#16. Florida 12 56 pts #13 91 pts

Colorado is showing us that it is hard to win with 51 transfer athletes, especially when the regular recruiting class is ranked outside the top 25. This strategy is understandable for Colorado's situation but is not sustainable. In 2023 LSU was recruiting at top-10 levels out of high school and the transfer portal. Florida's 2023 class might not be good enough to propel the Gators along unless Napier can grab 3 top-3 classes in a row.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
On the bright side, the Gators upgraded the talent pool from 2022 to 2023 by 21% using the 247Sports ratings. The average rating for the incoming class of 2023 is 91.17. The transfer class rating average was 88.75. Together they average 89.96. The 33 athletes brought into the program are 3% better than the athletes who transferred out.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Building national championship teams takes talent and depth with good coaching. The 2006 championship team was comprised of the following recruiting classes:
Meyer
- 2006 - 301.71 (2)
- 2005 - 220.98 (12)
Zook
- 2004 - 260.92 (5)
- 2003 - 298.36 (1)

The 2008 championship team was comprised of the following recruiting classes:
Meyer
- 2008 - 285.13 (5)
- 2007 - 309.52 (1)
- 2006 - 301.71 (2)
- 2005 - 220.98 (12)

The recruiting classes of 2005 and 2006 were fortunate to be part of two championships.

Napier is putting together a class that should finish around #3, so let's plug that into the gonkulator for next year:
Napier
- 2024 - 288.55 (3)
- 2023 - 284.22 (12) - transfer rank 16/ composite rank 13
- 2022 - 249.96 (17) - transfer rank 20/ composite rank 18
Mullen
- 2021 - 277.07 (12) - transfer rank 9/ composite rank 12
If the formula holds, then Napier needs two more solid recruiting classes to win a national championship with 3 top-5 classes and a top-12 class, which puts is at the year 2026. Granted, the formula might change due to the impact of both the transfer portal and the COVID pandemic creating super-seniors. The super-senior phenomenon will be going away soon as the class of 2020 graduates and remaining super-senior year athletes fade away. This means that the transfer portal will still affect overall talent on a team but not to the same degree it does now with hundreds of athletes hopping around programs for six years.

Looking at 2023 transfer rankings we can see that Colorado was #1 with 51 total commitments from the portal. That is an anomaly that only Deion Sanders could pull off, but can he keep doing that? How well will it work for him to keep pulling athletes off other teams rather than recruiting out of high school? The 2023 transfer rankings with regular rankings is shown below:
#1. Colorado 51 78pts --> #29 87 pts
#2. LSU 14 77pts --> #6 92 pts
#3. Ole Miss 23 75 pts --> #23 90 pts
#4. USCw 15 74 pts --> #8 92 pts
#5. Auburn 20 74 pts --> #18 89 pts
#6. FSU 12 72 pts --> #19 90 pts
...
#16. Florida 12 56 pts #13 91 pts

Colorado is showing us that it is hard to win with 51 transfer athletes, especially when the regular recruiting class is ranked outside the top 25. This strategy is understandable for Colorado's situation but is not sustainable. In 2023 LSU was recruiting at top-10 levels out of high school and the transfer portal. Florida's 2023 class might not be good enough to propel the Gators along unless Napier can grab 3 top-3 classes in a row.
Before going any further here let's note and consider two additional points:
(1) In addition to the "Super Senior" there are now growing instances of "Super SOPHS"--a necessary, maybe even inevitable offshoot of the new realities in college football: A coach like Billy Napier comes in facing a TOTAL REBUILD, knowing he will likely (and to a great a extent, from his P.O.V., in terms of a "cultural change", necessarily) almost immediately lose a large portion of the team to the portal--meaning that he is COUNTING on bringing in and PLAYING as many of the most talented freshmen as he can. The result: the youngest unit in major college football--and one that will continue in this way for another season or two: A young, tight and experienced team of STARS is likely by years 3 and 4...We are beginning to witness this very plan playing out quietly and effectively right now.
(2) I return once again to this concept of "TEAM building"--perhaps itself embodied in the word, "intangibles". This Coach (and his staff), it seems clear to me, has a particular penchant for finding and landing not just "talent", but talent that suits their plan and will ultimately fit the TEAM they are trying to build over time.
We are just starting to see the intermittent first signs of where this is aimed. Because the "parts", these PLAYERS are so young, the results thus far are inconsistent, up and own from week to week--for a LOT of reasons...but I believe they are there, when one steps back and recognizes more and more small moments begin to be strung together for whole stirring stretches. Watching Graham Mertz and Co. rise up from 10 points down late on the road to come back and WIN is one of those...I expect a whole lot more that far surpass it in seasons ahead--but THIS is where, and HOW, it begins.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
On the bright side, the Gators upgraded the talent pool from 2022 to 2023 by 21% using the 247Sports ratings. The average rating for the incoming class of 2023 is 91.17. The transfer class rating average was 88.75. Together they average 89.96. The 33 athletes brought into the program are 3% better than the athletes who transferred out.
I don't know how to "translate" that "3% improvement" into a practical applicant, but (as usual) I DO know what "my eyes tell me":
We are DEFINITELY better than whatever "the overall exchange" would have us believe statistically. It sure fooled most "outside prognosticators" coming IN! We aren't world-beaters yet, but we AREN'T the hopeless sh*t-show they all pegged us for either.
We aren't THAT bad, certainly not all the TIME--and it seems we do have "our moments" here and there now too. Oh, we'll look bad again before this season is finished, I'm sure...but something tells me we'll have a few "moments of clarity" as well. Those will have to do, have to sustain us all for now. I don't know if "WAIT'LL NEXT YEAR!" is the proper cry as of yet--but it may well have TOTAL resonance by NEXT season.
 

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