The CFP selection will occur in a few hours. NCAA football fans around the country are lighting up the discussion boards, typing in CAPS LOCK at one another, and letting their emotions guide spirited discussion. I am an engineer by trade, completely devoid of emotion and without a team in the top-4 discussion, so here is my analysis of the CFP 2018 based on the official CFP selection guidance [PDF].
Here is the criteria straight from the CFP.
Here is my analysis based on the official protocol. I took some liberties in interpreting the selection criteria above, since the committee did not specify whether "championships won" needed to be from the former BCS automatic qualifiers (what we call the Power 5 today), nor did they specify method for assessing strength of schedule. One thing that helps us read between the lines is this line from the official protocol document:
Since there were 10 conference commissioners plus the Notre Dame athletic director, it stands to reason that the selection committee does not differentiate between P5 conference champion and any other conference champion.

Here is the criteria straight from the CFP.
When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
- Championships won
- Strength of schedule
- Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
- Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incentivizing margin of victory)
Here is my analysis based on the official protocol. I took some liberties in interpreting the selection criteria above, since the committee did not specify whether "championships won" needed to be from the former BCS automatic qualifiers (what we call the Power 5 today), nor did they specify method for assessing strength of schedule. One thing that helps us read between the lines is this line from the official protocol document:
When creating the College Football Playoff in June of 2012, the 11 university presidents, 10 conference commissioners and Notre Dame athletics directors unanimously adopted the preceding document which established the guiding principles and the basis for selecting and ranking teams. When the selection committee later added more details and specific operating procedures, those resulted in this full “College Football Playoff Selection Committee Protocol.”
Since there were 10 conference commissioners plus the Notre Dame athletic director, it stands to reason that the selection committee does not differentiate between P5 conference champion and any other conference champion.
- Alabama (13-0).
- P5 conference champion.
- 0 quality losses.
- 3 quality wins over #18 Mississippi State, #19 Texas A&M, and #4 Georgia.
- Alabama is unequivocally the #1 team in the nation. There is no logical argument here.
- Clemson (13-0).
- P5 conference champion.
- 0 quality losses.
- 2 quality wins over #19 Texas A&M, #20 Syracuse. +0.5 quality points for beating the conference runner up.
- Clemson needed help from #19 Texas A&M to boost their resume, but there is no reason to rank them lower than #2.
- Notre Dame (12-0).
- Not a P5 conference champion.
- 0 quality losses.
- 3 quality wins over #7 Michigan, #21 Northwestern, #20 Syracuse.
- There is some concern that Notre Dame only played 12 games and that they did not play anyone, but I refer those folks to the official selection protocol. They have a decent strength of schedule based on beating 3 ranked FBS teams. They have no FCS teams on their schedule, and the best mix of P5 and G6 teams.
- Oklahoma (12-1).
- P5 conference champion.
- 1 quality loss to #14 Texas, later avenged.
- 3 quality wins over #14 Texas, #23 Iowa State, #16 West Virginia.
- Oklahoma essentially erased its loss by beating the team that beat them, and doing it on a bigger stage with more at stake. This certainly speaks for their strength of schedule.
- Ohio State (12-1).
- P5 conference champion.
- 1 bad loss to unranked Purdue.
- 3 quality wins over #12 Penn State, #7 Michigan, #21 Northwestern.
- Ohio State shat the bed by losing to Purdue. There is a good argument to rank them at #5, but they could also be placed below Georgia or even UCF. At this point it does not matter, because they eliminated themselves from the CFP top-4 by losing to an unranked team.
- Georgia (11-2).
- Not a P5 conference champion.
- 2 quality losses to #1 Alabama and #10 LSU.
- 3 quality wins over #9 Florida, #14 Kentucky, #24 Missouri.
- Georgia certainly has a valid argument to be ranked in the top-4 CFP, but that one loss to LSU looms over them. Georgia might beat any team in the top-4 CFP, including Alabama in a rematch, but in the spirit of the official CFP selection protocol I think they get ranked at #6, maybe #5 at most.
- UCF (13-0).
- Not a P5 conference champion, but is a conference champion nonetheless.
- 0 quality losses.
- 0 quality wins.
- If UCF gets ranked above #7, I would be highly surprised. Sure, they are a conference champion without a loss, but they have ZERO quality wins. ZERO. Even some of their wins against unranked opponents makes them the Cupcake Kings of 2018.
- Michigan (10-2).
- Not a P5 conference champion.
- 2 quality losses to #3 Notre Dame, #6 Ohio State.
- 2 quality wins over #12 Penn State, #21 Northwestern.
- Michigan is the first team in the ranking with absolutely zero claim to a top-4 CFP spot. I would argue that #5 Ohio State is the first team with zero claim to a top-4 CFP spot, but I know that I am in the minority there. Based on the cold, hard facts outlined in the selection protocol, Michigan has no claim to the CFP playoff, nor do they have a claim to a higher ranking.
- Florida (9-3).
- Not a P5 conference champion.
- 3 quality losses to #4 Georgia, #13 Kentucky, #24 Missouri.
- 2 quality wins over #10 LSU, #18 Mississippi State.
- Florida is happy to be here. The Gators were not even ranked by some preseason and early season polls. Even if the Gators had beaten #24 Missouri and #13 Kentucky, this team that was 4-7 last year is not ready yet to beat Georgia or anyone ranked in the top 4.
- LSU (9-3).
- Not a P5 conference champion.
- 3 quality losses to #1 Alabama, #9 Florida, #19 Texas A&M
- 2 quality wins over #4 Georgia, #18 Mississippi State
- LSU has a similar story as Florida, except they were ranked in the top 5 at one point. They probably should not have lost to aTm, but even with the referees gifting the Aggies that win, they lost outright to Florida and Alabama.