2023 Schedule FPI and Win Probability

[Escambia94]

The FPI trending data shows the Gators are still slightly above average. Missouri is getting better but they still have an FPI below Tennessee, which is a team that Florida beat. Oddly enough, Florida is above Kentucky, which is a team that beat them.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
UF	9.9	8.8	9.3	10.8	9.1	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.4
@ Utah	14.9	15.7	15.5	14.0	11.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	12.3
McNeese	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0
Tenn	15.2	18.1	13.1	11.7	13.8	15.1	15.1	15.5	15.6
Charlotte	-9.2	-10.8	-10.3	-12.9	-10.2	-10.4	-9.9	-12.1	-10.6
@ UK	9.7	10.9	5.8	6.3	7.2	8.9	6.3	4.7	4.8
Vandy	-2.8	-5.8	-6.1	-7.4	-8.4	-8.3	-9.2	-7.8	-7.8
@ SC	5.6	5.3	5.5	7.5	8.1	6.4	6.7	6.5	5.2
vs UGA	27.4	24.7	24.5	24.3	23.3	22.5	24.3	22.6	22.5
Ark	9.0	7.6	7.5	5.4	7.6	7.1	7.6	8.3	7.5
@ LSU	22.1	16.3	18.2	21.0	18.6	17.3	17.5	18.8	21.7
@ Mizz	6.4	6.9	4.1	5.5	6.3	7.2	6.6	8.8	10.9
FSU	15.0	19.8	23.0	19.8	19.9	19.9	19.6	22.2	22.7

Compared to this time last year, the Gators are slightly better.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
UF 2022​	9.30​	10.60​	8.00​	5.10​	6.20​	6.80​	6.60​	6.60​	6.40​
UF 2023​	9.90​	8.80​	9.30​	10.80​	9.10​	6.90​	7.10​	7.30​	7.40​

 

[Escambia94]

The FPI slipped slightly as expected and is currently tracking where we were this point a year ago.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
UF	9.9	8.8	9.3	10.8	9.1	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.4	6.3
@ Utah	14.9	15.7	15.5	14.0	11.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	12.3	10.3
McNeese	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0
Tenn	15.2	18.1	13.1	11.7	13.8	15.1	15.1	15.5	15.6	15.5
Charlotte	-9.2	-10.8	-10.3	-12.9	-10.2	-10.4	-9.9	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9
@ UK	9.7	10.9	5.8	6.3	7.2	8.9	6.3	4.7	4.8	4.8
Vandy	-2.8	-5.8	-6.1	-7.4	-8.4	-8.3	-9.2	-7.8	-7.8	-8.0
@ SC	5.6	5.3	5.5	7.5	8.1	6.4	6.7	6.5	5.2	4.7
vs UGA	27.4	24.7	24.5	24.3	23.3	22.5	24.3	22.6	22.5	23.1
Ark	9.0	7.6	7.5	5.4	7.6	7.1	7.6	8.3	7.5	7.2
@ LSU	22.1	16.3	18.2	21.0	18.6	17.3	17.5	18.8	21.7	21.3
@ Mizz	6.4	6.9	4.1	5.5	6.3	7.2	6.6	8.8	10.9	10.8
FSU	15.0	19.8	23.0	19.8	19.9	19.9	19.6	22.2	22.7	22.9

 

[DRU2012]

I'm just sweating out that "one more win" at this point...As for anything beyond THAT, well, I don't anticipate even EXTENSIVE prayer helping us much there--only a seriously dedicated redoubled effort at pre-game prep and in-game intensity are liable to position us for a seventh victory this season.

 

[Escambia94]

Well. Just like last year the Gators are sliding downhill, except this time they have little hope of bowl eligibility.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11
UF	9.9	8.8	9.3	10.8	9.1	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.4	6.3	6.4
@ Utah	14.9	15.7	15.5	14.0	11.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	12.3	10.3	12.9
McNeese	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0
Tenn	15.2	18.1	13.1	11.7	13.8	15.1	15.1	15.5	15.6	15.5	17.7
Charlotte	-9.2	-10.8	-10.3	-12.9	-10.2	-10.4	-9.9	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9	-12.8
@ UK	9.7	10.9	5.8	6.3	7.2	8.9	6.3	4.7	4.8	4.8	6.8
Vandy	-2.8	-5.8	-6.1	-7.4	-8.4	-8.3	-9.2	-7.8	-7.8	-8.0	-7.7
@ SC	5.6	5.3	5.5	7.5	8.1	6.4	6.7	6.5	5.2	4.7	4.5
vs UGA	27.4	24.7	24.5	24.3	23.3	22.5	24.3	22.6	22.5	23.1	22.7
Ark	9.0	7.6	7.5	5.4	7.6	7.1	7.6	8.3	7.5	7.2	7.4
@ LSU	22.1	16.3	18.2	21.0	18.6	17.3	17.5	18.8	21.7	21.3	22.4
@ Mizz	6.4	6.9	4.1	5.5	6.3	7.2	6.6	8.8	10.9	10.8	11.6
FSU	15.0	19.8	23.0	19.8	19.9	19.9	19.6	22.2	22.7	22.9	22.6

 

[Escambia94]

I am only doing this for historical purposes. This is painful.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
UF	9.9	8.8	9.3	10.8	9.1	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.4	6.3	6.4	6.2
@ Utah	14.9	15.7	15.5	14.0	11.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	12.3	10.3	12.9	13.1
McNeese	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0
Tenn	15.2	18.1	13.1	11.7	13.8	15.1	15.1	15.5	15.6	15.5	17.7	15.6
Charlotte	-9.2	-10.8	-10.3	-12.9	-10.2	-10.4	-9.9	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9	-12.8	-12.4
@ UK	9.7	10.9	5.8	6.3	7.2	8.9	6.3	4.7	4.8	4.8	6.8	6.0
Vandy	-2.8	-5.8	-6.1	-7.4	-8.4	-8.3	-9.2	-7.8	-7.8	-8.0	-7.7	-9.2
@ SC	5.6	5.3	5.5	7.5	8.1	6.4	6.7	6.5	5.2	4.7	4.5	6.6
vs UGA	27.4	24.7	24.5	24.3	23.3	22.5	24.3	22.6	22.5	23.1	22.7	24.4
Ark	9.0	7.6	7.5	5.4	7.6	7.1	7.6	8.3	7.5	7.2	7.4	4.5
@ LSU	22.1	16.3	18.2	21.0	18.6	17.3	17.5	18.8	21.7	21.3	22.4	20.2
@ Mizz	6.4	6.9	4.1	5.5	6.3	7.2	6.6	8.8	10.9	10.8	11.6	14.0
FSU	15.0	19.8	23.0	19.8	19.9	19.9	19.6	22.2	22.7	22.9	22.6	22.0

 

[Escambia94]

On the bright side, Florida does not suck at the Vanderbilt level. The data shows that Florida started off about as good as Kentucky, Arkansas, Missouri, and South Carolina, but Missouri improved to the next tier containing Utah and Tennessee.

 

[Escambia94]

This is the last one of these that I will need to suffer through.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
UF	9.9	8.8	9.3	10.8	9.1	6.9	7.1	7.3	7.4	6.3	6.4	6.2	6.4
@ Utah	14.9	15.7	15.5	14.0	11.5	10.3	10.1	11.2	12.3	10.3	12.9	13.1	11.3
McNeese	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0	-15.0
Tenn	15.2	18.1	13.1	11.7	13.8	15.1	15.1	15.5	15.6	15.5	17.7	15.6	14.3
Charlotte	-9.2	-10.8	-10.3	-12.9	-10.2	-10.4	-9.9	-12.1	-10.6	-12.9	-12.8	-12.4	-13.3
@ UK	9.7	10.9	5.8	6.3	7.2	8.9	6.3	4.7	4.8	4.8	6.8	6.0	6.2
Vandy	-2.8	-5.8	-6.1	-7.4	-8.4	-8.3	-9.2	-7.8	-7.8	-8.0	-7.7	-9.2	-9.4
@ SC	5.6	5.3	5.5	7.5	8.1	6.4	6.7	6.5	5.2	4.7	4.5	6.6	6.5
vs UGA	27.4	24.7	24.5	24.3	23.3	22.5	24.3	22.6	22.5	23.1	22.7	24.4	25.5
Ark	9.0	7.6	7.5	5.4	7.6	7.1	7.6	8.3	7.5	7.2	7.4	4.5	3.9
@ LSU	22.1	16.3	18.2	21.0	18.6	17.3	17.5	18.8	21.7	21.3	22.4	20.2	20.6
@ Mizz	6.4	6.9	4.1	5.5	6.3	7.2	6.6	8.8	10.9	10.8	11.6	14.0	13.6
FSU	15.0	19.8	23.0	19.8	19.9	19.9	19.6	22.2	22.7	22.9	22.6	22.0	20.8

How does this compare to last year? The bad news is that after 2023 week 11, the Gators regressed into a worse team than last year--mostly due to the defense. In week 4 the Gators had the #14 defense in the nation. By week 11 the defensive ranking was dropping into the 100s.

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13
UF 2022	9.30	10.60	8.00	5.10	6.20	6.80	6.60	6.60	6.40	6.40	6.40	6.60	6.80
UF 2023	9.90	8.80	9.30	10.80	9.10	6.90	7.10	7.30	7.40	6.30	6.40	6.20	6.40