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2023 Schedule FPI and Win Probability

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Early in the pre-season the Gators are projected to win 7 games this year using FPI. By August, the predictions dropped to 6 games.
OpponentsProbability win May '23Probability win Aug '23
@ Utah.297.000
McNeese.997.992
Tennessee.517.268
Charlotte.963.978
@ Kentucky.481.338
Vanderbilt.904.940
@ South Carolina.589.536
vs Georgia.139.074
Arkansas.662.632
@ LSU.185.182
@ Missouri.581.478
FSU.503.220
Total6.8 wins5.6 wins

3-9 - < 1%
4-8 - 3%
5-7 - 15%
6-6 - 17%
7-5 - 26%
8-4 - 27%
9-3 - 8%
10-2 - 4%
11-1 - < 1%
 
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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
FPI Tracker
123456789
UF9.98.89.310.89.1
@ Utah14.915.715.514.011.5
McNeese-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0
Tenn15.218.113.111.713.8
Charlotte-9.2-10.8-10.3-12.9-10.2
@ UK9.710.95.86.37.2
Vandy-2.8-5.8-6.1-7.4-8.4
@ SC5.65.35.57.58.1
vs UGA27.424.724.524.323.3
Ark9.07.67.55.47.6
@ LSU22.116.318.221.018.6
@ Mizz6.46.94.15.55.2
FSU15.019.823.019.819.9

Week 1 changes: Florida, SC, and LSU lose a few FPI points. Utah, Tennessee, and FSU gain a few points.
 
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DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I don't know WHAT to make of our coming year, OR the 2023 schedule's likely results.
I understand why we are so lowly rated, AND cannot really argue with the near-universal "under-50%" predictions regarding our eventual record: We're facing the toughest schedule in the country, after all, and after the season(s) we've just had it all seems to add up...
However: There are other "signs and portents" that could produce some surprises--even "shock the world", as some have blurted.
So like many of y'all I will be quietly hoping for the best as we head into August, camp, and just a few weeks till kicking things off at Utah.
Still a tough haul, one "long and grinding road" to the VERY TOP"--As a Gator, the only place worth shooting for.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
...And BTW:
Personally, I am to a major degree turning my back on most of the online sites' analyses and associated rankings of prospective recruits.
After that debacle a week or two back when On3 and others suddenly reclassified a huge chunk of the 2024 class (in particular it seemed chose to bump GATOR PROSPECTS DOWN SEVERELY), I looked into the background factors that turn out to affect such "evaluations" to the greatest degree. I won't go into the details here as to the myriad complex (and SELFISHLY BIASED) factors that in quiet truth most determine such dramatic "reshuffling"; suffice it to say simply that from an admittedly GATORCENTRIC P.O.V. I AM hereforth mainly "turning my back" on all that and instead trusting in Billy and his staff's evaluation of film, character and "upside", all in light of who and what we need and where they know we are headed.
My advice then to all of you is to NOT take it all too much to heart after all: Our current 2024 class is every bit as much an encouraging movement forward as we thought. We are still behind the one program we will HAVE to eventually pass...but we are passing everyone else and at the very least now have UGA squarely in our sites ahead. We will GET there--it just probably won't quite be in THIS recruiting cycle.
But we are if anything gathering momentum now, and THEY are showing signs of "cracks in their armor"...something that experience over the years gives US a certain perspective on. It is too early for me to come right out and say what "deep down hope" whispers (something like, "Let's proceed to do to THEM what they've done to Bama!")--but naturally it is our actual goal, some would say our "manifest destiny". That's exactly why "WON'T BACK DOWN" is the TP song that is now sung along with "We Are The Boys" after the 3rd quarter.
OK. Yes, admittedly prob still too early in this race to start crowing loudly. It's a marathon, not a sprint at this point. I can say it here, I'm thinking--but you won't catch me saying it somewhere like Twitter ("X"???), Gator Breakdown or wherever.
I do NOT care to contribute ANYTHING to the knee-jerk "prematurely inflated expectations" so inevitably characteristic of Gator Nation!
So agree or disagree as y'all see fit here, but understand that I'm NOT getting ahead of myself:
I can read and grasp the implications of our 2023 schedule as well as anyone. I would consider a resulting EIGHT win season a triumph, at this point--and can easily see us falling short of THAT, believe me. All depends on IF (1) the DEFENSE improves as much as we hope/expect, and
(2) Mertz actually fits and further develops as Coach's onfield proxy running this offense (with the stress on "RUNS", all things considered).
A whole LOT of "IF" there--but IF enough WERE to go right, Hey, perhaps we're NOT "5th in the East" after all. Not exactly the "Big Buzz" we're used to seeing/feeling heading into a season historically, but it is probably best to go for "down to earth/realistic", as opposed to "swaggering hyperbole" at this point (LOL).
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
I think 6-6 or 7-5 sounds about right, surprised that the UT game is over 50%. The most exciting thing for the Gators next season is to see whether or not Trask and A-Rich win starting jobs for their teams. I hope I'm wrong though I'm sure we would see them win their starting jobs.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The Gators only dropped by 1.1 FPI, but a few other teams saw large movement in FPI that brought the expected win total from 6.8 to 5.6.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I just don't know WHAT to make of these "underlying various statistical analyses" anymore--especially in the way they are being thrown about in the service of the kind of massive reshuffling that the reality of "The Morning After" inevitably brings to the table in ANY event!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Florida’s FPI is took a slight step back relative to other teams on the schedule. The Gators should be favored against every team on the schedule on neutral ground the exception of UGA, LSU, and FSU. Kentucky will probably be favored at home.
123456789
UF9.98.89.310.89.16.9
@ Utah14.915.715.514.011.510.3
McNeese-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0
Tenn15.218.113.111.713.815.1
Charlotte-9.2-10.8-10.3-12.9-10.2-10.4
@ UK9.710.95.86.37.28.9
Vandy-2.8-5.8-6.1-7.4-8.4-8.3
@ SC5.65.35.57.58.16.4
vs UGA27.424.724.524.323.322.5
Ark9.07.67.55.47.67.1
@ LSU22.116.318.221.018.617.3
@ Mizz6.46.94.15.56.37.2
FSU15.019.823.019.819.919.9
 
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DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I remain uncertain how to evaluate the "FPI" and how to analyse its relation to that of other teams, so I zm left with my usual more linear/logical analysis:
I am NOT real optimistic with regard to our 2nd road game next Saturday. I'm not writing us off, but I just cannot muster a whole lot of confidence with respect to the trending weaknesses and inconsistencies with this season's squads' progress thus far...and sadly, for the first time the main reason I am currently feeling that way has more to do with my latest impressions of our Coach than anything else.
His repeated statements and general defensiveness after the Charlotte game, coupled with certain obvious continued problem areas, even REGRESSIONS, have left me back in the "reserve judgement mode" I defaulted to after Utah, weeks back. I think we know a little more--but I remain somewhat CONFUSED by it all.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I remain uncertain how to evaluate the "FPI" and how to analyse its relation to that of other teams, so I zm left with my usual more linear/logical analysis:
I am NOT real optimistic with regard to our 2nd road game next Saturday. I'm not writing us off, but I just cannot muster a whole lot of confidence with respect to the trending weaknesses and inconsistencies with this season's squads' progress thus far...and sadly, for the first time the main reason I am currently feeling that way has more to do with my latest impressions of our Coach than anything else.
His repeated statements and general defensiveness after the Charlotte game, coupled with certain obvious continued problem areas, even REGRESSIONS, have left me back in the "reserve judgement mode" I defaulted to after Utah, weeks back. I think we know a little more--but I remain somewhat CONFUSED by it all.
FPI is just another metric that does exactly what you described—tracks growth and regression of each team without the subjectivity of AP and coach’s polls. The FPI is used by ESPN to predict the win percentage between any two teams.

I also use Sagarin ratings as an extension of polls, except Sagarin ratings can be used to model each team like chess players.

Tracking these is better than saying Florida will lose against Tennessee, Kentucky, etc because they did not run up the score on McNeese or Charlotte.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
If the Tennessee game was not a fluke then the Gators have a decent chance of winning more than 6 games. Before the Tennessee game our probability of win (P(W)) was 7.81%. The P(W) for the remaining schedule:
UK 47.92%
Vandy 95.91%
SC 44.81%
UGA 10.83%
Arky 63.61%
LSU 14.82%
Mizz 51.39%
FSU 23.91%

I am not saying Florida will win all those, but there are definitely winnable games barring injuries.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
If the Tennessee game was not a fluke then the Gators have a decent chance of winning more than 6 games. Before the Tennessee game our probability of win (P(W)) was 7.81%. The P(W) for the remaining schedule:
UK 47.92%
Vandy 95.91%
SC 44.81%
UGA 10.83%
Arky 63.61%
LSU 14.82%
Mizz 51.39%
FSU 23.91%

I am not saying Florida will win all those, but there are definitely winnable games barring injuries.
OK...But unfortunately, even armed WITH these metrics (and assuming they do have relevance in "relative" terms) we are left with important "missing information" in evaluating the current outlook (as in "how to judge present and FUTURE strengths") for this season's team.
As always, only a number of elusively SHIFTING factors, to be determined and revealed in subsequent games, can begin to flesh that out.
"That's what makes a horse race!"
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Florida’s FPI is took a large step back relative to other teams on the schedule. After the Tennessee game the Gators were projected to be favored against every team on the schedule on neutral ground the exception of UGA, LSU, and FSU. Vegas and ESPN agreed to not favor Florida over Kentucky, and we can see why. Based on week 6 projections the Gators should be the underdogs in the following games: UGA (-15), LSU (-10), and FSU (-13). The line should be even against South Carolina (except for +3 home field advantage to the Cocks), Arkansas, and Missouri (except for +3 home field advantage to the Tigers).
UF​
0​
@ Utah​
-3.40​
McNeese​
21.90​
Tenn​
-8.20​
Charlotte​
17.30​
@ UK​
-2.00​
Vandy​
15.20​
@ SC​
0.50​
vs UGA​
-15.60​
Ark​
-0.20​
@ LSU​
-10.40​
@ Mizz​
-0.30​
FSU​
-13.00​

123456789
UF9.98.89.310.89.16.97.1
@ Utah14.915.715.514.011.510.310.1
McNeese-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0
Tenn15.218.113.111.713.815.115.1
Charlotte-9.2-10.8-10.3-12.9-10.2-10.4-9.9
@ UK9.710.95.86.37.28.96.3
Vandy-2.8-5.8-6.1-7.4-8.4-8.3-9.2
@ SC5.65.35.57.58.16.46.7
vs UGA27.424.724.524.323.322.524.3
Ark9.07.67.55.47.67.17.6
@ LSU22.116.318.221.018.617.317.518.8
@ Mizz6.46.94.15.56.37.26.68.8
FSU15.019.823.019.819.919.919.622.2
 
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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The Gators got a slight bump in Football Power Index after beating South Carolina. All remaining teams on the schedule have a higher FPI. Florida might be favored against Arkansas only due to home field advantage.
123456789
UF9.98.89.310.89.16.97.17.3
@ Utah14.915.715.514.011.510.310.111.2
McNeese-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0-15.0
Tenn15.218.113.111.713.815.115.115.5
Charlotte-9.2-10.8-10.3-12.9-10.2-10.4-9.9-12.1
@ UK9.710.95.86.37.28.96.34.7
Vandy-2.8-5.8-6.1-7.4-8.4-8.3-9.2-7.8
@ SC5.65.35.57.58.16.46.76.5
vs UGA27.424.724.524.323.322.524.322.6
Ark9.07.67.55.47.67.17.68.3
@ LSU22.116.318.221.018.617.317.518.8
@ Mizz6.46.94.15.56.37.26.68.8
FSU15.019.823.019.819.919.919.622.2
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Well, if we can just eke out a coupla more wins from the formidable group still facing us this season, I hope that (REGARDLESS of what anyone ELSE has to say about it) at least I will have the grace and humility to maintain a sense of perspective--and APPRECIATE a resulting 7-5 record that exceeds all PREseason prognostication.
We haven't yet surpassed the original "5.5 wins" the bettors had us pegged for back at Week 0, after all...Me, I'M still in "Let's wait and SEE"-mode. While painful at times (too MUCH of the time!), AGAINST "the odds" this team HAS brought us a few thrilling moments so far, surprisingly enough: We have danced on the razor's edge between disaster and joy.
What we HAVEN'T felt yet is "quiet confidence": Until we have a team and program where THAT is the dominant theme, I suppose we'll remain on this Rollercoaster ride.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Most metrics project the Gators going 5-7 this year, so it only takes one more win to match expectations (not Gator fans, I mean Vegas and statisticians). Florida did steal one by beating Tennessee, so Vegas and statisticians believe Florida will beat Arkansas as expected and steal another win. According to the metrics, the steal could occur with LSU or FSU. Missouri is surprisingly balanced and it might take a lot to upset them. Statistically the only team that looks entirely unbeatable is Georgia. 6-6 is the statistical expected value, but 7-5 is within the realm of possibility.
SagarinFPITot Off RankTot Def RankResultProjection
Georgia​
6​
22.6​
5​
6​
L​
FSU​
10​
22.2​
24​
56​
L​
LSU​
11​
18.8​
2​
110​
L​
Tennessee​
13​
15.5​
33​
17​
W​
L​
Utah​
21​
11.2​
115​
9​
L​
L​
Missouri​
37​
8.8​
27​
47​
L​
Arkansas​
28​
8.3​
116​
51​
W​
Florida​
39​
7.3​
47​
20​
N/A​
N/A​
South Carolina​
40​
6.5​
57​
121​
W​
W​
Kentucky​
47​
4.7​
92​
46​
L​
L​
Vanderbilt​
110​
-7.8​
97​
116​
W​
W​
Charlotte​
141​
-12.1​
123​
76​
W​
W​
McNeese​
225​
-15​
200​
200​
W​
W​
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Since August it has been my feeling that a 7-5 record would be a promising outcome against this schedule--a "clear step forward".
It remains somewhat of a challenge--but its realization would remain cause for optimism.
We have had to battle doggedly for EVERYTHING this season.
The results are telling:
It continues to shape us, and I believe it will serve us well as time goes on.
Among its many positive effects has been a definite TOUGHNESS that continues to take hold. There are certain "intangibles" developing among the players who have "dug in and stuck it out": A real "band of brothers" thing.
That COULD have enormous effect on future continued growth and success.
 
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Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Since August it has been my feeling that a 7-5 record would be a promising outcome against this schedule--a "clear step forward".
It remains somewhat of a challenge--but its realization would remain cause for optimism.
We have had to battle doggedly for EVERYTHING this season.
The results are telling:
It continues to shape us, and I believe it will serve us well as time goes on.
Among its many positive effects has been a definite TOUGHNESS that continues to take hold. There are certain "intangibles" developing among the players who have "dug in and stuck it out": A real "band of brothers" thing.
That COULD have enormous effect on future continued growth and success.

I think you are right about the intangibles. Florida is performing slightly above its projection, mostly because of the toughness and resilience of these players--specifically the youngsters that Napier recruited to Florida. Remember that the Gators have played the most freshman out of all 135 teams. The Gators no seniors recruited by Mullen, and only 2-3 juniors from Mullen's classes. The upperclassmen are transfers that Napier brought in. In the COVID era there are plenty of teams with players older than 21, or what we call super seniors. Florida has the fewest number of super seniors among all 135 teams. The takeaway is that the Gators are very young and somewhat unpredictable or unknown because of that youth.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I think you are right about the intangibles. Florida is performing slightly above its projection, mostly because of the toughness and resilience of these players--specifically the youngsters that Napier recruited to Florida. Remember that the Gators have played the most freshman out of all 135 teams. The Gators no seniors recruited by Mullen, and only 2-3 juniors from Mullen's classes. The upperclassmen are transfers that Napier brought in. In the COVID era there are plenty of teams with players older than 21, or what we call super seniors. Florida has the fewest number of super seniors among all 135 teams. The takeaway is that the Gators are very young and somewhat unpredictable or unknown because of that youth.
...Yes--AND: As time goes on that is going to make a bigger difference than most currently realize. Most fans, like the media prognosticators they take their cue from, see things in very short-sighted, instant gratification/"I want it NOW"- terms. We are just beginning to see "the method to Billy's madness": Where others will have to keep finding new senior transfers to keep whatever transient success they find going, WE will more and more build a tougher, tighter TEAM.
I suspect MORE young players with elite talent will want to be a part of it. We already see our Coach's acumen in choosing to go after guys who FIT this plan, too. Note how his staff go after prospects who GAIN in stature, in public ratings and rankings as time goes on. They're not CHASING stars--they go out and find "their kind of guys". It's a longer, slower process, but done right can lead to a solid, balanced foundation--and eventually, dominance.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The Gators have a bye week, but the data analysts are still hard at work assessing the season. By most metrics only Georgia has remained steady in performance. LSU had the wildest swings from top-10 CFP contender to has-been. FSU has climbed from a top-10 team to a top-3 team. The Gators are still a top-25 team with occasional flashes of a top-20 team.

The top chart shows the FPI tracker for 2023 through week 8. The bottom chart shows the FPI tracker for all of 2022. Some interesting observations:
- Kentucky is getting weaker each week and they are at about the same FPI as last year.
- FSU is getting stronger each week, and they are 5 FPI points above last year.
- Florida is relatively stable in FPI throughout 2023 and relative to 2022.
week8-espn-fpi-track.png

Screenshot from 2022-10-24 08-07-13.png
 
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