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2023 Schedule FPI and Win Probability


Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
The Gators are projected to win 7 games this year using FPI, which was a rather accurate predictor last year for the most part.
OpponentsProbability win May '23Probability win Aug '23
@ Utah.297.000
@ Kentucky.481.338
@ South Carolina.589.536
vs Georgia.139.074
@ LSU.185.182
@ Missouri.581.478
Total6.8 wins5.6 wins

3-9 - < 1%
4-8 - 3%
5-7 - 15%
6-6 - 17%
7-5 - 26%
8-4 - 27%
9-3 - 8%
10-2 - 4%
11-1 - < 1%
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Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
FPI Tracker
@ Utah14.915.7
@ UK9.710.9
@ SC5.65.3
vs UGA27.424.7
@ LSU22.116.3
@ Mizz6.46.9

Week 1 changes: Florida, SC, and LSU lose a few FPI points. Utah, Tennessee, and FSU gain a few points.
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Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I don't know WHAT to make of our coming year, OR the 2023 schedule's likely results.
I understand why we are so lowly rated, AND cannot really argue with the near-universal "under-50%" predictions regarding our eventual record: We're facing the toughest schedule in the country, after all, and after the season(s) we've just had it all seems to add up...
However: There are other "signs and portents" that could produce some surprises--even "shock the world", as some have blurted.
So like many of y'all I will be quietly hoping for the best as we head into August, camp, and just a few weeks till kicking things off at Utah.
Still a tough haul, one "long and grinding road" to the VERY TOP"--As a Gator, the only place worth shooting for.


Super Moderator
Staff member
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...And BTW:
Personally, I am to a major degree turning my back on most of the online sites' analyses and associated rankings of prospective recruits.
After that debacle a week or two back when On3 and others suddenly reclassified a huge chunk of the 2024 class (in particular it seemed chose to bump GATOR PROSPECTS DOWN SEVERELY), I looked into the background factors that turn out to affect such "evaluations" to the greatest degree. I won't go into the details here as to the myriad complex (and SELFISHLY BIASED) factors that in quiet truth most determine such dramatic "reshuffling"; suffice it to say simply that from an admittedly GATORCENTRIC P.O.V. I AM hereforth mainly "turning my back" on all that and instead trusting in Billy and his staff's evaluation of film, character and "upside", all in light of who and what we need and where they know we are headed.
My advice then to all of you is to NOT take it all too much to heart after all: Our current 2024 class is every bit as much an encouraging movement forward as we thought. We are still behind the one program we will HAVE to eventually pass...but we are passing everyone else and at the very least now have UGA squarely in our sites ahead. We will GET there--it just probably won't quite be in THIS recruiting cycle.
But we are if anything gathering momentum now, and THEY are showing signs of "cracks in their armor"...something that experience over the years gives US a certain perspective on. It is too early for me to come right out and say what "deep down hope" whispers (something like, "Let's proceed to do to THEM what they've done to Bama!")--but naturally it is our actual goal, some would say our "manifest destiny". That's exactly why "WON'T BACK DOWN" is the TP song that is now sung along with "We Are The Boys" after the 3rd quarter.
OK. Yes, admittedly prob still too early in this race to start crowing loudly. It's a marathon, not a sprint at this point. I can say it here, I'm thinking--but you won't catch me saying it somewhere like Twitter ("X"???), Gator Breakdown or wherever.
I do NOT care to contribute ANYTHING to the knee-jerk "prematurely inflated expectations" so inevitably characteristic of Gator Nation!
So agree or disagree as y'all see fit here, but understand that I'm NOT getting ahead of myself:
I can read and grasp the implications of our 2023 schedule as well as anyone. I would consider a resulting EIGHT win season a triumph, at this point--and can easily see us falling short of THAT, believe me. All depends on IF (1) the DEFENSE improves as much as we hope/expect, and
(2) Mertz actually fits and further develops as Coach's onfield proxy running this offense (with the stress on "RUNS", all things considered).
A whole LOT of "IF" there--but IF enough WERE to go right, Hey, perhaps we're NOT "5th in the East" after all. Not exactly the "Big Buzz" we're used to seeing/feeling heading into a season historically, but it is probably best to go for "down to earth/realistic", as opposed to "swaggering hyperbole" at this point (LOL).


VIP Member
I think 6-6 or 7-5 sounds about right, surprised that the UT game is over 50%. The most exciting thing for the Gators next season is to see whether or not Trask and A-Rich win starting jobs for their teams. I hope I'm wrong though I'm sure we would see them win their starting jobs.


Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
The Gators only dropped by 1.1 FPI, but a few other teams saw large movement in FPI that brought the expected win total from 6.8 to 5.6.


Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I just don't know WHAT to make of these "underlying various statistical analyses" anymore--especially in the way they are being thrown about in the service of the kind of massive reshuffling that the reality of "The Morning After" inevitably brings to the table in ANY event!