Week 6 SEC Power Rankings

[Escambia94]

This week Bama climbs up from #7 to #6, UK climbs from #8 to #7, and Florida drops from #8 to #6.

Florida's defense dropped from #6 to #13. Most of the other metrics are within a couple points from last week.

 

[DRU2012]

Under normal circumstances I APPRECIATE your detailed and erudite forays into the world of "ranking by metrics": It is surely one way of examining a season's trends unemotionally.
However, this season's painful contrast between statistical analysis and "the evidence of our own EYES", at least when it comes to what we've so far witnessed on a game-to-game basis with regard to our Gators and its various matchups thus far, has all been if anything marked by those rankings' IRRELEVANCE...
Except for the better part of the first half against Tennessee, we have generally floundered unevenly: Every PART of our game has been marked by a lack of discipline, consistency and attention to fundamentals. Worse still, the same mistakes are being repeated from one game to the next.
The compiled "averages" of all that do NOT tell us near as much as what our own EYES have seen of all the extremes that truly comprise the actual data those figures are based on.
In other words, the resulting rankings do not really tell us much about our actual "strengths in relation to everyone else". I know you have up til now been more accurate than most in predicting the actual scoring outcomes, E--, but I think you will find it more and more difficult doing so were you to base them on things like "Power Rankings" and/or "FPI". Not your fault--just a feature I believe of "the analog, rather than the digital, nature of reality". The two can dovetail early in a sampling, but as the "incalculable variables" begin to pile up, personal insight can become more and more at odds with it.
Now, having SAID all that, let me conclude by saying, "Sorry--Never mind all that...I'm just DOWN"...from getting repeatedly pummeled by all those "extremes" this "analog reality" has dealt us lately. Find whatever comfort you can in any aspect that offers even the illusion of "solid ground". As far as I can tell, even if our Coach's plan is given the required time and is indeed eventually successful, there is a whole lot MORE pain, disappointment and frustration in store between here and there...and for ME it's already wearing thin!

 

[Escambia94]

Under normal circumstances I APPRECIATE your detailed and erudite forays into the world of "ranking by metrics": It is surely one way of examining a season's trends unemotionally.
However, this season's painful contrast between statistical analysis and "the evidence of our own EYES", at least when it comes to what we've so far witnessed on a game-to-game basis with regard to our Gators and its various matchups thus far, has all been if anything marked by those rankings' IRRELEVANCE...
Except for the better part of the first half against Tennessee, we have generally floundered unevenly: Every PART of our game has been marked by a lack of discipline, consistency and attention to fundamentals. Worse still, the same mistakes are being repeated from one game to the next.
The compiled "averages" of all that do NOT tell us near as much as what our own EYES have seen of all the extremes that truly comprise the actual data those figures are based on.
In other words, the resulting rankings do not really tell us much about our actual "strengths in relation to everyone else". I know you have up til now been more accurate than most in predicting the actual scoring outcomes, E--, but I think you will find it more and more difficult doing so were you to base them on things like "Power Rankings" and/or "FPI". Not your fault--just a feature I believe of "the analog, rather than the digital, nature of reality". The two can dovetail early in a sampling, but as the "incalculable variables" begin to pile up, personal insight can become more and more at odds with it.
Now, having SAID all that, let me conclude by saying, "Sorry--Never mind all that...I'm just DOWN"...from getting repeatedly pummeled by all those "extremes" this "analog reality" has dealt us lately. Find whatever comfort you can in any aspect that offers even the illusion of "solid ground". As far as I can tell, even if our Coach's plan is given the required time and is indeed eventually successful, there is a whole lot MORE pain, disappointment and frustration in store between here and there...and for ME it's already wearing thin!

To be fair, the statistics like power rankings and FPI are telling an accurate story--it is just not a story that we like to hear. This team is not very good. It has not been very good since 2009. The Gators were able to mask their inefficiencies from 2009 to 2022 because the state of Florida has plenty of high school recruits to feed youth into a program. The new transfer portal set in effect in 2022 has changed the game. The SEC is floundering in this new era because SEC programs are still recruiting like it is pre-2022. The Gators have exactly one senior over age 21 (Ricky Pearsall) as a starter--the rest are under age 21. That is 22 starters not old enough to drink legally and who are a year or two removed from high school. Our opponents have 80% of their starters as older, experienced transfers or longtime starters. So Florida has two concurrent problems, but one will go away as the old Mullen recruits age out of the program. Napier still needs to figure out how to balance his roster with underclassmen and transfers.

What do the power rankings and FPI say? They reveal details beyond what we see with our eyes. Any asshat can look at the Gators and see that they suck, but how specifically do they suck? Check the numerous posts.

 

[DRU2012]

To be fair, the statistics like power rankings and FPI are telling an accurate story--it is just not a story that we like to hear. This team is not very good. It has not been very good since 2009. The Gators were able to mask their inefficiencies from 2009 to 2022 because the state of Florida has plenty of high school recruits to feed youth into a program. The new transfer portal set in effect in 2022 has changed the game. The SEC is floundering in this new era because SEC programs are still recruiting like it is pre-2022. The Gators have exactly one senior over age 21 (Ricky Pearsall) as a starter--the rest are under age 21. That is 22 starters not old enough to drink legally and who are a year or two removed from high school. Our opponents have 80% of their starters as older, experienced transfers or longtime starters. So Florida has two concurrent problems, but one will go away as the old Mullen recruits age out of the program. Napier still needs to figure out how to balance his roster with underclassmen and transfers.

What do the power rankings and FPI say? They reveal details beyond what we see with our eyes. Any asshat can look at the Gators and see that they suck, but how specifically do they suck? Check the numerous posts.

I'll add another feature that currently affects our seeming endemic inferiority, one that the rest may well have to adapt to themselves:
Just as WE will have to do a better job of finding and adding more "experienced and mature players" from the transfer portal in the short term, those more relying on it so far will in the long term likewise have to get back to recruiting more young prep talent (that presumably suits their systems) as they once did--and fitting them to their specific needs. As time goes on, ALL programs will have to find ways to reach a balance among the new realities.
(Oh--and THIS "asshat" is well aware how badly we suck--he's merely tired of being inundated with so MUCH evidence of "how specifically"...Sorry: You are right, and I concede the value of noting and analyzing the inescapable history of our decline...There's even a certain comfort in understanding how and why, but for the moment I find myself among those who need concrete "reason for HOPE". That can only be found in widespread improvement--and above all of course in VICTORY (at this point no matter how uneven). A couple of even "ugly wins" about now might go a long way in helping us all be a little more "philosophical".)
PS--
Paul Finebaum (not at all surprisingly, I suppose) is flogging the "Napier About To Be Fired!" story still for all it is worth...
I still generally avoid his show nowadays, but it comes up daily on my YouTube screen and I see its blaring headlines as I flip by--so I cannot help but be somewhat aware of it. I do not click on it, so I am left instead with the continued impression/assumption that is so well argued by you and many others, E--: That for a number of quite solid practical reasons, this simply will not happen anytime THIS year--and probably not even before 2025 "unless he is charged with a crime"...Now, I'm NO LONGER so sure that the limit is either that distant nor so extremely defined, but I DO agree that his "seat" is safe for now. However, this highlights the very "surrounding emotional environment" that continues to contribute to my own general "fan-fatigue"!
PPS--
For MORE OF THE SAME "same old same old" as referred to above, have y'all seen the latest from "Hail Florida Hail" ("Four Red Flags for Florida")?
DEVASTATING.
Nothing really all that new there--just "All of it, all in one PLACE"! Neatly summarizes and encapsulates all the things that are eating at ALL OF OUR MINDS.
Do yourself a favor though:
Do NOT read it before going to bed. Relaxing and getting to sleep is hard enough for Gators these days.

 

[Escambia94]

I'll add another feature that currently affects our seeming endemic inferiority, one that the rest may well have to adapt to themselves:
Just as WE will have to do a better job of finding and adding more "experienced and mature players" from the transfer portal in the short term, those more relying on it so far will in the long term likewise have to get back to recruiting more young prep talent (that presumably suits their systems) as they once did--and fitting them to their specific needs. As time goes on, ALL programs will have to find ways to reach a balance among the new realities.
(Oh--and THIS "asshat" is well aware how badly we suck--he's merely tired of being inundated with so MUCH evidence of "how specifically"...Sorry: You are right, and I concede the value of noting and analyzing the inescapable history of our decline...There's even a certain comfort in understanding how and why, but for the moment I find myself among those who need concrete "reason for HOPE". That can only be found in widespread improvement--and above all of course in VICTORY (at this point no matter how uneven). A couple of even "ugly wins" about now might go a long way in helping us all be a little more "philosophical".)
PS--
Paul Finebaum (not at all surprisingly, I suppose) is flogging the "Napier About To Be Fired!" story still for all it is worth...
I still generally avoid his show nowadays, but it comes up daily on my YouTube screen and I see its blaring headlines as I flip by--so I cannot help but be somewhat aware of it. I do not click on it, so I am left instead with the continued impression/assumption that is so well argued by you and many others, E--: That for a number of quite solid practical reasons, this simply will not happen anytime THIS year--and probably not even before 2025 "unless he is charged with a crime"...Now, I'm NO LONGER so sure that the limit is either that distant nor so extremely defined, but I DO agree that his "seat" is safe for now. However, this highlights the very "surrounding emotional environment" that continues to contribute to my own general "fan-fatigue"!
PPS--
For MORE OF THE SAME "same old same old" as referred to above, have y'all seen the latest from "Hail Florida Hail" ("Four Red Flags for Florida")?
DEVASTATING.
Nothing really all that new there--just "All of it, all in one PLACE"! Neatly summarizes and encapsulates all the things that are eating at ALL OF OUR MINDS.
Do yourself a favor though:
Do NOT read it before going to bed. Relaxing and getting to sleep is hard enough for Gators these days.

Note that the “asshat” comment was directed at every other website that makes money or draws clicks by complaining about Gator football without providing numbers. “Hail Florida Hail”, “Gator Sports”, and others are fluff pieces.

 

[DRU2012]

Note that the “asshat” comment was directed at every other website that makes money or draws clicks by complaining about Gator football without providing numbers. “Hail Florida Hail”, “Gator Sports”, and others are fluff pieces.

Oh, I definitely agree--and by the way, I understood the context of the "asshat" comment and didn't take it personally...It was more like admitting my own culpability in beginning to "lose perspective".
Too many of us (myself included) are allowing the inevitably extreme ups and downs of a VERY young team, one newly assembled by what is ITSELF a large new staff, GET to them. This whole team, staff and PROGRAM is still getting its feet under themselves, while facing a glaringly tough schedule in the middle of the reformation of a CFB landscape marked by new rules and guidelines.
However, having said all that, there is still no escaping that dumb mistakes are being made REPEATEDLY, while a certain clumsy self-righteousness and inflexibility seems to have already become an endemic part of the whole way this program responds to its own errors thus far. I don't know about all those OTHER folks ("asshats" or NOT), but THAT'S what is driving ME nuts at this point:
WE ARE BEATING OURSELVES!
Now, let's go out and play one full, clean game and whip Vandy at HOMECOMING...Then we'll see about going on the road a THIRD time.
For the moment I refuse to look down the road any further than that.

 

[Escambia94]

Here is a Gator PhD analysis of adjusted stats against opponents. The summary is that Florida is below average amongst 130 teams.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1709196361147502603

 

[DRU2012]

Going back to recruiting and our future, Ali Peak and others are highlighting the way our committed recruits are TEARING UP their senior seasons at the prep level.
I have been following some of their filmed highlights myself online, and it IS exciting to envision how this kind of talent could change our fortunes all over the field--especially on offense, where some of the nation's top PLAYMAKERS should soon be arriving at QB, RB and WR.
However, all this comes with a couple of caveats:
(1) This class is still light at OL, where we clearly already have depth (and other) issues, and
(2) Even WITH potential young difference-makers for the future passing game, will our Coach adapt HIS gameplanning accordingly?
We assume so--but we are getting WAY ahead of ourselves in ANY case. We still must do everything possible to KEEP, even ADD to this recruiting class, after ALL.
Unfortunately, this is where high-profile media-personalities can potentially harm us with their sensationalist, sh*t-disturbing headlines. We just must trust and hope that the quality of our prospective recruits, and our coaches' relationships with them, are of a quality and open honesty that transcends "rumor and innuendo".
I guess it all comes back to my growing concern with our Coach's seeming stubborn lack of flexibility--and his own latest postgame comments only further deepen that impression.
He does so many things WELL--it's a damn shame if he ends up letting it all get away from him due to this one large blind spot.