Week 5 Rankings

[Escambia94]

The Gators check in at #22 in week 5, #6 in the SEC, tied for 1st in the SEC East.

RK	Sagarin	TEAM	REC
1	3	UGA(55)	4-0
2	7	MICH(1)	4-0
3	6	TEX(2)	4-0
4	2	OSU(1)	4-0
5	15	FSU(3)	4-0
6	5	PSU	4-0
7	9	WASH(1)	4-0
8	10	USC	4-0
9	8	ORE	4-0
10	18	UTAH	4-0
11	11	ND	4-1
12	1	ALA	3-1
13	17	LSU	3-1
14	4	OU	4-0
15	11	UNC	4-0
16	26	WSU	4-0
17	32	DUKE	4-0
18	23	MIA	4-0
19	24	ORST	3-1
20	13	MISS	3-1
21	16	TENN	3-1
22	38	FLA	3-1
23	49	MIZ	4-0
24	39	KU	4-0
25	52	FRES	4-0

 

[DRU2012]

I am glad that we are at the very least part of the "national discussion" once more--but I really can't get too jazzed about these supposed "rankings". Not yet, anyway.
More than ever, it seems to ME, we must simply wait and SEE--depend on RESULTS and our actual PLAY in the next couple/few weeks:
If we win these NEXT two, depending on the details I will nonetheless (like MOST Gator fans) probably be overheated in my excitement heading into the LARGER TESTS beyond...so I'm not even anticipating (let alone contemplating the finer points of) anything beyond Vanderbilt yet.
We are NOT a "Championship"-caliber program yet. We MAY be on the threshold of truly beginning to challenge for a place among those who ARE. In MY view, THAT is what's at stake, what we are fighting for now.

 

[Escambia94]

We are definitely not a championship caliber team according to Sagarin ratings. The AP and coach’s polls have Florida as a top 25 team but Sagarin has Florida at 38.

Digging into the metrics behind the scenes I know what is missing: explosive plays and turnovers. The defense is steady but allows 1-3 explosive plays per game (which is among the best in America) and taking the ball away 0-1 times per game. On the other hand the offense is also steady but generates 0-1 explosive plays per game while giving the ball away 1-2 times per game. This means over all the Gators are at -1.5 explosive plays per game and +1.5 in turnovers. Sports fans generally refer to these as bad luck plays but they play a big role in college sports where “luck” is more of a role than in pro sports.

 

[DRU2012]

We are definitely not a championship caliber team according to Sagarin ratings. The AP and coach’s polls have Florida as a top 25 team but Sagarin has Florida at 38.

Digging into the metrics behind the scenes I know what is missing: explosive plays and turnovers. The defense is steady but allows 1-3 explosive plays per game (which is among the best in America) and taking the ball away 0-1 times per game. On the other hand the offense is also steady but generates 0-1 explosive plays per game while giving the ball away 1-2 times per game. This means over all the Gators are at -1.5 explosive plays per game and +1.5 in turnovers. Sports fans generally refer to these as bad luck plays but they play a big role in college sports where “luck” is more of a role than in pro sports.

This is why the Sagarin is likely the strongest and least "emotionally biased" of these numerical ratings--it consistently jibes with what "common sense" and "what we can see with our own TWO EYES" are telling us!
In this case, when it comes right down to a few simple numbers THERE IT IS:
Offense AND Defense are pretty good, coming along nicely now--but on offense "NOT ENOUGH BIG PLAYS" and on defense "NOT ENOUGH TURNOVERS":
In the college game, that amounts to the difference between championships and mediocrity (or at the very least, in the SEC between winning half your games and winning MOST of them!).