Week 4--or "Here Comes Reality..."

[DRU2012]

OK, it's the traditional opponent come the 3rd week in September.
I am finished with both heartfelt pleas and thoughtful analysis. It's time we faced whatever we are, full on.
Here is the most optimistic I can manage:
IF we are healthy, can field our best on both sides of the ball,
IF these young men can finally shed the arrogant sense of entitlement, absorb the lessons of humility, inexperience and the simple fact that there are lots of TEAMS in our conference that are better and further along in developing it than they are,
IF they are thus now ready to listen, learn from and follow their Coach, well, MAYBE we can keep it close enough to make things interesting in the 4th qrtr--in this and maybe even future, tougher games against even stronger rivals.
Of course, even playing as a TEAM, it'll also take at least some high-flying offense--not to mention a kicker who hits them long or short. Losing a game late we unexpectedly turn out to have had every chance of winning, if/when our kicker chunks a chip shot, won't exactly help the short-, mid- OR long-range health of the Gator-psyche--players' or fans'.
So. Here we go. Who, what and/or where, well, it don't look so dazzling so far--but here's where we begin to find out, for real.

 

[Escambia94]

I was not as worried about Kentucky, just based on pure talent. I was only worried about Florida in the Kentucky game, because I was expecting things to be different with this team under Coach Mac. In the past decade, Kentucky has never recruited better than Florida. Tennessee, on the other hand, has out-recruited Florida several times in the past decade (2015, 2014, and in 2011 it was close). Tennessee's offense is just a bit better in terms of statistics and the eye test, but their defense is horrible. Florida's defense needs to bend, but not break against the Tennessee offense, and the Florida offense needs to grow against one of the conference's weaker defenses.

NET TOTAL YARDS LEADERS
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
1 Ole Miss 1702 567 1057 352.3 645 215.0 192 64.0
2 Alabama 1537 512 864 288.0 673 224.3 109 36.3
3 Mississippi State 1467 489 944 314.7 523 174.3 115 38.3
4 Texas A&M 1463 488 782 260.7 681 227.0 138 46.0
5 Georgia 1433 478 663 221.0 770 256.7 134 44.7
6 Arkansas 1429 476 916 305.3 513 171.0 84 28.0
7 Vanderbilt 1326 442 906 302.0 420 140.0 73 24.3
8 Tennessee 1305 435 567 189.0 738 246.0 138 46.0
9 Florida 1224 408 714 238.0 510 170.0 106 35.3
10 Kentucky 1075 358 575 191.7 500 166.7 75 25.0
11 South Carolina 1069 356 446 148.7 623 207.7 61 20.3
12 Auburn 988 329 473 157.7 515 171.7 79 26.3
13 Missouri 969 323 652 217.3 317 105.7 70 23.3
14 LSU 822 411 145 72.5 677 338.5 66 33.0


TACKLES SACKS INTERCEPTIONS FUMBLES
RK TEAM SOLO AST TOTAL SACK YDSL PD INT YDS LONG TD REC
1 Texas A&M 110 127 237 15.0 80 14 2 40 40 1 2
2 Florida 106 73 179 11.0 86 14 4 146 53 1 2
3 LSU 63 94 157 8.0 63 11 1 0 0 0 1
Mississippi State 113 148 261 8.0 57 10 2 27 24 0 0
5 Georgia 103 124 227 7.0 49 5 5 147 88 1 0
Missouri 127 72 199 7.0 35 10 4 94 50 0 2
7 Auburn 97 156 253 6.0 42 9 2 35 35 0 1
Kentucky 120 100 220 6.0 30 10 4 3 3 0 2
Vanderbilt 79 122 201 6.0 34 11 0 0 0 0 1
10 Alabama 113 80 193 5.0 36 17 2 41 41 0 3
South Carolina 102 75 177 5.0 22 3 4 16 14 0 1
Tennessee 130 76 206 5.0 30 16 3 62 57 0 3
13 Ole Miss 124 140 264 3.0 26 10 7 255 93 3 3
14 Arkansas 85 118 203 1.0 6 5 3 12 12 0 2

 

[DRU2012]

I was not as worried about Kentucky, just based on pure talent. I was only worried about Florida in the Kentucky game, because I was expecting things to be different with this team under Coach Mac. In the past decade, Kentucky has never recruited better than Florida. Tennessee, on the other hand, has out-recruited Florida several times in the past decade (2015, 2014, and in 2011 it was close). Tennessee's offense is just a bit better in terms of statistics and the eye test, but their defense is horrible. Florida's defense needs to bend, but not break against the Tennessee offense, and the Florida offense needs to grow against one of the conference's weaker defenses.

NET TOTAL YARDS LEADERS
RK TEAM YDS YDS/G PASS P YDS/G RUSH R YDS/G PTS PTS/G
1 Ole Miss 1702 567 1057 352.3 645 215.0 192 64.0
2 Alabama 1537 512 864 288.0 673 224.3 109 36.3
3 Mississippi State 1467 489 944 314.7 523 174.3 115 38.3
4 Texas A&M 1463 488 782 260.7 681 227.0 138 46.0
5 Georgia 1433 478 663 221.0 770 256.7 134 44.7
6 Arkansas 1429 476 916 305.3 513 171.0 84 28.0
7 Vanderbilt 1326 442 906 302.0 420 140.0 73 24.3
8 Tennessee 1305 435 567 189.0 738 246.0 138 46.0
9 Florida 1224 408 714 238.0 510 170.0 106 35.3
10 Kentucky 1075 358 575 191.7 500 166.7 75 25.0
11 South Carolina 1069 356 446 148.7 623 207.7 61 20.3
12 Auburn 988 329 473 157.7 515 171.7 79 26.3
13 Missouri 969 323 652 217.3 317 105.7 70 23.3
14 LSU 822 411 145 72.5 677 338.5 66 33.0


TACKLES SACKS INTERCEPTIONS FUMBLES
RK TEAM SOLO AST TOTAL SACK YDSL PD INT YDS LONG TD REC
1 Texas A&M 110 127 237 15.0 80 14 2 40 40 1 2
2 Florida 106 73 179 11.0 86 14 4 146 53 1 2
3 LSU 63 94 157 8.0 63 11 1 0 0 0 1
Mississippi State 113 148 261 8.0 57 10 2 27 24 0 0
5 Georgia 103 124 227 7.0 49 5 5 147 88 1 0
Missouri 127 72 199 7.0 35 10 4 94 50 0 2
7 Auburn 97 156 253 6.0 42 9 2 35 35 0 1
Kentucky 120 100 220 6.0 30 10 4 3 3 0 2
Vanderbilt 79 122 201 6.0 34 11 0 0 0 0 1
10 Alabama 113 80 193 5.0 36 17 2 41 41 0 3
South Carolina 102 75 177 5.0 22 3 4 16 14 0 1
Tennessee 130 76 206 5.0 30 16 3 62 57 0 3
13 Ole Miss 124 140 264 3.0 26 10 7 255 93 3 3
14 Arkansas 85 118 203 1.0 6 5 3 12 12 0 2

Perhaps you can tell, but I can currently not even APPROACH this game, indeed ANY Gator game against an SEC opponent, in a logical, analytical way...especially an SEC team with similar or better talent and depth, especially ESPECIALLY an SEC team that has been a traditional rival. "Optimism", at least as far as weekly results THIS season, doesn't seem to be warranted thus far.
Not until one of these QBs starts throwing with accuracy. Not until a WR with an open field in front of him and a pass is (so far, in Grier's case at least) amazingly there on his hands, actually LOOKS THE BALL IN before turning upfield to run for daylight (our guys seem to begin planning their victory dance the moment they realize they're open and the ball might be coming their way--that's IF they're even LOOKING for it in the first place). Not until strong-footed, full-ride kickers start actually DOING THEIR JOB on the handful of crucial plays they are called upon to execute each week. Not until one of these "highly rated", "much sought after" RBs we were "lucky to get considering the growing traffic jam at that position", even BEGINS to assert himself and consistently impress anyone besides his mama. Not before these kids wake up to the fact that so far, individually they are nothing special--and may never BE, not without better talent and depth along the lines...
Not until they really get it: "Boys, you are ALL replaceable!".
Maybe not until most of 'em ARE "replaced"--or at the very least, we recruit monster talent along the O-line, and the rest of them begin to get Mac's major message...To wit:
"This is a TEAM. Think that way, play that way, and if you got the goods, you'll get your chances to step up and shine--but even THAT'S for, with and about this team. (And btw, as things stand right now, aside from Vernon, we're lookin' to upgrade at EVRRY position!)".
Now, it's NOT like we have NO chance in this one. IF the D continues to play and grow as it has so far, and IF this offense could actually execute just enough to bring off a version of "the Game Plan" reasonably close to what Mac and co. have in mind, well, if special teams just get a fair a to a middling version of what's expected of them out there on-the-field, hey, who knows?
And I hate myself for going even THAT far down the "hope road".

 

[Leakfan12]

I'm really hoping the Gators pull this one off, Tulsa got more points off Oklahoma at Oklahoma. Compare to UT at home.