Here we are entering Week 7 of the 2012 season. The first BCS poll comes out next week, and the Sagarin rankings are becoming "well connected". Those of us who are math and statistics nerds have been patiently awaiting this time, because there are finally enough data points for the statistics to be somewhat meaningful. My power ranking algorithm is based on NCAA official statistics, Jeff Sagarin's ELO Chess, and similar statistical models. Here are my SEC power rankings.
1. Alabama. #1 in the poll. #1 in total defense. #68 in total offense. #24- SOS. Dismantled B1G Michigan, destroyed then-top 5 Arkansas, and is efficient in all phases. The schedulers were too kind to Alabama (and Georgia), so they have their first SEC West test against an angry LSU team in November. The Tide can cruise through its SEC schedule until the LSU game.
2. South Carolina. #3 in the poll. #11 in total defense. #63 in total offense. #32+ SOS. Yay for the C0cks. They get an angry LSU team in their home, then travel into the Swamp. They control their SEC East destiny.
3. Florida. #4 in the poll. #12 in total defense. #88 in total offense. #10 SOS. No passing offense = reality check against SC in two weeks. I am trying not to sound like a negative Nancy here, but this will be Florida's highest power ranking if it does not get the passing game figured out against Vanderbilt in time for the South Carolina game.
4. LSU. #9 in the polls. #3 in total defense. #76 in total offense. #16+ SOS. I am just as surprised as you are. The outsider here foresees LSU settling in right about here in the polls and taking care of SC before having to get kicked in the teeth by Alabama. If anyone can beat Alabama, it is LSU. In terms of size and overall depth, nobody else comes close. Les Miles learns a lot from losses, so I expect him to turn the team around.
5. Georgia. #14 in the polls. #51 in total defense. #24 in total offense. #17 SOS. I love watching the Leghumpers lose to Steve Spurrier. They have all the athletes, size, speed, and balance, but crappy coaching and cocky QB.
6. Texas A&M. #22 in the polls. #45 total in total defense. #12 in total offense. #14+ SOS. Welcome to the SEC. Gets the edge over Miss. State due to SOS and keeping it close against #4 Florida and exploding on Arkansas. They still have LSU, Miss. State, and Alabama to test.
7. Mississippi State. #19 in the polls. #25 in total defense. #64 in total offense. #68+ SOS. I purposely kept Miss. State below aTm because they will get the meat of their schedule with Alabama, aTm, and LSU.
8. Tennessee. "#28 in my poll". #86 in total defense. #17 in total offense. #19 SOS. They are getting better, but need balance on offense.
9. Ole Miss. "#50 in my poll". #56 in total defense. #42 in total offense. #13 SOS. At least they kept it close against aTm. Please smash Auburn and Arkansas, just to shut those clowns up. Have fun wrapping up the season with back-to-back LSU and Miss St.
10. Arkansas. "#60 in my poll". #110 total defense. #60 in total offense. #7 SOS. Abandon ship!
11. Vanderbilt. "#64 in my poll". #33 in total defense. #90 in total offense. #12 SOS. Vandy has a shot at jumping over Arkansas. Just expose Florida's lack of a passing offense, and they are back in the "not the bottom of the bottom, but top of the bottom" class.
12. Missouri. "#65 in my poll". #26 in total defense. #95 in total offense. #20 SOS. Downright embarrassing. I guess Mizzou joined the SEC for baseball and basketball.
13. Auburn. "#61 in my poll". #75 in total defense. #113 in total offense. #18 SOS. Somebody has to be in the bottom of the pile, and it might as well be the cheaters from the single wide trailer park school. If Auburn does not blow the doors out of Ole Miss and Vandy, then expect Gene Chizik to get a yellow card. The red card will come if the losses to aTm, UGA, and Bama look extraordinarily ugly.
14. Kentucky. "#91 in my poll". #69 in total defense. #104 in total offense. #22 SOS. Mizzou says "save me a spot in the I'm-a-basketball/baseball-school seat".
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