SEC Power Rankings for Week 6

[Escambia94]

Here we are entering Week 7 of the 2012 season. The first BCS poll comes out next week, and the Sagarin rankings are becoming "well connected". Those of us who are math and statistics nerds have been patiently awaiting this time, because there are finally enough data points for the statistics to be somewhat meaningful. My power ranking algorithm is based on NCAA official statistics, Jeff Sagarin's ELO Chess, and similar statistical models. Here are my SEC power rankings.

1. Alabama. #1 in the poll. #1 in total defense. #68 in total offense. #24- SOS. Dismantled B1G Michigan, destroyed then-top 5 Arkansas, and is efficient in all phases. The schedulers were too kind to Alabama (and Georgia), so they have their first SEC West test against an angry LSU team in November. The Tide can cruise through its SEC schedule until the LSU game.
2. South Carolina. #3 in the poll. #11 in total defense. #63 in total offense. #32+ SOS. Yay for the C0cks. They get an angry LSU team in their home, then travel into the Swamp. They control their SEC East destiny.
3. Florida. #4 in the poll. #12 in total defense. #88 in total offense. #10 SOS. No passing offense = reality check against SC in two weeks. I am trying not to sound like a negative Nancy here, but this will be Florida's highest power ranking if it does not get the passing game figured out against Vanderbilt in time for the South Carolina game.
4. LSU. #9 in the polls. #3 in total defense. #76 in total offense. #16+ SOS. I am just as surprised as you are. The outsider here foresees LSU settling in right about here in the polls and taking care of SC before having to get kicked in the teeth by Alabama. If anyone can beat Alabama, it is LSU. In terms of size and overall depth, nobody else comes close. Les Miles learns a lot from losses, so I expect him to turn the team around.
5. Georgia. #14 in the polls. #51 in total defense. #24 in total offense. #17 SOS. I love watching the Leghumpers lose to Steve Spurrier. They have all the athletes, size, speed, and balance, but crappy coaching and cocky QB.
6. Texas A&M. #22 in the polls. #45 total in total defense. #12 in total offense. #14+ SOS. Welcome to the SEC. Gets the edge over Miss. State due to SOS and keeping it close against #4 Florida and exploding on Arkansas. They still have LSU, Miss. State, and Alabama to test.
7. Mississippi State. #19 in the polls. #25 in total defense. #64 in total offense. #68+ SOS. I purposely kept Miss. State below aTm because they will get the meat of their schedule with Alabama, aTm, and LSU.
8. Tennessee. "#28 in my poll". #86 in total defense. #17 in total offense. #19 SOS. They are getting better, but need balance on offense.
9. Ole Miss. "#50 in my poll". #56 in total defense. #42 in total offense. #13 SOS. At least they kept it close against aTm. Please smash Auburn and Arkansas, just to shut those clowns up. Have fun wrapping up the season with back-to-back LSU and Miss St.
10. Arkansas. "#60 in my poll". #110 total defense. #60 in total offense. #7 SOS. Abandon ship!
11. Vanderbilt. "#64 in my poll". #33 in total defense. #90 in total offense. #12 SOS. Vandy has a shot at jumping over Arkansas. Just expose Florida's lack of a passing offense, and they are back in the "not the bottom of the bottom, but top of the bottom" class.
12. Missouri. "#65 in my poll". #26 in total defense. #95 in total offense. #20 SOS. Downright embarrassing. I guess Mizzou joined the SEC for baseball and basketball.
13. Auburn. "#61 in my poll". #75 in total defense. #113 in total offense. #18 SOS. Somebody has to be in the bottom of the pile, and it might as well be the cheaters from the single wide trailer park school. If Auburn does not blow the doors out of Ole Miss and Vandy, then expect Gene Chizik to get a yellow card. The red card will come if the losses to aTm, UGA, and Bama look extraordinarily ugly.
14. Kentucky. "#91 in my poll". #69 in total defense. #104 in total offense. #22 SOS. Mizzou says "save me a spot in the I'm-a-basketball/baseball-school seat".

 

[DRU2012]

Know and appreciate your "Practical Applied Statistics-101" course, E-, and am glad you offer it as "refresher" each fall about this time, but what do we do with such information? Is it a reliable predictor of results in actual confrontations within the Conference? What about beyond, of actual relative ranking among the programs as the season plays out? Let's see how much is revealed, how far we can get right now, using our own Gators as our "test case".
I agree with your projections regarding what's missing in our game: I've become more and more concerned about the lack of a passing game, am certain that as the one obvious weakness will eventually bring us down: An elite defense (of which we still play at least 2--and these have scoring offense to go with it, too) has only to "load the box" and dare us to throw and, without playmaker-WRs to stretch-the-field and break their "press", it won't take TOO much of an offensive onslaught to expose and beat us. So far our real strength in most other areas, especially defense, has allowed us to get over or around or just plain stay ahead of this problem. Can it carry us all the way through?
Some would argue that our heart, determination, stamina and ability thus far to keep things close, eventually make the necessary adjustments to win it late, have been decisive. Certainly our assertion of dominance over the line of scrimmage could not have otherwise been accomplished--and there ARE statistics that help to build that case. Time-of-possession is one we have held a distinct edge in so far, likewise scoring dominance in the 2nd half, especially the 4th qrtr--but all it will take is for a high-flying offense, a missed tackle or slip on special teams in an otherwise close game and we're suddenly down a couple of scores late, with currently no sign of either the quick-strike capability or (by the same kind of open-field playmaker back on special teams) turn-the-tables punt-block or return-run that could get us back in it.
To a certain extent we can I think "find" a passing-game simply by bringing Reed and Burton more into the game plan, using the TEs and backs flaring to break a defense's over-playing our running-game--and we've already seen how this can result in the odd "big play" thanks to Patton's breakout YACs--but this is more just an extension of what we already do, another way to move the ball steadily down the field (those "odd big plays" not withstanding), in similar fashion to running it. It isn't the explosive, quickstrike-long threat that we'll no doubt need, sooner or later, in any of several ways.
We have seen other more-favored teams' weaknesses already exposed in the first month of the season, within and beyond our Conference, obviously, and certainly I didn't come into this believing we could get through ours without a blemish--in truth, I gave us an outside shot at getting through it with just 2 losses, more likely 3. However, we are a better team, have come further faster than I could have realistically foreseen, and like most Gators am by now filled with (probably over-inflated) hope that we can continue to learn and grow, have a couple of yet-unknowns or so-far-under-achievers step up and begin making some plays, and in this way confound the statistics AND the "experts" and, in filling those holes make this a special year after all.

 

[NaffGutts]

I think if we can't establish our WRs to step up and become what we need them to be, then we start throwing more to our tight ends, this will cause confusion, free up zones, and at last resort, open things up at the line to allow driskel to use his feet. I believe in our Gators and I think we will be the talk of the Nation after October is over. It's one thing to win a game here and there in ugly fashion, or from behind, but we've done it every game and every game we are looking better and better on defense and our guys are looking stronger each week. They are hitting hard and often, that is an offenses worst enemy. When you get popped once, you shrug it off, but when you get popped every time you touch the ball, it plays with your head, you start dropping passes or getting happy feet on run plays, not to mention what it does to your stamina, confidence, motivation, everything. Everyone is aware of our Offensive issues, and everyone is aware of how great our Defense is. Only one of these can change guys, our Defense is established and can only get better, our Offense is the only thing that can change. Could you imagine how our team would look if our Offense was clicking? Seriously? I would be thinking about a title match already.

Point is, we are "rebuilding" and we are winning games in the process. Teams are fearing a Gator team that moving the ball on Offense and stopping everything on Defense. There is only one way, with this years team, and that's up.

 

[Escambia94]

I use statistics to augment what it is I am seeing with my own eyes, or understand the things that I do not follow closely with my own eyes. Last year's statistical analysis told me that the 2011 Gators were bigger and more experienced on both sides of the line of scrimmage, yet were too soft to use that size and experience. My eyes validated what Coach Muschamp said--they were soft. The stats showed that the players were not living up to their potential. Coach Muschamp did something about it this past year--he hired new coaches to whip the kids into shape. The stats in 2012 show me that the players are meeting their potential with size and experience on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Unfortunately, the stats show me a glaring weakness on offense. I am not saying that I want Jeff Driskel to throw for 300 yards, but I am saying that I worry about Driskel's ability to connect with any dependable receiver for 200 yards if the run game gets shut down by SC, UGA, or FSU. As NaffGutts mentioned, the Gators need to find a place to open up the passing game, and it may as well be the tight ends Jordan Reed and Trey Burton. Heck, give Clay Burton a crack at some short passes.

 

[DRU2012]

Escambia94, NaffGutts
Though our relative rationales and "levels of hope" regarding the general level of success this team will ultimately achieve this season differ (or are at least expressed differently--consciously or not), it is interesting how our overall appraisals of the team's specific weaknesses so closely dovetail. That tells me we are on to something: Put at its simplest, we need to take whatever passing game that our OC is no doubt developing (you have only to study his past history and that of the teams he has coached to be certain that there IS one, even if we have hardly seen it on-the-field so far) and begin to use it--see it put through its paces in-game against a real SEC defense, for the sake of its ongoing development into something we can turn to if/when we really need it, AND simply in order to give future opponents more to consider and prepare for during the short week of preparation they'll have before facing us. Finally, there WILL come a time when circumstances force us into trading TDs with someone back and forth late, or we have to get down the field VERY quickly to score and pull out a win: when those times come, we do NOT want to have to suddenly "flip the switch" to turn on a style-of-play, expect our players to execute a sequence it hasn't long since run and been successful with previously in the normal course of play.
More Reed and Burton regardless, Hines from more different positions and from a lot of different sets, and finding at least ONE "somebody", if not Patton or Dunbar maybe Pittman (who, like Debose back when HE first appeared here in '09, showed so much promise as an early-enrolled freshman this past spring and summer, but who has--also like Debose ever since '09--just disappeared from view...Pittman's just a true-freshman though, I know, and may hust not be ready--I'm just grasping at straws here, so desperate are we for a break-out wide receiver), to step up as a "dazzling deep threat": These are the things we should expect to see our OC begin to add to the in-game offense, and soon--here and NOW, in this week's game, in my view. Obviously, these are clear "positions of need" come NSD, but we must make-do with whatever we have now, and the more "creative" we'll meanwhile have to be in filling these needs, the sooner we'll need to begin perfecting it ON-THE-FIELD.

 

[NaffGutts]

I agree, i'd imagine since we are all in agreement with our passing problems, you'd imagine our team and coaches are most likely all over the issue. Driskel is being a better manager, and not forcing throws or taking sacks, or avoiding them more. Hopefully Pease incorporates our tight ends more and opens up the playbook to more uncoventional thinking, like Burton, he can throw pretty good. I bet if you formed up in tge Wildcat with Burton under center, whatever Defense we are facing will think run, because thats our pattern from past gamea. Then we go play action and let them bite on tge run, and air it out to an open WR, or TE.
I seriously think Pease has more up his sleeve, he is a cerebral type coach. He is always thinking a step ahead and I think right now he is limiting the play calls until Driskel is more confident and more WR step up as a go to guy.

 

[DRU2012]

No use remaining in a "state of denial"...Guess it's time instead to "state the obvious": To a great extent, we now find ourselves facing the consequences of a double-helping of recruiting-ineptitude, and Pease has arrived having to deal with/maneuver around it. First there were Meyer & Co.'s across-the-board concentration on what turned out to be a preponderance of five-star clowns, talented prima donnas and highly-rated head cases his and their last couple of years here, overlapped with/followed by one of the few hold-overs once Muschamp arrived, then-Recruiting Coordinator Aubrey Hill's overseeing our outright missing on just about every top receiver we supposedly had "locked up" in the last 2 year's recruiting-classes (Pittman, a seemingly under-rated 3-star prospect, looked to be the one exception, an early-enrollee who showed great promise throughout the spring and summer but who, whether by dint of clearly not practicing well or judgment of the coaches that he is yet too raw and inexperienced to be game-ready, seemingly disappeared from view with the start of the actual season). I too believe Pease is WAY too smart and creative an offense-minded coach not to have recognized and begun developing a two-leveled (at LEAST), on-field/off-field, now-and-later strategy, one that had us concentrating on the power running game the Head Coach saw as our trademark from the start, developing and implementing it on-field while, having found himself with only some of the parts necessary for a comprehensive passing game, has been using the talent he DOES have sparingly on-field while bringing along they and the rest, developing a scheme and a strategy with which to eventually use them, OFF-field in those closed practices (and yes, I have been told for some time that there were "a bunch of stuff we hadn't seen in games yet" being worked on at least one day-per-week, MORE during the bye-week)--the idea being to phase them in as packages as the season wore on and a more varied and hopefully more explosive attack became available. That's my theory (somewhat optimistic, I'll grant you), based on hope, back-channel innuendo and the man's own past-history--and the certainty that he realizes as I (and apparently all of you) do that something LIKE it will become necessary, was always GOING to become ABSOLUTELY necessary as this season went along...and you don't wait until you first need it to see if it is ready to work in-game against tough opposition: The time to begin that process is right about NOW.

 

[NaffGutts]

I too believe Pease is WAY too smart and creative an offense-minded coach not to have recognized and begun developing a two-leveled (at LEAST), on-field/off-field, now-and-later strategy.........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................developing a scheme and a strategy with which to eventually use them, OFF-field in those closed practices (and yes, I have been told for some time that there were "a bunch of stuff we hadn't seen in games yet" being worked on at least one day-per-week, MORE during the bye-week)--the idea being to phase them in as packages as the season wore on and a more varied and hopefully more explosive attack became available. That's my theory (somewhat optimistic, I'll grant you), based on hope, back-channel innuendo and the man's own past-history--and the certainty that he realizes as I (and apparently all of you) do that something LIKE it will become necessary, was always GOING to become ABSOLUTELY necessary as this season went along...and you don't wait until you first need it to see if it is ready to work in-game against tough opposition: The time to begin that process is right about NOW.

Well said and I completely agree. Given Pease's experience with Boise State, he is a legit playmaker himself, and I think once he finalizes the quirks, we'll see our new look on passing. I too think Muschamps goal is to run it right at the defense and wear them down and let every team that might be watching us focus on stopping Gillislee while our passing game "looks" to not be a threat. Everyone knows the ability Driskel possesses, with his feet and arms. He went from "deer in the headlights", to "forcing throws", to "tebow it", to "throwing it away or managing control". I'm beyond confident that he'll start clicking with his WRs and TEs.

I think Pease isn't going to settle with a "generic" playbook, I think he is drawing up plays per team we are facing. Look at our past games, they all differ according to what we needed to do. LSU, we had to run it right at them play after play, we beat them PHYSICALLY, and now that's "an option" and to me, a play call in itself.

Next week we'll be talking about Gillislee of course, but also about Driskel's new look on passing and the WRs and TEs he's going to.

^ COUNT ON IT

 

[DRU2012]

Not surprisingly, there has been widespread agreement online that UF has failed to show much of a passing game in general--and beyond that, no long-strike capability at ALL. Though essentially true, what many have then failed to grasp is simply to what degree this has been intentional: Despite our perceived lack of depth, we clearly have enough talented pieces to run a varied and efficient short- to mid-range attack, at LEAST. That it's been employed only sparingly has been more a matter of thus far having achieved success without it. This should NOT be confused with our skilled and creative OC's not having planned and designed a varied passing offense with the actual personnel on hand in mind. In the same way, like you I am certain that Pease has continued to work with his WRs: Though we'll need and get at LEAST 2 or 3 more highly-rated prospects in our next recruiting class, we do have several promising candidates right now, and only ONE has to actually do his job, rise to the occasion and achieve success in a scheme timed and run just for him--and hopefully see it called and properly executed in tonight's game to full effect.