Gators will face multiple Heisman candidates in 2018

[Escambia94]

This year the Gators will face at least 9 players who have a chance at winning the Heisman. Granted, some of these Heisman odds are pretty low. I only give Jake Fromm a high probability of being a finalist, not that the other players are not very good. Fromm will have the statistics and the winning record to secure a top-5 appearance in Heisman voting. Lock might be the most dangerous QB on the schedule, having defeated Florida on multiple occasions.

Based on preseason predictions, some have UF facing WVU in a bowl game, maybe Liberty Bowl in Memphis or Texas Bowl in Houston. Imagine UF having faced the following top Heisman candidates in the regular season, then having to face a former Gator and Heisman frontrunner in the postseason!

• 9/29 - Nick Fitzgerald, Mississippi State. #10 rated SEC QB in 2017, our head coach's former student. Rating: 117.6. Projected to improve greatly under Joe Moorhead's pass-heavy RPO offense.
• 10/27 - Jake Fromm, Georgia. #7 rated SEC QB in 2017. Defeated UF last year. Rating: 168.2. Projected to improve over an already stellar 2017 campaign.
• 11/3 - Drew Lock, Missouri. #1 rated SEC QB in 2017. Rating: 169.4. Defeated Florida a couple times. Knows Florida pretty well.
• 11/10 - Jake Bentley, South Carolina. #4 rated SEC QB in 2017. Defeated UF last year. Rating: 130.2. OR Deebo Samuel. #1 in all purpose yards in the SEC in 2016 and 2017. Will Muschamp still knows some of these players, but much less so this year. Mullen holds a slight edge over Muschamp in head to head play from Muschamp's time as defensive coordinator at Auburn. MSU defeated Auburn 17-9 in 2015.
• 11/24 - James Blackman, FSU (assuming he beats out Deiondre Francois). #10 rated ACC QB. Defeated UF last year. Rating: 129.2. OR Deiondre Francois. #6 rated ACC QB in 2016. Defeated UF that year. Rating: 142.1. OR Cam Akers. Rushed for 1,025 yards and 7 touchdowns as a freshman.
• (hypothetical bowl game in December) - Will Grier, WVU. #4 B12 QB. Former Gator starter. Rating: 162.7. Grier's statistics were hampered by injuries late in the year. With a full season of being healthy he is a top contender for the Heisman.

 

[Leakfan12]

Francois is the guy for the Noles.

 

[DRU2012]

Still bugs me how we "lose" fine QBs who go on to excell elsewhere...Grier is the most extreme example since Cam Newton (and like Newton, the player himself brought on the situation that led to his exit, the Gator Coach-of-the-moment overestimated the talent-level of his alternatives--but regardless, he had to wonder at the reliability of the young man due to the mistakes he made that precipitated his leaving in the first place).
At least THIS time it begins to seem that we found answers, indeed had or quickly found talented replacements on hand, and are in the process of "recovering in a timely manner". In fact, though once again left wondering "What IF....?", overall the timing may be working out in our favor here as our new (and finally fitting) Head Coach settles in and moves us into a new system and era of success.

 

[Escambia94]

@DRU2012 The answer is simple: the Florida Gators have been good at recruiting talented quarterbacks, but have been bad at coaching them OR they have recruited good talent and have switched offensive schemes to be a bad fit for the recruits on hand.

Larry Fedora had a top-25 offense with Chris Leak, who was one of the top-3 QBs in the nation when he was recruited to Florida. He was a bad fit for Urban Meyer's and Dan Mullen's offense in 2005 and the offensive rank dropped from #22 to #61, but with a few tweaks and tailored coaching the offensive rank rose to #19.

Steve Addazio used the same playbook as Dan Mullen and he actually improved the offensive ranking slightly, albeit at a lower yards-per-play. Addazio simplified the Mullen offense (dive left, dive right, dive center) and ran more plays, but neither he nor Scot Loefler did anything to improve the QB coaching.

I have no idea why Charlie Weis could not coach the offense. He was pretty good at this in the NFL and he was good at it while he was a college offensive coordinator, but something failed to click with John Brantley and Jeff Driskel.

Brent Pease failed to make a difference with Jeff Driskel and Jacoby Brissett, and he basically drove Brissett off to find better coaching at NC State. Brissett seems to doing well in the NFL.

Kurt Roper made a slight improvement in the offense. Driskel was on the Maxwell Award, Davey O'Brien, and All-American watch lists until mid-season, but Roper could not help him enough to make him want to stay at UF after graduation. Driskel's numbers improved greatly at Louisiana Tech.

Doug Nussmeier took way too long to figure out that Will Grier was a special talent. Nobody in their right mind would look back and say that Treon Harris threatened him for the starting role. Harris left Florida to find better QB coaching, and then moved over to wide receiver.

Now look at the offensive coordinators and their total offensive rankings. Steve Spurrier is obviously the best OC Florida ever had, but his offensive rankings would fluctuate between #1 or #2 and #25. Once Dan Mullen adapted the offense to fit pro-style QBs, he averaged about a #16 ranking. The rest of the OCs after Mullen averaged about a #100 in total offense.

• Steve Spurrier
  • 2000. #24. 827 plays. 5024 yards. 6.07 YPP. 58 TDs. 419 YPG. 10-2.
  • 2001. #2. 788 plays. 5803 yards. 7.36 YPP. 61 TDs. 528 YPG. 9-2.
• Ed Zaunbrecher
  • 2002. #25. 982 plays. 5290 yards. 5.39 YPP. 45 TDs. 407 YPG. 8-5.
  • 2003. #46. 860 plays. 5088 yards. 5.92 YPP. 47 TDs. 391 YPG. 8-5.
• Larry Fedora
  • 2004. #22. 822 plays. 5123 yards. 6.23 YPP. 49 TDs. 427 YPG. 7-5.
• Dan Mullen
  • 2005. #61. 840 plays. 4481 yards. 5.33 YPP. 43 TDs. 373 YPG. 9-3.
  • 2006. #19. 875 plays. 5545 yards. 6.34 YPP. 57 TDs. 396 YPG. 13-1.
  • 2007. #14. 848 plays. 5943 yards. 7.01 YPP. 75 TDs. 457 YPG. 9-4.
  • 2008. #15. 874 plays. 6231 yards. 7.13 YPP. 82 TDs. 445 YPG. 13-1.
• Steve Addazio (Scot Loefler)
  • 2009. #6. 919 plays. 6410 yards. 6.97 YPP. 63 TDs. 458 YPG. 13-1.
  • 2010. #82. 885 plays. 4561 yards. 5.15 YPP. 52 TDs. 351 YPG. 8-5.
• Charlie Weis
  • 2011. #105. 789 plays. 4273 yards. 5.42 YPP. 37 TDs. 329 YPG. 7-6.
• Brent Pease
  • 2012. #103. 827 plays. 4347 yards. 5.26 YPP. 39 TDs. 334 YPG. 11-2.
  • 2013. #113. 793 plays. 3800 yards. 4.79 YPP. 25 TDs. 317 YPG. 4-8.
• Kurt Roper
  • 2014. #93. 841 plays. 4411 yards. 5.24 YPP. 40 TDs. 368 YPG. 7-5.
• Doug Nussmeier
  • 2015. #111. 915 plays. 4676 yards. 5.11 YPP. 39 TDs. 334 YPG. 10-4.
  • 2016. #116. 862 plays. 4472 yards. 5.19 YPP. 29 TDs. 344 YPG. 9-4.
  • 2017. #109. 712 plays. 3695 yards. 5.19 YPP. 25 TDs. 336 YPG. 4-7.

 

[DRU2012]

@Escambia94,
Excellent, comprehensive reading of the DETAILS during the period in question. Turns on the spotlight and sharpens its focus to explain what really HAPPENED during those frustrating, at times bewildering years...But it still "bugs me": So much time, teams and talent expended on ultimately disappointing--and frustrating!--results.
Here's hoping we are correct in our growing, collective impression that THIS Head Coach, as his previous stint here as OC foreshadowed, WAS the guy to bring in after that sad trajectory you delineate above. It has been clear to all of us for so long that "all we're missing is radically better coaching on the offense side!"
(Well, sure: A bit more to it all than that, when it comes to actually winning Championships again. It seems clear that ALL those "prev Coaches" carried baggage that held themselves and hence US back...AND Mullens DOES appear to be an "upgrade" in that myriad of "death in the DETAILS" areas that were formerly killing us all those years)

 

[Leakfan12]

So much for Blackman competing for the Heisman (at least for this year) since Francois won the job though they sucked against VT. Hope that happens when the Gators come to Tally Hally.

 

[Escambia94]

So much for Blackman competing for the Heisman (at least for this year) since Francois won the job though they sucked against VT. Hope that happens when the Gators come to Tally Hally.

I made the silly mistake of assuming Francois would be suspended for "aggressively restraining his pregnant girlfriend", according to Tallahassee "police" reports, and then getting busted for possession of marijuana (possibly with intent to sell, but probably not due to the small amount, 17 grams) just a couple months later.

Francois it is. Blackmon needs to beat up a couple girls before he can be named the starting FSU QB.

 

[Escambia94]

@Escambia94,
Excellent, comprehensive reading of the DETAILS during the period in question. Turns on the spotlight and sharpens its focus to explain what really HAPPENED during those frustrating, at times bewildering years...But it still "bugs me": So much time, teams and talent expended on ultimately disappointing--and frustrating!--results.
Here's hoping we are correct in our growing, collective impression that THIS Head Coach, as his previous stint here as OC foreshadowed, WAS the guy to bring in after that sad trajectory you delineate above. It has been clear to all of us for so long that "all we're missing is radically better coaching on the offense side!"
(Well, sure: A bit more to it all than that, when it comes to actually winning Championships again. It seems clear that ALL those "prev Coaches" carried baggage that held themselves and hence US back...AND Mullens DOES appear to be an "upgrade" in that myriad of "death in the DETAILS" areas that were formerly killing us all those years)

The one thing that will still prevent Florida from contending with the big boys is depth. 30 players made their debut last week--that is the equivalent of two recruiting classes! This tells us that some of the veterans just are not hacking it, but they need to stay for depth as the season goes on.

 

[DRU2012]

I made the silly mistake of assuming Francois would be suspended for "aggressively restraining his pregnant girlfriend", according to Tallahassee "police" reports, and then getting busted for possession of marijuana (possibly with intent to sell, but probably not due to the small amount, 17 grams) just a couple months later.

Francois it is. Blackmon needs to beat up a couple girls before he can be named the starting FSU QB.

Good one. Sad, but still funny too--I mean, at this point, after everything else along these lines we've seen outta Tallahassee over the years, nothing new. All we can DO is laugh. Again. But it does raise tje inevitable question: How much of this kind of "same ol' same ol' " darkness will cast its shadow over the Criminole program, emerge from their locker room in the aftermath of Jimbo's exit? And how much of the same will he bring to College Station?

 

[DRU2012]

The one thing that will still prevent Florida from contending with the big boys is depth. 30 players made their debut last week--that is the equivalent of two recruiting classes! This tells us that some of the veterans just are not hacking it, but they need to stay for depth as the season goes on.

And that will likely begin to tell, with inevitable attrition (which has been an especially brutal fact for us last few years--Hell, "Strength & Conditioning" became a major issue, a seeming weakness where once a STRENGTH in our Championship years) may well be the "wall" we hit later in the year even WITH early success.

(Man, I am watching this old "SWC matchup", a 2 hour lightning-delayed "Battle for the Iron Skillet" Texas-tilt, TCU at SMU up the road from here in Dallas, and more than ever I pray WE don't encounter any weather delays tomorrow night: As we are seeing here, that's the kind of "flow-changer" that can affect different teams different ways--and in turn unexpectedly change the outcome in unforseen ways. As the more-talented favorite at home, in The Swamp at night, we don't NEED it--it can only help the underdog on the road, in our game... Anyway, it concerns me; how does the weather sitch look in that regard for tomorrow night in G-vile???)