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A Bad Feeling... (Rumor Thread)

DRU2012

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Staff member
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I can't ignore it any longer...this feeling of impending doom. I want it to be some emotional exaggeration, borne of disappointment and frustration--the usual thing after a bad loss.
But instead of fading, it is there, growing stronger each day. By now it is almost overpowering, like "waiting for the other shoe to drop":
I am now more than half EXPECTING to wake up to the news that this Coach has been fired.
Maybe there will necessarily be OTHER "more bad news" first between now and then--but for various reasons there is now a powerful oncoming "undercurrent" growing around us.
I know all the logical arguments as to how and why it shouldn't work that way, the situational details that argue how so many other things would need to happen first--but somehow it just feels like "things are DIFFERENT this time"...
It's a powerful FEELING.
I won't bother arguing how or why it will or won't happen--I don't WANT it to happen, but what I think or feel has nothing to do with this:
The inescapable impression that too much of a certain chain-of-events has already been set in motion to dampen this growing wave of negativity.
In fact, though I would normally not do this, I am going to recommend an article by Pat Forde just published in this week's Sports Illustrated, one entitled "Struggling College Powerhouses Are Running Out of Time to Salvage Season".
It names and focuses on several once-dominant programs, but begins with a simple and frankly devastating overview of the University of Florida, one that unblinkingly nails where we are and how we got here.
Read it. It is unbiased and relatively unemotional--an important "step back" perspective to go with the pronouncements of our more "Gator-CENTRIC" commentators, however welcome and "fair" we find their contributions.
I'm going to stop here. I actually had more written but decided to instead cut it off and let you all read, consider and hopefully HELP ME to make sense of it all. I am quite fallible, after all; As I say, I sure WANT to be wrong about a FEW things here...But at the root of all this there IS "the evidence of our own EYES!"
Is there a more "HOPEFUL" way of assessing it?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I know we are Gator fans and are known for overreacting, but keep these facts in mind:
  1. Back in 2021, Scott Stricklin discussed the problem with rolling through head coaches every four years. Billy Napier is not getting fired before December 2025 unless he commits a crime.
  2. Also in December 2021, Napier signed a 7-year contract worth $51M. His termination cost is 85% of the remainder of the contract. At what point does it become affordable to fire Napier?
    • December 2023 = $37M
    • December 2024 = $31M
    • December 2025 = $25M
    • December 2026 = $19M
    • December 2027 = $12M = Dan Mullen's buyout paid December 2022 to July 2027
    • December 2028 = $6M ~ Jim McElwain's buyout paid December 2017 to July 2021; ~ Will Muschamp's buyout paid December 2014 to July 2019.
  3. None of the sources we are watching are insiders because there are no insiders to the program--at least none who run a website or social media platform. We are wasting our time getting spun up by social media because Billy Napier runs a tight ship and there is no information leaking. Go ahead and read into special teams coach Chris Couch deleting his social media accounts. That does not matter. Napier is not going to disrespect his staff member, so if Couch is fired we are going to get a believable cover story--just as we did with Patrick Toney and Keary Colbert.
  4. Billy Napier warned us ahead of time that we will get frustrated with him. His boss, Scott Stricklin, is happy with Napier's slow, methodical plan. His boss, Ben Sasse, has not indicated that he has issues with Stricklin's and Napier's plans.

I will go on record and say that there is no way Billy Napier gets fired in 2023. The team can finish 3-9 and he will still be coaching the Gators against the Miami Hurricanes on August 31 in the Swamp.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
I know we are Gator fans and are known for overreacting, but keep these facts in mind:
  1. Back in 2021, Scott Stricklin discussed the problem with rolling through head coaches every four years. Billy Napier is not getting fired before December 2025 unless he commits a crime.
  2. Also in December 2021, Napier signed a 7-year contract worth $51M. His termination cost is 85% of the remainder of the contract. At what point does it become affordable to fire Napier?
    • December 2023 = $37M
    • December 2024 = $31M
    • December 2025 = $25M
    • December 2026 = $19M
    • December 2027 = $12M = Dan Mullen's buyout paid December 2022 to July 2027
    • December 2028 = $6M ~ Jim McElwain's buyout paid December 2017 to July 2021; ~ Will Muschamp's buyout paid December 2014 to July 2019.
  3. None of the sources we are watching are insiders because there are no insiders to the program--at least none who run a website or social media platform. We are wasting our time getting spun up by social media because Billy Napier runs a tight ship and there is no information leaking. Go ahead and read into special teams coach Chris Couch deleting his social media accounts. That does not matter. Napier is not going to disrespect his staff member, so if Couch is fired we are going to get a believable cover story--just as we did with Patrick Toney and Keary Colbert.
  4. Billy Napier warned us ahead of time that we will get frustrated with him. His boss, Scott Stricklin, is happy with Napier's slow, methodical plan. His boss, Ben Sasse, has not indicated that he has issues with Stricklin's and Napier's plans.

I will go on record and say that there is no way Billy Napier gets fired in 2023. The team can finish 3-9 and he will still be coaching the Gators against the Miami Hurricanes on August 31 in the Swamp.
OK. Hope you are right...but a (somewhat private) side question (or TWO) arises here:
How do YOU assess the repeated patterns of mistakes, misplays, poor blocking, poor tackling, poor special teams, antiquated and unimaginative offensive play calling, across-the-board onfield disorganization, repeated unreadiness by WHOLE TEAM at gametime on the road, and MORE--and yet, for all of that, the stubbornly inflexible failure so far to respond to ANY of it?
What will it take, and when will we SEE it?
By your reckoning, then, this is definitely a "gonna get worse before it gets better" situation...
It COULD get pretty DAMN "worse", too.
Do you envision a realistic road BACK?
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
Here are some crazy rumors that we can save for later.
NickAdamsinUSA says the boosters are making a run for Urban Meyer.
I see this as absurdly unwise--neither viable nor "forward thinking" (by DEFINITION).
I could write an extended essay on all the reasons why. Won't bother, though--I HAVE to assume that any rational analysis, historical or psychological, would immediately eliminate Urban from any such consideration.
In fact, the ONLY immediate response has to begin, "Oh come ON!!!"
 

DRU2012

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Staff member
Super Moderator
...Anyway, if we're "throwing around crazy ideas", I'd have to stick with mine:
Many are still screaming about "the end of the Saban Era" in Tuscaloosa...if things careened further out of control and further into Looney Land, the stars seemingly further aligned against us and God knows what else, well, THAT'S about the only figure worthy of our pursuing, IMHO.
Don't know what (if anything) it might take.
REALLY hope we do NOT face the kind of general circumstances that might even FIND us contemplating it--which in TURN actually brings us back to this "Urban Meyer" idea:
Not only is it a BAD idea, but the very possibility that "boosters" are pushing it, if true, is pretty scary--a real sign of how far out of WHACK things ARE out there now!
To me, it only underlines and reinforces the idea that maybe we just best settle down, take a deep breath, and get back to giving this whole "Slow Rebuild with Billy" the patient "time, MORE time" we were told from the start it would take.
I don't like the repeated "unforced errors", on the field AND on the sidelines that we are seeing--but it ain't exactly looking like there's a better option for us right now than "Giving it a CHANCE..."
 

Leakfan12

VIP Member
Why do College Programs/NFL teams sign coaches to 7-year deals? Maybe 4 or 5 years but that's it. Also, does Nick Adams have connections to UF? I don't believe what that douche said except for Gators fans being impatient. He's not lying for a change, we had a website wanting Ron Zook the day he was hired as head coach. As for the boosters making a play for Urban, Really? Maybe that would have been OK if not for the bar vid and kicking his kicker and even without his Jags tenure which was bad, I doubt many Gators would take Urban back. I don't. He left the Gators in a bad situation. As for Billy, I'm not sure. Is 7-5 in the regular season going to be enough to save Billy?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Why do College Programs/NFL teams sign coaches to 7-year deals? Maybe 4 or 5 years but that's it. Also, does Nick Adams have connections to UF? I don't believe what that douche said except for Gators fans being impatient. He's not lying for a change, we had a website wanting Ron Zook the day he was hired as head coach. As for the boosters making a play for Urban, Really? Maybe that would have been OK if not for the bar vid and kicking his kicker and even without his Jags tenure which was bad, I doubt many Gators would take Urban back. I don't. He left the Gators in a bad situation. As for Billy, I'm not sure. Is 7-5 in the regular season going to be enough to save Billy?
Good questions. I would sum it all up as "the cost of doing business in college football". Coaches hate being fired every 4 years just because some 20-year old kids are too stupid to win football games, and fans are too impatient to wait 4 years for results, so the coaches demand 7-10 year contracts.

Mark my words: Billy Napier can drive this team to a 3-9 record and still keep his job. He will probably get the Gators to 5-7, maybe 6-6. Of course, the loudest, most obnoxious Gator fans will call for Napier's firing if he does not guide the team to a 7 or 8 win season, but this team is not going to win that many games without a miracle or two or ten.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
Good questions. I would sum it all up as "the cost of doing business in college football". Coaches hate being fired every 4 years just because some 20-year old kids are too stupid to win football games, and fans are too impatient to wait 4 years for results, so the coaches demand 7-10 year contracts.

Mark my words: Billy Napier can drive this team to a 3-9 record and still keep his job. He will probably get the Gators to 5-7, maybe 6-6. Of course, the loudest, most obnoxious Gator fans will call for Napier's firing if he does not guide the team to a 7 or 8 win season, but this team is not going to win that many games without a miracle or two or ten.
Yeah--more like TEN at this point.
We are all sort of "slowly but surely" (though probably "in fits and starts" would be a more accurate way of putting it) coming around to the realization that August's "+/-.500" predictions are about the best we can hope for now.
Our Coach is sure BEHAVING as if he is pretty darn sure his job is safe for now REGARDLESS--that he more or less EXPECTED not just the ups and downs on this bumpy road, but the general loud blow-back from Gator Nation as a result.
As for all the things that have to change, well, IS it "stubborness" we are seeing in his continued refusal to add an OC mid-season, in a dogmatic continuation of a Florida offense virtually devoid of a vertical passing game? I could go on, add to that list, but my point is to ask ourselves if we are seeing "prideful inflexibility" or just a deep-seated belief that he doesn't yet have enough of the pieces he needs to DO a whole lot more?
I don't know; indeed, right now I'm merely tossing out whatever possible explanations come off the top of my head. I am frankly baffled and confused--This is all significantly worse than I expected.
It isn't so much the inconsistencies or even the prospect of losing at least half our games this season that has me down at this point...
It is a combinaction of all that with our Coach's strangely emotionless disconnect.
There's little to be learned in the up and down onfield performances, and even LESS from either his moves on the field OR his postgame comments.
So much has been said, here and elsewhere, I have little to add by now. And yet I must concede that I KNOW PRACTICALLY NOTHING--about where we are or where we are going. All that's left is to shut up, watch and witness.
I guess I'll simply react as future events dictate, like everyone else. That's all that is left to ANY of us this season, no?
 

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