Week 8 Sagarin Ratings

[Escambia94]

Jeff Sagarin's ELO chess-based ratings are usually the best at predicting the future, but I would combine this with the ESPN FPI to get an idea of the relative strengths of each team. Like the SEC Power Rankings, do not read into the ratings here as being predictive of CFP, AP, or Coach's Polls. The Sagarin Ratings are good at predicting hypothetical match-ups between teams at this point in time irrespective of biases that affect CFP, AP, and Coach's Polls. The takeaway here is that irrespective of the biases in the other polls, Ohio State is the most complete team. If these ratings hold, Florida is about the 39th-best team.

1 Ohio State
2 Georgia
3 Alabama
4 Michigan
5 Tennessee
6 Texas
7 Southern California
8 Clemson
9 Utah
10 Oregon
11 Oklahoma State
12 Mississippi
13 TCU
14 Mississippi State
15 LSU
16 Kansas State
17 UCF
18 Texas A&M
19 UCLA
20 Penn State
21 Wake Forest
22 Oklahoma
23 Iowa State
24 Illinois
25 Notre Dame
26 Baylor
27 Kentucky
28 Minnesota
29 Oregon State
30 Arkansas
31 Cincinnati
32 Washington
33 Wisconsin
34 Iowa
35 Purdue
36 Florida State
37 Syracuse
38 Maryland
39 Florida
40 NC State

 

[DRU2012]

(Groan...)

 

[Escambia94]

The Sagarin ratings also tell is a few other things:
- LSU is doing better in year 1 under a new coach because his predecessor recruited 65 very good athletes between 2018-2021.
- FSU is doing poorly in year 3 of their coach because his predecessor recruited poorly between 2018-2019. The other crappy athletes are his. In 2022 they have shown signs that they are about to turn things around in year 3.
- Tennessee has hit their stride in year 2 of their coach, but it is too early to tell if this is sustainable.

 

[DRU2012]

OK...Look into that chrystatistical ball and give us a theoretical glimpse of (assuming Billy & Co. continue their upward trend in recruiting into and through his first full cycle and 2nd season, AND with the understanding that the BEST any numbers can offer is some qualified ""maybe"--IF things line up right and break our way) when we'll begin to see clear, positive results ON THE FIELD...and how strong and fast those results will hit once they do?
I know, I know--it's a crap shoot at best, but still:
It has to potentially mean SOMETHING, lead to SOME sort of "logical conclusion" based on the effort made collecting the data and projecting its impact empirically.

 

[DRU2012]

(...5+ hours later and still no reply...)
(Play the theme from Jeopardy?)

 

[DRU2012]

24 hours and still counting...
This is an important question, from my P.O.V., mainly due to impatience, I suppose--and a growing sense of my own mortality!