Week 15: #6 Florida Gators 34, LSU Tigers 17 - 12/12/2020

[Escambia94]

On Saturday, December 12th, 2020 the #6 Florida Gators (8-1) defend the Swamp one last time this season by hosting the Bengal Tigers of Louisiana State University (3-5) under the lights at 7:00 PM. This game is set to air over ESPN with a very special guest Ms. Two Bits and Miss Florida 2012, Laura Rutledge. If you do not like listening to Sean McDonough, Todd Blackledge, and Todd McShay, I recommend you mute the audio and listen to Mick Hubert over WRUF on the Gator IMG Sports Network. The Gators are favored by 23 and the O/U is at 69.5.

The Bengal Tigahs are coming off one of their worst defensive performances in recent memory, a 17-55 beatdown at the hands of the Alabama Crimson Tide. In that game TJ Finley was 14/28 for 144 yards and 1 TD (72.7 QBR) and Max Johnson was 11/17 for 110 yards (71.3 QBR). LSU did manage 98 rushing yards, but a fumble did not help their cause. Against common opponent Texas A&M registered nearly identical stats as they did against Alabama, but with more interceptions on their way to a 7-20 loss. LSU managed an entire 36 yards rushing against the Aggies. Compare that against the Gators' 90 yards rushing against A&M and 312 yards passing in a much closer 38-41 loss and by the transitive property one could assume the Gators should have a good day against LSU. LSU's other common opponents include a 41-7 victory against Vanderbilt (back when they had Brennan at QB), a 41-45 loss to Missouri, a 52-24 victory over South Carolina, a 24-27 loss to Arkansas, and the aforementioned loss to Texas A&M.

The Fightin' Gators are 33-30-3 all-time against the Bengal Tigahs in a rivalry that goes back to 1937. The Gators and the Tigers have split the last two--a 27-19 victory in 2018 and a 28-42 loss in 2019 that was closer than the score shows. Florida leads the series in the Swamp 16-13-3 and are tied in Baton Rouge at 17-17.

Look for the Gators to spread the ball around, as they are the only team in the nation with three players with 8+ touchdown receptions (Kyle Pitts, Tre Grimes, and Kadarius Toney). Only the 1996 Gators were this diverse with Reidel Anthony, Ike Hilliard, and Jacquez Green. The Gators are #7 in the nation with 7.35 yards per play. The only other team from Florida that averaged more than 7.1 was the 1995 Gators at 7.4 yards per play. Last year the Gators averaged 6.47 yards per play, which was good for #16 in the nation. The last time the Gators were close to 7 yards per play was in 2009. With a struggling running game, you can bet the Gators are going to take to the air. Florida's 376.7 yards per game leads the FBS and puts them on pace to be #2 in Gator history to the 2001 team (405.2). That 2001 team was the only team in school history to lead the nation in passing offense. If Trask keeps on this pace he will shatter the Gator record for passer rating with his current rating being 190.5. Daniel Carl Wuerffel currently holds the UF record with 171.8, set in 1995. Trask's 38 TD passes leads the nation by 8 and is #3 in FBS history behind Houston's Andre Ware (40 in 1989) and Hawaii's Colt Brennan (39 in 2006). Trask is on pace to break school records held by Rex Grossman with passing yards per game (360.3 vs 354.2) as well as the aforementioned passer rating held by Danny Wuerffel. Kyle Pitts' 11 TD catches are the most by a Gator in one season since Jabar Gaffney hauled in 13 in 2001. Pitts is also #2 in the Gators' single season TD reception list. Although the offensive juggernaut has slowed down a bit these past few weeks, they are still #10 in points per game with 42.

I predict that the Gators will mount 500+ yards of offense on the hapless LSU Tigers and cruise to a 45-17 victory, assuming the Gators do not get caught looking ahead to Alabama.

 

[DRU2012]

The Gators are in a position to handle this one in a number of different ways—it’s up to them.
They can pretty well “name their score”—oil up their offense and put Kyle Trask pretty well “up close and personal with” the Heisman (though the SEC Championship Game’s results could still have some “final bearing” on that too!)...
Personally, I’d recommend they NOT get “too cute” out there:
To hell with “slow starts”: It is a NIGHT GAME IN THE SWAMP...
It’s a DAMN SHAME that once again, Covid should impinge upon Senior Night AND rob us of much of what would be OUR home field advantage, under the circumstances. (Wish they’d have ok’d a LITTLE better crowd, at least.)
Just go out there. Drive the field several times in the FIRST half. Defense shows they don’t need to “spot ‘em a coupla scores” before waking up and shutting them DOWN. Get up at LEAST 3 TDS at the half, then start rotating 2s and 3s in freely in the second half.
That should be doable—AND both get necessary work in, and show as little more as possible (unless Coach Dan WANTS to give Nick “something to think about”!). Get out of there with another multi-digit-spread win, then turn to getting ready for the FOLLOWING week in ATLANTA.
GO GATORS!

 

[Leakfan12]

Guessing ESPN will air Laura do her Two Bits Cheer. Also, which quarterback will we see? Finley or Brad's son? or both?

 

[Escambia94]

Guessing ESPN will air Laura do her Two Bits Cheer. Also, which quarterback will we see? Finley or Brad's son? or both?

Lately they have been splitting reps nearly 50/50 between Finley and Johnson, but anything can happen in what may be their last game of the season (unless they think they will play Ole Miss the following week).

 

[DRU2012]

Guessing ESPN will air Laura do her Two Bits Cheer. Also, which quarterback will we see? Finley or Brad's son? or both?

Lately they have been splitting reps nearly 50/50 between Finley and Johnson, but anything can happen in what may be their last game of the season (unless they think they will play Ole Miss the following week).

No matter what, just GO OUT THERE AND TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS.
Do NOT F-around out there this Saturday night. Get what work you think you need DONE, take care of business then GET OUT OF THERE HEALTHY.
Best way to do that is to take it seriously, rotate freely, take what they are giving you and on the whole, stay cool.
We got the right Coach in charge—and as it turns out, the exact right QB to carry out his plans and instructions—and a cast of characters steadily coming into their own around him.
We’re gonna need them all, hitting on all cylinders when we turn to our NEXT opponent the FOLLOWING week in Atlanta!

 

[DRU2012]

It’s Thursday night, 47 hours before kickoff in the Swamp against LSU, and “glass-half-empty-guy” that I am, I must express my growing sense of foreboding regarding this game.
Yes: we are at this moment “currently the better TEAM”...BUT...
THAT is mostly the result of OFF-THE-FIELD issues, and here’s the thing: This is a young, but (even with all its “missing pieces”) nonetheless TALENTED LSU squad—a “collection of players” that has at best sputtered as a TEAM.
My fear is that they COULD put a decent game together, rise up and beat us.
You can’t have missed the fact that OUR guys have neither started well, nor though having consistently awakened and taken charge, have convincingly sustained that dominance throughout the remainder of a game. On top of that is the simple certainty that we come into this WITHOUT A DOUBT “looking ahead” to NEXT WEEK’S game in Atlanta—have BEEN “looking ahead” to a growing degree for several WEEK’S now.
OK. That’s a given at this point, let’s face it. We know that our Head Coach sees and faces such things squarely.
He knows how to get his players’ attention and how to identify and press the right buttons. We are COUNTING on that now. I suppose then that it comes down to this:
Say we are in-line at Gainesville’s Oaks Mall (or is that place extinct by now?) and waiting to see Santa Gator...What do we ask for?
Me, I’m going for ONE COMPLETE GAME here: A steady, balanced and full performance from beginning to end, in every phase of the game. Come out of it healthy and with a solid WIN; Kyle Trask breaks Wuerfel’s passing record and THEN some, then gets to sit and watch Emory run the offense along with the 2s and 3s, all tuning up THEIR games the better part of the second half.
Am I asking for too much? Being a typically spoiled and greedy little Gator fan? OK: How bout just a decent win—and no one seriously injured?
...a nice tune-up for the much-anticipated SEC Championship.
Just no bumbling let-down “lump-o’-coal”, OK? Be real nice to be able to settle back and ENJOY a game, beginning to end, for a change.
After everything ELSE we’ve seen this season, we haven’t seen that—and we are CAPABLE of it, especially THIS Gator Team against this particular LSU team at this particular time. But we will still have to go out and TAKE it!
Go GATORS!

 

[DRU2012]

Not a peep from ANYONE last couple/few days.
A mark of nervousness? Or disinterest?
My guess is that this is because the only “acceptable” outcome would be a nice, easy and smooth Gator WIN—the one thing we just haven’t pulled off, start-to-finish, the whole season thus far!
So. We sit here, in tense uncertainty.
Tired of our own lack of insight and/or conviction.
“I THINK we’re good.”
“We OUGHT to be ready.”
“What remains to be said?”
“ — “
(Insert appropriate summary abovè.)

 

[DRU2012]

A number of “old Gator friends” have unexpectedly reached out to me privately the last day or so in order to say hello and to express confidence in this team AND in our winning this specific game AND noting our “RE-rise to prominence” in GENERAL under Dan Mullens—and how WELCOME that is, ESPECIALLY in this “YEAR OF COVID” and “SOCIAL FAILURE AND POLITICAL COWARDICE” (admittedly, in BOTH cases, MY “terms” for inescapeably notable realities.)

 

[DRU2012]

Nuff said.
Onward, my friends.

 

[Escambia94]

Tim Tebow and Jordan Rodgers have speculated that the Gator coaching staff is preparing two sets of plays for today, one for LSU and one for Alabama.

Gators Breakdown pointed out that the Gators and the Tide actually run the same running plays, but the big difference is the obvious disparity with the offensive line and to a lesser degree at running back. Oddly enough, the Gators' trio of Davis/Pierce/Wright actually run to the right behind Jean DeLance and Stewart Reese better than Alabama's Najee Harris. The key to Alabama's running game is on the left side with Alex Leatherwood and Deonte Brown.

Florida may find some success running against LSU's Ali Gaye, Neil Farrell, Glen Logan, and Andre Anthony. The Gators may also follow Murph Baldwin's suggestion and manufacture yards from scrimmage out of the backfield through a mix of screens, wheel routes, flat routes, and alert routes. When the Gators are in a "21" personnel grouping (2 RBs + 1 TE + 3 WRs), expect flat routes and screen routes. When the Gators are in "10" personnel groupings (1 RB + 0 TE + 4 WRs, or 1 RB + 1 Kyle Pitts at flex + 3 WRs), the ball could go anywhere among the 3 levels of Mullen's passing system.

• 22 (2 RB + 2 TE + 1 WR) = short yardage. The tipoff would be if Kyle Pitts came off the field and both Zipperer and Gamble covered the left and right side of the formation. I would like to see this formation with Pitts flexed out wide, which is effectively a 3 TE formation with Pitts playing off the ball for an option route.
  
• 21 (2 RB + 1 TE + 2 WR) = medium yardage or classic formation. This is what Spurrier acolytes love to see: an I-Pro, split-back, or strong-I formation that forces defenses to defend the run and the pass at the same time. The Mullen version has not featured a true FB since 2008 (TJ Pridemore), with Billy Latsko being the first FB introduced to the Meyer/Mullen Utah offense before that.
  
• 13 (1 RB, 3 TE + 1 WR) = short yardage "jumbo". This is not common within the Mullen playbook, but it has been used on rare occasion. If you see Pitts, Zipperer, and Gamble on the field at the same time, assume they are looking for ways to get the running game against Alabama using LSU as a proxy. Mullen will probably have Pitts in motion running a "jerk" or a "whip". A modification to this would be using the 12 grouping and putting either Pitts or Toney in motion in order to open up run power. 9 times out of 10 this is run with Trask under center.
  
• 12 (1 RB + 2 TE + 2 WR) = short yardage. Typically used with Zipperer and Gamble.
  
• 11 (1 RB + 1 TE + 3 WR) = medium yardage or base formation. This formation is used along with 21 because of Kyle Pitts' flexibility as a TE or flex receiver.
  
• 10 (1RB + 0 TE + 4 WR) = 1st or 2nd down and long. If you see twin sets of receivers on both the boundary side and field side of the formation. The Gators often use trips-right or trips-left with a single receiver on the opposite site.
• 32 (3 RB + 2 TE + 0 WR) is not used by the Gators or anyone other than the wishbone* (includes flexbone or any other "option") teams. The Gators could certainly "cheat" and use Pitts as the WR and making this a 31 grouping, but the Gators do not have 3 RBs that could pound the ball.
• 31 (3 RB + 1 TE + 1 WR) is not used by the Gators or anyone other than wishbone* teams. As mentioned above, this could be used with Pitts as the 1 WR, or with Pitts as an H-back. The Gators did use this with Aaron Hernandez back in the day on the goal line, but they had the advantage of using Tim Tebow as another RB.

One reason football analysts and fans alike are frustrated with the Gator offense is that without a running game, the Gators have failed nearly 100% of the time at accomplishing goal number one of the Urban Meyer/ Dan Mullen offense: force the safety to commit to the line of scrimmage and beat the single-high coverage. Mullen compensates for this by manufacturing yards from scrimmage out of the running backs via non-traditional means. Analyzing the formations above normally are sufficient for a defensive scheme beating an offensive scheme. Coaches like Mullen and Leach have some success in using schemes to buck the trend as use inferior talent to beat superior talent. LSU is dangerous because they have superior talent in spots across the roster, but they lack a good scheme, good team leadership, and overall motivation. Assuming the Tigers do not suddenly get motivated to use their superior talent, I would expect the Gators to secretly practice portions of their Alabama game plan against LSU.

 

[DRU2012]

Tim Tebow and Jordan Rodgers have speculated that the Gator coaching staff is preparing two sets of plays for today, one for LSU and one for Alabama.

Gators Breakdown pointed out that the Gators and the Tide actually run the same running plays, but the big difference is the obvious disparity with the offensive line and to a lesser degree at running back. Oddly enough, the Gators' trio of Davis/Pierce/Wright actually run to the right behind Jean DeLance and Stewart Reese better than Alabama's Najee Harris. The key to Alabama's running game is on the left side with Alex Leatherwood and Deonte Brown.

Florida may find some success running against LSU's Ali Gaye, Neil Farrell, Glen Logan, and Andre Anthony. The Gators may also follow Murph Baldwin's suggestion and manufacture yards from scrimmage out of the backfield through a mix of screens, wheel routes, flat routes, and alert routes. When the Gators are in a "21" personnel grouping (2 RBs + 1 TE + 3 WRs), expect flat routes and screen routes. When the Gators are in "10" personnel groupings (1 RB + 0 TE + 4 WRs, or 1 RB + 1 Kyle Pitts at flex + 3 WRs), the ball could go anywhere among the 3 levels of Mullen's passing system.

• 22 (2 RB + 2 TE + 1 WR) = short yardage. The tipoff would be if Kyle Pitts came off the field and both Zipperer and Gamble covered the left and right side of the formation. I would like to see this formation with Pitts flexed out wide, which is effectively a 3 TE formation with Pitts playing off the ball for an option route.
  
• 21 (2 RB + 1 TE + 2 WR) = medium yardage or classic formation. This is what Spurrier acolytes love to see: an I-Pro, split-back, or strong-I formation that forces defenses to defend the run and the pass at the same time. The Mullen version has not featured a true FB since 2008 (TJ Pridemore), with Billy Latsko being the first FB introduced to the Meyer/Mullen Utah offense before that.
  
• 13 (1 RB, 3 TE + 1 WR) = short yardage "jumbo". This is not common within the Mullen playbook, but it has been used on rare occasion. If you see Pitts, Zipperer, and Gamble on the field at the same time, assume they are looking for ways to get the running game against Alabama using LSU as a proxy. Mullen will probably have Pitts in motion running a "jerk" or a "whip". A modification to this would be using the 12 grouping and putting either Pitts or Toney in motion in order to open up run power. 9 times out of 10 this is run with Trask under center.
  
• 12 (1 RB + 2 TE + 2 WR) = short yardage. Typically used with Zipperer and Gamble.
  
• 11 (1 RB + 1 TE + 3 WR) = medium yardage or base formation. This formation is used along with 21 because of Kyle Pitts' flexibility as a TE or flex receiver.
  
• 10 (1RB + 0 TE + 4 WR) = 1st or 2nd down and long. If you see twin sets of receivers on both the boundary side and field side of the formation. The Gators often use trips-right or trips-left with a single receiver on the opposite site.
• 32 (3 RB + 2 TE + 0 WR) is not used by the Gators or anyone other than the wishbone* (includes flexbone or any other "option") teams. The Gators could certainly "cheat" and use Pitts as the WR and making this a 31 grouping, but the Gators do not have 3 RBs that could pound the ball.
• 31 (3 RB + 1 TE + 1 WR) is not used by the Gators or anyone other than wishbone* teams. As mentioned above, this could be used with Pitts as the 1 WR, or with Pitts as an H-back. The Gators did use this with Aaron Hernandez back in the day on the goal line, but they had the advantage of using Tim Tebow as another RB.

One reason football analysts and fans alike are frustrated with the Gator offense is that without a running game, the Gators have failed nearly 100% of the time at accomplishing goal number one of the Urban Meyer/ Dan Mullen offense: force the safety to commit to the line of scrimmage and beat the single-high coverage. Mullen compensates for this by manufacturing yards from scrimmage out of the running backs via non-traditional means. Analyzing the formations above normally are sufficient for a defensive scheme beating an offensive scheme. Coaches like Mullen and Leach have some success in using schemes to buck the trend as use inferior talent to beat superior talent. LSU is dangerous because they have superior talent in spots across the roster, but they lack a good scheme, good team leadership, and overall motivation. Assuming the Tigers do not suddenly get motivated to use their superior talent, I would expect the Gators to secretly practice portions of their Alabama game plan against LSU.

That’s a pretty complicated game plan, though...I mean, it sort of goes directly AGAINST the “one game at a time”, “keep it simple” and a few other “common sense”-cliches Coaches (including OUR coaches) preach relentlessly as they lead their teams down the stretch.
They are NOT necessarily wrong, however: I suppose the idea is to blithely ACT as if you ARE following those timeless “rules” even as you quietly break them, one-by-one in various ways as needed in the course of specific games against particular teams—depending on the situation.
Flexibility: It might be Mullens’ strongest overall advantage as a Coach...

 

[Escambia94]

That’s a pretty complicated game plan, though...I mean, it sort of goes directly AGAINST the “one game at a time”, “keep it simple” and a few other “common sense”-cliches Coaches (including OUR coaches) preach relentlessly as they lead their teams down the stretch.
You are NOT necessarily wrong, however: I suppose the idea is to blithely ACT as if you ARE following those timeless “rules” even as you quietly break them, one-by-one in various ways as needed in the course of specific games against particular teams—depending on the situation.
Flexibility: It might be Mullens’ strongest overall advantage as a Coach...

I am merely passing along what Tebow said on the air. They played FSU with some plays that the coordinators worked in as practice for Alabama.

 

[DRU2012]

I am merely passing along what Tebow said on the air. They played FSU with some plays that the coordinators worked in as practice for Alabama.

Yup—Sorry: I changed how I put the above, as a matter of fact...Realized (upon rereading it) and simply changed “YOU are not necessarily wrong...” to “THEY are not...” for that very reason.

 

[DRU2012]

By the way, that kid on our basketball squad who collapsed early in the FSU game earlier is now reported in a Tallahassee hospital in “Critical but stable condition...”
WTF happened there? I have only scene the shots of its aftermath. Any word on what was/is actually wrong with him?
(I am unable to find out anything further.)

 

[DRU2012]

And another note from the “sinking feeling”-Department:
After looking like they were “eminently beatable”—or at least “matchable”!—for the first nearly 15 minutes against Arkansas, Alabama seemed to “do their usual thing”, EFFORTLESSLY “flip a switch” and dominate from then on—basically outscoring the Razorbacks 52-0 the rest of the way. While we do have the tools to do the same, I think, can’t say we’ve seen us DO it so far—NOT with the ominously consistency that the Tide routinely goes about THEIR business.
Ah well, this is exactly why I am TRYING to “stay in the moment”, enjoy our victories HERE AND NOW as we face and check off the challenges at hand, one by one. We will DISCUSS (and WORRY ABOUT) Alabama WHEN WE PLAY THEM. One thing the events of this year should have taught us is NOT TO BORROW TROUBLE. It neither helps nor CHANGES anything.
So—we focus on the task at hand, the mountain in front of us! In less than an hour, our Seniors lead us against LSU in their last game in the Swamp.
There is so much to play for.
(And by the way: Coastal Carolina is sadly learning how HARD it is to sustain that “winning edge” game-in/game-out for a WHOLE SEASON, no matter WHAT level of competition you are regularly facing...)

 

[DRU2012]

Then again, sometimes the “feel good” stories hold for a while longer:
After seemingly bumbling away the lead late in their game, they then drive the field and retake the lead at the end after all. At a certain point, you can feed on that kind of “expectation of success”!
But IDEALLY you do things the Saban/Alabama Way: Recruit strength and depth across the board, Coach thorough awareness and efficiency, expect perfection and mutual support come game day. Leave as little as possible to chance.
However: Where there are TWO teams that are built that way, I’LL take the one that’s having FUN. That MAY ultimately distinguish a Mullen-lead “GATOR TEAM TO BE”, from the current Saban-led Tide-squad that already exists. WE are not quite “there” yet—things would probably have to break our way in a LOT of ways for us to win through NOW.
But our day is coming, don’t you feel it?
And when it does, it’ll be satisfyingly FUN for all concerned!
OK...We are just a few moments from kickoff now in The Swamp.

 

[DRU2012]

Would like to see us score a little quicker here early...now they have to kick the fg.
Now they decide to go?

 

[DRU2012]

And they can’t get one yard. Sad.
I agree with going for it—but DAMN.

 

[DRU2012]

Um...I have already promised myself I would NOT look ahead to Alabama here tonight—which leaves me with “no comment” after that last failure on 4th and goal from the One.
They better shut them down here.

 

[DRU2012]

Come ON, Gators. How bout a DEFENSIVE score?