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Week 12 CFP Projections

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
1. Georgia (10-0) | Prev: 1 — Georgia is the SEC East champion. Beat #7 LSU and they maintain #1 ranking heading into the CFP. Lose to LSU and they drop to #4 more than likely.

2. Ohio State (10-0) | Prev: 2 — Ohio State only needs to beat #3 Michigan to hold its ranking. A loss to Michigan might flip the order.

3. Michigan (10-0) | Prev: 3 — Michigan has two ranked opponents left, including #2 Ohio State.

4. TCU (10-0) | Prev: 4 — Unless TCU loses a game, the committee won't drop the Horned Frogs in the regular season. They have Baylor, Iowa State, and the conference championship remaining.

5. Tennessee (9-1) | Prev: 5 — Tennessee can sneak into the top 4 if Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU get upset.

No other team has a realistic shot at a CFP berth.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
1. Georgia (10-0) | Prev: 1 — Georgia is the SEC East champion. Beat #7 LSU and they maintain #1 ranking heading into the CFP. Lose to LSU and they drop to #4 more than likely.

2. Ohio State (10-0) | Prev: 2 — Ohio State only needs to beat #3 Michigan to hold its ranking. A loss to Michigan might flip the order.

3. Michigan (10-0) | Prev: 3 — Michigan has two ranked opponents left, including #2 Ohio State.

4. TCU (10-0) | Prev: 4 — Unless TCU loses a game, the committee won't drop the Horned Frogs in the regular season. They have Baylor, Iowa State, and the conference championship remaining.

5. Tennessee (9-1) | Prev: 5 — Tennessee can sneak into the top 4 if Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, and TCU get upset.

No other team has a realistic shot at a CFP berth.
Pretty darn "Feh..." from where I'm standing.
Not that adding all the mixed-messages of this 12-team, wildcard-LOADED expansion they supposedly are ready to "phase in" sometime between 2024 and 2026.
Talk about "wanting your cake and WANTING TO EAT IT TOO!!!" They tried to cover EVERYBODY'S "favorite equalizer"--starting with "The Committee" (The CFB Playoff Committee), in turn choosing 4 who gain an immediate pass, in turn playing in a second round, each against one of the winners of a 4-on-4 Round 1, altogether 12 teams involved in an over-complicated in both rules of ranked entry and who plays who.
Which would all look pretty damn foolish in a season like this one, where there are so FEW truly "Elite" Units to start with, and imperfections had already been ripped open for all to see well before the end of the REGULAR season, let alone requiring a 12-team playoff!
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
If there were not so much money in bowl games I would be fine with a true playoff system. It would require creation of an NFL-like entity to oversee college football separately from other collegiate athletics, which will never happen. Hence we are stuck with this half-ass system.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
If there were not so much money in bowl games I would be fine with a true playoff system. It would require creation of an NFL-like entity to oversee college football separately from other collegiate athletics, which will never happen. Hence we are stuck with this half-ass system.
Yup. That pretty handily sums up MY P.O.V.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Compare Florida's bowl outlook just a month ago to where we are today:
Bowl projections based on SEC ranking, CFP projections, and and bowl alignment are as follows:

SEC Rank week 6TeamBowl
1Alabama (6-0, 2-0)CFP22 Semifinal (SEC)
2Georgia (6-0, 3-0)CFP22 Semifinal (SEC)
3Tennessee (5-0, 2-0)Cotton vs Big 12
4Ole Miss (6-0, 2-0)Sugar vs Big 12
5LSU (4-2, 2-1)Citrus vs Big Ten
6Mississippi State (5-1, 2-1)Liberty vs Big 12
7Texas A&M (3-3, 1-2)Texas vs Big 12
8Kentucky (4-2, 1-2)Reliaquest vs ACC or Big Ten
9Florida (4-2, 1-2)Las Vegas vs Pac-12
10Auburn (3-3, 1-2)Gator vs ACC
11South Carolina (4-2, 1-2)Music City vs Big Ten
12Arkansas (3-3, 1-3)Birmingham vs AAC
13Missouri (2-3, 0-3)Gasparilla vs AAC, ACC, or Pac-12
14Vanderbilt (3-3, 0-2)none

In week 6 Florida was #9 of 14 SEC teams and was projected to finish at (6-6, 4-4). Heading into week 11 Florida is now the #6 team and is projected to finish (7-5, 4-4) with a chance at going (8-4, 4-4).


SEC Rank week 11TeamBowl
1Georgia (10-0, 7-0)CFP22 Semifinal (SEC)
2Tennessee (9-1, 5-1)CFP22 Semifinal (SEC)
3LSU (8-2, 6-1)Sugar vs Big 12 (Kansas State)
4Alabama (8-2, 5-2)Orange vs ACC (Clemson)
5Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)Citrus vs Big Ten (Penn State)
6Florida (6-4, 3-4)Reliaquest vs Big Ten (Purdue)
7Mississippi State (6-4, 3-4)Gator vs Big Ten (Notre Dame)
8Kentucky (6-4, 3-4)Texas vs Big 12 (Baylor)
9South Carolina (6-4, 3-4)Las Vegas vs Pac-12 (UCLA)
10Arkansas (5-5, 2-4)none or Birmingham vs AAC
11Auburn (4-6, 2-5)none
12Missouri (4-6, 2-5)none
13Vanderbilt (4-6, 1-5)none
14Texas A&M (3-7, 1-6)none
 
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DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
In Year One of the Billy Napier era, Florida has lost to the #1 CFP team by 22, the #5 CFP team by 5, and the #6 CFP team by 10. And beaten the #10 CFP team. After Vanderbilt we get one final chance to measure Napier’s progress against #19 FSU.
After the promising performance in our opener this season, we pretty well screwed the pooch through the "Cocktail Party"...Began to finally display progress in larger steps from the middle (halftime) of that one ON--and appear finally a changed-and-STILL changing squad still...
We aren't "THERE" yet...I could see us BEING "THERE" by 2024...A "decent" recruiting outcome THIS off season, an even BETTER ONE putting us RIGHT THERE NEXT year, our just NOT being even "REALLY close" quite YET.
How we finish this schedule, and the recruiting cycle, will go a long way towards shaping the stage we'll step onto in 2023.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
The latest bowl prediction is Florida-Iowa in the Reliaquest Bowl.
RkTeamRecFBSF+OF+RkDF+RkFEIRkSP+Rk
#19Iowa
6-4​
5-4.95-.811002.352.532112.820
#22
Florida​
6-4​
5-4​
.85​
1.17​
19​
.05​
61​
.53​
20​
10.1​
29​

RkTeamA-scoreRecSched Rkvs Top 10vs Top 30PredPred Rk
#21Iowa81.497-4210-21-279.6 #28
#30Florida78.956-5191-31-378.5#33

Florida and Iowa are similar in terms of F+/FEI and Sagarin ratings.
 

DRU2012

Super Moderator
Staff member
Super Moderator
We probably won't have Torrance (on D) or Richardson (our QB-1) for this supposed matchup--both likely sitting, having declared for the pro-draft...That's how things are these days; with all the money that's on the line, why should a young man risk his health and a pending BIG PAYDAY (life-changing cash for himself and his family)?
I know the arguments, both sides. I just see the way things have long been headed--and little sign that they'll somehow reverse themselves here.
 

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