Week 11: #6 Florida Gators 63, Arkansas Razorbacks 35 - 11/14/2020

[Escambia94]

The #11 Gators (4-1) will do their best to make former Gator QB Feleipe Franks and his Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3) unwelcome in his return home to the Swamp. The Gators are favored by 17 with an O/U of 60.5 in this 6:00 PM Central/ 7:00 PM Eastern Time kickoff on ESPN.

The Gators are 9-2 against the Razorbacks all time, 4-0 in Gainesville, 3-1 in Fayetteville, and 2-1 in neutral sites. UF's 212 points at this point are the highest total in any 5-game stretch against SEC opponents since 2008. Trasks' 22 passing TDs through 5 games is tied for #2 with Joe Burrow 2019 and one behind #1 Tua Tagovailoa 2019. His 22 TDs are also the 3rd-most through 5 games among hypothetical and actual Heisman QBs since 1990. The Gators are coming off their 10th game of 500+ total yards under Dan Mullen, with 6 of those coming against SEC opponents. For comparison, the Gators had 9 such games since Mullen left Gainesville at the conclusion of the 2008 season. The Gators are also coming off their 4th win over a top-10 team under Mullen as head coach after going 5-11 against such teams since Mullen left. Kyle Trask is the first SEC QB to ever log 5 straight games with 4+ passing touchdowns.

The Gators are riding high after finally knocking off a depleted Georgia team 44-28 last week. The Gators should be favored to win the rest of their regular season games, which can make each game a potential letdown if the Gators get complacent. Absent of any context Feleipe Franks' history with the Gators this would look on paper to be an easy win for Florida; however, there is always concern that Franks' understanding of the Florida play calls could help Arkansas' already staunch defense. Franks is 123/183 (67.2%) for 1,428 yards, 14 TD and 3 INT for a rating of 154.7. His performance at Arkansas is a slight step back from where he was in 2019 as a Gator in may ways, but he is doing an excellent job of minimizing interceptions. His deep ball is still one of the best in the SEC, which could be dangerous for the Gators lethargic secondary. Franks' replacement at QB, Kyle Trask, is 125/182 (68.7%) for 1,815 yards, 22 TD and 3 INT for a rating of 189.0. Trask is coming off a record performance that garnered Maxwell Award Player of the Week honors.

On defense the teams are nearly identical:

• Florida #59 total defense, 5 games, 356 plays, 2010 yards, 5.65 YPP, 19 TD allowed, 402.0 YPG
• Arkansas #58 total defense, 6 games, 467 plays, 2409 yards, 5.16 UPP, 19 TD allowed, 401.5 YPG

On offense the Gators have a distinct advantage:

• Florida #17 total offense, 5 games, 334 plays, 2477 yards, 7.42 YPP, 26 TDs, 495.4 YPG
• Arkansas #84 total offense, 6 games, 430 plays, 2260 yards, 5.26 YPP, 16 TDs, 376.7 YPG

The Gators have the #8 most efficient passing offense (189.0 RAT) compared to Arkansas' #29 (154.7 RAT). In terms of rushing efficiency the Gators are #71 (4.24 YPR, 126.4 YPG) and the Razorbacks are #94 (3.43 YPR, 138.2 YPG).

Arkansas' strength is with taking care of the ball, as they are #11 in turnover margin with 3 FUM REC, 12 INT, 3 FUM. Florida is #55 with 4 FUM REC, 4 INT, 3 FUM.

The Razorbacks are known to be scrappy and have won all 3 of their games by coming back from behind after being the underdog in all 6 games. Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman tested positive for COVID-19 and may not be able to coach on Saturday, so expect defensive coordinator Barry Odom to lead the Razorbacks out of the tunnel. The Razorbacks' primary offensive weapon will be wide receiver Treylon Burks (31 catches, 461 yards, 14.9 YPC, 5 TD) and their best defensive player is former walk-on linebacker Grant Morgan.

The Gator defense continues to be a liability, but the offense has shown that it can compensate by nearly scoring at will. I predict a 42-28 victory for the Gators in a game that will be uncomfortably close until the 4th quarter.

 

[DRU2012]

(Actually, my post moments ago over on the “...Trask being Trask?” thread best summarizes my feelings going INTO this game...To paraphrase Ol’ Raiders’-owner “Davis”, “Just win, baby...”
Our continuing to show growth, depth and evolution, and no LET DOWN after finally knocking off UGA in Jacksonville last Saturday, will go a LONG way towards our proving ourselves TO ourselves—and EVERYONE ELSE!
Doing it without Pitts, as I suspect we’ll have to (I hope not, but the way everything ELSE has gone so far this year, well...), will only put the exclamation point on it all.
I mean it: Get out there and beat Franks and that resurgent Razorbacks squad and we are on our way, I think—the rest of our regular season begins to look more and more a “downhill ride” after that, if we are composed and take care of business here.
“EAT ‘EM UP, GATORS!! “)

 

[Leakfan12]

We want this game for at least one reason beat Franks.

 

[DRU2012]

We want this game for at least one reason beat Franks.

Oh yes.
No outright HOSTILITY towards Filipe (not really—except that he and his new team are in our WAY now!), but we MUST beat him and THEM.
Beat them DOWN, if we can.
Yes, he was once our/THEIR (somewhat flawed) “leader”—but we/they can show NO MERCY now!
Oh, I suppose we can take the foot off the gas if we are up big late in the game—but (unless it is a big time BLOWOUT), even THAT is dangerous thinking/feeling. Leave those kind of decisions to our Head Coach, boys.
Franks is NOT a Gator anymore. He is trying to ruin our/YOUR season—so let’s go out there and RUIN HIS DAY!

 

[Leakfan12]

Oh yes.
No outright HOSTILITY towards Filipe (not really—except that he and his new team are in our WAY now!), but we MUST beat him and THEM.
Beat them DOWN, if we can.
Yes, he was once our/THEIR (somewhat flawed) “leader”—but we/they can show NO MERCY now!
Oh, I suppose we can take the foot off the gas if we are up big late in the game—but (unless it is a big time BLOWOUT), even THAT is dangerous thinking/feeling. Leave those kind of decisions to our Head Coach, boys.
Franks is NOT a Gator anymore. He is trying to ruin our/YOUR season—so let’s go out there and RUIN HIS DAY!

Agreed this isn't going against Ohio State but we want the Gators to win.

 

[Escambia94]

Retired Marine Sgt. Maj. Sandra Torres-Pinto will serve as Honorary Ms. Two Bits during the Gators' "Saluting Those Who Serve" game against Arkansas on Saturday. Oorah!

From her LinkedIn account: Sandra obtained her Master of Arts degree in Student Personnel in Higher Education in 2018. She has been a coordinator of veterans and military success stories at Santa Fe College since 2014.

 

[DRU2012]

PS. THURSDAY NIGHT (09/12)
It is worth noting that when I went on YouTube a little while ago, without even having expressed particular interest in such “controversy” there in the past (I DO subscribe to the “usual” GATOR YouTube offerings—BUT...)
as of this evening I found a number of late-arriving videos predicting our being ambushed by this “resurgent Arkansas program”.
A number of these clearly originate from Razorback-contributors—but a couple of additions from guys at well-known Gator-sites have shown up with belated warnings of, well, not so much our necessarily LOSING this game, but it turning out to “be a close one after all!”...In at least one case this is from folks who had previously had us winning handily. I don’t necessarily disagree about this game possibly being a little tougher than many seemed to assume when it was first posted earlier this Fall (I personally warned of my “possible misgivings” upon the “revised schedule’s” release), but their strangely “last minute panicky” nature raises questions.
So look: There are dangers lurking ahead for us in this one—I’d feel
A WHOLE lot better if we had Pitts AND a full house in The Swamp—but as long as we remain composed, take NOTHING for granted and put a decent, complete game together (as MULLENS and his team are MORE AND MORE CAPABLE OF DOING), we should still be able to assert our will and pull away in the 4th quarter, latest. If we continue to develop in the way that this squad, both offense AND defense, has shown it can and has continued to do so far, that is STILL the case. If we DON’T, well, then we were wrong about most of the things we THOUGHT we had begun to see in this team and its future. So let’s just go out and take care of business—then turn to NEXT WEEK’S game!

 

[Escambia94]

My prediction of 42-28 does not include Kyle Pitts. If I were to insert Pitts into my model I would predict a 48-21 victory. Vegas and the major sports pundits with more resources than me are thinking the same thing--the Gators win big with or without Pitts.

 

[DRU2012]

My prediction of 42-28 does not include Kyle Pitts. If I were to insert Pitts into my model I would predict a 48-21 victory. Vegas and the major sports pundits with more resources than me are thinking the same thing--the Gators win big with or without Pitts.

...and I hope and pray that things play out “according to Hoyle” (the “official” book-of-rules when it comes to CARD GAMES, by-the-way, in case you ever wondered). But you never know: The variables of health, climate, injury and dumb luck mean that “a few bounces”one way or the other could change EVERYTHING...As they say, “That’s why they play the games...”
So: I’d LOVE to see us CRUISE to what ends up LOOKING like an EASY win.
That would be such a RELIEF, for a change—but I’m NOT COUNTING ON IT, and I damn well HOPE that our players aren’t EITHER! I gotta believe the Coaching staff has their heads screwed on straight, have had them properly focused and primed to PEAK Saturday evening for kick-off in The Swamp. The main reason to “wish we had Pitts” is not so much because we NEED him in order to WIN this one, but because the better we can then relax and operate in our more and more “usual composed and efficient manner”—with our regular “reliable cast of characters”!
In other words, MY relative level of confidence is tied directly to the degree we seem prepared (as Tom Wolff quoted the test-pilot/“astronauts” in The Right Stuff) to “maintain an even strain”:
To remain calm and composed, trust their skills and training to TAKE CARE OF BUSINESS, get THE JOB done.
And that job, to WIN OUT, begins with facing, and BEATING, their old QB on Saturday.
Make no mistake: NONE of it, what’s come before and what’s beyond, good or bad, means ANYTHING if we don’t clip HIS new-found wings in OUR place this weekend. It’s a shame that circumstances prevent it from being the “home advantage” it should have been—but the fans who are fortunate enough to be there are in effect ALL-of-our AVATARS: They are the on-scene representatives and stand-ins for our enthusiastic support...THEY must pound, scream and BELLOW THE GATOR CHANTS, minute by minute, quarter by QUARTER...THIS is the kind of moment that our Head Coach has been priming them and ALL
of us for. And he was right; in the face of all his critics (mostly from other SEC cities and programs, by-the-way), Mullens has been trying to mobilize the fan base, most of all trying to get a “rise out of and an EDGE in” the Swamp Crowds:
It worked for A&M in College Station, and if he was envious, he had a right to be—At least giving Franks and his guys some difficulty on third (and FOURTH) downs would be the LEAST we could DO for OUR side! It is time we showed WE have that kind of moxie!

 

[Leakfan12]

No Pitts today and possibly out next week against Vandy.

 

[DRU2012]

No Pitts today and possibly out next week against Vandy.

Yep—just found out about it myself.
That’s a big loss for us, obviously—but NOT necessarily “fatal”. All depends on a combination of our depth and ability to truly apply the “next man up” philosophy in practical terms, AND our much-boosted “Coaching brain trust’s” true abilities in designing and implementing an effective game plan against an albeit “surging Razorbacks team”, led by a QB who the experts warn “knows us well”, is “familiar with our defense”—but the reverse is true as well, don’t forget...AND, he (Franks) is an emotional guy whom our Head Coach OUGHT to be able to “mess with” a little as well! If that gets to be at ALL of a “thing”, I look for our “collective stand-ins” in The Swamp to start giving HIM the “Sh’shing finger-to-the-lips” at him if and when he makes ANY kind of mistake!
But the MAIN thing, or maybe thingS, has to be how BOTH Gator squads, offense AND defense, performs out there today.
I REALLY wanna see a more “COMPLETE” game from the whole TEAM. Our D needs to have its best outing, and our RUNNING BACKS need to pick it up out there NOW. The O-line has been coming on, and may be about to spring our playmaker-RBs into the opponents’ secondaries. That would sure make our being without Pitts for a coupla weeks less worrisome (we sit him down now NEXT WEEK “just to be safe”, no matter what...But if he were “healthy enough” now we’d DEFINITELY play him—just his presence out there opens so many OTHER things up!).
As for how things are here in the REAL WORLD, with Pitts having been definitely ruled out for tonight’s game, it’s more a matter of having confirmed what I assume his Coaches and TEAMMATES assumed would be the likely case all week. So it shouldn’t have a large EMOTIONAL impact; no doubt he’ll be on the sideline out there at the Swamp tonight, rooting his brothers on and in particular sharing whatever practical and/or in-game emotional feedback, support and insights he might have over there. We have GOT to re-rise here and gat the job DONE—as much to show OURSELVES who we are and what we’ve GOT!
GO GATORS!!!
It is time we returned to form, reclaim our “regular spot” in competing for CHAMPIONSHIPS! Win THIS one, and we can ride our own self-fulfilling “vision of SUCCESS” through the following games in the coming weeks—get Pitts back fully healed and healthy, playing his way BACK to peak form, fresh and rested too as we approach the season’s climax in Atlanta!
But THAT’S just for US, OUR hopes and dreams beginning to coalesce into solid form—but I sure as HELL don’t want our TEAM to be thinking about ANYTHING TO DO WITH THAT YET!
No, we have just gotta hunker down and whip them at the point-of-attack. We DO have the “horses”—LET’S RIDE!

 

[Escambia94]

If the Gators cannot recover from an injury to Kyle Pitts, then they do not deserve to win the game. It is that simple. We either believe that Dan Mullen built a resilient, deeply talented team or he his like Jim McElwain and is only winning through smoke and mirrors. I believe Mullen built a good team that has obvious weaknesses in the running offense and all over defense, but it can endure through injuries to key players. Keep in mind that the Texas A&M team was much more talented than the Gator team in terms of recruiting stars, and that game was winnable. The only teams in the SEC that are more talented than Florida right now are Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama. Obviously any team can win on any given Saturday, but as a fan I am not worried about Arkansas. I am more worried about Arkansas than any regular season opponent on the schedule, but not worried about losing.

 

[DRU2012]

If the Gators cannot recover from an injury to Kyle Pitts, then they do not deserve to win the game. It is that simple. We either believe that Dan Mullen built a resilient, deeply talented team or he his like Jim McElwain and is only winning through smoke and mirrors. I believe Mullen built a good team that has obvious weaknesses in the running offense and all over defense, but it can endure through injuries to key players. Keep in mind that the Texas A&M team was much more talented than the Gator team in terms of recruiting stars, and that game was winnable. The only teams in the SEC that are more talented than Florida right now are Texas A&M, Georgia, and Alabama. Obviously any team can win on any given Saturday, but as a fan I am not worried about Arkansas. I am more worried about Arkansas than any regular season opponent on the schedule, but not worried about losing.

That about sums it up;
Either we “hold serve” and win, or we are not even as good as we have started to believe we are as of the last coupla weeks and (especially) the Georgia win.
Remember, after showing ANEMIC defense the first few games, which finally caught up to us against A&M, we were all pretty much agreed that unless things on THAT side got turned around in a hurry THIS season was gonna be a disappointing write-off.
Well, we seem to have “turned things around” (granted: with conditions and caveats) over there—and in typical Gator Nation fashion the same general “majority of fans” have gone from one over-reactive, under-appreciating extreme to the other: The TRUTH is somewhere in between.
Lots of analysis has been applied to understanding and explaining to OURSELVES how and WHY we (like a LOT of SEC squads) came in lagging on defense (after no spring ball and much-truncated summer practice playing its similar part in practically ALL our programs), then (depending on personnel, health, luck and COACHING) to varying degrees, successful or NOT, scrambled to get our defenses to catch up to more advanced-in-development OFFENSES.
As for US, with the remainder of our scheduled games (ESPECIALLY tonight’s game, with all its elusive situational and EMOTIONAL factors) it is mainly a matter of COMPLACENCY that could threaten us from here: WE are potentially “our own worst enemies”.
So in the end, I must agree: Strip away “all THAT”, and we should win handily in the Swamp tonight, then go on to win-OUT and face the Tide in Atlanta Dec 19 with just the one loss—and I won’t get into THAT “can’o’WORMS” (regarding being ranked ahead of A&M at that point “DESPITE the head-to-head”!)—only to say in passing that as long as we keep WINNING, the rest will take care of itself! (We HOPE.)
Or, to continue to beat my latest favorite “dead horse”:
“Just WIN, baby!”

 

[DRU2012]

OK—Here we go (over on ESPN News for now—until the Colorado vs Stanford game ends).
And we are looking a bit slow here at first...and I am ALREADY sick of hearing again how we “are missing our best player (Kyle Pitts)”...”and don’t know when we’ll get him back!”
Shouldn’t make TOO much difference against Vandy (they are replaying the HIT on Pitts AGAIN!)—but COULD here today.
Would REALLY like to see us SHUT EVERYONE UP EARLY in this one!
We are driving methodically down the field now: It is first and goal at the eight.
Still don’t have a POWER running game—but run it in nonetheless!
TD Gators!

 

[DRU2012]

Would love to see us sack Filipe a few times this next series (Razorbacks’ first with the ball).

 

[Escambia94]

DBU sure got burned on that one with a simple go route.

 

[DRU2012]

I don’t believe how tense I am for this one now. Waited all day, now can hardly watch. Damn!!! Long TD pass from Franks. He used to miss those half the time with us. Grantham should have had Elam (and a cover safety over top) ready for that—I knew something like that was coming first drive!
This is exactly what I was afraid of:
Instead of getting ‘em down and KEEPING them there, we have given them HOPE and provided an opportunity for Inspiration!
Come ON, GATORS!
Time to step on the GAS!

 

[Escambia94]

Sophomore DB Kaiir Elam needs to flip around more quickly.

 

[DRU2012]

I might just go for a walk.
Our offense came out ready and so far is holding its own: But our D definitely DID NOT.
We need to be careful about slowing play down—they will do just the opposite.
Oops—lucky bounce into OUR guy’s arms!
Damn—missed the 4th and short!
We can DRIVE on these guys, but now they will go for another bomb.
Gotta get it BACK.
If we don’t, I may have to bow out for a bit... We just had our SECOND “key failure” here.
Couple more next few moments and this could get away from us. I do NOT like how thus is trending—and if it doesn’t turn our way soon (after the officials MISSED the facemask on Trask that SHOULD have given us 1st and goal inside the five), maybe we ARE over-rated after all. Now a call AGAINST us!
Oh oh. We MUST compose ourselves.
Get the ball back and get that score back!

 

[DRU2012]

GEEZ! Franks damn near ran for the first on 3rd and 10! End of quarter.
Will they REALLY go for it on 4th an 1/2 a yard? Probably WILL—and probably make it; but WILL give us a chance to turn it around here too.
I HATE that we are locked in a “struggle” this close AT HOME with these guys.
I suppose they’ll get this...NO!
Alright: Let’s take it IN this time!