Week 10: #8 Florida Gators 44, #5 Georgia Bulldogs 28 - 11/7/2020

[Escambia94]

It is time for the 2020 edition of the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party! On Saturday, November 7, 2020, day 234 of the COVID-19 pandemic, the cocktail party will be a bit different because of the coronavirus, but many things will remain the same. The SEC East will be decided on this day. For the third year in a row, both teams enter the match-up ranked.

The Bulldogs lead the all-time series 52-43-2 going back to November 6, 1915. Kirby Smart is 2-0 against Dan Mullen, going a combined 60-34 in those two matchups. Georgia is favored by 3 and the o/u is 52.5.

The Gators are coming off a convincing 41-17 beatdown of the Missouri Tigers in their COVID-19 bounce-back game. Florida tallied 514 yards total, with 345 in the air and 169 on the ground. Georgia's defense is one of the best in the nation, and they are coming off a low-scoring 14-3 game where the Bulldogs held Kentucky to 229 total yards and zero touchdowns. The Gators' offensive strength in the passing game is also the Bulldogs' defensive strength. The Bulldogs have proven that they can go toe-to-toe with a far superior Alabama offense, as they were leading the Tide by 4 going into halftime. The keys to a Bulldog victory will be the run game and the pass defense. If the Bulldogs can follow the Texas A&M template and keep Florida under 10 possessions and 23 first downs, it will be up to Florida to conjure up a running game of its own to balance its explosive plays in the air. The Gators have the #6 total offense, and the Bulldogs have the #54 total offense. The Bulldogs have the #13 total defense, and the Gators have the #66 total defense.

The Gators will likely need to score 41 points to compensate for their lack of defense.

• @ Ole Miss 51-35
• vs SC 38-24
• @ #21 TAMU 38-41
• vs MIZ 41-17

The Bulldogs have shown that they can keep up with Alabama for a half, and that they can beat anyone else with just two TDs and that they can keep opponents not named Alabama at 21 or fewer.

• @ ARK 37-10
• vs #7 AUB 27-6
• vs #14 TENN 44-21
• @ #2 BAMA 24-41
• @ UK 14-3

In order to predict the Florida-Georgia game, we can look at the flow of the Georgia-Alabama game. If the Gators can follow the Alabama script, they have a chance to come away with a victory. Florida and Alabama are very similar on paper despite very different styles of offense.

Alabama 41 vs Georgia 24, 10/17/2020
Alabama: 33 1st downs, 564 total yards, 417 passing yards, 24/33 comp/att, 147 rushing yards, 43 attempts, 1 TO, 33:59 TOP
Georgia: 20 1st downs, 414 total yards, 269 passing yards, 18/40 comp/att, 145 rushing yards, 30 attempts, 3 TOs, 26:01 TOP

• Alabama 1 play, 0 yards, 0:14, interception
• Georgia 3 plays, 10 yards, 0:38, interception
• Alabama 3 plays, 58 yards, 0:52, touchdown
• Georgia 3 plays, -13 yards, 2:09, punt
• Alabama 4 plays, 25 yards, 1:58, punt
• Georgia 5 plays, 14 yards, 2:08, punt
• Alabama 6 plays, 20 yards, 2:28, punt
• Georgia 8 plays, 57 yards, 2:40, touchdown
• Alabama 5 plays, 28 yards, 1:51, punt
• Georgia 2 plays, 86 yards, 0:13, touchdown
• Alabama 13 plays, 60 yards, 5:49, field goal
• Georgia 10 plays, 44 yards, 3:18, field goal
• Alabama 6 plays, 75 yards, 2:36, touchdown
• Georgia 12 plays, 66 yards, 2:43, touchdown
• Alabama 5 plays, 41 yards, 0:23, end of half
• Georgia 5 plays, 17 yards, 2:49, punt
• Alabama 8 plays, 49 yards, 3:40, punt
• Georgia 7 plays, 34 yards, 3:42, punt
• Alabama 2 plays, 91 yards, 0:49, touchdown
• Georgia 5 plays, 46 yards, 1:11, interception
• Alabama 5 plays, 56 yards, 1:58, touchdown
• Georgia 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:03, interception
• Alabama 5 plays, 56 yards, 1:58, touchdown
• Georgia 3 plays, 4 yards, 1:03, interception
• Alabama 10 plays, 45 yards, 5:16, touchdown
• Georgia 9 plays, 50 yards, 3:27, missed field goal
• Alabama 10 plays, 43 yards, 6:05, end of game

Florida will need to avoid interceptions, because the Georgia defense is among the best in takeaways. Florida will also need to make second-half adjustments if they are behind at the end of the second quarter. Florida will also need to come out firing on all cylinders early in the game in order to avoid falling too far behind as they have in the past couple games.

Florida and Georgia do not have common opponents to compare, but it is worth looking at Florida's and Alabama's performances against Missouri.

Alabama 38 vs Missouri 19 9/26/2020
Alabama: 22 1st downs, 414 total yards, 303 passing yards, 23/32 comp/att, 111 rushing yards, 36 attempts, 1 TO, 31:25 TOP
Missouri: 20 1st downs, 322 total yards, 322 passing yards, 26/39 comp/att, 69 rushing yards, 34 attempts, 2 TOs, 28:35 TOP

Florida 41 vs Missouri 17 10/31/2020
Florida: 25 1st downs, 514 total yards, 345 passing yards, 21/36 comp/att, 169 rushing yards, 35 attempts, 2 TOs, 33:00 TOP
Missouri: 16 1st downs, 248 total yards, 208 passing yards, 26/40 comp/att, 40 rushing yards, 23 attempts, 2 TOs, 27:00 TOP

By the transitive property, the Gators could beat the Bulldogs 41-24. Factoring in the strengths and weaknesses of these teams I predict a 31-24 victory for the Gators, but I could also see a 21-14 victory for the Bulldogs.

 

[DRU2012]

( @Escambia94, )
EXCELLENT Job, once again, E—:
More important intro than EVER in this YEAR’S edition of “The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” (STILL, and always WILL be its name far as I’M concerned—How bout we just henceforth refuse, as fans, to refer to it as ANYTHING ELSE??!)...
And AS for the game, THIS IS IT:
Our last chance, in spite of everything that’s happened and all the ups, downs, breakthroughs and setbacks, to turn it all around, establish who and what we are and where, as a team we are headed.
Win this, and we are back on track, never mind all the bumps and bruises, the myriad frustrations and disappointments that have left us coming up short in unpredictable ways.
Pull THIS one out somehow, no matter WHAT the final score, and we pivot and DRIVE for the SEC Championship game against The Tide—the one likely constant in this otherwise WEIRDEST of STRANGE “Season of the Pandemic”.
At this point, no matter WHAT, I have NO idea of or feel for what we’ll show out there tomorrow. Just a LITTLE further improvement on BOTH squads, offense AND defense, and I believe we can knock over a Georgia team as banged up and generally missing as many pieces as we’ll likely be.
That’s based as much on EMOTIONAL factors (courtesy of Dan Mullens, circumstances and the way his team has reacted in COMING TOGETHER since that late hit on Trask and ensuing brawl at the half last week) as anything else:
It will in retrospect I believe turn out to be either our “last gasp” or “turning point for our homestretch run” in 2020.
We’ll know which in less than 24 hours.

 

[DRU2012]

...no matter WHAT, the general feeling, the “Vibe”, if you will, appears to be one of “probably still an edge to UGA in this one”...I am filled with trepidation: It hasn’t “gone our way” very often or very far last few years, after all.
But it’s time to set all that aside (at least TRY) and just settle down, settle back—and see what happens, oh my brothers!
(As so MANY of our fellow alumni from all over America are texting me this morning/early aft (have gotten SEVERAL just while composing this post!): “GO GATORS!!!”
Indeed...”EAT ‘EM UP!!!”

 

[DRU2012]

WTF??!
I tune in less than a minute into the Cirst qrtr and we are already DOWN 7 pts??!
That is what canNOT happen—and fact that it DID may well mean an early channel change for THIS Gator.
Either we turn this around pronto or the rest of this season is “PREseason” for the NONseniors on THIS Gator team...
We look “off”—“off” rhythm, “off” balance, off” our game, just generally “off”.
Touchdown pass, Georgia.
Not our day, guys.
Not our year.
We’ve seen all this before.
When do we
(1)PASS this Bulldog team?
(2)Finally, fully and consistently step forward as an ELITE SQUAD??!
I gotta back away. This hurts too much; not a surprise if we lose, so much—but that we came out so flat and have done NOTHING—on EITHER side of the ball!
For the THIRD year in a roll we fall behind two scores EARLY.
CHANGES ARE REQUIRED, Coach Dan; YOU can see it better than ANYONE.
Don’t know if we can get back in this one...but I DON’T have a good feeling about it: Am afraid the fatal errors have already been MADE.

 

[DRU2012]

Well, there’s one back, anyway.
Think I’ll shut up and back off here for awhile, at LEAST.

 

[DRU2012]

And we IMMEDIATELY give back most of the field on the ensuing Kick Off!
I just can’t WATCH this.
We were just not ready to PLAY here, it seems. That HAS to change in the course of the rest of THIS season—as we “recharge and RESET” heading into 2021! But we can’t even seem to get it going and KEEP it going here so far.
Our PLAYMAKERS have GOT to step up, insistently come THROUGH for us from here on if we are to get back into it.

 

[DRU2012]

Despite EVERYTHING, we do have a chance here now—a “PUNCHER’S CHANCE”, after all.

 

[DRU2012]

Well, hasn’t been pretty—but we aren’t done yet. Tied at the end of one; after what we saw in the first PART of that quarter, ya gotta take SOME solace to find us all tied up and getting the BALL.
I’m TEMPTED to go away, do something ELSE for awhile.

 

[DRU2012]

Now, we throw it away.
Damn. Not Trask’s best choice OR throw. See ya, boys.
That was the freshman reciever’s faukt, mainly—he clearly didn’t know the route. But on 3rd and 10 after TWO questionable running plays, we set ourselves UP for that. We are literally beating OURSELVES!
Sigh. This is a good, but not GREAT Gator team—and we all KNOW it.
Painful watching it so clearly demonstrated.
Am inclined to maybe watch Star Wars (“A New Hope”, of course)—I find it soothing, normally, and between this game and the election, I REALLY NEED that...but of COURSE Wright takes it 50 yards—then Pitts catches the 25 yarder for the touchdown!
So: Still tied. LOL...This is WILD, no matter WHAT happens.

 

[DRU2012]

Well, this IS “one RESILIENT Florida Team!”...Can we stay close and be the last to score? Only WAY we might ultimately TAKE this one, perhaps.

 

[DRU2012]

But once again, I am suffering “alone in the dark” (or WILL BE, once the sun sets—for now, “alone in my room with the shades drawn”...hard to be TOO angry at this Gator team; I really don’t think they have all their tools OR their health OR the matching man power in the FIRST place yet: We can challenge them, but I sense they will outdistance us by the final gun. The ONLY way we can beat this Bulldog team is for our PLAYMAKERS TO STEP UP—especially on DEFENSE: IF they can get a coupla turnovers, a scoop’n’score and/or pick-SIX, or at least a timely possession-flip or two in the second half, well, MAYBE we can somehow pull this one out at the very end. But we’re still not quite as good as them...

 

[DRU2012]

But I still think maybe the LEAST painful way to watch this one might be to go away for a while, come back in the 4th quarter to see what’s happened, what WILL happen.
God, I hope Pitts is OK: Like it or not, that WAS “Targeting”, by the rules currently written and applied. He took a hard, even VICIOUS hit to the head.
I don’t have to tell y’all how important Pitts is to ANY Gator future right now.
But meanwhile, his replacement just hauled in a TD pass instead!
We are ahead. Whattaya know?

 

[DRU2012]

This has been one HELL of a story already—after less than a HALF!
If we can GET to the half with a lead, I might STILL back off, lay low til the 4th quarter at LEAST.
Pitts walking to the locker room for “head injury protocol”...unless he clears, he won’t be back. I doubt we can win w as it bout him: even as just a decoy, he influences play.
Still, all in all, these Gators have hung in there, responded.

 

[DRU2012]

Trask is hot again now.

 

[DRU2012]

Not so sure you wanna hand off to Toney deep that way...but Pierce bails them out.

 

[DRU2012]

That’s the trouble with switching QBs:
That happens almost EVERY TIME THEY CHANGE OFF!

 

[DRU2012]

We are now starting to miss Pitts out there. DAMNIT!!!
Will he be BACK today?
They intended to go for the fg all along—but if Pitts were out there, they woulda tried for the pass on that 3rd down play—and possibly even 4th down—even WITH our Kicker!

 

[DRU2012]

I wish to HELL Pitts were ok.
I just wonder if we can WIN here WITHOUT him for the 2nd half.
Not with OUR D.
And now “IF ONLY WE HAD PITTS”!

 

[DRU2012]

Of course, if we CAN keep scoring this way, we should be OK...but they have the half to scheme how to stop us WITHOUT doubling on Pitts—making their jobs a LOT easier, it would seem.
But we are now up by 17 points, and get the ball to start the 3rd. If we can control the ball and play some defense, WE CAN WIN THIS THING and maybe get to the NEXT “Big One”—against Bama in Atlanta in December...a WHOLE lotta play between here and there, though—and meanwhile, let’s just get through THIS one. No
More injuries, Kyle Pitts shaken but “ok”, and AT MOST missed just the 2nd half here, “as a precaution”.
You’d LIKE to think that we could hold this lead WITHOUT Pitts—Rather HAVE him, clearly, but that isn’t a ridiculously large requirement...If we can’t manage THAT, we probably weren’t gonna “win
out” from here ANYWAY.
I WISH they’d give us a proper, in-depth report on his status and outlook right now. But meanwhile, it is as much up to our Defense to hold us IN this one.
They will come right AT us: So the offense has to stay aggressive too.
We keep playing in the 3rd quarter like we did in the 2nd, and we WIN THIS THING running out the clock in the FOURTH.

 

[DRU2012]

But I’m alone again.
So until that changes, well, “So far, so GOOD”.