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Time To Turn the Page

DRU2012

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...and that starts with ME.
So I am DONE: I am getting off the “F*** Grantham”-Bandwagon. At least the loud and persistent, repetitive sloganeering aspects.
I mean, “OK—His contract is up after this season. Mullen stuck with him this year after a historically BAD 2020, and this is the longest he (Grantham) has been with ANYONE since an Assistant with Virginia Tech, his alma mater.”
Our Coach DOESN’T publicly pass-the-buck, so when it comes to “The Future”, we’ve got to just more or less ACCEPT a certain silence and seeming inaction as far as his plans for AFTER this one.
Unless there is some kind of sudden, startling wave of dramatic improvement (starting with a big win on Saturday, and carrying this team satisfactorily through the rest of 2021), there will no doubt be SOME sort of CHANGE—And it will BEGIN on Defense.
Either way, for now it’s clearly “wait-and-see” time. I’m not sure exactly when or how it will materialize, but it IS on the way.
Sure: By now we are impatient for it—I mean, we’ve watched in frustration and disappointment as our whole season, entered with such hope and anticipation, quickly and steadily deteriorated...Dreams gone, at best “put-on-ICE” for ANOTHER year—by early OCTOBER!
“Now what?!!”
Well, we are about to find out...
But it won’t likely BE in any kind of “quick fix” fashion: Not our Coach’s “Way”.
I suppose I am finally resigned to “riding this out”—mainly because we have little CHOICE:
That’s the way he is going to do this—HIS way.
So “here we go”. “Who” we are and “Where we’re going” to be determined as much by events and changes ongoing NOW—“behind the scenes”, as they say...and soon to be viewed “at a stadium-near-YOU” (Um, well, you get the idea...”a TV near you”, at the very least!).
I’m sorry to sound flippant; but a certain “patient resignation” is about the best outlook I can manage right now—Otherwise I’d be ready to throw-in-the-towel entirely! Fact is, I was already THERE, and felt it was time to either find some way OUT of the “downward emotional spiral”.
So here we are. No predictions, dire or otherwise.
“Let’s see what HAPPENS” the rest of the way—and what in fact ensues as a result, in the aftermath of all that.
 

DRU2012

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For this year for sure, after that who knows and that's the scary part.
“For sure” on BOTH counts...
How do you feel as we head into “The Cocktail Party” now, LF? I am somewhat sheepish to admit that even in the middle of this “washout of a season”, a part of me (in SPITE of myself) secretly still hopes for a “win” in Jacksonville—if only to remind EVERYONE “who we ARE”, and where we stood just weeks ago—and maybe where we could be once more just as quickly and dramatically as our “FALL” has been!
Cannot say I am “EXPECTING” it—but there is that all-Gator PART of me that just KNOWS that the “Fightin’/Won’t-Back-Down” part is still there, team- wide and just under the surface throughout the team in the hearts of players and staff alike—starting at the TOP with our Coach and extending throughout Gator Nation.
A part of me HATES that I cling to that; but the rest of me just cannot let go.
Just ONCE, can we NOT see “logic” and “likely” go out the window? Can not “reality” be tossed aside, and hope instead prevail??!
 

DRU2012

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For this year for sure, after that who knows and that's the scary part.
...Meanwhile, we lose ANOTHER commit, this one AGAIN on Defense as well!
Between, barely “Alright” recruiting year-by-year in the first place, itself more of less “retrieved” by Mullen’s facility with “the transfer portal”, losing our highest-rated recruits (both on defense, too) before we even finish out the schedule just doesn’t bode well.
Do you, does ANYONE get the feeling that things are “trending UP”??!
Not ME...On the contrary.
I am TRYING to be as “upbeat” as I can manage heading into The Party, but instead it’s crap like this, right after our “BYE-Week” too! I know MULLEN himself was under continued extended recruiting restriction from years back, restrained from going on the road to make personal visits right through until this Friday (tomorrow) at midnight, but you’d think that this could have been anticipated and compensated for somehow...
(Sorry—just my disappointment and frustration coming through, all adding up to more of that overall “sinking sensation in my gut”).
God, do we ever need a WIN on Saturday—no matter HOW unlikely that may seem...
(However:
No use beating on THAT one.)
 

Escambia94

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I am normally an optimist, but things do not look so sunny for the Gator program. Gosh, I hate having to go through this "we suck again" routine every few years.
 

DRU2012

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I am normally an optimist, but things do not look so sunny for the Gator program. Gosh, I hate having to go through this "we suck again" routine every few years.
Agreed. You understand:
Can’t say I “Like” it, but by the same token there’s no denying it either, much as I may “wish and hope” otherwise.
Unfortunately, I cannot mount a viable argument that counters your assessment.
All we have left in the way of “hope” at this point is that somehow we get SOME sort of sign, some outcome or occurrence, something seemingly “out-of-the-blue” that presents hint, clue or evidence to that effect.
Something as sudden and solid as the kinds of things that have assailed us from all directions in NEGATIVE fashion of late!
I don’t, WON’T dare to suggest the sort of thing I’m referring to...I’ve already done more of that than I care to.
But SATURDAY would be a good time for one.
(File the above under “Not convinced I shouldn’t be laughing at myself derisively”.)
 

DRU2012

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The only saving grace is that we are not as bad as FSU, but how long until we get there?
OMG—I hadn’t gone that far in my thinking!
Are we headed THERE?
Honestly, is it only now a matter of time?
I ask you now, frankly and honestly, @Escambia94, :
Can you bring your analytical talents to bear on this specific question?
What is the true likelihood of this coming to pass?
And more to the point,
what moves are to be made, what forces brought to bear to AVOID it—to somehow bring our careening program BACK ON TRACK??!

I am still trying to catch up with it: How far and fast it all got away from us this season.
I suppose we should have anticipated the possibility when our Coach decided to “let it all ride” with Grantham remaining in the DC position (and little change in recruiting) after last year.
You’d have at least thought Coach would have seen it—but it isn’t clear even now that he STILL has “A Plan For Dramatic CHANGE”.
“A few small tweaks” just won’t be enough now—even I can see that!
Now, there’s a “school of thought” that says “if he puts AR15 in there as full-time starter in 2022, gets an ace-defensive guy to shore things up on THAT side of the ball, and somehow pulls off a coupla “rabbits-from-the-hat” in recruiting here next couple/few months, then we could rise again like Orgeron and LSU did with Burrows coupla seasons back...
Two things there:
(1) Those are some pretty major “IF”s, and
(2) We WERE “building” towards “rejoining the elite”, I recall...Now we’re grasping at some vain hope that maybe we can pull off some sudden, unexpectedly flukey season or two of success before sinking back to a “long rebuild” for good? Is that really what it has all come down to?
The only thing I myself can offer at this point is the meager thought that maybe, just maybe, Mullen HAS a plan, that he’ll have us finishing this season with pride and on an upward surge, will make some strong moves and have us back in the thick of things NEXT year.
Yeah, pretty weak—considering where we are standing here and now today.
Anything you can offer in the way of “hope for more” would be much appreciated now...
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
Here is a quick look at college football in the Sunshine State:

The Mighty Gators are currently teetering at 4-3 (2-3 SEC) with #1 Georgia (7-0, 5-0 SEC), South Carolina (4-4, 1-4 SEC), Samford (3-4, 2-3 SoCon), Missouri (3-4, 0-3 SEC), and FSU (3-2, 2-2 ACC) remaining on the schedule. Assuming Dan Mullen has not lost control over this team, the Gators should finish the season 8-4 (4-4 SEC). I could see the Gators going 7-5 (3-5 SEC), which would suck, but would be better than 6-6 (2-6 SEC).

FSU is currently 3-2 (2-2 ACC) with Clemson (4-3, 3-2 ACC), NC State (5-2, 2-1 ACC), Boston College (4-3, 0-3 ACC), and Florida (4-3, 2-3 SEC) as potential losses. I predict FSU will finish 4-8 (2-6 ACC) with their only win coming against Boston College, but they could pull an upset in there (hopefully not against Florida, obviously).

Miami is currently 3-4 (1-2 ACC) with #17 Pitt (6-1, 3-0 ACC), Georgia Tech (3-4, 2-3 ACC), Virginia Tech (3-4, 1-2 ACC), and Duke (3-4, 0-3 ACC) on the schedule and all winnable. I think they lose to Pitt, win out, and finish 7-5 (5-3 ACC).

In terms of recruiting Florida is trending in the wrong direction for the 2022 class, while FSU is beginning to surpass us. Miami is going into the trash can. I think Dan Mullen is running out of excuses rummaging through the transfer portal to compensate for recruiting. Nothing against the transfers, but Florida is running out of former 5-star and high-4-star athletes in the portal and they need to figure out recruiting. I get the impression that one reason Florida, FSU, and Miami are all having problems recruiting is that high school recruits in the Sunshine State have all been picked over by Alabama, Georgia, and others.


I know that I tend to lean towards "sunshine pumper" and less towards "Debbie Downer", but with Georgia looking like a program that has arrived, I am not so confident in the Florida program even with Dan Mullen at the helm. Nothing against Dan Mullen, but he is no Urban Meyer. What is most depressing is that there are no other coaches in the caliber of Urban Meyer in the NCAA right now, meaning an up-and-coming NCAA head coach with recruiting prowess, a growing coaching tree, and an ability to grow his network of coaches. Dan Mullen is the best coach for Florida right now, and if he does not fix recruiting, fix defensive coaching, and hire an OC in the calber of Brian Johnson, the Gators are going to be at best the #2 team in the SEC East.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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Recruiting:

Georgia
2023 #2
2022 #1
2021 #4
2020 #1
2019 #2
2018 #1

Florida
2023 #6 (consistent since September 2021)
2022 #22 (down from #19 since September 2021)
2021 #12 (composite #8 with transfers)
2020 #9 (composite #8 with transfers)
2019 #9 (composite #8 with transfers)
2018 #14 (hypothetical #8 without academic or medical disqualification)
2017 #11

FSU
2023 #7
2022 #13
2021 #22
2020 #22
2019 #18
2018 #11
2017 #6

Miami
2023 #27
2022 #60
2021 #11
2020 #17
2019 #27
2018 #8
2017 #12

Meanwhile Georgia has finished #1 or #2 in recruiting from 2018-now (other than a #4 ranking in 2021) without leaning on transfers. I am not saying that it is time to fire Dan Mullen. Dan Mullen does have a no-show penalty imposed on him from last year that continues through this December. This penalty stems from him texting high school recruits while in the Seattle area outside of permissible NCAA recruiting windows in December 2020. It is implied that Brian Johnson was the unnamed coach that committed the majority of the violations, but it could have been another coach.
 
Last edited:

Escambia94

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Before we pile onto Dan Mullen, let us look at some issues out of his control. For one, Florida's academic standards really are an issue with recruiting. In 2019, the Gators lost 4-star and 5-star athletes like WR Arjei Henderson, OL Deyavie Hammon, OT Wardwick Wilson, and ILB Diwun Black to academics. That could have been a top-5 class, especially if they could have pulled 5-star S Daxon Hill (Tulsa, OK) away from Michigan, and 4-star/5-star QB Jalon Jones had not been a thug. 2020 was not quite as dramatic, but it did have similar recruiting issues due to academics.
 

Escambia94

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The Gator defense is predicated on Todd Grantham's ability to scheme and conceal some weaknesses in talent. His defensive rankings compared to Georgia's defense since 2018, or compared to Florida's defense when Grantham was at Mississippi State, Louisville, and Georgia:
  • 2021 #12 overall, #32 defensive drive efficiency (DDE), #19 defensive points per drive (DPD), #28 defensive yards per play (DPP); Georgia is #1 across the board in all statistical categories.
  • 2020 #55 overall, #72 DDE, #62 DPD, #67 DPP; Georgia's rankings were about #12-#24 across the board.
  • 2019 #16 overall, #21 DDE, #22 DPD, #18 DPP; Georgia's rankings were about #3-#4 across the board.
  • 2018 #13 overall, #31 DDE, #33 DPD, #39 DPP; Georgia's rankings were about #9-#24 across the board.
  • 2017 #10 overall, #21 DDE, #27 DPD, #61 DPP (This is Grantham's performance at Mississippi State.)
    • For comparison Florida under DC Randy Shannon: 2017 #43 overall, #52 DDE, #61 DPD, #72 DPP; Georgia's rankings were about #4-#11 across the board.
  • 2016 #14 overall, #10 DDE, #15 DPD, #10 DPP (Louisville)
    • For comparison Florida under DC Geoff Collins and Randy Shannon was ranked #6-#9 across the board)
  • 2015 #26 overall, #29 DDE, #29 DPD, #24 DPP (Louisville)
    • For comparison Florida under DC Geoff Collins and Randy Shannon was ranked #12-#14 across the board)
  • 2014 #7 overall, #3 DDE, #10 DPD, #11 DPP (Louisville)
    • For comparison Florida under DC DJ Durkin was ranked #4-#13 across the board)
  • 2013 #63 overall, #93 DDE, #92 DPD, #63 DPP (Georgia)
    • For comparison Florida under DC DJ Durkin was ranked #5-#33 across the board)
  • 2012 #12 overall, #16 DDE, #12 DPD, #28 DPP (Georgia)
    • For comparison Florida under DC Dan Quinn was ranked #2-#8 across the board)
  • 2011 #5 overall, #4 DDE, #6 DPD, #5 DPP (Georgia)
    • For comparison Florida under DC Dan Quinn was ranked #7-#25 across the board)
What this tells me is that perhaps we are a bit hard on Todd Grantham. He really is a top-tier coach--specifically a top-25 coach with occasional swings into the top 10 or the middle 50. I think the chicken-and-egg problem is rearing its ugly head with respect to recruiting and defensive coaching. Todd Grantham tends to have a top-15 defense alternating with years where it flounders around #50-#60. Compare that to earlier Gator defensive coordinators Dan Quinn, DJ Durkin, and Geoff Collins who kept the Florida defense in the top 25 even in 4-7 and 4-8 seasons. He is better than Randy Shannon who kept his teams around the mid-#50s.
 

DRU2012

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Recruiting:

Georgia
2023 #2
2022 #1
2021 #4
2020 #1
2019 #2
2018 #1

Florida
2023 #6 (consistent since September 2021)
2022 #22 (down from #19 since September 2021)
2021 #12 (composite #8 with transfers)
2020 #9 (composite #8 with transfers)
2019 #9 (composite #8 with transfers)
2018 #14 (hypothetical #8 without academic or medical disqualification)
2017 #11

FSU
2023 #7
2022 #13
2021 #22
2020 #22
2019 #18
2018 #11
2017 #6

Miami
2023 #27
2022 #60
2021 #11
2020 #17
2019 #27
2018 #8
2017 #12

Meanwhile Georgia has finished #1 or #2 in recruiting from 2018-now (other than a #4 ranking in 2021) without leaning on transfers. I am not saying that it is time to fire Dan Mullen. Dan Mullen does have a no-show penalty imposed on him from last year that continues through this December. This penalty stems from him texting high school recruits while in the Seattle area outside of permissible NCAA recruiting windows in December 2020. It is implied that Brian Johnson was the unnamed coach that committed the majority of the violations, but it could have been another coach.
Yikes, what a depressingly clear set of statistical arguments; but they do all add up:
In short, we’re screwed—with little hope for any change-for-the-better ahead!
You go on to temper your critique of Mullen and Co. somewhat, E—, but the fact still remains: That all only adds up to “not entirely his or their fault”...Not exactly a fountain of hope in THAT.
And that’s what we are all casting about for now:
Some sense of, some REASON TO HOPE!
I got nuthin’.
Anyone? ANYTHING?
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
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It all comes down to recruiting and coaching. Specifically with recruiting it is the recruiting probation December 2020 through December 2021 Recruiting is the life blood of any program.

Specifically with coaching Mullen and Grantham cannot put together a good day of offense and defense in the same game.

Dan Mullen’s teams have no margin to exploit, so everything has to line up or else it all falls apart at once.
 

DRU2012

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It all comes down to recruiting and coaching. Specifically with recruiting it is the recruiting probation December 2020 through December 2021 Recruiting is the life blood of any program.

Specifically with coaching Mullen and Grantham cannot put together a good day of offense and defense in the same game.

Dan Mullen’s teams have no margin to exploit, so everything has to line up or else it all falls apart at once.
So:
Are there a realistic set of circumstances under which we recover and resume that “rise/return to greatness”—and do so under MULLEN’S leadership?
The “probation” has played its part in all of this, but is it the KEY PART?
So many “cracks” have been revealed in its structure.
And as you imply here, bad as Grantham’s guidance (or lack there of) has been, he HASN’T been the sole problem this season. Had we HAD a defense we would have done much better, would have WON at LEAST half the games we ended up losing—in other words merely DISGUISED some of the weakness and rot.
As it is, there is no place for ANYONE to hide!
Looking back, LAST SEASON was probably our one big (Orgeron/Burrows-at-LSU) chance at a sudden grab-for-the-ring—and THAT only happened because our “Great QB-Developer” was FORCED to put Kyle Trask, otherwise deemed “distant backup”, into the “QB-1” role, and adapt his offense accordingly...It was only THEN, with assorted other parts in place at the time, did he suddenly find himself with a powerful passing offense (NOT his “normal style”, by-the-way) that, had he had even a passable defense, would have MADE the CFP round and maybe even gone all the way.
As things stand, I just don’t foresee him getting us even THAT “close” (and in truth, it WASN’T “that close”) again...
Certainly not with Grantham in charge of the defense, and not WITHOUT a huge upgrade in recruiting—starting NOW. More like “YESTERDAY”.
But his own pride and stubbornness I fear is in his own way. I like Mullen, WANT him to prove me wrong.
Seldom have I SO wanted to be wrong. But it’s a long way back, and time is against him, us, ALL OF IT.
Hate to say it, but I just don’t see all this ending any way but “slowly and badly”.
 

Escambia94

Aerospace Cubicle Engineer (ACE)
Moderator
I will turn the question around. Who can do a better job than Dan Mullen at Florida? Mullen is the best guy for the job. Nick Saban, Bill Belechik, or the ghost of Knute Rockne are not coming to Gainesville.
 

DRU2012

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I will turn the question around. Who can do a better job than Dan Mullen at Florida? Mullen is the best guy for the job. Nick Saban, Bill Belechik, or the ghost of Knute Rockne are not coming to Gainesville.
Ya got me there, bra’.
My answer today is unchanged from what it’s been for some time:
“I know, I know, I KNOW!!!”
Or, put another way:
“I have no friggin’ IDEA!”

(...However, that does raise another stark question:
“Is the ABSENCE of a currently viable alternative the only thing PROTECTING Dan Mullen’s job???”)
 

DRU2012

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I'm tempted to say bring back Urban Meyer but then again I don't want to back that road plus I highly doubt we him anywhere near coeds.
What we “NEED” of course is the NEXT “Urban Meyer”!
And we’ll probably have to “hold our noses” if/when we were to find him, too...
Again: “Nice guys finish last!”
Whomever he is, he’ll almost certainly be one of these strange, antisocial overachievers—just gotta “roll the dice” and hope he’s more the Nick Saban, rub-ya-the-wrong-way, rather than one of the many Break-all-the-Rules types out there, you feel me?
That’s why Mullen’s various onfield and after-game antics (especially in the face of LAST season’s mid-to-late-season’s team-wide meltdowns) didn’t worry me like some others.
If anything, that struck ME as “a GOOD sign”!
What bothers me NOW is that it all DOESN’T seem to be affecting Coach nearly enough!
I’d have PREFERRED to see him all riled up, reacting badly to both play AND postgame questions.
 

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